Anyone Buying Radio Stock Today?

[RoddyFreeman]

Radio as we know it is dead. It's all podcasts now.

I wouldn't go quite that far. According to the 2019 Share of Ear by Edison Research, AM and FM radio had a 44% share of listening among persons 13+. The #2 source was streaming audio with a 16% share. Podcasts had a 4% share of listening.

That said, in 2014 AM and FM radio had a 51% share, streaming audio had 11% and podcasts had 2%.

 

[davideduardo]

I wouldn't go quite that far. According to the 2019 Share of Ear by Edison Research, AM and FM radio had a 44% share of listening among persons 13+. The #2 source was streaming audio with a 16% share. Podcasts had a 4% share of listening.

And we should remember that teens have not been a radio station target for 30 to 40 years; even CHR targets 18-34 and 25-44 women, not youth.

So take them out, and take over 60 year olds out, radio has even greater share of listening because that is the group radio targets.

 

[TheBigA]

That said, in 2014 AM and FM radio had a 51% share, streaming audio had 11% and podcasts had 2%.

I also don't see podcasts as a replacement for radio. They are two very different products.

 

[MarkW]

The vinyl album is an antiquated way of accessing content, and for some reason, millennials love them. Millennials aren't opposed to antiques. They love old cars and classic rock. So they have no problem with FM radio. They also have subscriptions to online music services. It's not all or nothing. The advantage they see to FM is it doesn't ask them for personal information.

Vinyl has a cult following at best. If that is FM radio's future, the future ain't too bright. Again, the number of viable AM/FM stations will shrink, and a good chunk of those that do survive will basically follow a K-Love type model.

They have no problem with FM radio? Per Edison, FM radio's share of audio listening keeps sliding downward. As noted earlier, FM radio slid from 51% to 44% over a 5 year period among all teens and adults. If you were to isolate adults under the age of 30, I bet the degradation is significantly steeper than that.

Remind me, how much has radio revenue declined over the past 10 to 15 years? Traditional radio's diminution in relevance will only continue to grow worse.

And we should remember that teens have not been a radio station target for 30 to 40 years

I'd say 20+ years. I attended high school in the mid 90's. We were HOOKED big time on our favorite radio stations (Top 40, alternative, hard rock, or hip-hop as the case may be).

 

[davideduardo]

If you were to isolate adults under the age of 30, I bet the degradation is significantly steeper than that.

Actually, 18-34 is a lot better than teens, although not as good as 25-54. Remember, stations don't target teens as there is no ad revenue there... and there has not been for 30 to 40 years back.

But hey, keep living in denial! It's served your industry great. Remind me, how much has radio revenue declined over the past 10 to 15 years?

Radio is still the largest circulation medium, and is very cost efficient. No, it is not what it was in the 90's and even up to the end of the following decade.

The biggest impact on radio in the markets where most of the revenue is obtained... the top 50 markets... has been the PPM, which cut time spent listening by over a third. And that cut revenue, based on CPM or CPP, by a third. Add in inflation and new media, and you have a bunch of big changes. Radio has a different focus based on the money demos wanting different things than my generation wanted.

I see a gradual transition to national network formats, with little local music programming being done. That is how most of the Americas and Europe and other nations where there is free radio do it. We have the technology and the financial pressure, so this will be done very soon.

I'd say 20+ years. I attended high school in the mid 90's. We were HOOKED big time on our favorite radio stations (Top 40, alternative, hard rock, or hip-hop as the case may be).

Yes, and nobody wants to have teen listeners. In fact, having too many teens will negatively impact station revenue in some ad categories.

And don't confuse the AM and FM bands with content. Radio stations can move to other distribution channels when it is important to do so; we are in the content business, not the transmitter and tower business. The only reason why this has not fully happened yet is that the costs of digital streaming don't allow any free digital content providers to make money.

 

[davideduardo]

I also don't see podcasts as a replacement for radio. They are two very different products.

And go find a music podcast...

Oh, there aren't any. Right.

 

[CTListener]

And we should remember that teens have not been a radio station target for 30 to 40 years; even CHR targets 18-34 and 25-44 women, not youth.

Is that true for Urban as well? I thought the hip-hop heavy Urban format was big among black (and some Latino) teens and dropped off dramatically once they hit 25 or 30. Is it really attracting listeners all the way up to 44? I thought around 30 would be when Urban AC would become the preferred format.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

I also don't see podcasts as a replacement for radio. They are two very different products.

This strikes me as a head-in-sand reaction.

If 10% of your AM drive listeners leave for podcasts, that will affect your revenue. And I would bet that at least 10% of those 18-34 are doing exactly that.

 

[davideduardo]

This strikes me as a head-in-sand reaction.

If 10% of your AM drive listeners leave for podcasts, that will affect your revenue. And I would bet that at least 10% of those 18-34 are doing exactly that.

Reality tells us that the impact on 18-34's is not the same as the broad percentages. Very little 18-34 listening, now and historically, is to pure talk shows. Most is to music, and in mornings, music with personality.

Even if you look back to the time that Stern was on commercial terrestrial radio, you can see that what that all-talk show had was long TSL and very tight cume.

Since podcasts can't carry music (except for stuff that is not subject to artist, label and composer rights), we are talking about all spoken word content.

This is no more a head-in-sand reaction than understanding that commercial radio and legal cassettes or CDs of recorded music were alternatives, not direct competition, in the 70's, 80's, 90's.

Radio has always shared with other forms of entertainment and information delivery. I suspect that we will now see a huge trend towards national shows using the Seacreast model of a talent that is a star by their own right who will have access to timely, special and interesting information that only that show can provide. Today, jocks reading stuff from news services are just repeating material that listeners already could access... so the solution is unique national talent, distributed on local radio stations, talking about new and exclusive subjects.

 

[davideduardo]

Is that true for Urban as well? I thought the hip-hop heavy Urban format was big among black (and some Latino) teens and dropped off dramatically once they hit 25 or 30. Is it really attracting listeners all the way up to 44? I thought around 30 would be when Urban AC would become the preferred format.

There are, for all practical purposes, no ad dollars against teens in any group, whether the group is determined by race, culture or musical taste. In fact, even Spanish language stations see no teen dollars.

If you look at the big CHRs in markets like LA and New York, you will see that they are strong in 18-49 and 25-54 and, of course, subsets like 25-44.

KIIS in LA is #2 in the last month in 25-54, #1 in 18-34 and #1 in 18-49.

Looking at NYC, in the Urban vs. Urban AC formats, the two Urban stations have about 9 total shares while the Urban AC station has 5 shares. It's not until you look at 36-64 that WBLS wins.

 

[TheBigA]

If 10% of your AM drive listeners leave for podcasts, that will affect your revenue. And I would bet that at least 10% of those 18-34 are doing exactly that.

If you do morning drive for a major company, you're also doing a podcast. It's not a one or the other thing. It's both.

 

[MarkW]

Yes, and nobody wants to have teen listeners. In fact, having too many teens will negatively impact station revenue in some ad categories.

I never understood CBS's programming strategy for its non-heritage CHRs.

Most of them very much sounded like "kiddie" stations to me. 98.7 in Detroit, for example, had mediocre to terrible numbers in all demos except teens. The imaging screamed teen. The music selection screamed teen. The on-air hyperactivity and flirtatious nature of certain DJs screamed late teen / early 20-something. The content of the morning show (Rat and Puff) sounded like something 14 years old would listen to as they rode the school bus! Cannot picture any adult choosing that show for their own listening pleasure. The funny thing is, that station FINALLY found a decent morning show about five months before it left the air for good. By then, Entercom evidently concluded that the collateral damage was irreversible. I think they made a good move in flipping that station to Soft AC, which complements that station's heritage as a long running Smooth Jazz station very nicely.

92.3 in New York, 103.7 in Dallas, and other CBS-owned CHRs also had similar programming flaws, IMO.

You are right; most of the iHeart CHR stations do a terrific job of appealing to a wide age range of listeners.

 

[Schroedingers Cat]

I remember when I used to call the 312-591-3045, later 312-591-3089 in the 1970s. The call screener always asked demographics. I did get to talk to Tom Kent (as I recall doing overnights back then) one time. I think he was the first to tell me that the inside joke was already that they were the "World's Last Station" to add new records. I think they just paid lip service to teens with Animal Stories and Boogie Check, etc., and they really wanted 18-35.

 

[Ralph Martin]

Some might believe that radio is aging out. It's not (or doesn't have to).

Our station programming is designed for listeners 18 and under. It's content is controlled, selected, and presented by kids in that age range. On FM Radio! And it's across 4 digital HD channels.

The coolest thing is that kids actually dictate what their parents listen to in the car ?. "Mom! Dad! turn on VCS Radio!!" That way, we get the older folks by default.

Cheer up, radio enthusiasts. We all love radio on this forum. It's why we're here. Kids will listen to the radio if we provide relevant service to the family. Parents will listen too!

And guess what? kids can actually do radio!
They may not be pro but listen for just an hour. You'd be shocked as to what they come up with. They certainly entertain their listeners! Any age.

Sorry about all of the exclamation points!! I'm so excited about the future of radio!!

Ralph
KVCB-LP/HD

https://kvcb-online.com/

 

[TheBigA]

Some might believe that radio is aging out. It's not (or doesn't have to).

I've had a similar experience. Every time I read of a college that is selling off it's FM station, I also read of a student group that wants to retain it. The colleges say young people don't use FM, and the facts show otherwise. So the colleges launch online radio stations, thinking they've done the cool thing that students love, and it gets far less attention from the students than the FM.

The problem with radio that I see isn't the listening, but rather how to pay for it. That's really the issue for the colleges. They see a lot of expense and not a lot of return, at least to their core mission. I think there needs to be some attention paid to the expense side of the platform, and this situation might force that to happen. Among the expenses cited by colleges and companies alike are the legal and regulatory expenses. That needs to be addressed.

The other thing is ad-supported media. Radio stations would gladly play music for high school kids or their grandparents, but the advertisers aren't interested in reaching those audiences. Perhaps its time to look at alternative ways to fund radio stations so they're not stuck (as they are now) when all the advertising dries up.

 

[Ralph Martin]

The other thing is ad-supported media. Radio stations would gladly play music for high school kids or their grandparents, but the advertisers aren't interested in reaching those audiences. Perhaps its time to look at alternative ways to fund radio stations so they're not stuck (as they are now) when all the advertising dries up.

You'd be surprised what savvy entrepreneurs can come up with when they add just a little creativity. Program to the kids and target ads to their parents. It's been done by the cinematic arts for many years. They know who buys the movie tickets for their kids to go to the theater. That's why Pixar presents films for kids but puts in humor aimed at their parents who are just the right demographic.

I don't presume to have all the answers for commercial broadcasting. I believe they know how to keep radio viable. Just a little creativity should do the trick. In my humble opinion, they'd better start innovating now or they'll be forced to do it later. Either way life -- and radio -- will move forward.

 

[davideduardo]

You'd be surprised what savvy entrepreneurs can come up with when they add just a little creativity. Program to the kids and target ads to their parents. It's been done by the cinematic arts for many years. They know who buys the movie tickets for their kids to go to the theater. That's why Pixar presents films for kids but puts in humor aimed at their parents who are just the right demographic.

I don't presume to have all the answers for commercial broadcasting. I believe they know how to keep radio viable. Just a little creativity should do the trick. In my humble opinion, they'd better start innovating now or they'll be forced to do it later. Either way life -- and radio -- will move forward.

The problem is that certain very narrow groups, such as kids, Medicare-eligible seniors, etc., are most efficiently reached by national media where there is format consistency in every state.

Senior focused TV is very profitable on cable. That's because they sell nationally and give similar delivery across the nation.

Locally, few advertisers buy radio for teens or children or for seniors. They know where their money comes from. So there are even fewer radio stations efficiently delivering teens or seniors... they can't make money with the few buys that might be out there.

I have the fear or concern that retail will further decline after this endemic is controlled. Many will have become completely tied to online buying. Others will still have fears or have lost the habit of going to stores. Just as we have become used to paying for entertainment that used to be free in the pre-cable and internet days, we will be used to paying for delivery of many things, from drugs to groceries.

And that means less retail business for radio.

 

[Ralph Martin]

Entrepreneurs don't fear such things, because they can't control it. What they can do is look for the path to profitable ventures. Radio can do it, because it's an existing infrastructure. It still reaches a lot of people. It's primed for innovating because station operators see the urgency -- or soon will.

Radio Broadcasters: I can't think of a better time than now to be "INTERESTING!"

 

[PTBoardOp94]

I have the fear or concern that retail will further decline after this endemic is controlled. Many will have become completely tied to online buying. Others will still have fears or have lost the habit of going to stores.

I agree. There were a bunch of retailers who were in financial trouble before COVID-19. It's hard to imagine those companies surviving 4 weeks, or more, of nearly zero revenue.

Even if the retail business recovers quickly, they will probably have other priorities than advertising for the first several weeks/months.

 

[Ralph Martin]

I agree. There were a bunch of retailers who were in financial trouble before COVID-19. It's hard to imagine those companies surviving 4 weeks, or more, of nearly zero revenue.

Even if the retail business recovers quickly, they will probably have other priorities than advertising for the first several weeks/months.

Covid-19 is serious and its here. The aftermath is something we'll have to deal with. We have reason to be concerned, but we have a duty to be hopeful. Radio will help get America through this in its own way. That's why I'm in the studio now setting up Zoom meetings for this coming week's radio programming.

When this all clears up, we'll face moving forward in the same way we always do -- with hope.

Pardon my annoying optimism, but I believe radio will survive.