August 2010 Ratings

[Brooklyndon]

Why not? NOW's audience is coming from somewhere, and it certainly isn't WHTZ or WKTU.

An audience does not "come from" anywhere. The average person uses five or six stations in a week, so listening more to one may just mean a rebalancing of listening to one or another of the rest. Very often those added quarter hours come from the station liked the least, not one that is most similar to the growing station.

Thank you for the insight. They way I apply it to New York City radio is that Z-100 is still the #1 chr, WKTU still the #1 Z-100 alternative, but the #2 alternative to Z-100, once Hot 97, is now a choice between HOT and NOW. If that application of the general theory is correct, then it would follow that NOW should have the ratings momentum it currently has, as NOW is a full-time CHR, whereas HOT and POWER are only CHRs at drivetime.

It is clear that NOW's success is coming at HOT's expense. The interesting question is how should WQHT adapt to the new environment where reliance on drivetime CHR listeners for ratings padding is no longer a viable strategy? Should it go full-time CHR, should it put its female audience at risk by focusing more pointedly on rap, or should it continue to do the same as before and hope that NOW has reached the point at which it can no longer draw off any of HOT's part-time listeners?

 

[radiolives]

Let me ask this question. What if Power or Hot flipped formats? What would these ratings look like if we only had one Hot/Power and 92.3 Now FM is still here. Can anyone see one of the urbans flipping?

 

[stationless listener]

Let me ask this question. What if Power or Hot flipped formats? What would these ratings look like if we only had one Hot/Power and 92.3 Now FM is still here. Can anyone see one of the urbans flipping?

There would be a revolt within the listener group that tunes to those stations. Maybe not as much on Power 105 but certainly at Hot 97. This would be similar to how the hardcore listeners of CBS-FM revolted against management and the Jack format until Jack was finally dropped (but went to the "classic hits" format, instead). Being that New York (the Bronx, specifically) was where hip-hop was first cultivated, folks are going to hang on to that format as long as possible.

Having said that, I do think there are too many stations playing urban music, when counting the above plus Kiss FM and 'BLS (even X 96.3 leans a bit more urban on the Spanish side). 'BLS isn't going away soon, as it's a legacy station that caters to a certain group. In a way, Hot 97 could be considered a legacy station with respect to hip-hop/R&B. If one station has to change, it would be between Now and Power. I think the fortunes of Clear Channel could give us a clue who that would be.

 

[Brooklyndon]

There would be a revolt within the listener group that tunes to those stations.

It depends on the change. Were Hot or Power to tweek rap instead of crossover, the listener base may pleased.

I question your assertion that a CBS-FM style revolt would occur. WCBS was the only oldies station in the market. We have established that there are already 3-5 urban stations depending on how wide of a net you cast. Why do you believe a "listener revolt" would happen?

 

[davideduardo]

Let me ask this question. What if Power or Hot flipped formats? What would these ratings look like if we only had one Hot/Power and 92.3 Now FM is still here. Can anyone see one of the urbans flipping?

In the last full year, Hot was in the top 10 in billings, and Power outbilled WCBS FM. While things may have changed somewhat this year, Power's ratings are comparable to last year and Hot on average is up a bit. Hot is second or third in 18-49, based on an average of April/May/June and Power is around 6th and 4th in 18-34. Why would either of them want to change?

 

[davideduardo]

There would be a revolt within the listener group that tunes to those stations. Maybe not as much on Power 105 but certainly at Hot 97. This would be similar to how the hardcore listeners of CBS-FM revolted against management and the Jack format until Jack was finally dropped

It should be abundently clear that the "listener revolt" did not motivate CBS to change CBS-FM... in a market where a major station cumes 3 million or so, a few protesters is not significant.

What did motivate CBS is the success in the PPM trials of WOGL in Philadelphia using a more 70's based gold format. This made it fairly clear that an oldies format kicked a decade forward would be a PPM winner and would cover the higher end of the sales demo 25-54 range quite well.

 

[KFodor]

On WCBS-FM, David is absolutely right.

While it's true the CBS-FM fans absolutely flooded this board for months, and (in the words of Bob Shannon) "never gave up", what is also true is that the numbers seen in the PPM for WOGL showed it was possible to kick the format ahead by about 10 years, and still find 25-54 ratings success. That, by the way, is something many oldies programmers originally thought, and preached, couldn't be done.

 

[radiolives]

I believe you have a good point. But if either of them to flip I say it would be Power. Also in the months of April, May, June who was above Power in the 18-34 demo? I would say one being z100.

As for CBS-FM fans getting very upset when 101.1 flipped to Jack. Say Emmis just took away Hot 97 and made it a Spanish Pop station just out of the blue as CBS did when taking away oldies from 101.1. Would fans of Hot 97 be how the fans of CBS-FM were the day the oldies stopped?

 

[davideduardo]

I believe you have a good point. But if either of them to flip I say it would be Power. Also in the months of April, May, June who was above Power in the 18-34 demo? I would say one being z100.

The audience of Power is nearly 2/3 African American and over 20% Hispanic. Z-100 has well under 10% African American audience. One has the profile of an urban station while Z100 looks like a mainstream CHR.

Power and Z-100 are totally different formats with very different audience profiles. Buyers can see this, and will select an assortment of stations when targeting 18-34. Since radio is bought based on audience delivery and not just rank, it really does not matter if a station is first or third or second or fifth in a demo.

Other stations frequently or always in the top 5 include Hot, Z-100, KTU, Mega and Lite FM.

 

[Brooklyndon]

I believe you have a good point. But if either of them to flip I say it would be Power. Also in the months of April, May, June who was above Power in the 18-34 demo? I would say one being z100.

The audience of Power is nearly 2/3 African American and over 20% Hispanic.

What does HOT's audience look like if its the #3 most popular station 18-45? HOT's the station that, I conjecture, is feeling the impact of NOW.

 

[davideduardo]

I believe you have a good point. But if either of them to flip I say it would be Power. Also in the months of April, May, June who was above Power in the 18-34 demo? I would say one being z100.

The audience of Power is nearly 2/3 African American and over 20% Hispanic.

What does HOT's audience look like if its the #3 most popular station 18-45? HOT's the station that, I conjecture, is feeling the impact of NOW.

18-45 is not a standard demo.

In 18-34, Hot has been #2 over the last 15 books with one time at #3 (the odd Holiday book) and a pair of #1 showings in months that start with "A".

It would not appar that Now has changed Hot's performance in any way.

Now is almost identical to Z-100 in profile... under 10% African American, twenty-some percent Hispanic. The Classic CHR profile. Not the same format as Hot.

 

[davideduardo]

I believe you have a good point. But if either of them to flip I say it would be Power. Also in the months of April, May, June who was above Power in the 18-34 demo? I would say one being z100.

The audience of Power is nearly 2/3 African American and over 20% Hispanic.

What does HOT's audience look like if its the #3 most popular station 18-45? HOT's the station that, I conjecture, is feeling the impact of NOW.

 

[Brooklyndon]

It would not appar that Now has changed Hot's performance in any way.

So has NOW actually been growing ratings in its target? And, if so, what do you think the cause for that ratings growth is?

 

[DanceDiva3]

Whats NOW?

 

[radiolives]

Whats NOW?

92.3 Now FM - New York's Hit Music Channel