August 2022 PPM 6+ Mon-Sun, 6a-12mid

[Kelly A]

Agreed. But KIRO is also wiping the floor clean with KJR-F in the demos that matter for sports radio.

It's been six months. Settle down.

I'm not exactly sure what point you are attempting to make. A different (much broader) audience uses the FM ecosystem than the AM radio ecosystem. Moving the AM station's programming to FM with zero lineup or content changes might not be the best idea. Depends on the situation.

My point (as simple as it was) is that the programming hadn't changed when KJR moved to FM, so why is this now something so new? You claim their programming sucks is the reason they aren't doing well 6+, but it's the same programming they had on 950kHz. Are you saying they sucked back then too?

 

[MarkW]

My point (as simple as it was) is that the programming hadn't changed when KJR moved to FM, so why is this now something so new? You claim their programming sucks is the reason they aren't doing well 6+, but it's the same programming they had on 950kHz. Are you saying they sucked back then too?

I think they lost some folks (simply by way of confusion) when they relocated from AM 950 to FM 93.3.

Folks much more knowledgeable with the sports radio scene in Seattle than me in this very thread have professed KIRO's talk programming is superior. Doesn't necessarily mean that KJR "sucks," it just means KIRO evidently is delivering a more compelling product. Due to the relocation of KJR's programming from 950 to 93.3, I suspect *some* P1s of KIRO who might've toggled back and forth between 710 and 950 on occasion now keep their radios locked on 710 much more often.

KJR should consider retooling some of its programming if its lackluster ratings performance continues to try to draw in listeners who've not partaken in sports radio in the past, when it was exclusively available on the AM dial. CBS Radio utilized this strategy in markets such as Detroit when moving its sports brand from AM to FM with great success.

I think a big test will come once baseball season concludes and once football season concludes. That should put KJR on more level footing with KIRO.

 

[Kelly A]

KJR should consider retooling some of its programming if its lackluster ratings performance continues to try to draw in listeners who've not partaken in sports radio in the past, when it was exclusively available on the AM dial. CBS Radio utilized this strategy in markets such as Detroit when moving its sports brand from AM to FM with great success.

Did you ever consider that maybe moving to FM was just one of many upcoming steps?

 

[TheBigA]

Moving the AM station's programming to FM with zero lineup or content changes might not be the best idea. Depends on the situation.

In the case of two all news stations, KNX Los Angeles and KYW Philadelphia, the addition of an FM simulcast had very little effect on ratings or demos. My view on this move was that it solved the KUBE problem in a way that made the best use of local resources. However, I would have kept the simulcast on the AM.

I think they lost some folks (simply by way of confusion) when they relocated from AM 950 to FM 93.3.

I agree, especially the way they did it. That was obvious in the first few books after the change.

 

[davideduardo]

In the case of two all news stations, KNX Los Angeles and KYW Philadelphia, the addition of an FM simulcast had very little effect on ratings or demos.

In Philadelphia, what they added was just a translator. It is a tiny signal.

In LA, I doubt there was much expectation of any audience improvement and the addition of FM was to keep the existing audience. LA is 74% ethnic and first generation immigrants, and in 25-54 the figure is even higher. There is limited use of all news other than by older non-ethnic persons, mostly men. This was a defensive move, at best.

 

[TheBigA]

In LA, I doubt there was much expectation of any audience improvement and the addition of FM was to keep the existing audience.

I think the KNX situation is very similar to KJR. Both companies had failing stations on FM. Both companies had expensive formats on AM. The best use of company resources was to move the expensive format to FM. However Audacy kept the format on the AM, and iHeart replaced local sports with syndicated sports. That in my opinion was a mistake.

 

[MarkW]

Did you ever consider that maybe moving to FM was just one of many upcoming steps?

Yes, Prince Charming, I considered that.

 

[fordranger797]

Is there not a cost savings for iheart by moving their local sports format from 950 to 93.3? More specifically, iheart saves money by eliminating a format that is dragging the cluster down and instead placing a format does indeed bring in money (sports) to 93.3. If iheart tried any other format on 93.3, it would have likely been expensive and wouldn’t have guaranteed any return.

 

[davideduardo]

I think the KNX situation is very similar to KJR. Both companies had failing stations on FM. Both companies had expensive formats on AM. The best use of company resources was to move the expensive format to FM. However Audacy kept the format on the AM, and iHeart replaced local sports with syndicated sports. That in my opinion was a mistake.

First, Seattle has one of the higher percentages of non-ethnic residents. Second, the AM in Seattle is not a clear channel with extensive coverage... it is pretty decent for a modified regional channel, but not a day and night full market signal like KNX is.

Keeping KNX (AM) in a simulcast made great sense in LA... it is the bigger regional signal.

 

[bobdavcav]

Kelly,
You raise a good point, but the data we're talking about politically is available publicly, the data radio stations use to make format decisions is not. While I appreciate your knowledge of this industry, your constant challenging of every prediction on this board lately is really getting annoying. While 6+ numbers may mean nothing, it's extremely rare to see a flip at a station ranked top 5 in that demo either. Case in point, a brief discussion was had earlier in this thread about KSWD, and how while doing well 6+, is way behind in core demos. On the other hand, KUBE had its lowest share since 1980, and everyone started speculating it might be in trouble. There's no discussion of a flip at 94.1 here, and within a couple months of speculation beginning about KUBE being in trouble it was gone. That's not to say of course that every prediction on this board has come true, plenty haven't, but I think the people on here know a lot more than you give them credit for.
Mark, thank you for backing me up on this, this is the argument I've been making all throughout this thread. I've been watching the ratings in this market for almost 10 years now, and I've never seen KJR beat KIRO. While this may have looked good on paper, what looks good on paper doesn't always play out in real life.
Ford, you might be right. I think the answer to your question also depends on how much overhead 1090 had with the sports format it was running before the recent changes VS. now with conservative talk. Am I right that the local show on 1090 was dumped with the changes after iHeart took over and replaced with all syndication? If so, you're probably right in thinking there's some cost savings in eliminating KUBE from the cluster.

 

[Kelly A]

Kelly,
You raise a good point, but the data we're talking about politically is available publicly, the data radio stations use to make format decisions is not. While I appreciate your knowledge of this industry, your constant challenging of every prediction on this board lately is really getting annoying.

Rest assured my intention isn't to annoy people making predictions based on irrelevant, or gut feel, but to point out why the inaccuracies are potentially misleading to those who are maybe open to the truth. Your predictions and prognostication's are indeed not based on anything, so professionals, including me, reserve the right to attempt to educate people like you on how things work in the biz. Just like in politics of today, I guess you can believe down is up and day is night if you choose, but that doesn't mean your observations are based on anything real.

While 6+ numbers may mean nothing, it's extremely rare to see a flip at a station ranked top 5 in that demo either. Case in point, a brief discussion was had earlier in this thread about KSWD, and how while doing well 6+, is way behind in core demos. On the other hand, KUBE had its lowest share since 1980, and everyone started speculating it might be in trouble. There's no discussion of a flip at 94.1 here, and within a couple months of speculation beginning about KUBE being in trouble it was gone. That's not to say of course that every prediction on this board has come true, plenty haven't, but I think the people on here know a lot more than you give them credit for.

Hows the old saying go? A broken clock is right twice a day. That doesn't mean the clock is accurate.

Mark, thank you for backing me up on this, this is the argument I've been making all throughout this thread. I've been watching the ratings in this market for almost 10 years now, and I've never seen KJR beat KIRO.

And that you're right. KJR has never done well in 6+ published ratings. Think about it. What does that tell you?

While this may have looked good on paper, what looks good on paper doesn't always play out in real life.

You honestly believe you're so much smarter than the folks at iHeart? You don't think they've done research?

 

[The New Chico]

It is an excellent long term play towards getting in the next contract negotiations for the Mariners or Seahawks PBP. KIRO-FM does play the Seahawks, but that frequency otherwise doesn't support the team- only the AM does. And they only play the Ms on Sunday afternoons; otherwise it's just on 710. Bonneville is doing very well with current programming on 97.3, so hard to imagine them moving the 710 programming over there full time. Which leaves us with 93.3 as the only FM option for the Ms 7 days a week and the Seahawks with essentially 6 day a week support.

Unless, of course, another local player wants to get involved. Or Bonneville picks up another FM frequency.

 

[TheBigA]

I've never seen KJR beat KIRO. While this may have looked good on paper, what looks good on paper doesn't always play out in real life.

The goal isn't for KJR to beat KIRO. The goal is for KJEB to be #1. So KJEB is #1 in 25-54, and KIRO is #5. KJEB is #1 6+ and KIRO is #3. iHeart wins.

 

[bobdavcav]

Rest assured my intention isn't to annoy people making predictions based on irrelevant, or gut feel, but to point out why the inaccuracies are potentially misleading to those who are maybe open to the truth. Your predictions and prognostication's are indeed not based on anything, so professionals, including me, reserve the right to attempt to educate people like you on how things work in the biz. Just like in politics of today, I guess you can believe down is up and day is night if you choose, but that doesn't mean your observations are based on anything real.

Hows the old saying go? A broken clock is right twice a day. That doesn't mean the clock is accurate.

And that you're right. KJR has never done well in 6+ published ratings. Think about it. What does that tell you?

You honestly believe you're so much smarter than the folks at iHeart? You don't think they've done research?

I'll answer your last question first, heck no, especially when it comes to sports talk, as I've never been able to get my mind around how the format can do so well despite low ratings, even with everyone's explanations. With just about every other format, low ratings usually mean a change is coming. I can only guess that I would have come to a similar conclusion if I had all the data about 93.3, but as I've said before, companies have flipped stations to news/talk or sports only to reverse those decisions within a couple of years. Take the last format change at 93.3 in 2016. They did exactly what I had been wanting them to do for several years, only to reverse the changes just over two years later.
It was mentioned on this board last month that the Seahawks contract is up at the end of the upcoming season, and speculation was that iHeart would make a play for that. If the Mariners are also on a five year contract, that would put it up for renewal at the end of next season. If they can't get either of those contracts, where are they? Pretty much where they are now. I would think the likelihood of a flip at 93.3 decreases if they can secure either one of those contracts, and increases if they can't. If neither of those contracts are secured, I could see a flip at 93.3, which could be as late as February 2024. That still gives them just under two years, and I guarantee you, a station somewhere else in the country that changed around the same time as the flip at 93.3 will have changed formats by then.

 

[fordranger797]

I'll answer your last question first, heck no, especially when it comes to sports talk, as I've never been able to get my mind around how the format can do so well despite low ratings, even with everyone's explanations. With just about every other format, low ratings usually mean a change is coming. I can only guess that I would have come to a similar conclusion if I had all the data about 93.3, but as I've said before, companies have flipped stations to news/talk or sports only to reverse those decisions within a couple of years. Take the last format change at 93.3 in 2016. They did exactly what I had been wanting them to do for several years, only to reverse the changes just over two years later.
It was mentioned on this board last month that the Seahawks contract is up at the end of the upcoming season, and speculation was that iHeart would make a play for that. If the Mariners are also on a five year contract, that would put it up for renewal at the end of next season. If they can't get either of those contracts, where are they? Pretty much where they are now. I would think the likelihood of a flip at 93.3 decreases if they can secure either one of those contracts, and increases if they can't. If neither of those contracts are secured, I could see a flip at 93.3, which could be as late as February 2024. That still gives them just under two years, and I guarantee you, a station somewhere else in the country that changed around the same time as the flip at 93.3 will have changed formats by then.

I think what Kelly is trying to say is that many advertisers will be happy to do business with iheart (specifically KJR) just because it’s a FM sports talk station that has an audience of dedicated male listeners. Sure, there are other stations in town that get more listeners, but they likely are not the right listeners. If I’m trying to sell products that are supposed to appeal to middle aged men, I wouldn’t make Hubbard radio (namely for 92.5 and 106.9) my target company to work with. Rather, I’d want to go where those listeners are likely to exist. It’s paradoxical because I would never argue that KJR is the most listened to station in town, but they have the right type of listeners. Not to mention, it’s arguable that there aren’t as many outlets on the radio for male advertising dollars. KZOK, KIRO-AM and KISW are the only other places I can think of from the top of my head that would be a good landing location for male-centric advertising.

I previously worked for a station that marketed itself to women. From the advertising side of the business, it was very hard to sell anything to male centric businesses.

 

[davideduardo]

I'll answer your last question first, heck no, especially when it comes to sports talk, as I've never been able to get my mind around how the format can do so well despite low ratings, even with everyone's explanations. With just about every other format, low ratings usually mean a change is coming.

Sports talk has a sort of "secret source": sports marketing money. There are corporate budgets that have a separate category for sports marketing because the sports environment is so critical to sales. So there is plenty of money out there that will only go to sports stations.

And then, those low rated sports stations may look like they are 12th or 15th or somewhere else in the ratings basement. But in 25-44 men, they may be first or second and at the top on buys ranging from hardware stores to beer.

The classic example is WFAN in New York during its first two decades: nearly always at 15th in 12+ share, but #1 or #2 in market revenue.

The corollary to this "rule" was WDUV in Tampa... about 20 years as #1 in 12+ but always 15th in revenue. That was because nearly all its audience was 55+, and much of it 65+.

Two more examples of how deceptive those 6+ or 12+ numbers can be. Nielsen gives them away free because that is what they are worth.

 

[Cobra14]

“You honestly believe you're so much smarter than the folks at iHeart? You don't think they've done research?”

iHeart/CC did research when they flipped the multiple stations in 2016 and then did research when they reverted KBKS back to Top 40 from the Hot AC format.
iHeart did research when they flipped KNBQ from Country to KJR Sports back in 2011, then did research when they flipped that frequency to Hot AC. iheart/CC did research when they dropped the KJR FM format and flipped it to Oldies and brought Rivers over at the same time. They did research when they dropped the Oldies and flipped to KJR FM as Classic Hits. iHeart did research when they flipped Power back to KUBE and did research when they said it was a strategy to give KUBE a break by having Power as the brand for a couple of years. IHeart did research when they acquired KZOK and JACK from CBS and then let the top rated mid day person go while his ratings were the highest in the cluster. They researched it. Clear Channel did research back when they put KJR AM on the air from Tacoma and then did research when they learned the signal in Seattle wouldn’t play, they did research and put the transmitter on the air from Vashon. You’re familiar with that Kelly. They did research when they dropped Rivers and rebranded as an airplane in the city that’s lesser known for planes now and more for tech. They did research when they relocated the studios next to railroad tracks and then did research when they relocated to the current location by the same railroad tracks. They did research when they spent mega bucks remodeling the studios and suite and just finished demolishing the new 2 year old suite to relocate to a smaller area on the same floor closer to the railroad tracks. IHeart continues to do research to improve their brands. IHeart did research when they put the Black Information format on a frequency that mostly covers rural Pierce County but not the Rainier Valley and Seattle and put the conservative format on a frequency which transmitter is co-located with another conservative station. 1090 a signal that covers progressive leaning areas but misses conservative rural areas on the east side. It was all researched.

 

[Cobra14]

And that you're right. KJR has never done well in 6+ published ratings. Think about it. What does that tell you?

That they should flip all their stations to sports talk and not worry about ratings. And for that matter why not relocate the transmitters to a location that doesn’t serve the primary population since ratings don’t matter with sports talk formats. It’s Been done before in this market. Win win deal. They could have a sports radio format wall in every market. Everything from bowling to guys playing billiards down at the local tavern could have commentary. They could have a show about yodeling contests. Who needs expensive music formats where ratings matter when according to you sports talk is immune to such standards. We all know those talk show hosts aren’t paid and doing it for free.

 

[Cobra14]

They call this a discussion board. When someone says something totally out of whack, expect a response.

“I want my opinion and only my opinion to leave your keyboard. I don’t want to see any conflicting opinions that may differ from my own. I have a lot of time invested and don’t to be challenged at any of this stuff because I’m expert” Kelly

There I translated that for you.

 

[Cobra14]

If you're talking about the rimshot that didn't cover the entire market? Yes, but 93.3 is a full market signal. That, and AM continues losing listeners, plus sports teams prefer their games be carried on a full market FM signal where the listeners are.

6+ ratings can be ignored. Doesn't matter what the format.

Really? Isn't that the same programming that was on 950kHz?

Did you ever consider that maybe moving to FM was just one of many upcoming steps?

OoOoOoOh! They’ve got a strategy that only YOU and them know about! They’re gonna pull a rabbit out of a hat or some other programming trickery. Just wait and see! They’ve been keeping this one up their sleeve for a LONG time. And now they’re gonna unleash something and hatch an incredible plan to defeat the almighty Kiro AM. Just watch.