Savage said:
Ummmm....this thread is about how car manufacturers have OPPOSED the HD/satrad mandate, which is hardly a positive indicator for the proposal, n'est-ce pas?
I'm missing something here. Supposing HD were actually FCC-mandated for car radios - as we must assent that indicators seem to point otherwise - how would that inexorably lead to "many more HD stations pop(ping) onto the air" in two years?
The biggest problems facing HD are spotty reception, interference, and most listeners don't hear enough of a difference between analog FM and HD-FM to think IBOC is worthwhile. (See this week's RW about this precise issue, comparing HD Radio with HDTV in terms of consumer perception.) Even if HD were forced into car radios I would bet most listening would remain analog, because of its more reliable reception, for the forseeable future. So it's hard to see why "many more" operators would bother with HD (the major problem with adoption of the system thus far.)
How would yet another brute-force attempt to impose HD on the market change any of this?
In my mind it's simple. (I know I'm setting myself up with that comment, but need to lob one up for you guys on occasion). If you talk with most group station owners, whether they were original investors or proponents of the whole HD thing, or not, the major hurdle is implementation by the big three or four automakers. As I think we can agree, with few exceptions, radio is a mobile media, ie, cars. If the commission requires automakers to equip car radios that also have satellite radio receivers, then expect the automakers to do so albeit under protest. Since GM is a shareholder in XM, and Delphi (Ford), in Sirius, then they will have no choice but to comply.
So then lets now suppose, just for arguments sake, that unlike AM stereo, all the new factory-equipped car radios have IBOC reception capabilities. FM Broadcasters now have the ability to use the ancillary channels for additional programming, and AM broadcasters get some increased quality. Now I completely agree with you Savage, (can't believe I'm saying that), the average comsumer can care less whether their radio is receiving music or talk via digital stream or analog.. BUT, if there is any movement toward stations being able to monetize alternate programming via alternate channels, then of course stations will follow the money, no matter what the market size. Heck Savage, you're a station owner, if the FCC allows you to program an alternate programming source on your AM station digital channel, wouldn't you? Especially if say even 10% of the cars in your listening area could hear HD radio? Or let's say WROC is able to put an alternate music channel in IBOC, and keep their talk on analog. Wouldn't that put more pressure on market sales and your station to do the same? It would be like a bunch of new stations coming on line.
As far as your comment about spotty reception and poor coverage, like anything else, technology evolves. I've seen it myself with DTV receivers. There were TV broadcast groups like Sinclair that swore up and down that ATSC modulation was inferior to COFDM, and that 8VSB would never work. The differences in receiver performance since I was involved in the original 8VSB tests back in 1998 verses today are like night and day. I suspect IBOC will be the same over time.