Buffalo Region Downsized

[JustPastBuffalo]

The results of the 2010 U.S. census are in and it's anything but encouraging for the Buffalo region. The Buffalo News offers figures from the 2010 census and describes them in detail.

Erie County lost 3.3 percent of its population and Niagara County declined by slightly more than 1.5 percent. A population decline of 10.7 per cent occurred in the City of Buffalo, while Niagara Falls suffered a loss of 9.8 per cent.

Overall, the Buffalo-Niagara region lost more than 36,600 thousand residents, as the 2010 census indicates a population of 919,040 in Erie County and 216,469 residents in Niagara County. To be certain, the population of some Buffalo suburban communities such as Amherst, Clarence and Orchard Park actually increased, but the overall net for the region is down.

This may not be a "will the last one out turn off the lights" moment. I for one have great faith in Buffalo (call me crazy) and believe there are positive aspects to being "a college town given to academics" such as Madison, Wisconsin. We are afterall, home to the University at Buffalo, Buffalo State College, Canisius College, Niagara University, Daemen College, Medaille College, D'Youville College, Hilbert College and a number of community colleges.

But the latest population figures aren't encouraging news for those who are involved in the media and advertising and work in radio, TV or newspapers. More than likely, national advertising revenue will decline and co-op may be reduced for local advertisers. Politically, Western New York will likely lose one seat in the House of Representatives. One questions the future viability of the Buffalo Bills.

Seventy miles to the east, Rochester posters can be excused if they gloat just a bit as the population of Monroe, Livingston and Ontario Counties actually increased. Rochester very likely will step ahead of Buffalo in market size. USA Today offers a very good interactive U.S. population map.

Some of us can recall working in Buffalo when it was a Top 30 market. Many of the older market vets whom we admire will tell you that it was once a top 15 market. Those days are clearly gone.

One wonders how the latest U.S. Census data for Buffalo will be processed by Cumulus when it enters the market later this year and the effect it might have on the cluster's operation as it competes for revenue with Entercom and Town Square.

 

[GeorgeKramer]

Pastrick said:

"But the latest population figures aren't encouraging news for those who are involved in the media and advertising and work in radio, TV or newspapers. More than likely, national advertising revenue will decline and co-op may be reduced for local advertisers. Politically, Western New York will likely lose one seat in the House of Representatives. One questions the future viability of the Buffalo Bills."

Right on Jim. Ad revenue WILL decrease. They are going to probably erase Louise Slaughter's congressional district and it really is only a matter of time until the Bills leave town. Once Ralph kicks the bucket, it's all set up for the NFL to fulfill their goal of getting at least one team in the attractive Los Angeles TV market and who knows, maybe they land another if the Jaguars or Chargers can't settle their current situations of economic uncertainty.

 

[Mike Sheridan]

I guess this begs the question what can be done to bring people back to Buffalo? What kind of industry would be a good fit for the area?

I think Buffalo has some of the best neighbors of anyplace I have ever lived. In the past I tried to come back several times but it was not to be. For me Buffalo was the best place to grow up in the late '50's early '60's it will always be my home wherever I am.

 

[TVJunkie12]

I guess this begs the question what can be done to bring people back to Buffalo?

There's one big issue for many folks who left-my family included-and that is the cost of living. Until you're not paying hundreds of dollars per month in property taxes alone (with a generous chunk for politicians to buy votes with) there's not going to be any growth. I'm not even going anywhere near the public sector union stranglehold there is on the state of New York but even your governor knows there's a problem with that. Couple that with the fact that you are paying about .20 more per gallon for gas than we do in my state and the numbers are what they are. The county we live in now had a population growth of 31% in ten years. Personally, I left in 2002 for warmer and cheaper climes and we have never looked back even though all of mine and my wife's families are still in W.N.Y.

 

[Bob1370]

"They are going to probably erase Louise Slaughter's congressional district and it really is only a matter of time until the Bills leave town."

Probably not, because you don't throw away seniority and clout. The likelihood is that the open district once represented by Chris Lee, where the new arrival elected in May will be low person on the totem pole, will have to face redistricting into oblivion. And as far as the Bills, they aren't going anywhere. They still have a regional reach that makes them one of the more profitable teams in the NFL, whatever Ralph Wilson may kvetch about.....not to mention that there is literally no place that can support an NFL team and give it an adequate stadium to play in, that doesn't already have one. LA is a decade away from building a stadium, San Antonio needs a facility with twice the 40,000 seating capacity of the Alamo Dome, Toronto has shown it isn't interested and needs a stadium with 20,000 more seats than the Rogers Center, and New York City--which could support a third team somewhere within the five boroughs--will surely be blocked by the Jets and Giants. So whoever has the Bills rights whenever the NFL starts playing again will have a good source of ongoing revenue not only on game day but with salable supporting programs all week.


The Rochester area is actually still growing. And it is possible that Rochester will soon move past Buffalo in market ranking. What that will do to national spot buys and to local ad revenue is anyone's guess.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

The process of redistricting the US Congressional Districts is in the hands of the NYS Legislature which is controlled by Republicans. The process must be completed by the 2012 federal elections. I don't think anybody can presume to guess what they'll do, but as a result of the 2010 US Census it's almost certain Western New York will lose one Congressional district. Another downstate Congressional District also will be lost.

Look at the Dems, look at the Repubs, study the requirements as mandated by law (e.g., population, minority composition, etc.) then mix in a dash of politics and it's very likely one Democrat district in WNY will disappear. Slaughter's (House 28th) slice that borders Lake Ontario? Higgin's (House 27th) two county Western District? This isn't an automatic by any means, but remember which party is in control in Albany.

Here's a map of the present District. http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NY My layman's guess is the 29th and 28th will get combined and the 27th will get re-structured with some of the 26th. Who's the odd-man/woman out? We shall see.

 

[Bob1370]

"Look at the Dems, look at the Repubs, study the requirements as mandated by law (e.g., population, minority composition, etc.) then mix in a dash of politics and it's very likely one Democrat district in WNY will disappear. Slaughter's (House 28th) slice that borders Lake Ontario? Higgin's (House 27th) two county Western District? This isn't an automatic by any means, but remember which party is in control in Albany."

Shelly Silver's Assembly has at least as much to say about it as Dean Skelos' closely divided Senate...not to mention Governor Cuomo will veto any attempt by the Repubs to tilt the playing field too much. Dems have the edge there.,..and the Court of Appeals, which largely consists of Spitzer and Paterson appointees, may also weigh in. This isn't like things were ten years ago. And to return it to radio, it ain't like 10 years ago either. The big change in the markets and in population are in the Buffalo region and that's where revenue will be lost.

 

[Mike Sheridan]

I have to agree with TV Junkie the property taxes in WNY are 3x what they are where I live. They don't raise taxes here, they just reevaluate your house to an unrealistic level. Somehow they get away with it.

When it comes to school supplies that are used in the classroom at large do your taxes still pay for that? Here the PTA has to fund raise so that the classrooms have enough supplies like construction paper, crayons and assorted consumables that we took for granted when I was growing up. Also our public libraries are on an ever shrinking schedule.

As for Unions, we don't have any. Everyone here seems to think that big business will take care of everything. So far I don't think it's quite working out that way.

 

[TVJunkie12]

As for Unions, we don't have any.

Ah yes, therein lies a big issue. Private sector unions-have at it. Private companies are just that-private and their sole motivation should be to at the end of the day be profitable. If a unionized work force is in your best interest by all means, be a union shop. Public sector unions, that's a whole other ball of wax-even F.D.R. knew those would be detrimental and thus worked to prevent them. I am an employee of the state I live in but not in a union. I have to *gasp* do my job as it was construed when I took it or I could be fired by the right to work state I live in. Thus, I do my job to the best of my ability, contribute to my health insurance costs and retirement and by doing so I don't lose much sleep about getting fired and my co-workers do the same and we all have for years. Maybe that's why this is one of four states in the country that aren't fiscally insolvent and also have attracted major companies to move into here and hire thousands of people to work for them with good wages and benefits packages. Hence the 31% population growth in 10 years in this county alone.

Just sayin'

 

[Paul_Warren]

Every time I visit home (East Aurora) I feel nostalgic, but I'm self-employed these days, working on the internet, and moving back to WNY doesn't remotely pencil out. I look forward to a day when perhaps I can afford to visit more often.

Here in Utah, the state budget is balanced, and our state lawmakers make the painful choices in down years to keep it so. New York, sadly, is like a guy who waits until he weighs 420 pounds to start dieting. A long, discouraging road with unappealing options.

 

[heydaybegone]

Here in Utah, the state budget is balanced, and our state lawmakers make the painful choices in down years to keep it so. New York, sadly, is like a guy who waits until he weighs 420 pounds to start dieting. A long, discouraging road with unappealing options

Paul, my friend, you spell it out nicely (disclaimer: no offense intended to anyone thinking it reflects on them). Nuff said...

HDBG

 

[caveman-97]

Buffalo would quickly become the biggest boomtown in the nation if someone could figure out a way to make it thirty degrees warmer in the winter. I might even come back.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Buffalo would quickly become the biggest boomtown in the nation if someone could figure out a way to make it thirty degrees warmer in the winter. I might even come back.

Well, according to Al Gore...

 

[listener-in]

Some of the fast-growing southern and western states have been profligate in their use of water - and they know it, because each year they have a harder time meeting their wants. I predict that, sooner rather than later, the low-tax, low-spend, states-rights sunbelt states will be begging Congress to tax and spend billions of dollars (federal dollars, of course) to divert Great Lakes water in their direction. When that debate takes place, I suspect that many of their people won't want to wait around, they'll just pick up and move to WNY and the rest of the Great lakes Region.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

Some of the fast-growing southern and western states have been profligate in their use of water - and they know it, because each year they have a harder time meeting their wants. I predict that, sooner rather than later, the low-tax, low-spend, states-rights sunbelt states will be begging Congress to tax and spend billions of dollars (federal dollars, of course) to divert Great Lakes water in their direction. When that debate takes place, I suspect that many of their people won't want to wait around, they'll just pick up and move to WNY and the rest of the Great lakes Region.

This may indeed be a serious issue sooner than later. The Great Lakes Basin Compact, to which the Provinces of Ontario and Quebec are parties, defines the use and restricts the export of Great Lakes water to southern states without consent.