CBS Must Regret KFWB Format Flip!

[radio-blogger]

With today's Arbitron PPM report, it appears KNX has jumped to #9 12+ in Los Angeles with a 3.3.
KFWB at a distant 0.7... so there is the answer. KFI took a bit of a hit down to a 4.0, so maybe CBS's strategy worked?

R.I.P KFWB!

 

[dustintv]

The thinking was that finding a unique niche for the weaker signal (KFWB) would allow KNX to consolidate the pure news audience and hopefully crack a 3. They're close to that now, moving 2.5-2.6-2.8.

Trouble is, CBS was no doubt hoping that the unique niche for KFWB would do better than a 0.7.

That's certainly a valid point indeed, especially as radio-blogger had mentioned with today's PPM report for LA. While I'm happy to see KNX doing better with that 3.3, its a horrific shame that KFWB is now in the AM graveyard for good.

 

[michael hagerty]

The thinking was that finding a unique niche for the weaker signal (KFWB) would allow KNX to consolidate the pure news audience and hopefully crack a 3. They're close to that now, moving 2.5-2.6-2.8.

Trouble is, CBS was no doubt hoping that the unique niche for KFWB would do better than a 0.7.

That's certainly a valid point indeed, especially as radio-blogger had mentioned with today's PPM report for LA. While I'm happy to see KNX doing better with that 3.3, its a horrific shame that KFWB is now in the AM graveyard for good.

Assuming KNX's newfound status as a Top 10 station is sustainable, CBS can now, if it wants to, turn its attention to improving KFWB. It looks like 0.7 may be the floor for them (you have to figure the old audience is all gone now), so it wouldn't be impossible, even with syndicated talk programming, to get it back into the mid to upper 1s.

Then CBS would have KFWB's numbers about where they were before the switch but with much lower overhead and a much stronger KNX. If that happens, you really have to consider it a success, and despite the history and sentiment attached to KFWB, it may be the best you can do with 5kw at 980 AM in Los Angeles these days.

 

[Deluge]

The thinking was that finding a unique niche for the weaker signal (KFWB) would allow KNX to consolidate the pure news audience and hopefully crack a 3. They're close to that now, moving 2.5-2.6-2.8.

Trouble is, CBS was no doubt hoping that the unique niche for KFWB would do better than a 0.7.

That's certainly a valid point indeed, especially as radio-blogger had mentioned with today's PPM report for LA. While I'm happy to see KNX doing better with that 3.3, its a horrific shame that KFWB is now in the AM graveyard for good.

Assuming KNX's newfound status as a Top 10 station is sustainable, CBS can now, if it wants to, turn its attention to improving KFWB. It looks like 0.7 may be the floor for them (you have to figure the old audience is all gone now), so it wouldn't be impossible, even with syndicated talk programming, to get it back into the mid to upper 1s.

Then CBS would have KFWB's numbers about where they were before the switch but with much lower overhead and a much stronger KNX. If that happens, you really have to consider it a success, and despite the history and sentiment attached to KFWB, it may be the best you can do with 5kw at 980 AM in Los Angeles these days.

I don't think its safe to assume KNX becomes a consistent top 10, however news seems to be becoming a big force of a format in the major cities. Also the assumption that KFWB has hit its low might still be preliminary considering its consistent cume downfall. The plan was probably to hike KNX over a 3 and possibly a 4 at some point, but it wasn't supposed to come at such an expense for KFWB, it was expected that their N/T programming would do well, obviously it has bombed and their numbers continue to prove it. I think they can afford to give this sinking ship another 3 declines without any significant improvement before they pull the plug. And should KNX have somehow topped out where they are right now then CBS' plan will really have hurt them

 

[TheBigA]

I think they can afford to give this sinking ship another 3 declines without any significant improvement before they pull the plug.

And then do what?

 

[michael hagerty]

I don't think its safe to assume KNX becomes a consistent top 10, however news seems to be becoming a big force of a format in the major cities. Also the assumption that KFWB has hit its low might still be preliminary considering its consistent cume downfall. The plan was probably to hike KNX over a 3 and possibly a 4 at some point, but it wasn't supposed to come at such an expense for KFWB, it was expected that their N/T programming would do well, obviously it has bombed and their numbers continue to prove it. I think they can afford to give this sinking ship another 3 declines without any significant improvement before they pull the plug. And should KNX have somehow topped out where they are right now then CBS' plan will really have hurt them

It's worth remembering that pre-PPM, the amount of time passed here is equivalent to one full book. You're suggesting that they might pull the plug after the equivalent of two?

As for the "consistent cume downfall", KFWB lost 81,600 listeners between September and October. Between October and November, they lost 1,700 (by contrast, KABC lost 96,700 between October and November). That suggests to me that the free-fall is over and the bottom is probably pretty close to where KFWB is now.

 

[davideduardo]

I don't think its safe to assume KNX becomes a consistent top 10,

The issue is not about top 10 12+ but about maintaining a good 25-54 position (inside the top 20) and being, now, the unique news and traffic station in LA.

however news seems to be becoming a big force of a format in the major cities.

Overall, the all news format is flat to down compared to, let's say, 10 years ago. And it's a market by market comparison. NY has lost over 3 all news shares (12+ for the sake of using accessable data). LA was off by about 50% prior to KFWB changing. Other markets, like Philly, are flat. Where all news is up (SF and DC) is where the format has moved (WTOP) or simulcast (KCBS) on FM, making the format more appealing to the 35-54 segment which was eroding over time.

This is the most expensive format in the industry, so KNX's conversion to the sole provider makes a lot of sense.

Also the assumption that KFWB has hit its low might still be preliminary considering its consistent cume downfall.

I'm given to understand that its 25-54 cume is well within the range it had in the period prior to the format change. Further, lower cume is required for news/talk than all news as the TSL is quite regularly much higher... so a cume comparison is not valid. Talk formats are bought based on AQH person or rating (same number expressed in different ways) and not cume, anyway.

The plan was probably to hike KNX over a 3 and possibly a 4 at some point, but it wasn't supposed to come at such an expense for KFWB, it was expected that their N/T programming would do well, obviously it has bombed and their numbers continue to prove it. I think they can afford to give this sinking ship another 3 declines without any significant improvement before they pull the plug. And should KNX have somehow topped out where they are right now then CBS' plan will really have hurt them

The format has had less time than the equivalent of a single diary based book. It took KFI the better part of a decade to become domiant... so I doubt that there is any panic at KFWB... the job was to cut costs between the two stations and then look for revenue like infomercials for KFWB. KFWB's signal is not fully competitive, and it has, still, a questionable market cap status for CBS, so there might be other forces in play.

In any case, KNX appears to be able to sustain a position inside the top 20 in 25-54 and has a unique sales position. CBS has cut the costs of two expensive news formats, and can concentrate on the performance of KNX.

Nobody at CBS could even seriously dream of KFWB quickly (or maybe ever) getting to a 3 share 12+... that would almost be Top 10. And a 4 share would be only slightly below what KFI has been getting this year and about 4th in the market1

 

[Deluge]

I think they can afford to give this sinking ship another 3 declines without any significant improvement before they pull the plug.

And then do what?

probably switch back to all news

 

[TheBigA]

probably switch back to all news

You must be joking! Haven't you been reading this thread?

 

[Deluge]

hey maybe im dreaming a little bit, but i don't think the programming at kfwb will turn around its numbers any time soon, and these days, with CBS being where it is and the revs for CBS radio being what they are i still don't think they can afford such a consistently dismal station in such a large market where they have potential to do better with different programming. I do think their is a possibility of kfwb pulling the plug on the current format and switching back to news, i certainly hope this happens.

 

[ChannelFlipper]

hey maybe im dreaming a little bit, but i don't think the programming at kfwb will turn around its numbers any time soon, and these days, with CBS being where it is and the revs for CBS radio being what they are i still don't think they can afford such a consistently dismal station in such a large market where they have potential to do better with different programming. I do think their is a possibility of kfwb pulling the plug on the current format and switching back to news, i certainly hope this happens.

Only if the name of this town is Fantasy Land. If there is one thing that has been demonstrated quite forcefully over the last several years, it is that LA simply cannnot (or will not) support two newsradio stations. Gathering and presenting news is very labor intensive and the total number of shares in whatever demo you care to choose are simply not there. Even when they did the obvious management action a few years back, combining the personnel of each station and running two stations with effectively one newsroom, the economics still didn't work.

Musicfan's FM Hot Talk will be back before another AM newser is seen in this town.

 

[TheBigA]

i don't think the programming at kfwb will turn around its numbers any time soon,

It's not a short term fix, and switching back to news will only hurt KNX.

As others have said, the signal is not worth the expense.

 

[radiojomo]

This move was actually fairly smart for CBS, in my opinion. When KFWB was doing All News, they were just competing with themselves with KNX. When they started doing "Hollywood News", this format was a train wreck. Who would actually NEED and LISTEN to that? All News/Talk formats need to evolve over time, its only been a few months since KFWB made the switch, KFWB could POSSIBLY be sheading some audience share or cume from KFI. but really there's nothing else they can do that would make them better. AM Sports? No. AM All News? Competition for themselves? I think not. Not only that, but brokering time will definately make this a worthy property owned by CBS. Sadly, AM signals can't do much than talk, news or sports. Although there are exceptions like KHJ and KGIL...

 

[ixnay]

If there is one thing that has been demonstrated quite forcefully over the last several years, it is that LA simply cannnot (or will not) support two newsradio stations.

We're still waiting for an explanation as to why NYC can, though, as was pointed out earlier on this thread.

ixnay

 

[michael hagerty]

If there is one thing that has been demonstrated quite forcefully over the last several years, it is that LA simply cannnot (or will not) support two newsradio stations.

We're still waiting for an explanation as to why NYC can, though, as was pointed out earlier on this thread.

ixnay

New York has always been a stronger news radio market than L.A. WCBS and WINS combined have a 9.2 in the November PPM (WCBS 5.2 and WINS 4.0)...strong enough numbers for both stations to make money.

For the past few years, the combined KNX/KFWB number has been between a 3.0 and a 3.5...workable on one station, but horrible when split between two.

 

[SandyG]

Everyone is looking at the 6+ ratings here and saying KFWB is dead. Do you have access to the costs and revenues? How much (if anything) are they paying for most of the syndicated shows?

 

[Gregg]

Why can NYC support two all-news stations and LA can't?

I posed this question about a year ago. I had a few ideas and David Eduardo supplied a few.

1) For some reason, there are no, repeat no, all-news stations in Sunbelt cities, except LA. For a while there were all-news stations in Houston, Dallas (CBS tried only a couple of years ago with 50,000 watt KRLD), Miami, San Diego (KOGO was all-news briefly) but they're gone. Never a localized all-news station in Atlanta, Tampa, Orlando, Phoenix, San Antonio, New Orleans. (Some Sunbelt cities may have had an NIS network station during that brief experiment but not afterward.) If the weather's nice, life is lived at a different pace and perhaps people don't care about news on their radio? You would have thought that traffic and weather together every ten minutes 24/7 would have kept KFWB and other Sunbelt all-news stations in business, but I guess that's not enough.

2) LA's ethnic breakdown limits the number of potential listeners to all-news. 60% of the market is Latino. Yes, some are fluent in English and want to know the news. But for many, English proficiency is a barrier. NY has a large Hispanic population too but perhaps it's a bit older and more fluent. Let's also remember Puerto Ricans, NYC's principal Hispanic group, were U.S. citizens before they ever arrived on the mainland. Even if they commute back and forth between the island and NYC, what happens with the President and in Washington is already something they've been keeping track of.

3) David says KFI is so strong, many radio listeners may simply get their info from KFI's newscasts or talk shows and don't feel they need an all-news station.

4) David also says TV News is so strong in LA that many people get their news fix from TV before getting in their cars.

Here's another stat for you. WINS is #1 in morning drive in NYC and WCBS is #2. KFWB and KNX never made the top 10 in morning drive in the last few years. And another stat: After Lite-FM, the Clear Channel Soft AC station, WINS is the second best billing station in NYC and WCBS is third. Again, KNX and KFWB are not even in the top 10 in LA.

So if most LA drivers are sitting in never-ending traffic jams listening to Ryan Seacrest or El Cucay, instead of spending a few minutes with KFWB or KNX to get a traffic update, maybe a weather forecast and some headlines, this is apparently what they want.




Gregg
[email protected]

 

[michael hagerty]

Everyone is looking at the 6+ ratings here and saying KFWB is dead. Do you have access to the costs and revenues? How much (if anything) are they paying for most of the syndicated shows?

Sandy: Well, not everybody. If you go back to yesterday morning, you'll find a post from me suggesting that the ratings slide might be over, that refinement and promtion could get KFWB's numbers back into the mid-1s and that with its lowered overhead, that could be just fine...to say nothing of the beneficial effect on KNX's billings by havin the all-news audience to itself and being Top 10.

 

[ercjncpr]

[Who'd buy it, what would they pay for it and what could they successfully program on it?]

Don't worry , CBS is calling Chuck Blore now....... ;D

 

[michael hagerty]

[Who'd buy it, what would they pay for it and what could they successfully program on it?]

Don't worry , CBS is calling Chuck Blore now....... ;D

Of course! The return of Color Radio! Elliott Field, Gary Owens, Ted Randal, Wink Martindale and Sam Riddle are alive,rested and ready!