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Chris Lee Resigns
- Thread starter SirRoxalot
- Start date
This very topic came to mind after Mr. Barechest resigned. NY Congressional 26 cuts across Buffalo and Rochester, as noted on this map. It's a large district. The Rochester and Buffalo radio and television stations owe Chris Lee and House Speaker John Boehner (who reportedly told Lee his club membership was terminated), a case of champagne.
NY 26 registration leans Republican 60-40, but after Lee's antics it's conceivable that Dems have a chance. The larger question is, given that congressional districts will be re-drawn, is this a two year seat? Both parties are apt to spend a lot of money for a seat that might be consolidated in two years as a result of the population loss measured by the 2010 census. Who runs? The party bosses will pick the candidates largely, I think, on how much money the candidates themselves are able to bring to the race. Tha national committees will be watching closely and step in if the polling gets out of hand. Expect to hear a lot of sturm and drang about "the job killing health care bill" and "tax cuts for the rich." (Please let's not get into a political braw here, I mentioned talking points for each party.) The Repubs don't want to lose the district. The Dems want to make the Repubs work for it.
Now here's the "let's get back to radio" payoff question: If you were a buyer for either party, what radio stations would you buy? I'd be all over WHAM, WYRK, WBEE and WBEN, with some money on WYSL and WBTA. I think this race will be like a primary, with a light to medium turnout by the party stalwarts, primarily 35+. How much of the ad pie will radio get for this race? I'm thinking TV gets at least 60%. I hope the mods don't toss this thread. It's a very good on-radio topic. Props to Rox for posting.
NY 26 registration leans Republican 60-40, but after Lee's antics it's conceivable that Dems have a chance. The larger question is, given that congressional districts will be re-drawn, is this a two year seat? Both parties are apt to spend a lot of money for a seat that might be consolidated in two years as a result of the population loss measured by the 2010 census. Who runs? The party bosses will pick the candidates largely, I think, on how much money the candidates themselves are able to bring to the race. Tha national committees will be watching closely and step in if the polling gets out of hand. Expect to hear a lot of sturm and drang about "the job killing health care bill" and "tax cuts for the rich." (Please let's not get into a political braw here, I mentioned talking points for each party.) The Repubs don't want to lose the district. The Dems want to make the Repubs work for it.
Now here's the "let's get back to radio" payoff question: If you were a buyer for either party, what radio stations would you buy? I'd be all over WHAM, WYRK, WBEE and WBEN, with some money on WYSL and WBTA. I think this race will be like a primary, with a light to medium turnout by the party stalwarts, primarily 35+. How much of the ad pie will radio get for this race? I'm thinking TV gets at least 60%. I hope the mods don't toss this thread. It's a very good on-radio topic. Props to Rox for posting.
B
Bob1370
Guest
I think each party should try a different group of radio stations to get its core motivated through effective ads. For the Republicans, they'll bring out their base on WHAM and WBEN. Democrats should try a wide variety of music stations aiming at 18-49s. Start with WCMF and 97 Rock, then try hot AC like Star 102.5, 80s-90s rock like the Buzz. The Dems should also put spots on WPXY and WDKX in Rochester and WBLK and WKSE in Buffalo to tap the 18-34s, and you need all those stations to hit both urban and suburban listeners. You get the idea...Democratic core voters and Republican core voters are different demographically. Republicans are older, whiter and more male. Democrats are more ethnically varied, and younger. That fact should drive the parties' ad buys.
It's all about turnout. Spending money on 18-34's is inefficient. Sorry, their record on voting is abysmal, especially in mid-term and special elections such as this. The Dems should spend money on neo-con 930 and 1180 if for no other reason than to reach prospective voters who aren't aligned with the stations' politics, but listen for news and weather. I agree with Bob1370's use of Star, Buzz, 97 and 96.5. DKX? Not so much. It's a 12-34 station. Spend the money wheer it's going to get you the most bang for the buck with listeners that are likely to vote.
You guys seem to be forgetting women voters 45+. I'll bet that WJYE gets a piece, along with WHTT, which is a bit more balanced male/female. WRRM in Rochester will also be grabbin' for their share.
There's gonna be a chunk of change up for grabs. TV will get the lions share, but radio could have a brighter than expected March.
There's gonna be a chunk of change up for grabs. TV will get the lions share, but radio could have a brighter than expected March.
I don't see NY-26 getting dissolved; it's too solidly Republican and its surrounded by areas too solidly Republican. There's no easy way to re-draw it that'll get you enough Democrats to hold it.
Personally, if I had to guess...and a guess this is...I'd say NY-24 & -25 are prime targets to be consolidated. In the last election and the one before it, they were very close wins. Re-draw to include a smidge more of eastern Rochester and a smidge more of Ithaca and you could end up with a district that'll be safely Democrat most years. Added bonus: you get rid of the reasonably-solid Hanna right now in favor of "I didn't realize I was a government employee now" Buerkle who's like as not to self-destruct between now and 2012.
Then again, even after more than 3 years of living here (and working for a news station) I look at Albany and just shake my head in bewilderment quite a lot. What seems logical often has no place in that strange land... :
Personally, if I had to guess...and a guess this is...I'd say NY-24 & -25 are prime targets to be consolidated. In the last election and the one before it, they were very close wins. Re-draw to include a smidge more of eastern Rochester and a smidge more of Ithaca and you could end up with a district that'll be safely Democrat most years. Added bonus: you get rid of the reasonably-solid Hanna right now in favor of "I didn't realize I was a government employee now" Buerkle who's like as not to self-destruct between now and 2012.
Then again, even after more than 3 years of living here (and working for a news station) I look at Albany and just shake my head in bewilderment quite a lot. What seems logical often has no place in that strange land... :
aaronread said:Then again, even after more than 3 years of living here (and working for a news station) I look at Albany and just shake my head in bewilderment quite a lot. What seems logical often has no place in that strange land... :
Those of us who've been in NY a lot longer than 3 years could not agree more with the concept of Albany being a strange land. Now, back to the radio portion of this thread...
Albany is as much in touch with NY as DC is in touch with the rest of the country.
B
Bob1370
Guest
Aaron Read says, "I don't see NY-26 getting dissolved; it's too solidly Republican and its surrounded by areas too solidly Republican. There's no easy way to re-draw it that'll get you enough Democrats to hold it"
Mmm, not so sure that isn't the very reason it's a goner. It's lost more population than almost any other district in the state, which makes it vulnerable in any redistricting plan that can pass the Court of Appeals. It's also going to be easy to merge with Tom Reed's district to the south. My guess is that the GOP will fight harder to maintain some other district further to the east, and let Tom Reed defend the party flag in western NY. This matters to us because it may well limit how much the party is willing to invest in radio and TV ads to hold it.
Mmm, not so sure that isn't the very reason it's a goner. It's lost more population than almost any other district in the state, which makes it vulnerable in any redistricting plan that can pass the Court of Appeals. It's also going to be easy to merge with Tom Reed's district to the south. My guess is that the GOP will fight harder to maintain some other district further to the east, and let Tom Reed defend the party flag in western NY. This matters to us because it may well limit how much the party is willing to invest in radio and TV ads to hold it.
Boy, if that map isn't the classic definition of "gerrymandering", I don't know what is. What a freakin' mess - all to create "safe" districts instead of simply representing people with similar interests.
SirRoxalot said:
Someone said it best this way - instead of voters choosing their representatives, representatives choose their voters.
Gerry Mandering... as the Beav? (Sorry.) Quick. Rimshot: Gray Fidelipac. Rattling tension bar and worn tape pads.
Getting back on topic and returning to some semblance of order, some folks might wonder about the actual term "Gerrymander." Additional background here.
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