What does 2012 hold for both markets. What stations do you see vulnerable for a flip and what kind of stations would you like to see debut in each market and why? Just curious thanks?
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Cincinnati/Dayton Radio Predictions 2012
- Thread starter richstrunck
- Start date
I see few if any changes happening in Dayton, unless 94.5 and 106.5 are finally sold by CC as was rumored on here a few weeks back. I seriously doubt we'll see a move-in like CLiCK 101.5 last March. My guess is that K-99 and Hot continue their dominance in the market.richstrunck said:What does 2012 hold for both markets. What stations do you see vulnerable for a flip and what kind of stations would you like to see debut in each market and why? Just curious thanks?
In Cincinnati, I look for 97.3 to flip to something else besides Country. They ought to slap The Sound back on there IMO. Other than that, I see nothing else happening.
Since WCLI was a failure it would be a good idea to go back to Country. With there stick closer to Dayton they can eat a few more shares away from WHKO and generate a lot more revenue after their huge loss in revenue with Click this year.
Radio Dude said:Since WCLI was a failure it would be a good idea to go back to Country. With there stick closer to Dayton they can eat a few more shares away from WHKO and generate a lot more revenue after their huge loss in revenue with Click this year.
Click is a great station, but like I predicted before, they should have went for more of an Adult CHR then Modern AC.
You can't call Click a failure if it's doing what it was designed to do; chip away at both The X and Mix. It's not going anywhere. Mainline is targeting Clear Channel and leaving Country alone.
How many more formats for 94.1 this year?
How many more formats for 94.1 this year?
Dayton: Looking at the latest Arb for Dayton, Where someone gets the idea Click is hurting WMMX is wrong, MMX just had there best book in a year 6.4 up over a share since last year and Click has only a 1 share, even if you spread the target demo.. Its about ratings and revunue. They could tweek and go Adult CHR like Q102 in Cincy and it may help them, since there is a hole in that market for that format. If someone buys "Lite" and "Big" I could see "Big" doing country, no one is going to relegate that signal to Richmond, like Ive seen on posts on this blog site before, There is almost 13 shares out there to split between WHKO and WBZI, Click though will not return to that format, even with a better signal. With "Rebel" gone someone may put country on a stick and head for the younger demos, It will be all about a selling the new cluster to advertisers. Remember though it not just a about 12 plus numbers put getting solid numbers in your demo that you can sell as well.
Cincinnati: Cumulus will not flip 94.1 again and I expect them to pull a 3.5 to a 4.0 share in there first year(remember besides B105 there are 3.5 shares on other country outlets WYGY 1.7, WNKR 1.7 and WSCH 0.9, all three with weaker signals). Dale O'Brian (WNNFs new PD) is known for turning out solid country stations. Great Country will be live Mornings, Live or VT'd Middays, Live afternoons and run one of the nationally syndicated night shows and jukeboxed overnight(This is the Cumulus norm even in smaller markets with country). Maybe bring Bill Whyte back teamed with Amanda Orlando or put Dale on, he has a solid track record in mornings as well. Maybe team him with Orlando.
Hubbard wil switch WYGY to a station that will compete against the Cumulus stations to keep there Cluster numbers up there. It will have to be format that can compete on that signal . Maybe 60's/70s Oldies or some sort of Fresh AC or Soft AC to compete against Warm 98, AC there being the better option since Journey is gone, keep in mind Journey in its PPM was seventh overall in cume but only got a 1.7.
Cincinnati: Cumulus will not flip 94.1 again and I expect them to pull a 3.5 to a 4.0 share in there first year(remember besides B105 there are 3.5 shares on other country outlets WYGY 1.7, WNKR 1.7 and WSCH 0.9, all three with weaker signals). Dale O'Brian (WNNFs new PD) is known for turning out solid country stations. Great Country will be live Mornings, Live or VT'd Middays, Live afternoons and run one of the nationally syndicated night shows and jukeboxed overnight(This is the Cumulus norm even in smaller markets with country). Maybe bring Bill Whyte back teamed with Amanda Orlando or put Dale on, he has a solid track record in mornings as well. Maybe team him with Orlando.
Hubbard wil switch WYGY to a station that will compete against the Cumulus stations to keep there Cluster numbers up there. It will have to be format that can compete on that signal . Maybe 60's/70s Oldies or some sort of Fresh AC or Soft AC to compete against Warm 98, AC there being the better option since Journey is gone, keep in mind Journey in its PPM was seventh overall in cume but only got a 1.7.
Correcting my math WYGY 1.7, WNKR 1.7, WSCH 0.9 thats 4.3 shares for other Country signals in Cincy
richstrunck said:Dayton: Looking at the latest Arb for Dayton, Cincinnati: Cumulus will not flip 94.1 again and I expect them to pull a 3.5 to a 4.0 share in there first year(remember besides B105 there are 3.5 shares on other country outlets WYGY 1.7, WNKR 1.7 and WSCH 0.9, all three with weaker signals). Dale O'Brian (WNNFs new PD) is known for turning out solid country stations. Great Country will be live Mornings, Live or VT'd Middays, Live afternoons and run one of the nationally syndicated night shows and jukeboxed overnight(This is the Cumulus norm even in smaller markets with country). Maybe bring Bill Whyte back teamed with Amanda Orlando or put Dale on, he has a solid track record in mornings as well. Maybe team him with Orlando.
Agreed. Dale will do a solid job. I worked for him at The Beat in Atlanta and he's always on point. He'll do whatever Cumulus hired him to do and do it well. Great guy and a solid programmer.
Journey did do well in PPM, and I thought that was what was keeping it alive, but like you said, it's all about revenue and when you break it down 25-44, it had nothing on Q and Rewind.
Click loves the Modern AC format they got going on, and they love their Facebook fans, so I'm not expecting them to change it. I'd love for it to launch as an Adult CHR though. Mix is sounding A LOT better. They're playing less 80's and more CHR, as Hot AC should be these days.
97.3 needs to flip, and sure The Sound would be nice to have again. But, 97.3 is set up to just act as a second option for country listeners, NOT to compete. I think with Journey flipping to country, 97.3 has no other option. AC? Maybe.... let's not forget they have Rewind in that building. I'd love for it to go Rhythmic.
Click loves the Modern AC format they got going on, and they love their Facebook fans, so I'm not expecting them to change it. I'd love for it to launch as an Adult CHR though. Mix is sounding A LOT better. They're playing less 80's and more CHR, as Hot AC should be these days.
97.3 needs to flip, and sure The Sound would be nice to have again. But, 97.3 is set up to just act as a second option for country listeners, NOT to compete. I think with Journey flipping to country, 97.3 has no other option. AC? Maybe.... let's not forget they have Rewind in that building. I'd love for it to go Rhythmic.
A "Fresh" type AC for WYGY if it did well and was executed properly could help Hubbard put away the competition with females 25-54, with Q102, Rewind and B105 in the building. It would also protect the cluster better. It couldnt be a Journey 80s,90s and Today type of station but a 90's,2k and today similar to Hubbards KS95 in Minneapolis, I used to work in that market and what a great sounding station that is.
Yes it would which is why Hubbard won't put AC on 97.3. Has anyone heard of 97.1 The Drive, that Hubbard has on in Chicago? It could possibly shave a few points from WGRR and 92.5. It is a good sounding Classic Hits format that would be perfect for them here on that signal.
http://www.wdrv.com/
http://www.wdrv.com/
@themarv, It would not hurt Q102 if executed properly and they would sell it as a combo, I'm not saying hot AC, Im saying more like Fresh 102.7 in New York, very few shared songs between the two. It would hurt Warm 98!
@microbob, Very good insight never thought of that combo. Still think Warm 98 is very vulenarable(Its been underperforming other than at Christmas for some time), Wouldnt the drive though also hurt Rewind(I know there is a Rewind in Chicago as well) different variables different market. The Drives main target is The Loop! Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based formats The Fox, Rewind, MOJO and WGRR. In addition EBN plays a heavy dose of Classic Rock and 96 Rock plays a fair dose too. Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based format. There is only one AC in the market. Im not saying Hot AC, Fresh AC but 90s,2K and today! There would be a big difference musically than Q102, which plays mostly currents and is essentially an Adult CHR sold as a Hot AC.
@microbob, Very good insight never thought of that combo. Still think Warm 98 is very vulenarable(Its been underperforming other than at Christmas for some time), Wouldnt the drive though also hurt Rewind(I know there is a Rewind in Chicago as well) different variables different market. The Drives main target is The Loop! Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based formats The Fox, Rewind, MOJO and WGRR. In addition EBN plays a heavy dose of Classic Rock and 96 Rock plays a fair dose too. Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based format. There is only one AC in the market. Im not saying Hot AC, Fresh AC but 90s,2K and today! There would be a big difference musically than Q102, which plays mostly currents and is essentially an Adult CHR sold as a Hot AC.
Although I'd love to get a Fresh AC, Hubbard would never put something like that on that would hurt Q or Rewind. Not gonna happen. The closest they'd get to a current format, recurrent-friendly or not, would be Rhythmic or Urban.
lovejamminoldies said:Although I'd love to get a Fresh AC, Hubbard would never put something like that on that would hurt Q or Rewind. Not gonna happen. The closest they'd get to a current format, recurrent-friendly or not, would be Rhythmic or Urban.
If we follow this logic, then what is Hubbard doing with WYGY and B105 right now, The only reason were having this discussion is because WYGY did poorly and lacks a good signal for a country format in this market. If we follow this logic then why does Cumulus own both the Classic Hits and Classic Rock stations in the market or why did they create Journey 94.1 when they had Warm 98.
The reason is to keep there listeners in there cluster, even if they sample each others station its better than them from sampling the competition. they are there to protect there demographics. Its there to protect all the stations in the cluster, to keep another company from switching to a format that competes against them.
The reason I think an AC type format would be better suited is Cumulus went after Rewind and Q with the "Journey" format. And it worked for a few months,If you dont believe me look at Rewinds numbers compared to Journey's also look at the Cume numbers. Hubbard is not gonna let this happen again. Cumulus has the Classic Hits/Classic Rock formats sown up, A female friendly format is more likely because that is where they dominate with the exception of Warm 98. By having an AC format they bolster there numbers with female 18-54 numbers and a well executed AC (Journey wasnt) format help the numbers. Cumulus and Clear Channel have the male numbers wrapped up, Hubbard will look to have the female numbers in there camp!
That being said Hubbard may try a rhythmic format but they are not performing well these days.Neither are traditional ACs which is why a Fresh type station is more likely! Warm 98 is crashing and Hubbard knows it. Time will tell and Im not saying this is what Hubbards gonna do but I have some experience with these Clusters and understand there thinking!
I think the main reason why a Fresh station would not work well on 97.3 is because of their weak signal. Can 97.3 be heard in office buildings where most have their radios tuned to Warm 98? I know that Bonneville had a CP to upgrade 97.3 to 25,000 watts on a stick in NKY but backed off because it wouldn't have improved the downtown Cincinnati signal much at all.
Click has a few books left before they start changing things. Maybe, not the format, but music adjustments for sure.
I get what Rich is saying about the cluster, but I don't know if Hubbard thinks the same way. Rewind was set to go after Warm. It's working. Q is getting the best numbers it has seen in years. B105 is consistently performing at the top book after book. The majority of the women in Cincinnati are at Hubbard. All Rewind would have to do is cut back on some of the gold, and add more currents and they'd be a fresh AC. They're already playing more stuff from the 2000's as it is, and they have that "fresh" sound. They are now more AC than Adult Hits. It would not be smart to put another AC on 97.3... I'm not sure if they'd try rhythmic or not, but that'd be smarter because listeners will fight to listen to something other than The Wiz, listeners will not fight to listen to another station playing "feel good favorites" when you have Rewind, Warm, and even Q (which leans CHR). I don't know if I 100% agree with your statement about rhythmic CHR's not doing well. WDHT in Dayton is what is keeping Main Line happy. The #1 or #2 station in the city consistently 12+ and #1 18-34. They have to be in the top 5 25-54 as well. CHR period is at its prime right now. When was the last time WIZF has had some competition? Have they ever? That would probably make big news, easy. We can all agree whatever WYGY puts on there eventually will be women-friendly. AAA-Modern AC? Something closer to Click instead of what was on Frequency 94-1... that was a mess.
I get what Rich is saying about the cluster, but I don't know if Hubbard thinks the same way. Rewind was set to go after Warm. It's working. Q is getting the best numbers it has seen in years. B105 is consistently performing at the top book after book. The majority of the women in Cincinnati are at Hubbard. All Rewind would have to do is cut back on some of the gold, and add more currents and they'd be a fresh AC. They're already playing more stuff from the 2000's as it is, and they have that "fresh" sound. They are now more AC than Adult Hits. It would not be smart to put another AC on 97.3... I'm not sure if they'd try rhythmic or not, but that'd be smarter because listeners will fight to listen to something other than The Wiz, listeners will not fight to listen to another station playing "feel good favorites" when you have Rewind, Warm, and even Q (which leans CHR). I don't know if I 100% agree with your statement about rhythmic CHR's not doing well. WDHT in Dayton is what is keeping Main Line happy. The #1 or #2 station in the city consistently 12+ and #1 18-34. They have to be in the top 5 25-54 as well. CHR period is at its prime right now. When was the last time WIZF has had some competition? Have they ever? That would probably make big news, easy. We can all agree whatever WYGY puts on there eventually will be women-friendly. AAA-Modern AC? Something closer to Click instead of what was on Frequency 94-1... that was a mess.
richstrunck said:@themarv, It would not hurt Q102 if executed properly and they would sell it as a combo, I'm not saying hot AC, Im saying more like Fresh 102.7 in New York, very few shared songs between the two. It would hurt Warm 98!
@microbob, Very good insight never thought of that combo. Still think Warm 98 is very vulenarable(Its been underperforming other than at Christmas for some time), Wouldnt the drive though also hurt Rewind(I know there is a Rewind in Chicago as well) different variables different market. The Drives main target is The Loop! Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based formats The Fox, Rewind, MOJO and WGRR. In addition EBN plays a heavy dose of Classic Rock and 96 Rock plays a fair dose too. Cincinnati is oversaturated with Gold Based format. There is only one AC in the market. Im not saying Hot AC, Fresh AC but 90s,2K and today! There would be a big difference musically than Q102, which plays mostly currents and is essentially an Adult CHR sold as a Hot AC.
Oh, terrific!
We'll have a "Fresh" AC station! Playing tons of "butt rock" and music by terrible, awful, vomit inducing, soccer mom bands like Creed! Or Five For Fighting! Or Nickelback! Or maybe even 3 Doors Down !!!!!!!!! What a swell idea !
???
Rewind is missing many opportunities. It should be positioned as a retro CHR station, reminiscent of the 80's, with a big sound, and strong air personalities.
Although I actually like the bands stereolane is talking about, they will not do a fresh AC on there... if they do, they're stupid. They have all the listeners that would come from that station on Q and Rewind.
Rewind was positioned like that when it first launched, but they evolved it into more of a "Fresh AC" sound. It still sounds excellent though with good air personalities, great imaging, and upbeat music. All of the Hubbard stations have the big city sound.
Rewind was positioned like that when it first launched, but they evolved it into more of a "Fresh AC" sound. It still sounds excellent though with good air personalities, great imaging, and upbeat music. All of the Hubbard stations have the big city sound.
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