Country Rules Trend 2 of Summer

[TakeItFromMe]

For those who wrote off the WOLF, take note. One bad trend means nothing.
12+ had KUBE, KMPS, KOMO, WOLF and KCMS at the top of the ratings.

In the important demos it was all Country this trend with KMPS and WOLF number one or two across the board in adult demos. KMPS had the older adults and WOLF the younger. Clean sweep in trend two for Country.

Big moves by KCMS, MOVIN and JAZZ. MOVIN is taking a huge bite out of KUBE (cut in half this trend) and KBKS (killed everywhere but teens this trend). Friends, success is based on more than one trend. MOVIN has had three up trends, WOLF has been up 6 out of seven since they started.

Big losers: KBKS (the end is near for this station), KIRO (now below 20th in the market in most key demos and KOMO doubles em in morning drive), JACK (this station is over now.) All three of these stations have done poorly for several trends. By the way, for those predicting the end for KMTT and Fisher and West, they had a very nice up trend, as I said they would. BUT the big story in this trend is COUNTRY.

 

[talkerdjdude]

Agree with your analysis. It'll be interesting to see if KMPS settles into taking the older demos, with the Wolf the younger. I'm surprised KMPS hasn't done anything to make its morning show appear/sound younger. Ole Icky is interviewing 90 year olds it seems everytime I check.

Memo to Marcus, your morning show needs to go. I think Movin will continue movin up.

With KIRO being so low in the trend and even showing pitiful 12+ numbers where they were once strong, I have to wonder if they'll ever make a comeback. If management there is hoping they'll hang on until they get the Mariners back in a few years, that'll be too late.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

I agree with the analysis. MOVIN has obliterated KBKS and took a nice chunk out of KUBE this last trend. Country did very well and everyone who thought WOLF and MOVIN were not real formats had better think again.

JACK is over and rumors already abound that they will flip Country to help KMPS flank WOLF. This would be an excellent move. Infinity did this before effectively with Young Country. MOVIN is taking a surprising amount of JACK audience as well, so is the WOLF.

KIRO is in deep trouble. They are rumored to be looking at taking the format to one of their FM stations and simulcasting. This is being done effectively in a number of markets, including Entercom stations. KOMO is killing them in mornings and with the Mariners. KVI, KJR, KPTK and KTTH are all bringing up the basement of the ratings. Tough times for AM radio.

 

[djdan]

Beware the trends, however there are some patterns taking shape:
1. JACK is in steep decline. Year to year the station is 1/3 what is was.
2. KBKS is in steep decline. KUBE soundly beats them and now MOVIN has left them with nothing but 12-21.
3. KIRO is in steep decline. No AM is doing very well, outside of baseball, but KIRO is 1/4 the station is was 25-54 a couple of years ago.

These three stations have had almost a year now of declining ratings, so I would agree they are troubled and will face sales issues as buyers look at the four-book. Still too early for MOVIN or WOLF. If they continue to hold on to numbers by Spring of next year, you could have a story.

Rest of the market is pretty unchanged. Is WOLF a 12 month format? Is MOVIN even a 12 month format? Check back next Spring, for now they are both growing and will be fun to watch.

 

[e-menace]

I disagree with Movin stealing anyone's pot of gold, KBKS is always troubled, Wolf is worrying KMPS for a good reason, JACK was smack, and the same will be said for Movin come 08. Sorry.

Butts dancing on the TV don't make a KUBE killer.

 

[yoyo205]

JACK is over and rumors already abound that they will flip Country to help KMPS flank WOLF. This would be an excellent move. Infinity did this before effectively with Young Country. MOVIN is taking a surprising amount of JACK audience as well, so is the WOLF.

Do you really think CBS would really flip JACK to country? It would be a smart move, if you KNOW you can beat the Wolf. What would it take for a new country station to take out enough of the Wolf for 100.7fm to flip? Doing a 'JACK' type format of a country station, going jockless?? If CBS were to flip JACK to country, it would need to happen soon before listeners get comfortable with the WOLF airstaff, and consider them 'family'. That's what happened with KMPS, you have jocks on long enough, they become part of your 'family' so to speak.

Is there a reason that JACK isn't hiring jocks yet? Wasn't that whole jockless contract up months ago? My guess is that JACK is not going to hire jocks because it will be flipping. So the question is now what will it flip to.. Well country would be the smart move in order to defeat The Wolf, but that would make a total of 4 country stations in market 14. A lot of CBS stations are picking up the FM talk 'FREE FM'. Possibility?

Especially with Tom Leykis currently without a 3-7pm affiliate, that would be a smart move. If not, maybe one of the struggling AM's should pick up Leykis (as if that will happen, WAY too controversial for KIRO or KVI).

 

[CCMilesD]

Especially with Tom Leykis currently without a 3-7pm affiliate, that would be a smart move. If not, maybe one of the struggling AM's should pick up Leykis (as if that will happen, WAY too controversial for KIRO or KVI).

The question is, has Leykis been gone from Seattle drive for to long?? Would CBS starting a Free-FM station get priority over Entercom stations that have already bought shows? Half of the Free-FM lineup is already here, Adam on KNDD, Leykis on KISW.

Also, what effect will the seahawks have on KIROs next book??

 

[AQH]

Does anyone realize the costs of launching a third country station, let alone a second CBS country station? Does anyone realize the sales and market franchise implications to this? Sure, it's great material for a board like this, but things are thought out differently in the real world.

An FM talker would cost a lot more money than Jack does right now. Even The Buzz had a live, local morning show (albeit not very good). Part of Jack's appeal, both to listeners and station management like it or not, is the fact that it's jockless.

Even with the declining numbers, CBS is better off with Jack. Not only that, they're likely locked into a contract with SparkNet, complete with an astronomical buy-out clause should CBS decide to bail.

CBS needs to do something with Kiss before Jack.

 

[dan_greenberg1500]

AQH I definitely agree that something needs to be done with KISS before CBS does anything with JACK. Marcus D seemed like a solid afternoon talent but now he's off air. Were his numbers any good? Plus are Jackie and Bender slipping that much where they need to be booted? Or is this a case of a simple tweak of the music to get everything back to normal?

As far as Jack is concerned, even though its inexpensive to run and still turns a profit, there comes a time that the numbers drop so much that advertisers start looking elsewhere. If that time has come, it doesn't matter if it's cheap to run, something will have to be done to bring back the advertising dollars. I don't see CBS going with a Free-FM up here since the rest of them haven't been doing so great. If for some reason they did put one up here, I would think they have the right to pull Carolla and Leykis off the stations they are on now. I don't know how that works but if CBS did launch a Free-FM up here, I could see Leykis heading over but as far as Carolla is concerned, I think his days are numbered with CBS. His numbers are lousy in LA, SF, and San Diego so I don't management at CBS giving him any additional markets.

 

[talkerdjdude]

As I recall, Infinity bought Young Country and then destroyed it, so it wasn't like they had intentions to keep two country stations all along. I don't think they'd want another one, although Jack is likely to be changed into something else. I'm surprised old Icky keeps hanging on despite the below average people around him, which says something about how country listeners are still loyal to their radio stations.

 

[yoyo205]

I just love how Fitz (TakeItFromMe) is always the first one to run to the message boards whenever the Wolf has a great trend. If you recall, last trend when the Wolf completely tanked, nothing from TakeItFromMe.

Wolf did have a great trend, remember only a trend.

 

[WarpFactor]

I find it funny how you seem to be always attacking Fitz.

So YoYo... are you Becky? Or Tony? Or some other KMPS lackey?

And yes, it was only a trend, but "trend" defined is, "a pattern of change over time in some variable of interest. Having trend data for some variable implies multiple instances of that variable."

So a good trend is a good thing, showing a measurable pattern of change. Thus, The Wolf having increasing good numbers in the monthlies indicates an UPWARD trend in overall ratings.

Watch those cume and TSL numbers Becky. The Wolf is at the door. And he's hungry.

 

[yoyo205]

And what's a bad trend Warp? Didn't mention that in your blurb. Wolf completely bombed in July. What does that mean Warp, please, oh please tell me!

 

[WarpFactor]

And what's a bad trend Warp? Didn't mention that in your blurb. Wolf completely bombed in July. What does that mean Warp, please, oh please tell me!

C'mon Becky. you know every station (even KMPS) has a bad trend. The simple fact is, The Wolf is hammering the hell out of KMPS, and the monthlies show it. How else could a brand new station grow to #4 12+ and a tie for 2nd 25-54 in less than a year?

And please, spare us all the rhetoric about "it's only been 2 books". The Wolf is a growing concern.

Live with it.

 

[ty]

Haven't we overlooked the not-so obvious here ladies and gentleman? KAPS could very well be the "real silent threat" to the new stations. KMPS already has their captive audience. All this attack on KMPS, Meanwhile, a quite storm brews, a tip-toer if you will. What? the greater Mount Vernon folk have something up their sleeve? -- Believe me folks, this is certainly an eye-opener. I was fooled too.Until I connected the dots. It became so
clear to me one night as I lay back counting the stains on my ceiling. OF COURSE! This race for country hegomony? You got it, 660! The strategy, plain and simple, sit quite, calm and cool, let everyone else duke it out, sure,
no one pays attention to a silent fellow in the corner...

then POW! Right in the proverbial choochmuck! Right in the kisser! Right smack dab in the chops!

A big blanket marketing strategy, quasi accents, Can Con, licorice root beer and all. Now you tell me, who could possibly top that? What stroke of genius? sorry KAPS, I didn't mean to blow your cover, but let's all play fair, no poker faces. Styrofoam that resembles an animal foot, flashy light doo dads?

The foam works as a car shammy, and the doo dads, you ask? they work well to deter people from breaking into cars if you put one in the ashtray.

Always practical, thank you styro foam hand and red flashing light.





entertainment purposes only.

 

[yoyo205]

And what's a bad trend Warp? Didn't mention that in your blurb. Wolf completely bombed in July. What does that mean Warp, please, oh please tell me!

How else could a brand new station grow to #4 12+ and a tie for 2nd 25-54 in less than a year?

How about a million dollar ad campaign, the Wolf BOUGHT AND PAID for their numbers.

 

[WarpFactor]

How about a million dollar ad campaign, the Wolf BOUGHT AND PAID for their numbers.

And advertising a superior product is wrong, why?

If the station sucked, the ads would be moot.

Try again.

 

[yoyo205]

How about a million dollar ad campaign, the Wolf BOUGHT AND PAID for their numbers.

And advertising a superior product is wrong, why?

If the station sucked, the ads would be moot.

Try again.

Alright bud, we'll see. Once that ad money runs out, we'll see how the Wolf lasts. Entercom has spent so much money on KKWF, if they don't perform once that ad money runs out, pretty sure we'll see the Wolf get its balls snipped.

Country with 'Attitude' catering the the younger demographic has already been tried here in the Seattle market and failed.

Time will tell...

 

[WarpFactor]

Ya know YoYo...or Becky or whomever you are...

You need to get past this.

We can snipe and take potshots at each other til the cows come home, but the simple fact remains...

KMPS is circiling the drain.

Buh Bye.

I'm guessing a PD change at KMPS within the next 12 months.

 

[AQH]

Ya know YoYo...or Becky or whomever you are...

You need to get past this.

We can snipe and take potshots at each other til the cows come home, but the simple fact remains...

KMPS is circiling the drain.

Buh Bye.

I'm guessing a PD change at KMPS within the next 12 months.

I admit, the YoYo thin with the morning guy is starting to get creepy.

To say that KMPS is circling the drain is a stretch.

I do agree with YoYo in that we should wait and see how they do when the Entercom TV money dries up.

If I were a buyer, my money would still go to KMPS.