Cumulus & Pamal & Pensacola?

[Nate Wesley]

Even if WXBM is #1 and Cat is #2 in little old Pensacola, KSJ is sitting pretty over in big bad Mobile with no competition. Could 102.7 possibly start targeting Mobile without dumping the entire Pensacola audience on the Cat at once... try to become a full market, Mobile/Pensacola, country outlet and pull more listeners away from KSJ than they loose to Cat. It seems to make sense to me, but I ain't all that smart when it comes to this type of thing.

'XBM is easily profitable without Cumulus making one single adjustment--though we know they'll make some. But why would they need to make enough changes to 'dump the entire Pensacola audience' to anyone? And how many crucial households 'aren't' being covered by 102.7 vs 94.9, again? WXBM is a full class C just as WKSJ, but with 33 meters less height on a tower a few miles closer to Pensacola. To the extent that Mobile & Pensacola are 'one' radio market, it IS a full market stick...that wins by catering to Pensacola books.

 

[tomservo]

If there were two classic or modern rock stations in these markets, then I think you'd see fragmentation with each spotlighting one specific market to maximize ratings potential. Ditto urban. But country is such a monster format here that trying to serve each market with one signal would not be very smart. As long as all three country signals are owned by different companies, each will continue to plug away at one or the other market, but not both. I honestly believe both Mobile and Pensacola can support two country stations, so in that regard we could see one more country station, two each for each market. Scary, huh?

 

[amfmxm]

Oh, I think it would be "smart" for ANY of these full Class C's midway between Mobile & Pcola to go for both markets. In fact, it has always been one of the dumbest situations in radio. Why go to the bother and expense of doing a 1700-foot (or whatever) stick in Baldwin County, Alabama if you're not going to use half your damn signal?

Might as well put it on the beach and let half your signal cover flounder. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

But it would require significant investment in marketing--and effort, and people. And, so far, for the past 50 years or so, nobody has been willing to spend the money.

WBLX has been an exception only because no one in Pensacola ever challenged them--at least not seriously--so they've won the Urban Contemp race by default. And, for many years, WABB enjoyed the same situation in CHR (as WJLQ came & went from the format--and came & went & came & went).

FWIW, there was a time when FIVE (5) of those full Class C's--KSJ, XBM, 96.1, 104.1 & 107.3--were all blasting the same Country tunes at once. 1994-95. WOWW was the first to bail, flipping to alternative rock, then 96 into classic rock. As far as I know it is the only time--the only market, ever--to have FIVE (5) full-power FM stations doing a single format.

It's always been a fun market, if a tad weird. LOL.

 

[Poledo]

I've looked back at my posts this week and they are close to schizophrenic. I've been mixing what I believe would be smart business with what I believe would best serve the public, all right along with what I would personally like to hear on the dial, without making any distinction of what angle I'm approaching from. Reading my recent post must be difficult.

As to WXBM targeting Mobile... I believe they should give it a shot.
Pamal was a Pensacola cluster with full market coverage of Mobile. I don't listen to WXBM unless I'm scanning the dial for information on how bad a wreck is around Pensacola, so I don't know just how "local" WXBM typically sounds. I know The Rocket gives traffic and weather along with big news headlines for Mobile and Pensacola. Traffic for Pensacola is right there with traffic for Mobile, equal coverage of both markets. Commercials for Pensacola only businesses are there... not as many Pensacola business as Mobile has, but the percentage is about the same as the difference in the size of the cities. In fact I'd say that The Rocket sounds about 25% Pensacola and 75% Mobile... with Mobile being 4x the size of Pensacola, that's pretty much a perfect ratio for the non-existent "Mobile/Pensacola radio market." In comparison, Cumulus' WKSM 99Rock sounds about 50% FWB/Destin, 25% Pensacola, and 25% split between Navarre and South Walton and Crestview. They also mention Panama City Beach every few hours, not sure why... the signal reaches but they never appear in the 12+ PCB ratings.

Now what has changed for WXBM and WMEZ? Cumulus has Cumulus Pensacola and Cumulus Mobile and I am sure that a sales rep in Mobile can sell advertising on 100.7 and now (soon) the Pamal stations. Now that they have staff based in Mobile to sell spots on WXBM, I'm sure they will try to pitch it to their Mobile advertisers. I'm sure that a local Mobile business could place an add on WXBM for far less money than they would have to pay for the same spot on KSJ. Cumulus can start small by putting up billboards for XBM in Mobile and say "Mobile's best Country"... they did it with Q-100. They can go ahead and run TV commercials for XBM that say "Mobile and Pensacola's Best country music" or just not mention a city, 102.7's coverage area is the same as the local TV stations. Why am I not mentioning WMEZ, there is a clear line cut for WMEZ as a Pensacola station, WMXC Mobile, and WNCV FWB, I guess the overlapping coverage of adjacent markets may be used when listeners drive across the listening area, but those three stations just never show anything significant in out of COL market 12+ books. The same clear line exists for KSJ, XBM, and Cat, but the difference is that KSJ is just a monster in Mobile so Pensacola only businesses would have had to pay too much to advertize on KSJ. XBM and Cat only have/had offices in Pensacola so reaching out to advertisers in Mobile was/is inconvenient. If the Cumulus Mobile sales staff can start bringing in additional revenue for XBM it will be very interesting to see if they can pull any listeners away from KSJ. Cat, I'd expect to just keep doing their thing. They might start bashing WXBM (or "that other station") on air as not being locally owned and if Cumulus does staff cutbacks that result in some people working for WXBM drinking from a coffee pot in Mobile, it would be an easy card to play.
Make any sense? KSJ is Mobile's Country. Cat is Pensacola's Country. XBM could now become Mobile/Pensacola country, which could potentially have a total audience larger than either KSJ or Cat alone. Thus justifying 3 country stations on the dial (not including Biloxi and Fort Walton and Jackson, AL stations.) If content on XBM increases in quality it could hit Cat hard enough to make them consider flipping 98.7 to a Rocker. Not likely, but I think it would be cool and I am kinda rooting for Cumulus to push WXBM hard. Hard enough to take back the vast majority of the Pensacola Country audience or a "Mobile/Pensacola" market approach that might make XBM as big of a deal as KSJ, just with sales reps working a much larger geographic area.

 

[Kent]

Clear Channel bought 101.5 and 107.3 in Pensacola while they already owned 94.9, 96.1, 99.9 and 104.1 in Mobile. Clear Channel had to spin off 104.1 to Cumulus in order to get the deal past the FCC. Apparently having all the signals from both markets on the same towers matters to the FCC.

Cumulus owns a whole bunch of stations in Atlanta, Some are owned by Cumulus, some by Dickey. That might be a work around for Pensacola.

Clear Channel also bought those stations prior to 2003, when the FCC used a contour overlap method to determine the number of signals in a market. At that time, the location of the towers was everything. Now, the FCC uses Arbitron market definitions according to which market each station calls home.

Ironically, one of the reasons the FCC went to Arbitron markets was because Journal used its AM signal on 1070 in Wichita, which put a solid signal more than 100 miles away, to justify owning 5 FM's in the market. Now, it's entirely possible that Cumulus will be able to use Arbitron markets to own more stations that its competitors, who shored up their positions much earlier.

 

[tomservo]

Oh, I think it would be "smart" for ANY of these full Class C's midway between Mobile & Pcola to go for both markets. In fact, it has always been one of the dumbest situations in radio. Why go to the bother and expense of doing a 1700-foot (or whatever) stick in Baldwin County, Alabama if you're not going to use half your damn signal?

Were these two cities one market at some point? That's the only logic I see in why we have so many stations playing to both markets. See, it makes more sense to me to target one market and hammer home localism, ads-wise. The $64 question is, for example, which is more lucrative: Cumulus selling FULL ad breaks on their two small urban ACs in each market for market cost, or having one 100 kW urban AC halfway between the cities, selling the same ad break to half as many businesses?

It would suck for me if this were the dominant situation because I'm exactly halfway between them in Foley, but from a $$$ standpoint, two stations with full ad dockets equals more money than one big station selling more expensive ads. Does that make any sense?

In other words, can a radio company here selling ads for $1 on two stations in two markets sell half as many ads, but for $2, on one station… I suppose if the ad rates are higher on the dual market stations, it makes up for not having two signals in two cities.

(Yes, I realize those numbers are made up. Work with me, I'm a peon radio listener!)

 

[Tibbs4]

Zach - the rates are correct. But you get 600 free spots for every buck spent. Thanks for exposing the real issue with true Panhandle radio..

Having Crums come in will only help things less. What was actual/final selling price for these stations? Ive read several figures. That's right at at least ten stations sold this year along the Panhandle. Interesting. Very interesting.

 

[Poledo]

When the FM's started getting taller and going up to the full 100kw almost all of them did it from towers at Wilcox Rd or Spanish Fort. I guess there were always towers at Spanish Fort, they just built some taller ones in the 70's.
So no, Mobile and Pensacola were never one radio market. See AM coverage for the best reason. No AM covers both cities except WWL New Orleans. I guess Mobile has enough signals that don't cover Pensacola to keep it a separate market today, but Pensacola only has 106.1 (and 95.7 if it's registered as a commercial FM) so it does seem like Pensacola should be part of Mobile, but Mobile shouldn't be part of Pensacola.

At one time Pensacola had FMs on shorter towers with lower power. I think the main tower was the old analog WSRE/current Magic 106.1 tower on Fairfield Dr. There may have been a 2nd or third there too. Everyone knows that 107.3 was the last station to move away, they were pretty weak before they moved to the Cantonment tower, but covered Pensacola/Gulf Breeze fairly well. TK started out over here in Pensacola, not covering Mobile but putting a decent signal into FWB. I'm pretty sure 94.1 and 100.7 were also located in Florida back in the 70's and into the 80's. Of course WXBM was a small local Milton station at one time and 104.1 was a little Atmore station with the weirdest debut of all the stations.... "The Wizard is Coming" cryptically on TV commercials and billboards for months... with no mention of it involving a radio station or what the hell the Wizard was... in fact, we really thought it was going to be a new bar/night club. Back in high school it was hit or miss whether you could put enough tin foil on your antenna to pick up WAAZ for Crestview vs Pensacola/Gulf Breeze are football games.

WBLX didn't cover Pensacola back in the early 80's... I originally found it one night when the signal seemed stronger. I was convinced that they ran more power at night because that was the only time it came in over here. I could pick it up most nights for a few years before they appeared on the dial one day and stayed there. Of course, that was when Rap was a new sound with Grand Master Flash and Sugar Hill Gang common bands to hear. Now I can't hardly stand 95% of the stuff BLX plays. I don't remember a time without 97.5 or 99.9 on the Pensacola dial. It seems like 94.9 and 96.1 powered up later. I remember 106.5 doing TV commercials way back when (maybe late 80's?) and wondering why there wasn't a radio station on that frequency in Pensacola. It was years before I understood that Mobile had it's own stations that didn't cover Pensacola.

FWB was the same. All the stations over there were 25kw or less and didn't cover anything west of Navarre. Kiss 99.3 was a very difficult/rare catch in Pensacola back in the day, but for some reason I was always trying to find it on the dial (yep, back in the days of a dial to fine tune.) Of course the big signals in FWB are the new allocation of 96.5 and the two stations recently moved down from L.A.

Panama City always seemed to have very powerful signals, Island was the only one I knew existed that didn't reach Pensacola. Dothan, not so much, just WTVY-FM and 96.9, I guess WOOF was blocked by local 99.9 and KMX must have been lower power on a short tower. Biloxi didn't come in over here until nearly 1990.

 

[Poledo]

Zach - the rates are correct. But you get 600 free spots for every buck spent. Thanks for exposing the real issue with true Panhandle radio..

Very true. I'm getting tons of free spots. Stations digging out old recordings from the 90's and playing them to fill breaks. I've got too much work to do... I don't want any advertising... but they keep playing my old spots for free. And they sound funny because they were recorded so long ago. I haven't paid for any radio spots in 6? years on one of the stations. I just read and post on here and some other boards to try to distract myself every so often to keep from going nuts from the ringing phones.

That damn internet gets me too many damn phone calls too. I've never advertised on the net. I wrote my own website with Microsoft Notepad before HTML editors existed. I just pay about $9/year for my domain name, yet out of 50 companies I'm listed in the top 5... top 2 local companies and the other local company is a joke with an answering machine that pays out a fortune to advertise, so much that I beat their prices by over %25. Why should I pay anyone for advertising when it's free on the internet?

 

[amfmxm]

Quick math: Using Arbitron's current 12+ population figures...

Mobile: 508,800
Pcola: 387,700
Total: 896,500

"Mobile-Pensacola" is a concept that media buyers have known for 60 years, courtesy of Nielsen. The TV market is America's 60th largest market, and Arbitron's total population of 896,500 would likewise make it the 60th radio market, as well. (As a side-note, Mobile would constitute 57% of the combined radio market and Pensacola 43%). The M-P radio market would replace Greenville-Spartanburg as the 60th market.

The Big Question: Does Market #60 get much higher rates than Market #97 and Market #128? Hell, yeah. Second Big Question: Would the real radio market boil-down to the dozen-or-so big sticks in Baldwin covering the whole schmeer? Damn straight. Third Big Question: Would those big sticks currently focused on Mobile--with its larger population/listener base dominate the combined market initially? You bet. Forever? Nope, but the "Pensacola" big sticks--XBM, MEZ, COA-FM & 107.3--would need to start spending to develop their Alabama audience.

As the only subscriber in both markets, Clear Channel now has complete control of this, right now. With KSJ, Rocket, & Mix--and even TK--all with solid Mobile audiences (and HMN moving that way), would it be to their enormous advantage to call their Arbitron rep and say "Let's do it," the answer is an enormous "Yup."

 

[upstate29651]

The Big Question: Does Market #60 get much higher rates than Market #97 and Market #128? Hell, yeah. Second Big Question: Would the real radio market boil-down to the dozen-or-so big sticks in Baldwin covering the whole schmeer? Damn straight. Third Big Question: Would those big sticks currently focused on Mobile--with its larger population/listener base dominate the combined market initially? You bet. Forever? Nope, but the "Pensacola" big sticks--XBM, MEZ, COA-FM & 107.3--would need to start spending to develop their Alabama audience.

One more question you forgot:

Advertisers in this tourism-heavy market. Ask them. "Oh, you're now market #60? And this justifies you raising my advertising rates by xx%? Really? Market size means nothing to me, you know? No? Then go take a walk & don't come back!" That's the reality. How do you convince current advertisers to pay more...but the size of the area they reach hsn't grown an inch?

G

 

[amfmxm]

Awwwwww, I know. Asking for more money is SO scary! But, you know, it still beats the hell out of setting for less money. And, by the way, you--as the seller or SM or GM--will make much more money, too. (Not that you have to take more money--just send what you don't want to Atlanta or San Antonio). Come on, man.

But you're right--the account and/or agency doesn't care about what your market rank is. It's all about supply & demand & what the market will bear. At that level, it is nothing more than an auction. What rate will clear? Always has been and always will be.

But when your market is accepted as being a bigger market than, say, Greenville-Spartanburg... or Omaha... then you can get higher rates. But you certainly don't HAVE to ask for higher rates merely because you can get them.

Unless you want to keep your job.

 

[Poledo]

Quick math: Using Arbitron's current 12+ population figures...

Mobile: 508,800
Pcola: 387,700
Total: 896,500

So if Arbitron combined Mobile, Baldwin (and I assume Escambia, AL) counties along with Santa Rosa and Escambia counties they'd have close to 900,000 folks. If the radio station owners could convince Arbitron to add Jackson county Mississippi (Pascagoula) and Okaloosa county Florida (Ft. Walton, Destin, Crestview) to the DMA... could that push a new Mobile-Pensacola-Ft. Walton radio market into the top 50? Top 50 would mean advertising would bring in really big bucks, right? But those big bucks would only flow to the 11 class C, C0 & C1 commercial FM's in Baldwin county? Magic 106.1 in Pensacola, et al. would not be able to demand much more money for their add spots?

I thought Pensacola (Escambia and S.R. counties) was close to 300k people. while Mobile (Mobile & Baldwin counties) was around 800k... with the Biloxi-Mobile-Pensacola-FWB megalopolis (also the theoretical coverage area of the tallest 100kw Baldwin county radio stations, like 93 BLX and Lite Mix 99.9, coming in with under 1.5 million available listeners. My numbers do not equal the ones you found amfmxm, but I believe your numbers must be correct and mine are just a figment of my imagination.

But then I Google up some information and get this:
Nielsen says Mobile-PNS-FWB TV market is only 540k with Biloxi only adding another 120k. 660k people in the Biloxi-Mobile-Pensacola-FWB megalopolis that watch TV just doesn't seem right. Did we loose that much population from hurricanes Ivan and Katrina? Is Arbitron counting the number of people while Nielsen is counting the number of families? Does one count full time residents while one counts the number of people actually here most of the time? Are different counties included in Arbitron's markets and Nielsen's markets? Where am I getting confused or have I just lost touch with the area outside the 10 mile stretch between home and work?

 

[amfmxm]

Poledo, you hit the nail on the proverbial head when you asked whether Nielsen & Arbitron were using different counties. Yes, they are. But not by much. The 540K figure from Nielsen may be HH (households) rather than persons, too. Arbitron counts persons 12+ in diary markets, and now, persons 6+ in PPM markets. IIRC, Nielsen counts persons 2+ (yes, babies through 120-year olds). The lesson here is that readers of these things need to be very careful to make sure they know what they're looking at. It is very easy to get confused. Oh, and Biloxi-Gulfport (is it Biloxi-Gulfport-Hattiesburg?) is a separate TV market from Mobile-Pensacola--they have their own stations over there.

And, Upstate, something I forgot to mention is that agencies calculate rates according to cost-per-point (cpp) numbers based on population. So newly consolidated markets do get bumped up in value. Agencies expect to pay more for top stations in market #60 than in market #97. That doesn't mean you won't have to fight for every damn penny. Of course you will. It's part of the game. But upward-moving market rankings eventually work in your favor. And reconfiguration of markets isn't all that unusual--agencies that deal with markets coast-to-coast see this stuff on a regular basis. The buyers may act like it's a big shock, but--again--that's just part of the game.

 

[Poledo]

So if Clear Channel is Arbitron's only subscriber in Mobile and Pensacola (I did see that WAVH subscribes in Mobile too), what reason would Clear Channel have to not ask or even pressure Arbitron to combine the two markets. All Clear Channel owns are 100kw FMs that cover both markets and WNTM-AM covering only Mobile. Everything points to it being a very big advantage to Clear Channel marrying Mobile to Pensacola.

Any clues on why this hasn't happened or isn't known to be in the process of happening right now?

 

[Dr voicetrack]

If Arb was to recombine the two markets, they shut the door on potential money from stations outside of CC. The two markets were separated long ago because the smaller sticks in each market complained they weren't getting a fair representation of their audience in their market. Combining the markets just because of CC would be very short sided and lend even less credibility to Arbitron then they have now.

 

[Tibbs4]

Yeah, it's pretty damn pathetic when even Crapulus won't waste the money. But, if you look at the various markets along the coast, the swings in ratings have been wild. I guess that is what you get when you send out about 35 books in each market.

Bigger issue, especially in FWB\Destin....how many local spots are running vs. Agency buys? PCB is also an interesting market for that. Honestly, I haven't listened to either market in some time, but from about the late 80s well through the 90s and 2k, the number of new stations coming on just strangled the ability to make great profit (unless you were CC in PCB or Hollidayz in FWB). The revenue stream in is the issue many times. Add that to dollah hollahs and all the ratings numbers still don't get you much progress.

As for Pcola, I was always shocked at how that market did act like there was an iron curtain to the west, but loved to try to sell ads in FWB. I never had any interest in the Pensacola or Mobile market, so, unlike RNR (aka AMFMXYZ), I never have studied it much. But, yeah, I'd be probably creating some mega 200kw scams ton play off both markets and try to show force vs. Drawing a fake line and claiming that one city and it population doesn't exist.

I guess you could call it a marriage...albeit, contemptulous...wait ... A new name for Crumulus?

 

[Poledo]

Didn't Cumulus come up with their own way to measure ratings without Arbitron? Therefore Cumulus has no plans to subscribe to Arbitron in the future. Don't all subscribers to Arbitron have computer software that can break down the number of listeners in their real coverage area (see WAVH vs the 100kw Clear Channel stations)? I don't remember any AMs having a 12+ rating in the latest period... So why wouldn't Clear Channel want to pressure Arbitron to marry Mobile to Pensacola to bring the market up to the #60 range? Clear Channel has WNTM-AM and the rest are dual market 100kw stations. The markets could be separated at the subscriber level if others subscribed to Arbitron for the Mobile-PNS numbers in the future. Clear Channel should have the power to get Arbitron to cooperate with them if Clear Channel wants it done.
Is it possible Clear Channel wants Mobile and Pensacola to keep staring at each other through the imaginary fence on the state line and acting like the other market doesn't exist? What happens in 10-15 years when Baldwin county is built out and there is no longer a 30 minute wide division between Mobile and Pensacola on I-10?

 

[ThatGuyOnTheRadio]

If Arb was to recombine the two markets, they shut the door on potential money from stations outside of CC. The two markets were separated long ago because the smaller sticks in each market complained they weren't getting a fair representation of their audience in their market. Combining the markets just because of CC would be very short sided and lend even less credibility to Arbitron then they have now.

Oh, you mean like what happened in Gainesville/Ocala?

 

[Rob]

Here's a thought, if Clear Chan bought AAZ/JSB, Whoever owns XBM's (mom and pop)? tower east closer to crestview, rebrand and call themselves "the good country" and carry on what AAZ has been doing for our county. Their signal barely covers crestview but it's crap here in ft walton.

I don't know why XBM ID's as Milton, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach (and the end of the road) but once you hit the Island, their signal goes to crap. Would upset a lot of Braves listeners who do listen in Destin..

Just a thought (could happen)

As shown here: http://www.radio-locator.com/cgi-bin/pat?call=WXBM&service=FM&status=L&hours=U if they moved their tower closer to Pensacola, keep the HAAT (which is impressive to say the least) they could cover Mobile to Destin & south Ala. I have a feeling those in Mobile usually listen to KSJ.

-Rob