Dave overtakes Conan in ratings

[whit979]

http://www.tvguide.com/News/Ratings-Letterman-Conan-1006780.aspx

News out a couple of days ago shows that David Letterman has passed Conan O'brien in the ratings by a very slim margin. Conan's ratings are down some 42 percent since his sign-on at The Tonight Show, although the NHL Playoffs could be partly to blame for that, not to mention people tuning in to see the premiere and tuning back out once things settled down.

However, Conan's mood does seem markedly different than during his time on Late Night. The Tonight Show seems to drag on a bit at times; Late Night with Conan seemed to have a tighter feel to it. Conan seems somewhat unhappy at times during show tapings, which to me suggests the possibility that there might be NBC-Universal executives behind the scenes who are trying to put some restraint on Conan now that he has inherited the network's benchmark program.

 

[landtuna]

I give Conehead a year at most.

The suits at NBC must see something I don't but never thought the man was particularly interesting or funny.

 

[Mark Giardina]

Maybe Hugh Grant will get busted again for trying to pick up a hooker and Conan can get the first on-air interview. That's what saved Leno, who was also getting beaten by Letterman.

Or better yet Sarah Palin will appear on the Tonight Show and diss Letterman.

 

[jal41]

Maybe Hugh Grant will get busted again for trying to pick up a hooker and Conan can get the first on-air interview. That's what saved Leno, who was also getting beaten by Letterman.

You are in luck. Mr. Grant just kicked a photographer in the "man" area.

NBC is going to have to either 1) Let Conan do his 12:30 schtick at 11:30, not toned down or 2) Move the Tonight Show to 12:30, and The Jay Leno Show at 11:30 (there is no rule in the book that says "The Tonight Show" has to air at 11:30). Otherwise...NBC will become last place all-around (ABC will catch up in news soon)...then the affiliate defections will begin.

 

[searadiofreak]

I don't know, it just seems a bit early for all this speculation. Stanley Cup, the Letterman controversy, and just the general "newness" of Conan on "Tonight" will fail to give us an accurate ratings read for now. We need to go through the summer, and fall, and then see how it all works out. If I had to make a prediction, though, it would be that Letterman will do fine, and Conan will do fine. Letterman will always have his fans, (but I think he needs to be more careful with his political views), and Conan should settle in after working out some kinks.

 

[Nate Wesley]

I don't know, it just seems a bit early for all this speculation. Stanley Cup, the Letterman controversy, and just the general "newness" of Conan on "Tonight" will fail to give us an accurate ratings read for now. We need to go through the summer, and fall, and then see how it all works out. If I had to make a prediction, though, it would be that Letterman will do fine, and Conan will do fine. Letterman will always have his fans, (but I think he needs to be more careful with his political views), and Conan should settle in after working out some kinks.

If I remember correctly, Letterman started with a sizable lead over the Jay Leno hosted Tonight Show for like a year or so before settling back down. You are right, there is nothing for NBC to concerned about this early in the game. BOTH shows are cash cows for their respective networks, so it would take a significant ratings AND revenue dip for something to be done.

 

[LKellerIII]

I give Conehead a year at most.

The suits at NBC must see something I don't but never thought the man was particularly interesting or funny.

"Different strokes..." as they say. I've always liked Conan's brand of humor. Letterman has lasted many years, and makes a very handsome living despite the fact that his ratings have trailed Leno's for most of those years. I agree with Nate, above - there's room for both O'Brien and Letterman. Even if Letterman continues to get higher ratings, I'm sure it will never even come close to the ratings lead Johnny Carson held over all competitors for so many years.

Television seems to have entered an era in which it's not so important to be "number one" as long as you're making a profit.

 

[elchupacabras]

Now if they'd just put Kimmel in that spot, he'd kill them both!

 

[wncc]

I watched Conan last night, and it was painful to watch. Reminded me of his early days on Late Night. I think Andy Richter hurts him rather than helps him. When he got rid of Andy Richter on Late Night was when the show actually improved.

 

[PrivateSector]

http://www.tvguide.com/News/Ratings-Letterman-Conan-1006780.aspx

News out a couple of days ago shows that David Letterman has passed Conan O'brien in the ratings by a very slim margin. Conan's ratings are down some 42 percent since his sign-on at The Tonight Show, although the NHL Playoffs could be partly to blame for that, not to mention people tuning in to see the premiere and tuning back out once things settled down.

However, Conan's mood does seem markedly different than during his time on Late Night. The Tonight Show seems to drag on a bit at times; Late Night with Conan seemed to have a tighter feel to it. Conan seems somewhat unhappy at times during show tapings, which to me suggests the possibility that there might be NBC-Universal executives behind the scenes who are trying to put some restraint on Conan now that he has inherited the network's benchmark program.

The Tonight Show is a major brand and I think Conan was a bad choice to replace Jay. He's too immature with his ad-libs and doesn't have the polish to pull it off. He was okay on Late Night, but that's a different show, different time. The Tonight Show has always had a classic, uptown reputation and the benchmark of late night programming.

Dave's biggest problem is, and has been, getting big-name guests on a more consistent basis. New York just doesn't have the talent pool that L.A. has. Personally, I would love to see Dave move the show to L.A. Remember when Dave made trips to L.A. in the 1990's? Those shows were GREAT! Even Johnny came by for a walk-on! There's no question....for Dave to win, get the show to move to Los Angeles. For Conan to win......well, Dave would have to retire.

 

[Markxxx]

In today's world ratings have become meaningless. All that matters is profit. If you pull in small ratings but the show costs nothing to make, you can rake in a much bigger profit.

Oprah is an excellent example of this. The show costs a lot and few stations really make any money from her anymore. BUT Oprah has a huge audience and she really boosts the ratings for all the shows that follow her. So the show is worth it overall but not as a stand alone.

I imagine Conan will have to "tinker" with his format to find a good balance between his personality and the audience at an earlier time. He wouldn't want to just copy Leno or Carson, so he needs awhile to get a feel.

In the meantime Letterman can profit from this by gaining viewers who don't like this or that as Conan tinkers with the format, bit by bit.

 

[LKellerIII]

In today's world ratings have become meaningless. All that matters is profit. If you pull in small ratings but the show costs nothing to make, you can rake in a much bigger profit.

Oprah is an excellent example of this. The show costs a lot and few stations really make any money from her anymore. BUT Oprah has a huge audience and she really boosts the ratings for all the shows that follow her. So the show is worth it overall but not as a stand alone.

I imagine Conan will have to "tinker" with his format to find a good balance between his personality and the audience at an earlier time. He wouldn't want to just copy Leno or Carson, so he needs awhile to get a feel.

In the meantime Letterman can profit from this by gaining viewers who don't like this or that as Conan tinkers with the format, bit by bit.

I think that's a good analysis, Mark. Another example is local news in major markets. In the 70s in the Bay Area, the ABC affiliate (KGO-TV) bragged about having the top rated local news. The other stations spent a lot of time and resources changing anchors, changing sets, changing theme-music and graphics every few months in the hope that they'd gain share. It didn't work, it just confused viewers, and I would think it was very expensive.

For the last decade or more, there's even more time devoted to local news - there are 5 local stations with news at 6:00 PM now, and I have no idea which is number one. Nobody cares. It's unusual for stations to make any anchor or format changes. They stick with who they've got, and who the viewers know. If an anchor retires, they "promote" another familiar face already on staff - they don't do talent searches and bring in unknown anchors from somewhere else. Occasionally, an anchor will jump ship to another local station, but that's it. As far as I know, all these stations are making money, or the news wouldn't be on so many hours a day.

Conan has a lot of fans, and (IMO), Dave's show has gotten a bit boring. The Tonight producers and writers will refine and change things, and Conan will get a lot longer than a year to get it together, even if he stays #2.

Ironically, all the fuss over the joke Letterman made about Sarah Palin's daughter will probably be another boost to his ratings in the short run.

 

[landtuna]

Conan has a lot of fans, and (IMO), Dave's show has gotten a bit boring. The Tonight producers and writers will refine and change things, and Conan will get a lot longer than a year to get it together, even if he stays #2.

I guess the insomniacs who stay up late to watch these "comedians" will have to choose between two very lacking "talents".

To be fair, I watched Conan Friday night just to see if there was any improvement over his first show. Not one bit. In fact, two weeks later he was not even up to his inaugural night (which was very lame).

I'm guessing viewers will suffer through one of these shows until Leno does his nightly show this Fall. Then Conan will fall off the map. IMHO Letterman already has.

 

[therealjm12]

Dave move to L. A.- no way!!! His edginess comes from the Big Apple. He is NYC, NYC is him. I think going to L. A. for a couple weeks a year is a great idea. IMHO I thought Johnny Carson's Tonight show went downhill after they moved to Burbank. It just lost its edge. But I did like it when Johnny visited there a couple times a year. BTW, nothing against L. A. I love it there. Personally, I would much rather live in Southern CA. than NYC.

 

[TheRover]

I don't even take time to tune in to late night talk shows....

They all have their "moments"....

The monologs being the best part of the show.

Personally, I can't stand Kimmel....

I miss The Jon Stewart Show and Craig Ferguson.

Look at the direction of SNL......

Too low brow for me...

 

[1069_KIFR]

When Dave does retire, word has been out there that Jon Stewart would/wants take over Late Show.

Craig Ferguson has said that he may not renew his contrct when it comes due. He wants to get back to writing/producing/directing films. Although that could change when time to renew comes up.

As with Jon Stewart. He may get pass up by someone that is not yet known out there. Since Dave signed a three year extension.

Should Jon Stewart take over Late Show down the line, that will really shake up the night time talk show field once again. With so many talk shows at night now, any change causes a shake up.

Has FOX green lighted 'Talk Show with Spike Feresten?' Then that will possibly divy up the pie even more.

 

[TheRover]

Craig Ferguson has said that he may not renew his contrct when it comes due. He wants to get back to writing/producing/directing films. Although that could change when time to renew comes up.

Ooooops .... I meant Craig Kilborn..... I miss Craig Kilborn.

Craig Ferguson is just ok with me.... not grat ... and not horrible.....

It's all getting pretty dunbed down on Non-Cable shows.....

REALLY dumbed down.....

 

[elchupacabras]

I think ABC will eventually kill Nightline and move Kimmel to the time slot, and I think in a matter of years with the demos aging, Kimmel will pummel them both, even though I am a Letterman fan. I can't stand Conan.

 

[benwolf]

I think a year from now the rating 1-2-3 will be Letterman/Kimmel/Conan. Conan doesn't have a chance for 2 reasons: the awful NBC primetime lead-in (and I've noticed CBS is running more Dave promos in prime time to take advantage). Second, he's handicapped by frequently having as guests the stars of those NBC shows no one watches. Yes, Carson still stayed on top when NBC was third for a while, but I don't recall Johnny ever having the cast from Supertrain or Pink Lady on his show. Also, Conan is no Carson....unfunny, nervous, overly scripted, tries wayyy too hard and it shows...a lot of flop sweat on that show.

Kimmel would be the funniest of the 3 if he stops all the Uncle Frank and Beatrice skits...always unfunny. Cousin Sal on the other hand, hilarious.

 

[LKellerIII]

I think a year from now the rating 1-2-3 will be Letterman/Kimmel/Conan. Conan doesn't have a chance for 2 reasons: the awful NBC primetime lead-in (and I've noticed CBS is running more Dave promos in prime time to take advantage). Second, he's handicapped by frequently having as guests the stars of those NBC shows no one watches. Yes, Carson still stayed on top when NBC was third for a while, but I don't recall Johnny ever having the cast from Supertrain or Pink Lady on his show. Also, Conan is no Carson....unfunny, nervous, overly scripted, tries wayyy too hard and it shows...a lot of flop sweat on that show.

Kimmel would be the funniest of the 3 if he stops all the Uncle Frank and Beatrice skits...always unfunny. Cousin Sal on the other hand, hilarious.

I think most of us are demonstrating our varied tastes here. I'm not a big late night watcher, but I enjoy Conan, and I've been DVRing him since he took over the Tonight Show. Yes - he's nervous, and the show doesn't quite gel yet, but I'm confident that will change. I

If you remember, the Tonight Show sucked when Jay Leno first took over, and Letterman was getting higher ratings, but Leno ended up on top after considerable re-tooling.

By the way, I'd bet that Carson did have one of the cast members from Pink Lady and Jeff on frequently. Jeff Altman was a well-know stand up comic, and I'm sure he's appeared on Carson's, Leno's, and Letterman's shows many times. Whether Johnny had Altman on during the short run of Pink Lady, I don't know...