David E.

[Radioman100]

The 2000 census puts the Hispanic population at just over 41%.

But Arbitron uses 2006 data from Claritas, which processes Census updates and other data to get a more "real" view of the 12+ population. And they indicate that the current 12+ of the MSA (two counties, with Odessa and Midland in them) is 34% for 2006. For 2007, it is 38%, but only 41% are Spanish dominant, one of the lowest in the state. There is no DST, no language proportionality, etc. There are only 165 Spanish dominant diaries in the Spring book, meaning that for, let's say, 18-34 in Morning drive, there are about 50 Spanish dominant diaries. So each diary can change a station share by around 2% each.

I assure you, the real number including illegals who aren't likely to submit to the census is much higher. Possibly as high as 60% in Odessa. Midland is officially just under 29% Hispanic, but I assure you the real number is higher there as well.

The Claritas numbers use by Arbitron come very close to reality, as they contemplate things like vehicle registrations and other data that they combine with the Census projections. And, most demographers agree, the Census was within a few percent of accurately counting illegals, too. Remeber, there was an extensive campaign on Spanish langauge media indicating that the Census data was not shared and that the Census staff would not ask about legal status. Perfect? No. But very close? Yes. And Claritas gives even closer figures.

The Hispanic population of Amarillo is just over 21%.

... less than half of which is Spanish dominant. Horrible market for Spanish langauge stations. The whole market has less than $10 million in revenue, no revenue growth, and 19 stations in the MSA.

Well, Claritas is just plain wrong about Midland & Odessa. The Hispanic population is a lot higher than a third, especially in Odessa.

 

[klifhanger]

Yeah Shadow it is funny. The guy just doesnt like to ever admit he's; wrong,even when confronted with the facts. Capt. Picard?/ Captain Picard! YOUR android is missing.

 

[davideduardo]

Well, Claritas is just plain wrong about Midland & Odessa. The Hispanic population is a lot higher than a third, especially in Odessa.

That's entirely possible. Claritas could be wrong.

However, let me give you one example from the 2000 Census. The 1999 estimates from the Census bureau were of by nearly 360,000 from the actual Census count in 2000. The estimates are done by statistical techniques, not by polling or such. On the other hand, the Claritas estimates, using the Census data and other sources like total homes in the tax base, vehicle registrations, electric accounts, etc., was off by under 100,000.

The fact is that the Claritas estimates for 1999 were very close, in every market, to the actual Census count; the Census in most high growth markets was waaaaaaaaaaaay off.

In any case, error or not, the basis for Arbitron numbers is the 12+ population of the Metropolitan Survey Area, defined by Arbitron, and updated annually by Claritas in the Fall book period.

So far, in a bit over 37 years of dealing with Arbitron, I have not heard any criticism of the population counts for the MSA's. There is much criticism of the definition of the MSA's themselves, mostly from stations that do not cover the entire MSA.... but of the counts themselves, I hear nothing. Maybe this is because Claritas is the premiere demographer of the US, and companies from P&G to Microsoft use them for marketing purposes.

It's entirely possible for Claritas to be off by more in one or two markets than the rest of the country, but the liklihood, based on experience (MSI was the company Claritas bought to bring in high-powered demography) with MSI and Claritas, it has not been seen before.

And, as I said, radio ratings are based on the Claritas data, so what you see in ratings is based on those populations, to which proportionality is obtained by diary and weighting. Were there more Hispanics in that market, it would not change the ratings as each diary keeper has weighted equal value in the sample.

 

[davideduardo]

Yeah Shadow it is funny. The guy just doesnt like to ever admit he's; wrong,even when confronted with the facts. Capt. Picard?/ Captain Picard! YOUR android is missing.

Yeah, right. "Jérez de la Frontera" which is in Cádiz province of Andalucía (and where the word for the liquor "sherry" comes from) is not in Portugal. Alvar Nuñéz Cabeza de Vaca was born into a noble family of Jérez...

 

[Robert Bass]

2). Spots (and I hear them all too frequently on WBAP) that verbally express a URL as something like ``www.wbap.com'' BACKSLASH ``mdavis''. The virgule in the URL is a SLASH (``/'') and not a BACKSLASH (``\""). We Unix dweebs and C programmers are all too acutely aware of such little things.

Hear ya there Bob. Mine is people who only say "w" twice when they give URLs. Like "ww.noaa.gov". I'd drop the "www" part anyway, whenever possible. For those who do use it, maybe they should say "triple w".

Oh and forget about relaxing this weekend. Chances are Robert Bass is screwing around with the automation system again. ;D

R

 

[MikeShannon914]

Re: Beyond David E.

Robert, have you considered a somewhat blurred version of block programming before? Lighter hits during the workday hours (for office listening,) a heavier mix during morning and afternoon drive (for those like me who want to 'air it out' and crank it up on the road, esp after being cooped up in an office all day,) and the usual mixed bag during evenings? That might actually help the TSL some. Just a suggestion.

 

[Robert Bass]

Good point Mike, and yes I have. The thing is we’re presently living in 24 / 7 work patterns, nowadays. So say while at 10:00 PM at night you may have one listener about to retire for the evening, you also have a trucker who is just starting his shift. So in pleasing the bedtime listener with a softer mix, the truck driver might end up falling asleep behind the wheel. I would hate to think we put a trucker to sleep, spinning too much Barry Manilow type music in the late evening. ;D

Suffice it to say, I’m trying to keep things consistent in all hours. What I am seeing with the TSL appears to be affected more by the popularity vs. unpopularity of the music on our playlist.

Perhaps the eventual addition of 80’s music, will allow a reconsideration of dayparting music, since we’ll easily have around 500 (+/-) more titles to work with.

R

 

[klifhanger]

"D._ "was "skooled".
Now back on the topic, Robert makes a great point. We are no longer the 8-5 worker anymore. More and shifts are now more common than ever before in this "global economy". So what is one's "Morning" is another's "afternoon". Good point Robert.

 

[Robert Bass]

Workin' 9 to 5
What a way to make a livin'
Barely gettin' by
It's all takin' and no givin'
They just use your mind
And you never get the credit
It's enough to drive you crazy
If you let it
9 to 5, yeah
They got you where they want you
There's a better life
And you think about it, don't you
It's a rich man's game
No matter what they call it
And you spend your life
Puttin' money in his wallet

Gracias, Dolly...

R