Fox Proposes Deal For Conan O'Brien

[DToTheJ]

Some of the details of the new deal for a possible Fox show:

If Conan goes to Fox he may be delayed until January because of existing syndication agreements blocking certain time periods at some Fox affiliates.
Trying to get clearance across all Fox affiliates at a uniform time is a major hurdle. A non-uniform time is much more difficult to market.
Fox wants to spend $60 million a year on the show vs. the $90 million that was spent on The Tonight Show by NBC.
It’s possible that a new Conan show might use the same soundstage (leased from NBC) that he used for the Tonight Show.

Full story:
http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...A.+Times+-+TV+News)&utm_content=Google+Reader

More coverage:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/03/17/fox-exec-on-conan-a-deal-we-can-live-with-outlined/45285

 

[PhDance]

If they wait until January for Conan, I wonder what affiliates whose syndication agreements end in the fall will air at the 11pm hour. If I was Fox, I'd consider offering these affliates a "temporary" companion show (e.g., Wanda Sykes, Craig Kilborne, Spike Feresten) in the meantime. This way, you work out some of the bugs and if it does well, package it with Conan in January.

 

[Markxxx]

The LA Times article seems to imply it could take two years to get same time clearance in all FOX markets, while the TV By The Numbers article says January 2011.

In any case if Conan couldn't beat Letterman is he going to do it now? If Leno is beating Letterman now, that means at best, FOX would have to settle for third place. Well most likely any how? Would this be good?

I think Conan needs to think about this. Right now his career is still good but if he fails at FOX he'll come off as totally washed up.

In Chicago on FOX32 "The Simpsons," does very well. So well in fact it's on three times a day (5pm, 6pm and 10:30pm). It would be interesting to see FOX sacrifice a definate ratings winner for this.

 

[DToTheJ]

How ironic would it be if Conan ended up displacing his old stomping grounds on Fox stations in late night?

 

[justpassingthough]

Fox has a major loser of a deal on their hands here. They want to spend $60 million just to produce the show each year. How much are they going to spend/lose on promoting a Conan show on Fox? There are huge opportunity costs associated with taking up valuable time promoting on hit shows like Family Guy or House that already draw 18 to 49 ratings- for what is likely going to be a third place finish behind Leno and Letterman.

Don't think Conan will finish third with a stronger lead in? Leno is leading the late night pack at a fourth ranked NBC- and while he had plenty of promotion during the Winter Olympics- it appears that late night audiences are loyal and less affected by the network lead-in shows then we were probably lead to believe for many years.

 

[mime257]

Conan would get to start 35 minutes earlier on FOX. I'm surprised people don't think this will make a difference.

 

[DToTheJ]

The plot thickens...
http://www.thewrap.com/ind-column/conan-fox-talks-heat-syndie-scenario-emerges-15357

"And in an interesting wrinkle, if for some reason O'Brien and Fox end up not doing a deal, there's been serious interest from at least two major syndication companies [Debmar Mercury and CBS Television Distribution] in launching a syndicated version of O'Brien's show not in late night -- but as an early fringe talk show that would air in the hour just before primetime..."

Look out, Trebek! Watch your back, Sajak! Conan's gunning for you! ;D Wait a minute... Doesn't CBS Television Distribution already syndicate those guys' shows, which are usually shown in the same hour? ??? Perhaps it's a "Plan B" in the event production is stopped on those two game shows? Maybe they'll opt for retirement?

I'll give this much: it would be the first time a regular host named O'Brien would be in the 7 PM (ET) hour since Mr. "You-Are-So-F***ing-Hot!"

 

[SteveRichards]

If I was running a Fox affiliate with a moderately successful syndication line-up in late night, I wouldn't want to take Conan's show. Assuming Conan's Fox show would air nationally at 11PM/10C, one needs to remember that Fox has never had any success running a late-night talker in that slot, in part because it goes up against the late news on the Big Three affiliates. The show might be somewhat successful on some Fox affiliates if said station has a very high-rated newscast preceding Conan, and the news ratings on the Big Three in said market are particularly fluid. I would imagine such scenarios are few and far between, particularly in the big markets that matter. And if Conan aired on Fox at 11:35/10:35C, he will still ultimately come in 3rd or 4th. I would imagine most Fox affiliates are already in 4th place at 11:35 now, but they own virtually all the ad inventory locally, so they can still make some money. That won't be the case with a Conan show. I'm sure Fox has taken this into account when thinking about the situation at each of the stations it owns outright.

The idea of syndication early in the evening is utterly ridiculous. If Jay Leno can't make it at 10PM/9C, why could Conan make it in access? I don't think anybody would buy it, and it would be a failure if it came to pass. Syndication in late-night might be a slightly better idea, but not much. Fox could put it on its Fox or MyNetwork stations and the syndicator could hope for a decent hodge-podge of stations nationally, but that, too, would be tough. Arsenio Hall had it a lot easier 20 years ago...Johnny Carson was his only real competition, and Arsenio's show skewed much younger. Arsenio also had the advantage of being on a lot of CBS and ABC affiliates who delayed or pre-empted their respective network's programming to put him on. That's not going to happen now.

 

[LKellerIII]

Why do people think Conan needs to be number 1 in the late night ratings to be a success for Fox? His ratings at NBC were a major come-down for the 4th place network that was formerly #1 in that time slot. But it seems to me that Fox can consider Conan a success even if he is #3 if;

1. He's a close #3 - pulling substantial audience away from Dave and Jay; and

2. He rates better than #3 for the 18-49 demo, and Fox can make the case to advertisers that he's leading with younger viewers compared to the old 60+ year old fogeys on CBS and NBC.

By way of comparison, I haven't heard anybody dis Jimmy Kimmel because he's "number 3" - ABC is apparently happy with the audience Kimmel does bring in.

Remember that the Fox network is making no revenue in late night right now, so if they can realize a profit on their $60 million per year investment, they can consider it a win.

Also, as somebody pointed out above, he could get a 30 minute head start on the competition, which is no small thing.

 

[mbatchelor]

There are a handful of Fox stations that do a successful 10PM Central/11 Eastern Newscast. Most are holdovers from the New World deal back in the 90s, and used to be affiliated with one of the big three. I would think those stations like KTVI in St. Louis would fight against airing Conan at 10.

 

[SteveRichards]

1. He's a close #3 - pulling substantial audience away from Dave and Jay; and

2. He rates better than #3 for the 18-49 demo, and Fox can make the case to advertisers that he's leading with younger viewers compared to the old 60+ year old fogeys on CBS and NBC.

Conan has already proven that he can't take on Letterman; he's not going to do well going against Letterman AND Leno. CBS and NBC have plenty of viewers under 60. And the audience that Conan and Fox would be going for is probably already occupied with Adult Swim, Comedy Central, etc.

By way of comparison, I haven't heard anybody dis Jimmy Kimmel because he's "number 3" - ABC is apparently happy with the audience Kimmel does bring in.

ABC has never had much success in the post-"Nightline" slot. The fact that ABC has more live affiliate clearances now than ever for "Nightline" and that every ABC affiliate clears Kimmel (live or delayed) is success for them. Personally, I think having Kimmel on after "Nightline" is a programming train wreck, but whatever works for them. I think it would have been a lot more interesting had Leno jumped to ABC instead of taking NBC's prime-time gig. ABC would have canceled "Nightline" to make way for Leno, and Kimmel would have followed Leno.

Remember that the Fox network is making no revenue in late night right now, so if they can realize a profit on their $60 million per year investment, they can consider it a win.

Fox IS making a profit in late night, during the syndicated programming it airs on its 16 or so O&O's. And chances are that a Conan O'Brien vehicle won't do any better in the ratings than the programming those stations have on now...Conan might even do worse. This is also going to be an issue for the affiliated stations who have somewhat successful and profitable syndication line-ups.

Also, as somebody pointed out above, he could get a 30 minute head start on the competition, which is no small thing.

A 30-minute head-start has never helped Fox before in late night. I suppose you could argue demos on that, too, but syndicated "Simpsons" reruns more than likely produce the same result.

I would think those stations like KTVI in St. Louis would fight against airing Conan at 10.

Trivial Note: When Joan Rivers' show aired at 11/10C on Fox, then-Fox affiliate KDNL in St. Louis didn't air it until 11:30 Central.

 

[MarcB]

Some FOX Stations launched 11PM Eastern Newscasts with in the past couple years. FOX O&O's WNYW in NYC and WTTG in DC. Tribune WTIC-TV in Hartford. Just to name 3.

 

[KentBrockman]

Come on everybody... THINK about it!!!! The solution is right under our noses!!!!

College kids/younger demographic.... that's Conan's core audience.

College kids/younger demographic.... quickly overtaking 'The Price is Right's dying out oldster audience.

Solution: Conan can host the 'The Price is Right'!!!!!!!!!

Make it a 2 hour show.... 10am-Noon. One hour of games and one hour of talk/entertainment... all done on the same stage of the Bob Barker Studio at beautiful Television City! I personally think CBS would have a runaway daytime hit on their hands. ;D

 

[searadiofreak]

Come on everybody... THINK about it!!!! The solution is right under our noses!!!!

College kids/younger demographic.... that's Conan's core audience.

College kids/younger demographic.... quickly overtaking 'The Price is Right's dying out oldster audience.

Solution: Conan can host the 'The Price is Right'!!!!!!!!!

Make it a 2 hour show.... 10am-Noon. One hour of games and one hour of talk/entertainment... all done on the same stage of the Bob Barker Studio at beautiful Television City! I personally think CBS would have a runaway daytime hit on their hands. ;D

That is totally out of the box, Kent, and I love it!

I just wonder if there is anyone at CBS that would step out of the box that far.

To take it further, I would even alternate "Price is Right" games with interview segments, back and forth. It might work!

 

[DToTheJ]

Syndication in late-night might be a slightly better idea, but not much. Fox could put it on its Fox or MyNetwork stations and the syndicator could hope for a decent hodge-podge of stations nationally, but that, too, would be tough. Arsenio Hall had it a lot easier 20 years ago...Johnny Carson was his only real competition, and Arsenio's show skewed much younger. Arsenio also had the advantage of being on a lot of CBS and ABC affiliates who delayed or pre-empted their respective network's programming to put him on. That's not going to happen now.

True, CBS late night has come a long way since "Crimetime After Primetime"... In fact, I can recall several CBS stations (including WJBK in Detroit, which was CBS at the time, and WFSB in Hartford, because I know MarcB will point it out eventually ) that aired Arsenio directly after the 11 PM news.

Fast forward to the latter half of the 90's, and unsuccessful late night talk shows hosted by Keenan Ivory Wayans and Magic Johnson, as well as the show inspired by the magazine "Vibe" that incidentally launched at around the exact same time Wayans' show did. Would it be wrong to say that these shows were specifically trying to mimic Arsenio, and not so much, Carson?

 

[justpassingthough]

Why do people think Conan needs to be number 1 in the late night ratings to be a success for Fox? His ratings at NBC were a major come-down for the 4th place network that was formerly #1 in that time slot. But it seems to me that Fox can consider Conan a success even if he is #3 if;

1. He's a close #3 - pulling substantial audience away from Dave and Jay; and

2. He rates better than #3 for the 18-49 demo, and Fox can make the case to advertisers that he's leading with younger viewers compared to the old 60+ year old fogeys on CBS and NBC.

By way of comparison, I haven't heard anybody dis Jimmy Kimmel because he's "number 3" - ABC is apparently happy with the audience Kimmel does bring in.

Remember that the Fox network is making no revenue in late night right now, so if they can realize a profit on their $60 million per year investment, they can consider it a win.

Also, as somebody pointed out above, he could get a 30 minute head start on the competition, which is no small thing.

Comparing Conan and Kimmel is apples and oranges. Nobody expected Kimmel to rocket past the big guys at NBC and CBS. He was a relatively unknown host, having only been nationally known for "the Man Show". Conan, on the other hand, has spent the past 17 years following up Jay Leno, and some of the biggest hits of television- as NBC spent many of those years near the top of the heap.

So when Conan comes in third- it shows his lack of appeal when it comes to the general public. He had his shot and it didn't work. Why Fox thinks any differently, I'll never understand.

Fox is making revenue in the late nights on their O&O's by running off-net syndicated shows that cost next to nothing to acquire versus running and promoting a nightly show. If this goes though, it is going to be a huge money loser.

When it comes to 18-49 ratings, it appears all the growth is on cable with the Comedy Central shows, Adult Swim, George Lopez, Chelsea Handler. If Fox wants to think long term, they need a better strategy than an aging hipster that never had broad appeal and already has a failed talk show behind him.

 

[benwolf]

Come on everybody... THINK about it!!!! The solution is right under our noses!!!!

College kids/younger demographic.... that's Conan's core audience.

College kids/younger democraphic WAS Conan's core audience. They went to Letterman during Conan's disaster.
FOX spending millions to get Conan? Don't think so.

 

[radiojomo]

This is what I never get...
1. If Conan was on the Tonight Show and he got very lackluster ratings there, what's gonna make him get higher ratings on FOX or on any network?
2. Do you think FOX affiliates WANT to stop all their money making syndication deals for a show that's bound to sink?
3. Why would they put Conan on BEFORE primetime? Is he seriously THAT valuable?
Jay didn't work at 10, so now Conan's gonna work at that time?
4. 11pm at FOX means he won't really be competing with Leno and Letterman. 35 mins is a big difference, especially because Leno and Letterman start up when viewers tune out during the interviews. His real competition will be Chelsea Handler, Adult Swim and George Lopez.

 

[Iowan]

Try My Network TV

Here's a suggeation for Conan O'Brien: According to Wikipedia, reports indicate that My Network TV is seeking a first-run program in the form of a show similar to his former Late Night show or Jimmy Kimmel Live. To put it simply in just one word: Perfect! This contemplation by MYTV could turn into an actual show with Conan as host....

 

[DToTheJ]

Well, My Network is tied to the same cloth as Fox... and hey, if anything is remotely successful for My, it should automatically be transferred over to Fox, on principle!

Realistically, I wouldn't hold my breath...