HD-R's Window of Opportunity Closing Fast

[vsa]

Have you seen this story in USA Today?

Web access for autos goes on the road.

"We're going to see a lot of explosive changes".
"Web access in vehicles is going to be as common as cellphones".
"(Already) putting PCs on wheels (is) Ford Motor. F-Series pickups can now be equipped with FordLink...a rugged PC fits into a cradle in front of the dash. The PC, which runs Microsoft's XP software, can play Internet radio and MP3 music files."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2006-10-31-auto-pcs-usat_x.htm

What does this mean for HD Radio? A quickly-closing window of opportunity! Thoughts?

 

[ElCheapo]

Have you seen this story in USA Today?

Web access for autos goes on the road.

"We're going to see a lot of explosive changes".
"Web access in vehicles is going to be as common as cellphones".
"(Already) putting PCs on wheels (is) Ford Motor. F-Series pickups can now be equipped with FordLink...a rugged PC fits into a cradle in front of the dash. The PC, which runs Microsoft's XP software, can play Internet radio and MP3 music files."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2006-10-31-auto-pcs-usat_x.htm

What does this mean for HD Radio? A quickly-closing window of opportunity! Thoughts?

Thoughts?

1) They aren't going to give away that internet access. It's still PAY RADIO. Since the quality of most internet streams is lower than XM or Sirius (technically and in terms of programming) and only 1/27th of the radio listening population has been willing to pay for satellite and in-car internet is MORE expensive, I'd say in-car internet radio is a non-starter.

2) It's clunky - and there is no clear promotional vehicle for internet stations.

3) You've gotta take into account the way most people use and adopt new technology. To the user, HD Radio looks like regular radio - just with more stations. Internet radio looks nothing like it. Apple makes damn fine computers - many would argue they're better than WinTel machines, but Microsoft is still king because people aren't willing to make a leap that large. When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift.

4) Using a PC while driving will be outlawed eventually. The last thing I want to see is someone reading e-mail behind the wheel. It's just a matter of time until insurance companies and their lobbyists take care of that.

5) HD Radio is here for the long haul. The big boys have WAAAAY too much invested in the technology to abandon it now.

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo wrote: "It's clunky - and there is no clear promotional vehicle for internet stations....When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift."

Wishful thinking.

Ford is ALREADY offering a built-in computer with Internet access in its pickup trucks. Ford is STILL NOT offering any kind of HD radio on ANY of its vehicles.

I find it noteworthy that Internet radio has millions of daily listeners without the benefit of any organized 200 million dollar advertising campaigns - and without any need for an "Internet radio cartel".

With your kind of wishful thinking, I'm afraid too many of traditional radio's big boys will become a bunch of small fry.

 

[dumber than a box of hair]

When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift.

When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, you'll see cars being returned for warranty service on the radio in droves. People will not understand why the HD signal doesn't cover the same area as the analog, assuming they can hear the difference anyhow in a typically noisy environment subject to continuously changing reception conditions. People will not understand why the secondary channels simply die even sooner than the drop-back to analog on the main channel, because there's no analog fallback for the secondary channels (and according to an NPR engineering study, the secondary channels are only usable to approximately the 85-dBu contour anyhow, meaning that they won't cover nearly as much area as the main channel). And before someone tries to reply, "it'll all be in the owner's manual," how many people actually read and understand what's in the owner's manual? No, a new system of radio is supposed to be better than the old system, not worse.

The first major auto maker to put HD radios in their cars is BMW, on their 7-Series cars. I'd love to see the looks on the faces of the service writers at BMW dealers when disgruntled owners, who spent upwards of $60,000 for a new car, come into the service area with "what is this piece of crap radio you put in here?" and they'll be right. When you spend that sort of dough, anything that isn't 110% perfect is going to piss them off. (And BTW, the BMW HD radio does NOT have secondary-channel reception. It was designed too long ago.)

Once the major auto makers see how they're going to pay up the wazoo for warranty replacements of the radios (a relatively low-profit item for them), HD radios will quietly disappear from cars.

 

[Chuck]

1) They aren't going to give away that internet access. It's still PAY RADIO. Since the quality of most internet streams is lower than XM or Sirius (technically and in terms of programming) and only 1/27th of the radio listening population has been willing to pay for satellite and in-car internet is MORE expensive, I'd say in-car internet radio is a non-starter.

I think people will be more than willing to pay for it. Internet availability in your car opens up a whole world of things far beyond Internet radio. I think it will be huge. Just the ability to send and receive emails wherever you are, for instance from a job site, or while traveling is very appealing. If you're driving in a strange town and need to know where something is, just look on Mapquest. Need to change travel plans? Just do it on line. Need a motel room? No problem. Need to get that proposal out to a new client? Easy. This has the ability to make your vehicle a traveling office. You can communicate instantly with anyone anywhere in the world. That is a very compelling idea. People will pay big bucks to do it. In fact, quite a few already do.

Want proof? Just go to a campground and look at the motor homes. You'll see quite a few of them with Direct Way Internet satellite receivers. Why? It’s because people want the Internet. Those satellite links are not cheap, but it allows them to conduct business from wherever they choose to be. To a lot of people, it is worth it. They no longer have to be shackled to an office. It's all about freedom to do as you please and still are able to make a living.

All things being equal, I'd much rather have Internet availability in my car or truck, than have an HD radio.

2) It's clunky - and there is no clear promotional vehicle for internet stations.

So far it doesn't look like HD radio has a "clear promotional vehicle" either. And you guys are supposed to be in the advertising business.

3) You've gotta take into account the way most people use and adopt new technology. To the user, HD Radio looks like regular radio - just with more stations. Internet radio looks nothing like it.

Actually, some do. One of my wife's billions of Christmas catalogs (Herrington, I think) has a large feature on a wireless Internet radio. It looks just like a table radio to me. By the way, there were no HD radios in the same catalog.

When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift.

I'll agree that having HD radios in cars is the only way this will take off. Will they be "stock" or an extra cost option? I don't know, but that may be pivotal to their acceptance.

4) Using a PC while driving will be outlawed eventually. The last thing I want to see is someone reading e-mail behind the wheel. It's just a matter of time until insurance companies and their lobbyists take care of that.

Maybe. I'm not wild about driving on the same road as someone who has a keyboard in their lap, but I'm sure people do it right now. More than likely, the PC will be integrated into the audio and navigation system of the cars, using the nav. system's screen. It is easy enough to build it so you can't use it while the car is in motion.

Have you shopped for new cars recently? More than a few of them have very complicated audio/video/navigation systems as well as cell phones built in. Sometimes they are linked with features like OnStar, etc. That makes the idea of ripping it out to put an HD radio in the car very unappealing. At best, the industry will have to come up with outboard converters. I'm not sure how popular those will be. I recently purchased a new car, and it has 36 stations presets for AM-FM and XM. There is also a six disc CD changer. Of course, I could go through the entire menu of XM choices. The fact of the matter is I can't even surf past all those choices before I'm at my destination. Do I want some more channels? Not really

5) HD Radio is here for the long haul. The big boys have WAAAAY too much invested in the technology to abandon it now.

They will have to. And it may be a long haul.

 

[Chuck]

The first major auto maker to put HD radios in their cars is BMW, on their 7-Series cars. I'd love to see the looks on the faces of the service writers at BMW dealers when disgruntled owners, who spent upwards of $60,000 for a new car, come into the service area with "what is this piece of crap radio you put in here?" and they'll be right. When you spend that sort of dough, anything that isn't 110% perfect is going to piss them off. (And BTW, the BMW HD radio does NOT have secondary-channel reception. It was designed too long ago.)

Once the major auto makers see how they're going to pay up the wazoo for warranty replacements of the radios (a relatively low-profit item for them), HD radios will quietly disappear from cars.

It is already happening. I frequent a news group for Public Radio stations, many of whom have gone HD because they got grants to do so.

It seems that people with the new Lexus HD radio are experiencing a lot of problems with it, especially if the HD station they are listening to is using RDS and/or SCA channels. Lots of Public radios stations have those services. A popular one is reading services for the blind. It's a little "awkward" to shut them off. Unfortunately, it makes the Lexus radio do some very odd things and owners are taking them back to the dealer asking them to fix it. So far the only fix is to either put a non HD radio in the car, or get the station to turn off their SCA channels.

The really embarrassing part is Lexus is a major contributor to NPR, and your average Lexus driver is the target audience for most public radio stations.

I have no idea what the outcome will be, but it is an interesting predicament.

 

[700WLW]

ElCheapo wrote: "5) HD Radio is here for the long haul. The big boys have WAAAAY too much invested in the technology to abandon it now. When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift."

There has been no indication that HD Radio will be supplied free with new vehicles - there is no way, since iBiquity will need to recoop the $200 million invested in the ad campaign and investors have been waiting 7 years for a payoff. Satellite Radio could get away with this, because receivers are as cheap as $39 and there is a monthly fee to generate continued revenue. You have the same flawed logic as DE - as Mark Ramsey has pointed out, just because they build it, doesn't mean anybody will come. I thought that Wireless Internet was coming to vehicles by 2008, and that means Internet Radio, too - guess I was wrong !

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "5) HD Radio is here for the long haul. The big boys have WAAAAY too much invested in the technology to abandon it now. When FREE HD Radio starts coming in vehicles, adoption will be swift."

There has been no indication that HD Radio will be supplied free with new vehicles - there is no way, since iBiquity will need to recoop the $200 million invested in the ad campaign and investors have been waiting 7 years for a payoff. Satellite Radio could get away with this, because receivers are as cheap as $39 and there is a monthly fee to generate continued revenue. You have the same flawed logic as DE - as Mark Ramsey has pointed out, just because they build it, doesn't mean anybody will come. I thought that Wireless Internet was coming to vehicles by 2008, and that means Internet Radio, too - guess I was wrong !

Radio as an industry has a 500,000,000 watt bully pulpit.

Of those 500,000,000 watts, the ones that matter are owned by the "cartel."

Radio is a reactionary industry - sad but true. If they start feeling their large investment in HD is in danger somehow, you'll see the power the "cartel" really wields. Automakers would have no choice but to install HD if radio as an industry energized the public the way it can.

The real problem is that programmers and managers in HD markets don't particularly care about HD adoption or implementation. Generally for them, it means more work for no more pay. It means lost airtime that they could be using to promote the stations they're programming now - not the ones someone else will be programming 10 years from now.

Right now, this promotional effort is being handled by programming for the most part - and that's why there's very little promotional effort being put into HD. If the "cartel" wants to see results, they're going to have to take HD promotion out of the hands of people who are effectively competing with it.

 

[Tom Wells]

I wouldn't buy a cell phone, but guess what? My employer issued one to me in 1999, and my new employer in 2004 issued one as well.
Oh, and they pay the bill. This spring, they issued Cingular wireless access cards for everyone with laptops, and they are paying the 60 dollars/mo access fee. All I had to do was solder in a line input at the volume control of my car radio. I have internet audio in my car
for free! I won't call it radio, 'cause it's not radio. But even people who would not adopt new technologies like myself, will receive such things as gifts. Now, just how often have I used this ability? Only a few times. I have wondered however, if there is freeware audio recording software I can put on my laptop to record what I hear on the radio. Where I tapped in, the connection can be used as line-in or line-out (same 1/8 stereo phone jack on laptop). Many people at customer locations ask about the cellular-internet access for my laptop, but balk at the idea of 60 dollars/mo. I know I would not be able to afford it. I bet far more people will be willing to spend the monthly fee for internet access, than to buy a one-trick pony like an HD radio.

And yes, the people who drop big bucks for the high-end cars are THE most likely ones to NOT tolerate a radio that just mutes, or lurches back and forth between modes. They don't WANT to know about the technology at all, they think they are paying for a completely engineered product with NO glitches..
They don't lift the top off the toilet if the flapper sticks, they call a plumber.
More money than practical knowledge, they find such matters beneath them, and go straight back to the car dealer with such a problem.
Convinced that there is a problem with just the radio in their car, they'll want a different one, and of course, the new one will work exactly the same. And they'll be upset that the dash was disassembled, causing other problems, squeaks, etc.

 

[700WLW]

ElCheapo wrote: "Automakers would have no choice but to install HD if radio as an industry energized the public the way it can."

But, HD Radio ain't !

 

[ElCheapo]

But, HD Radio ain't !

That doesn't even make sense in the context of the quote, but hey - I realize I'm not dealing with rocket scientists here!

 

[Chuck]

When in doubt, follow the money. Do any automakers have a significant investment in Ibiquity? I don't know, but I do know that several have large investments in XM and Sirius.

I wonder which they are more likely to "throw in" when you buy a new car? I bought a new car and got free XM (at least for a while). You couldn't get the car with a leather interior and no XM radio. It is part of the package.

Will they do that with HD? Good question.

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo wrote: "If they start feeling their large investment in HD is in danger somehow, you'll see the power the "cartel" really wields.  Automakers would have no choice but to install HD if radio as an industry energized the public the way it can."

Like the radio stick industry energized people to buy AM Stereo radios?
Like the radio stick industry is now energizing sales of HD radios?
Do you actually believe the sheep out there are ready to buy whatever you want them to at the drop of a hat? Such hubris! Such arrogance! You live in a fantasy world.

Since "going digital" requires new radios, the stick industry could have used its influence to lobby for a new band of frequencies. The new band could have been set up to provide vastly improved signal coverage with less interference. They didn't do that because the cartel knew additional competing stations would be added - stations owned by outsiders. The cartel is all about playing monopoly. They want to control all of the pipes. They are dinosaurs.

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "If they start feeling their large investment in HD is in danger somehow, you'll see the power the "cartel" really wields. Automakers would have no choice but to install HD if radio as an industry energized the public the way it can."

Like the radio stick industry energized people to buy AM Stereo radios?
Like the radio stick industry is now energizing sales of HD radios?
Do you actually believe the sheep out there are ready to buy whatever you want them to at the drop of a hat? Such hubris! Such arrogance! You live in a fantasy world.

Since "going digital" requires new radios, the stick industry could have used its influence to lobby for a new band of frequencies. The new band could have been set up to provide vastly improved signal coverage with less interference. They didn't do that because the cartel knew additional competing stations would be added - stations owned by outsiders. The cartel is all about playing monopoly. They want to control all of the pipes. They are dinosaurs.

AM Stereo wasn't derailed by the industry - it was derailed by squabbling manufacturers and the Commission's failure to adopt a standard in a timely manner.

Beyond that, how many people really cared if AM was in stereo?

HD is important for one reason and one reason only - multicasting. Without that, there's really not much point.

Call me arrogant. I'll gladly admit to it. I have good reason to be. Satellite was the big threat, and it turned out to be really no threat at all. People here are carping about internet radio, but everything I see says it's satellite part two - only the delivery mechanism is much more complicated and expensive.

HD is simple. It's easy to use.

Sorry you couldn't make it in the business vsa. It's really a lot of fun being this arrogant!

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo wrote: "AM Stereo wasn't derailed by the industry...how many people really cared if AM was in stereo?"

You mean the industry couldn't convince people to buy radios back then either.

ElCheapo wrote: "HD is important for one reason and one reason only - multicasting.  Without that, there's really not much point."

Listeners don't care if you have more radio stations-in-a-box operating out of a closet.

ElCheapo wrote: "Call me arrogant.  I'll gladly admit to it.  I have good reason to be.  Satellite was the big threat, and it turned out to be really no threat at all.  People here are carping about internet radio, but everything I see says it's satellite part two - only the delivery mechanism is much more complicated and expensive."

Satellite was never the big threat. Old technology for one thing. Extremely high cost structure for another. Even the satcasters are migrating to the web. The Internet delivery system is flexible, scaleable, runs circles around HD Radio and doesn't even require the purchase of a radio.

ElCheapo wrote: "HD is simple.  It's easy to use."

It does not deliver as was promised. Simple to use? So were DCC digital compact cassettes. 

ElCheapo wrote: "Sorry you couldn't make it in the business vsa.  It's really a lot of fun being this arrogant!"

You are a fool. Arrogant people set themselves up for a fall by making false assumptions. I'm doing quite fine in the business and beyond thank you.

 

[700WLW]

ElCheapo/OldGringo/DE wrote: "Beyond that, how many people really cared if AM was in stereo? HD is important for one reason and one reason only - multicasting. Without that, there's really not much point. Call me arrogant. I'll gladly admit to it. I have good reason to be. Satellite was the big threat, and it turned out to be really no threat at all. People here are carping about internet radio, but everything I see says it's satellite part two - only the delivery mechanism is much more complicated and expensive. HD is simple. It's easy to use."

Beyond that, how many people care if AM/FM are in HD/IBOC - not many ! Multicasting is just a repetition of the same old terrestrial radio and has not been an incentive to a very apathetic general public and auto manufacturers - and this is assuming that the HD multicast signal can be received at all. I don't call the deliver system (i.e., WiFi, WiMax, 3G) to be complicated at all, because it takes advantage of the existing cellular phone infrastructure, and now Wireless Internet is becoming available ahead of schedule. Satellite Radio is definately a threat to HD Radio - remember, "Satellite Radio we will beat you !". HD is not simple - HD costs many thousands for stations to upgrade and the HD Radio receivers require dipole antennas to be mounted outside, as if consumers are going to be willing to deal with that joke - the very poor HD Radio sales figures prove that point.

 

[SUPERCASTER]

But, HD Radio ain't !

That doesn't even make sense in the context of the quote, but hey - I realize I'm not dealing with rocket scientists here!

Oh, you "rocket scientists". Always spewing your hot gases everywhere. Judging by the continuous snow jobs, you probably consider yourself a "meteorologist" as well.

HD is important for one reason and one reason only - multicasting. Without that, there's really not much point.

To get a few low bitrate "multicasting" of a few digital streams limited to a couple of miles from the transmitter site before they mute out will not motivate anyone to run out and replace all their radios with expensive new HD ones. Almost total lack of interest will kill HD radio as broadcasters expenses mount, time is wasted, and income and profits fall.
HD is a looser. Just a bottomless money pit.
Where are those "Hundreds of new" "stations between the stations" I was promised I could get with an HD Radio?
Answer-Those new "stations" are all on internet radio, for free, no extra expense or necessity to buy defective, new HD radios.
Internet radio is truly free, it comes as a free bonus with your internet connection (even at work, for some). You get all the HD streams, most XM streams, some Sirius streams, plus tens of thousands of new internet streams from creative new sources (not the cartel) some streaming with much better quality then HD Radio, and even in 5.1 surround sound!
If you insist on over the air digital radio use FMeXtra www.dreinc.com. At least it does not cost much to impliment, is full power, isn't proprietary, the radios are simple, requires no FCC rule or standard changes, and it doesn't jam your neighbors.
If, as you claim, multicasting is the only point to HD Radio, then it's all but over for HD.

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "AM Stereo wasn't derailed by the industry...how many people really cared if AM was in stereo?"

You mean the industry couldn't convince people to buy radios back then either.

ElCheapo wrote: "HD is important for one reason and one reason only - multicasting. Without that, there's really not much point."

Listeners don't care if you have more radio stations-in-a-box operating out of a closet.

ElCheapo wrote: "Call me arrogant. I'll gladly admit to it. I have good reason to be. Satellite was the big threat, and it turned out to be really no threat at all. People here are carping about internet radio, but everything I see says it's satellite part two - only the delivery mechanism is much more complicated and expensive."

Satellite was never the big threat. Old technology for one thing. Extremely high cost structure for another. Even the satcasters are migrating to the web. The Internet delivery system is flexible, scaleable, runs circles around HD Radio and doesn't even require the purchase of a radio.

ElCheapo wrote: "HD is simple. It's easy to use."

It does not deliver as was promised. Simple to use? So were DCC digital compact cassettes.

ElCheapo wrote: "Sorry you couldn't make it in the business vsa. It's really a lot of fun being this arrogant!"

You are a fool. Arrogant people set themselves up for a fall by making false assumptions. I'm doing quite fine in the business and beyond thank you.

AM Stereo never made it because the technology was almost totally irrelevant by the time a standard was adopted and it was presented to listeners. You don't need stereo to listen to talk radio. FM was already king for music radio in most markets before AM Stereo was rolled out.

Internet radio in cars won't work for the reasons I've outlined numerous times - and on the off chance it does, traditional broadcasters will be providing the content that people actually listen to.

Lastly, there is no way you could be making it in the business. You read like a washed-up has been (or never was) that's operating an internet stream. You're transparent.

 

[700WLW]

ElCheapo wrote: "Internet radio in cars won't work for the reasons I've outlined numerous times - and on the off chance it does, traditional broadcasters will be providing the content that people actually listen to."

Internet Radio is already in-dash in Canada, and Wireless Internet is already in-dash here. Portable Internet Radio receivers are already in the market-place.

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "Internet radio in cars won't work for the reasons I've outlined numerous times - and on the off chance it does, traditional broadcasters will be providing the content that people actually listen to."

Internet Radio is already in-dash in Canada, and Wireless Internet is already in-dash here. Portable Internet Radio receivers are already in the market-place.

That's great. And what are they charging for bandwidth? It isn't free - bottom line. XM and Sirius has already proven that not enough people will pay for radio - and their marketing is much, much better than any marketing I've seen for internet radio.

Come to think of it, I haven't seen any marketing for internet radio outside of terrestrial stations promoting their streams.

And lastly, there's the insurance industry. They simply will not stand for people taking their eyes off the road to deal with mobile internet. That's Allstate's stand - you can bet on it - and they have a VERY powerful Washington lobby.

In-car internet will be banned for drivers before it gets off the ground, and that leaves internet radio as the only reason to have access in-car. People won't pay for that just like they won't pay for satellite.

You won't find enough geeks in the real world willing to wire their laptop or pocket PC into their stereo just to listen to mobile streaming.