I never thought I would tell someone this...

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

For the most part, radio still is very localized. Far more localized than TV. And it hasn't helped. The only things local that matter to the public are weather and traffic. Everything else is up for grabs. Howard Stern proved that you don't have to be local to win.

thank you for posing a real challenge. I am convinced there are additional local things that matter to the public... but like much of the rest of the industry, I have not reduced to words what they might be.

I will work on it.

By the way, the things we are trying to identify are long term.... maybe "eternal". (Would fixed be a better word.) Stern is a temporary*** phenomena that works because the rest of us have been too lazy and have not identified what organic factors of well designed radio we have been overlooking.

***Strong, gifted personalities often hold fort in politics, entertainment, religion for 30 or 40 years but their techniques cannot be passed on, learned or harnessed by others.

 

[TheBigA]

People try to "cookie cutter" success. For a period of time, localism worked. So the assumption is that all one needs to do to repeat that success is localism. But that wasn't really what made radio successful at the time. It was just an element. Everyone thinks they have the formula to success. Just add water and stir. If it was that easy, we wouldn't be in the situation we're in.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Go back and parse what I wrote a little more carefully. I tried to say that while we were high-five'ing the sacredness of "localism" there were probably some other "organic" elements at work.

This is a little bit like seeking the cause of cancer.

Or like the young miss said: "You gotta' kiss a lot of frogs to find your prince."

 

[TheBigA]

I'm agreeing with you.

 

[gr8oldies]

Sad to say, other media are even more local. Set up a Twitter search for your city or suburb and you'll know everything going on.

 

[cspotrun]

i would NEVER tell someone that they should consider radio a career choice. radio is a "Horse Sh!^" business, and i found this out after the first time i went through "The Radio Meat Grinder" which was several years ago, and oh YES], i've been through that same Meat Grinder many times since then. BUT.... knowing that, what i would tell anyone considering radio as a career choice is if you enjoy what you're doing, you will never work a day in your life...
but you better be prepaired to go through The Radio Meat Grinder, and with any luck, your enjoyment of the work will out weigh the Cruelness and Crap you will face, this business is not for the meek....

 

[PTBoardOp94]

There are plenty of stations who have had the same owner for years and it doesn't mean no one has been willing to buy them; no doubt during the feeding frenzy of consolodation someone, or several someones, showed up at the doorstep, checkbook in hand.

Yes, this is true. But if any of those stations I listed last week were for sale now, where would a buyer come from? I know it wouldn't be Citadel or Regent. I don't know of anyone who is buying, except EMF.

 

[cold_coffee]

Analog broadcasting is doomed in the near future. It doesn't take a genius or great philosopher to
see this coming. Will broadcasters be able to make the switch in time to survive in a digital age?
I'm not sure?

There is no need for debate on this. Doom is for sure if radio fails to act. And, of course there are many who are not wise enough to act in a crisis.

By 2030, I don't think you will hear any FM or AM analog radio. Perhaps this will happen much sooner.

Next, so called enlightened but unwise men were sitting in the bars of the Titanic and World Trade Center
on Doomsday discussing philosophy. Suddenly, on them, the walls caved in. Those of you who fail to see
the coming doom are like those unwise men.

 

[Tom Wells]

Except that nothig will ever destroy the fact that physically, certain wavelengths do not well support digital modes,
and these also take best advantage of useful, natrual, dependable widespread propogation at incredible efficiency,
considering transmit power/potential listenrs. No amount of digital doom will ever erase these advantges of analog
in wavelengths longer than 10m. Oh, I learned this in Valpo Tech. They started and 1874 and died with diginity rather
have the value of their degree tarnish by acceptance of federal money.
The same people who warned me to stay out of radio, bless 'em.

 

[cold_coffee]

Except, you are writing about AM. Except, AM won't be here in 10 years. Accept that.
Radio does not have to join the digital age. It may die. Time is runing out right now.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Analog broadcasting is doomed in the near future. It doesn't take a genius or great philosopher to
see this coming. Will broadcasters be able to make the switch in time to survive in a digital age?
I'm not sure?

Analog vs. digital certainly deserves to be included in the discussion.... but you make it sound like that is the ONLY topic in the conversation. If broadcasters would suck-it-up, put on their space-suits or whatever you wear to a crisis-moment-conversion and just move everything over to digital (both AM and FM) in the next 18 months, everything would suddenly be rosy. Our children would no longer have dental cavaties to be restored. Mabe even the Tototas-gone-wild epidemic would cease.

Let me offer to you the counter proposition (which is contained in so much of the discussion here) that maybe programming content and programming presentation style is a much, much larger factor in intelligent discussion of the future of radio.

The central point of this thread is: "Would you advise a young person from your church or other social engagement to prepare themselves for a life in the world of radio?" If I were presented with that scenario in the next seven days, I would first say to them: "You are asking the question the wrong way." I would then offer them the "substitute motion" as they say in Robert's Rules of Order. You should be asking: "Should I prepare for a career in audio based communications?" That might mean writing speeches for the President. Or improving the verbiage we hear on the phone during the Press One For.... hades. Or being a hostage negotiator. Or selling time-share condos. Or being the Billy Graham of the next generation. Or being a professional wedding DJ.

Then if the smart people of the world can figure out some kind of program content that will cause people to reach up the press the button that activates the receiving device (digital or analog not importat, broadcast through the air or down the fiber-optic pipe not important) and you young frined has the kind of brain that can wrap itself around content.... then maybe he/she can some day engage in something they might still call radio.

 

[bigtime]

Right now a lot of TSL comes from people listening to whatever station that they can relate to that comes in well on a cheap radio. It's nowhere near high tech at many listening locations. Maybe that will change, but not real soon.

 

[radiolistener66]

WhoDat... radio is, by and large, a talent business--like singing or dancing or carrying a football. Yeah, it's a "meat grinder" the same way the NFL is a "meat grinder" for running backs who run the 40 in 5.1... and the same way the music industry is for the gal belting out tunes down at the Holiday Inn who is just a little "pitchy." Successful air-talents are "talents." Successful salespeople are "talents." And the top talents often (not always, but often) advance to running radio businesses--likewise a talent in itself. Sorry, man, but maybe your talent is in something else. Hey, I'm a lousy dancer.

Cold Coffee... successful, profitable enterprises have a funny way of sticking around a lot longer than you think. One of my college professors was a WGN alum, and took us for a visit to 720 back in the 1960s. He told us young students that AM would be gone within 20 years. A few weeks ago (roughly 42 years after my teacher's sage prediction) BIA released it's report on the top billing stations for 2009 and WGN was #10 nationally at a cool $36.5 million. (FWIW, a dozen years ago WGN did about $32 million--decent growth for a dying station).

So before calling Vegas to bet your life savings that AM will be dead in 10 years, you may want to consider stretching that out a tad. Pin it on the day you expect WGN to pull the plug and send the license back to DC.

 

[sketchb13]

As a person with something of an experience in broadcasting, and having been removed from said positions due to the financial "crisis" which we are now enduring as a country, I can tell you a few things about getting into broadcasting now.

First of all, if someone is in school and planning to be in radio, they should immediately change their major. I don't say that lightly. I have a BS in Radio/TV/Film and Communications. I really enjoyed my time both in school and on the air. But. It is not a good choice. There are so many other careers out there which will earn you more money, more enjoyment, and more peace of mind than radio.

On the other hand, if someone is interested in being on the radio, there is nothing wrong with that. Just don't waste 30 G's of your parent's money to do it. Go into a radio station and tell them that you're interested in a job. You might be surprised how few people do that these days. However--and this is key--DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DO RADIO AS A PRIMARY INCOME SOURCE. Sure, you might find yourself someday strapped into a programmer's chair. You may even find yourself with a decent income relative to the current financial "norm," but the bubble will burst someday. And when it does, you will have to find another job. And I speak from experience here--it is somewhat difficult to go from telling people about the latest concert information to telling them what the daily specials are.

Either way, good luck.

 

[landtuna]

Analog broadcasting is doomed in the near future.

The big question I have is "why"? You provide no reasoning to back up your claim nor does there seem to be any external driver for any move towards digital radio. Conversely:

1. There is an enormous number of analog radio's currently in existence which listeners likely would not replace (and certainly not in the current economic situation).
2. There is no compelling reason to go digital. The government is not clamoring for frequencies (as with TV) nor can anything be gained by compressing current frequency allocations except perhaps more crowding on existing bandwidth. But with the exploding LPFM's this does not appear to be a driver either.
3. Lack of new programming means no compelling demand by listeners. We already have plenty of RushBots, sportsBots, infoBots, religiousBots and a plethora of music offerings. What will drive the new digital channels? Answer - nothing. No demand.
4. Technical drawbacks of digital radio will aggravate, rather than please, its users. Lack of range and inability to lock to a digital signal are seemingly unresolvable and will cause huge customer satisfaction issues for any mobile listeners and equipment providers.

Digital radio is a technology which provides very limited benefits under restrictive listening conditions. Like DTV it will cause more problems than it solves. Unlike DTV there is no compelling reason to implement it except perhaps for the investors of iBiquity.

Next, so called enlightened but unwise men were sitting in the bars of the Titanic and World Trade Center
on Doomsday discussing philosophy. Suddenly, on them, the walls caved in. Those of you who fail to see
the coming doom are like those unwise men.

The Titanic and WTC metaphors are inappropriate and have no relationship to the current state of radio and to digital radio specifically except that, perhaps, the owners of White Star Lines, like iBiquity, were guilty of exaggeration in that their ship, like digital radio, provided benefits that were an illusion.

 

[KeithE4]

Cold Coffee... successful, profitable enterprises have a funny way of sticking around a lot longer than you think. One of my college professors was a WGN alum, and took us for a visit to 720 back in the 1960s. He told us young students that AM would be gone within 20 years. A few weeks ago (roughly 42 years after my teacher's sage prediction) BIA released it's report on the top billing stations for 2009 and WGN was #10 nationally at a cool $36.5 million. (FWIW, a dozen years ago WGN did about $32 million--decent growth for a dying station).

How much of that $32 million is for time bought during Cubs & Black Hawks games? I'll guess a good portion, if not most of it.

So before calling Vegas to bet your life savings that AM will be dead in 10 years, you may want to consider stretching that out a tad. Pin it on the day you expect WGN to pull the plug and send the license back to DC.

Maybe not 10 years, but 15 unless the AM band is fixed (read: thinned out to a maximum of 10 stations per market - maybe a few more in NYC or LA, plus improving audio quality and eliminating IBOC). In the case of Chicago, only the blowtorches and WIND are able to cover the entire metro 24/7. In Indianapolis, none do and they never did, at least at night.

Not only does FM cover a market better, mostly due to being non-directional, but few under 50 even bother with AM, except for sports and Limbaugh. The AM band is dying of old age. Also, modern consumer devices cannot receive AM, even if tuner chips were included, because it's physically impossible to put an AM antenna in something as small as an iPod or cellphone. Those low frequencies/long wavelengths just won't allow it.