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Is it finally going to happen? And which two networks will it be?

Since people often don't follow links or interpret tables, here's the upshot of the report:

Only 5 (out of more than 200) Neilsen markets have OTA viewing levels of 20% or more.

2 of those are within a fraction of a percent of being under 20%.

By contrast, 124 Neilsen markets have OTA viewing levels of less than 10%. It drops as low as 2.7%.

The vast majority of Americans are already paying a cable, satellite or other alternative delivery system for TV.
 
The question is, how much longer will they, and how much longer will raw cable penetration numbers even matter if they're not interested in your content?
 
Morgan Wick said:
The question is, how much longer will they, and how much longer will raw cable penetration numbers even matter if they're not interested in your content?

The OTA numbers have dropped precipitously in the 5 years since I looked at them last. Looks like a lot of OTA households ran up the white flag and got satellite or cable during the analog/digital switch.

You might see people dumping cable and/or satellite for Netflix or other online alternatives that give them variety and on-demand capability, but I don't see any indication of a mass return to OTA, where none of those things exist.

How you gonna get 'em back to the farm once they've seen Breaking Bad, Mad Men and Duck Dynasty?
 
I'm pretty sure the numbers I've seen have suggested that OTA percentages have climbed in more recent years, if not quite back to pre-digital transition numbers. But even besides that, I get cable and I still support the idea of free-to-air broadcast television enough that I've boycotted the BCS every year it's been on cable. There have been polls suggesting that a large number of people with cable have at least thought about cutting the cord. Using Netflix to watch popular cable shows doesn't preclude the presence of an antenna, so it's not about leaving Mad Men behind, it's about keeping the Super Bowl around.
 
Morgan Wick said:
I'm pretty sure the numbers I've seen have suggested that OTA percentages have climbed in more recent years, if not quite back to pre-digital transition numbers. But even besides that, I get cable and I still support the idea of free-to-air broadcast television enough that I've boycotted the BCS every year it's been on cable. There have been polls suggesting that a large number of people with cable have at least thought about cutting the cord. Using Netflix to watch popular cable shows doesn't preclude the presence of an antenna, so it's not about leaving Mad Men behind, it's about keeping the Super Bowl around.

Found the trends.

Cable peaked in '99 and has been slipping since. However, other alternative delivery systems (including satellite) have more than made up for it, and OTA has been in a steady decline. There's not been a single flat year, much less an increase in OTA.

In '99, 22% of American households were OTA.

In 2007, 10.7% of American households were OTA.

In 2012, 8.5% of American households were OTA.

During those last 5 years, cable penetration declined less than 1% (61.3 to 60.4), but other alternative delivery systems increased more than 3% (28.0 to 31.1).

People can think about cutting the cord all they want, but most often, if and when they act on it, they simply swap it for a different cord.
 
I did a review on Aereo TV here. I live in Chicago and it was no issue to get it.

You have to have a NYC market address. Simple enough, just change your billing address on your credit card. I don't have physical statements so I can change it to whatever and it works.

They also look at your IP address but you can over ride that, with a click. This has to be as some IP address and companies don't match. For instance my work is in downtown Chicago, but our work IP is out of Pennsylvania.

The problem is Aereo needs minimal 6.0 download. This is problematic for me as in my part of Chicago, DSL is all that's available and the top speed I can get is 5.0 (U-verse does not provide service to my part of Chicago and Comcast provides cable but not Internet to my section of Chicago. How convenient the poor section of Chicago is "magically" denied. Hmmmm ::))

I liked Aereo and I might subscribe to it or other services, I don't have OTA TV because of the dense buildings where I live and don't really miss it but who knows if I could get decent streaming...

But then there is the DATA CAPS. ATT limits me to 150gb which is a lot unless you do High Def or stream all the time SDTV.
 
This was posted in the other thread, and it pretty much agrees with TheBigA that this is pretty much an idle threat intended to scare policymakers and the courts: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/b...ing-the-wagons.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1&

With regard to OTA penetration, different measures say different things, but in any case I wasn't talking about the last five years or the last decade-plus, but the last year or two or three. I tried to make that clear enough in my last post, but apparently didn't quite succeed.
 
If Aereo was to fail in the Courts, couldn't they make a fortune by licensing and selling those half-inch by half-inch "miracle" antennas? They say they are helping broadcasters reach the viewers who can't get an OTA signal well with conventional antennas...Why can't they just sell their new invention on the open market?
 
Mark said:
I did a review on Aereo TV here. I live in Chicago and it was no issue to get it.

You have to have a NYC market address. Simple enough, just change your billing address on your credit card. I don't have physical statements so I can change it to whatever and it works.

They also look at your IP address but you can over ride that, with a click. This has to be as some IP address and companies don't match. For instance my work is in downtown Chicago, but our work IP is out of Pennsylvania.

The problem is Aereo needs minimal 6.0 download. This is problematic for me as in my part of Chicago, DSL is all that's available and the top speed I can get is 5.0 (U-verse does not provide service to my part of Chicago and Comcast provides cable but not Internet to my section of Chicago. How convenient the poor section of Chicago is "magically" denied. Hmmmm ::))

I liked Aereo and I might subscribe to it or other services, I don't have OTA TV because of the dense buildings where I live and don't really miss it but who knows if I could get decent streaming...

But then there is the DATA CAPS. ATT limits me to 150gb which is a lot unless you do High Def or stream all the time SDTV.

Interesting. A bit of the opposite for me. 6 Mbps is no problem for me as I get many times that with no cap. But I live in the middle of nowhere and the market I fall under is ranked in the late 80's for Nielson. Aereo will probably not launch here for a long time, if ever.
 
kenglish said:
If Aereo was to fail in the Courts, couldn't they make a fortune by licensing and selling those half-inch by half-inch "miracle" antennas? They say they are helping broadcasters reach the viewers who can't get an OTA signal well with conventional antennas...Why can't they just sell their new invention on the open market?
I don't think it's the antennas that do it so much as the method of delivery.
 
michael hagerty said:
Cable peaked in '99 and has been slipping since. However, other alternative delivery systems (including satellite) have more than made up for it, and OTA has been in a steady decline. There's not been a single flat year, much less an increase in OTA.

Don't forget how helpful our gubmint was in booting people off OTA with their ill-engineered digital conversion. Many people I talked with thought that digital meant they had to subscribe to cable so they did.
 
KeithE4 said:
According to Forbes magazine, two of the Big Four are contemplating ending OTA operations. They don't say which two or when, although Fox is mentioned in the article, and my guess for the second one is NBC. Aereo and Dish Network's Hopper are getting the (official) blame.

Link: Forbes

For one, I think NBC is toast.
 
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