Is Radio the Next Drive-In Theater?

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

In some cases the radio situation parallels the land situation with drive-in theatres. This is probably a bigger problem with A.M. stations than F.M. . I looked at one deal where the owner started quoting the price per acre that Walmart had just paid for nearby land to build a new store and the price of the station suddenly became inflated because certainly the station plus the land had to be worth more than what the land alone would sell for. (We may never know what the real value of the land is for Walmart was not looking for a second piece of land in the area .

In doing my due diligence, I know what his sales were, I knew what I could hope to do in business, thus I could calculate the maximum price I could pay and still have a viable business operation. The maximum price I thought I should pay was about equal to the estimated value of the land. That left no value to cover the building, the broadcast equipment, and the franchise value of the license.

I looked at another station where I saw the same scenario coming and I walked away before I got a look at the books. When I saw the price of land in the area, whether I bought his, or bought the station without the real estate and then went looking for replacement land, I knew it was not a viable deal.

The expansion of the rules allowing multiple ownership of many, many stations was a real windfall for many small market station owners in the last ten years as they sold their blue sky. The increase in station prices may leave a lot of small station owners owning something that looks valuable, but something that is actually worthless because no one can afford to buy it.

 

[gr8oldies]

I will admit to having had a dream to own radio stations which never came to fruition, and if it had I'd have sold when the CCs of the world were writing those golden checks..and lets say I wouldn't be experiencing another Ohio winter. Would I buy now? Doubtful. I'm thinking of one of our locals which sits in the community of Xenia, OH and is licensed to Fairborn, doing Southern Gospel and preacher shows. The Wal Mart Supercenter, Lowes, etc have built up all around those towers, and I wouldn't doubt most folks in Xenia have no idea what they are. I wouldn't doubt the land under those towers wouldn't sell for much more than the operating radio station. Eminent domain, anyone?

 

[FRR]

The simple fact is this; if you want a great variety of music and large playlists, forget AM or FM. Sat is the way to go. If you just want noise in the morning on the car radio and don't mind listening to the same 50 songs every week, tune in to your local stations. Am I wrong here?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

If you just want noise in the morning on the car radio and don't mind listening to the same 50 songs every week, tune in to your local stations. Am I wrong here?

In too many cases you are exactly right. And if that continues to be true, the local small-market radio station will be this generation's drive-in theater, this generation's buggy whip factory.

In my county there is a road that made the news last night on Atlanta TV. A gas main was leaking and TV showed this hole about 24 inches in diameter spewing natural gas out into the open. Oodles and gobs of people use that road to commute from their rural paradise into metro Atlanta for work. Satellite radio may be bringing people really great music this morning as they decide which road to take to work, but it does nothing about bringing you suggestions on which road will work this morning. The station in our county went the way of the drive-in a few years ago. So, here we sit. Maybe my iPod can tell me what road to take.

It is real easy for us "Keyboard Quarterbacks" to sit here and talk up a dream about radio that really does something. However the people on the playing field trying to make radio stations with gross sales of $80,000 to $240,000 per year are probably not taking time out to read this thread this morning, and if they did, their blood might be boiling. Their thoughts might be: "If you're so smart, come out here and show me how to do all those local voices and news coverage and meaningful public service when you hardly have the cash to pay this month's power bill.

I believe many of them could make a modes start toward localism if they thought that was the way radio should go. We have a current generation of owners, managers and programmers who have grown up singing and preaching the gospel: "Radio is music. Radio is music. Radio is music."

When radio stations die and become today's drive-in theaters, do they have a funeral, and do they sing: "Radio is music. Radio is music......."

 

[jackandcoke]

I tried to post this the other day but screwed it up (it all came out in blue). Let me try again...


Terrestrial radio is going to be around for a long time--very likely well beyond the lifetime of anyone on this board. So any comparison to drive-in theatres is way off the mark.

On the other hand, a comparison of conventional radio to conventional movie theatres isn't so far fetched. That industry has changed significantly in the past several decades--several times--and, as DVD, OnDemand, and internet video continue to develop, movie theatres will need to continuously adjust, as well.

Radio listening is, indeed, being chipped-away at (sorry if that's not grammatically correct) by numerous parallel audio sources. Arbitron tracks it nationally on the arbitron.com website. Cume rating--the percentage of the population using radio--has dropped over the past decade. And time spent listening (TSL) has also dropped.

But in 8-and-a-half years (Fall 1998 to Spring 2007), overall cume rating has only dropped from 95 percent of the population to 93 percent. And overall TSL has only dropped from 21 hours a week to 19 hours a week.

Check it out for yourself. Go to arbitron.com and look for American Radio Listening Trends (or something like that) and then go to Persons Using Radio.

The death of radio has been greatly exaggerated!

 

[gr8oldies]

I'd venture to say that the playlists on each individual XM or Sirius channel aren't into the thousands either...from the times I've listened the networks that play music Im familiar with are quite recognizable. It is a myth perpetrated on this board over and over again and igt goes something like .."no one wants to hear familiar songs, they only want to hear obscure and unknow music therefore the way to win is to play all unfamiliar music, all the time." Unfortunately, that's not correct and even if it was, everyone would have their favorite "unfamilar" songs and there would have to be a "Top 500 songs no one has ever heard of" playlist. Does the average iPod have 10,000 songs? Doubtful (I know on this board there may be exceptions).

 

[redneckriviera]

I'd venture to say that the playlists on each individual XM or Sirius channel aren't into the thousands either...from the times I've listened the networks that play music Im familiar with are quite recognizable. It is a myth perpetrated on this board over and over again and igt goes something like .."no one wants to hear familiar songs, they only want to hear obscure and unknow music therefore the way to win is to play all unfamiliar music, all the time." Unfortunately, that's not correct and even if it was, everyone would have their favorite "unfamilar" songs and there would have to be a "Top 500 songs no one has ever heard of" playlist. Does the average iPod have 10,000 songs? Doubtful (I know on this board there may be exceptions).

Do a Mediabase analysis on "Jack" ("We Play Anything") stations and you'll find a universe of about 1500 songs. But 500 of them only get played once a year ("Lunars")... and another 500 only get played two or three times a year. The core 500 songs constitute the real format--because whatever the target group may be, there are only a few hundred songs they really want to hear.

So, no, satellite-delivered radio "stations" don't do it any differently. The way XM & Sirius deliver "variety" is by providing a sh*tload of radio stations, not by delivering "a" station with tremendous variety.

And getting back to the topic of this thread, satellite radio--by itself--does not represent a serious threat to terrestrial radio. Last time I looked, XM/Sirius combined were up to about 5 percent penetration after nearly a decade of development... compared to terrestrial radio's 93 percent. Anyone losing sleep over that needs to have their head examined.

 

[MickJ]

And getting back to the topic of this thread, satellite radio--by itself--does not represent a serious threat to terrestrial radio. Last time I looked, XM/Sirius combined were up to about 5 percent penetration after nearly a decade of development... compared to terrestrial radio's 93 percent. Anyone losing sleep over that needs to have their head examined.

Terra radio is in one leaky boat. Satellite radio is in another. They are both encumbered by too much government regulation and radio's old-schoolers think that more regulation is just what the doctor ordered.

Terra radio isn't going away anytime soon just as printed newspapers aren't going away any time soon. That doesn't mean that all is well.

 

[bub]

And to come in on the shirt tails of this post, radio, like baseball, has good players and not so talented players.

The trick to getting, and keeping an audience is having the guts to know, keep, and direct talent in a positive direction. The best managers in baseball are those that see talent, and then can focus them to the best efforts of the team as a whole.

Being honest with ones self means that if you're not good, it's not everyone else's fault. What it does mean is that the jock has to make that decision to learn the right way to be a good player on the team, or admit that they would be better in some other type of employment.

And from a manager's standpoint, it means that you don't be mean or condescending. You have to have the guts to lead in a positive way, and give direction to those challenged in the game. And if you're not up to the task, either find a middle manager who can, or perhaps go into another business.

And like baseball, when you do lose, it's time to start analyzing where the team's head is at. Most of the time losers (if they can be honest with themselves) discover that the loss is because everyone's ego is pulling themselves in different directions. Having a team mentality can do wonders for focusing on the prize.

I'll hitchhike on this by saying that a baseball team is only as good as their FARM SYSTEM -which is severely lacking in today's radio environment. There's very few ma-and-pa stations (at least in my neck of the woods) around to give newbies a chance to get their chops and develop their craft.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

a baseball team is only as good as their FARM SYSTEM -which is severely lacking in today's radio environment. There's very few ma-and-pa stations (at least in my neck of the woods) around to give newbies a chance to get their chops and develop their craft.

Bub makes a valid observation.

I have made the point here or in one of the other similar threads, that successful mom-and-pop operation today requires that there be a very different "paradigm" in the small station. (My example is that little cars today are not just scaled down big sedans, they mechanically work quite differently!)

So the question is: In today's mom-and-pop small station, what kind of work experience does one get that offers preparation for life in "the major leagues"? What skill set is needed to be the entry level person at mom-and-pop, and do you learn anything that is useful as you move through the farm team?

I don't know. Maybe the progression up the food chain is as valid today as it ever was.... we just don't have as many entry points today.

 

[ruger22com]

There is only one thing that can be done to save radio in the long haul....and that thing will never...ever...ever happen. And that is have the FCC come out and say "well guys, we realize we kinda screwed things up several years ago...so we are going back to the old system, where no one company can own more than 7 AM stations and 7 FM stations (and 7 tv stations), and you can only own 1 am & 1 fm in any single market. oh yeah...and the big cluster companies have...oh...say...three years to sell off the properties then must to meet this limit."

God, it would be fun to watch cumulas and the others freak out and return to the rules from 20 years ago. They would be GIVING stations away for zip, especially in the real small markets.

Then real COMPETITION for ratings and revenue would return (along with the jobs and financial rewards). Once again we would have a small market training ground for the talent in the bigger markets and the industry would once again thrive!

Of course this would need the order from the FCC...and since the commisioners are so tied up in big money politics....it ain't gonna happen. (that is why the rules were eliminated in the first place.....errrr...excuse me...."deregulated")

Sure would be fun to watch though!

 

[gr8oldies]

By the time the court challenges are done, we'd all be too old to care. Unless the gov was willing to buy all of these stations for fair market value and resell them, it could never happen. Then, even if this scenario happened, who is going to interest Progressive Insurance, Wells Fargo Mortgage, and lord klnows whatever non-radio companies to buy 7 stations in 7 different markets, building 7 sets of studios, hiring 7 staffs, etc. to essentially be tax write-offs (like the good old days). Even if this scenario took place, the internet is still there, iPods are still there, a million different distractions for ears and ad dollars that disn't exist in 1972, and we might well have spot rates at $3, not budgets that will allow for live jocks to do "four and out the door". Just a reality check.

 

[davideduardo]

Do a Mediabase analysis on "Jack" ("We Play Anything") stations and you'll find a universe of about 1500 songs. But 500 of them only get played once a year ("Lunars")... and another 500 only get played two or three times a year. The core 500 songs constitute the real format--because whatever the target group may be, there are only a few hundred songs they really want to hear.

There is no core of 500 songs on Jack. Using KCBS as an example, I found that the weekly average is between 870 and 950 different songs, and over any two week period, there are around 1200. Going out to 12 weeks does not increase the count, so the assumption is that at least one category spins slower than a 7 day turn, but faster than a 14 day turn.

There are no lunar rotations (as much as this gets talked about, I have never seen a station with a 28 day turn category.... I have a library of about 1300 for our adult hits stations,, and 90% turns in 7 days or under, with just a few songs that turn just a bit slower.

 

[redneckriviera]

Do a Mediabase analysis on "Jack" ("We Play Anything") stations and you'll find a universe of about 1500 songs. But 500 of them only get played once a year ("Lunars")... and another 500 only get played two or three times a year. The core 500 songs constitute the real format--because whatever the target group may be, there are only a few hundred songs they really want to hear.

There is no core of 500 songs on Jack. Using KCBS as an example, I found that the weekly average is between 870 and 950 different songs, and over any two week period, there are around 1200. Going out to 12 weeks does not increase the count, so the assumption is that at least one category spins slower than a 7 day turn, but faster than a 14 day turn.

There are no lunar rotations (as much as this gets talked about, I have never seen a station with a 28 day turn category.... I have a library of about 1300 for our adult hits stations,, and 90% turns in 7 days or under, with just a few songs that turn just a bit slower.

David, don't be so sure the everybody has been doing it exactly the way you've been doing it. I'm looking at a Mediabase analysis of a large-market "Jack" (brand) station right now and there are about 500 tunes that played exactly once during the past year and another 500 that played exactly twice. Stunt? Maybe.

But you know as well as I do that the entire premise of "We Play Anything" relies on the gullibility of enough listeners to believe The Big Lie.

Then again, a slogan stating "We Play A Few More Tunes Than The Other Guys" doesn't have much sizzle, does it?

But The Big Lie is what eventually kills the format. Once these dullards figure out you're lying to them, they're gone.

 

[redneckriviera]

By the time the court challenges are done, we'd all be too old to care. Unless the gov was willing to buy all of these stations for fair market value and resell them, it could never happen. Then, even if this scenario happened, who is going to interest Progressive Insurance, Wells Fargo Mortgage, and lord klnows whatever non-radio companies to buy 7 stations in 7 different markets, building 7 sets of studios, hiring 7 staffs, etc. to essentially be tax write-offs (like the good old days). Even if this scenario took place, the internet is still there, iPods are still there, a million different distractions for ears and ad dollars that disn't exist in 1972, and we might well have spot rates at $3, not budgets that will allow for live jocks to do "four and out the door". Just a reality check.

I'll agree that we could all be dead by the time it happens, but there is a very real groundswell among the great unwashed against the oligopolies that have been created/encouraged by these past 30 years of deregulation in nearly every American industry and the pendulum is likely to swing back the other way. Is it easy breaking them up? No. Has it been done before? Yeah, it has.

Radio is hardly the most egregious. We've all witnessed the destruction of small-town retail waged by Wal-Mart, Lowe's, Best Buy & the like. The guy on the street understands this.

But will radio find buyers for a 1970-style one-to-a-market 7-7 "mom & pop" redistribution of properties? Damn right it will.

 

[davideduardo]

David, don't be so sure the everybody has been doing it exactly the way you've been doing it. I'm looking at a Mediabase analysis of a large-market "Jack" (brand) station right now and there are about 500 tunes that played exactly once during the past year and another 500 that played exactly twice. Stunt? Maybe.

I looked at several large market "True" Jack stations, not clones. The LA example of about 1200 or so songs that rotate within about a 10 day maximum turnover is what I found... and no songs that appear on a 12 month report that do not play regularly every ten days or less except for a couple that might be part of a topical drop in...

But you know as well as I do that the entire premise of "We Play Anything" relies on the gullibility of enough listeners to believe The Big Lie.

No, I don't know that. The KCBS example shows a very wide playlist, with lots of songs getting good, consistent rotations. Anyone who is not doing the format that way is removing one of its main strengths.

 

[amfmxm]

Do a Mediabase analysis on "Jack" ("We Play Anything") stations and you'll find a universe of about 1500 songs. But 500 of them only get played once a year ("Lunars")... and another 500 only get played two or three times a year. The core 500 songs constitute the real format--because whatever the target group may be, there are only a few hundred songs they really want to hear.

There is no core of 500 songs on Jack. Using KCBS as an example, I found that the weekly average is between 870 and 950 different songs, and over any two week period, there are around 1200. Going out to 12 weeks does not increase the count, so the assumption is that at least one category spins slower than a 7 day turn, but faster than a 14 day turn.

There are no lunar rotations (as much as this gets talked about, I have never seen a station with a 28 day turn category.... I have a library of about 1300 for our adult hits stations,, and 90% turns in 7 days or under, with just a few songs that turn just a bit slower.

Mr. G.,

I'll dive into this one in the spirit of trying to learn a thing or two from an Old Master. I've thought much the same as RNR that a universe of say, 1300 songs, isn't that much different from the universe of 400-500 found in a typical AC or the 700-800 played by a typical classic rocker--and that the average literate listener with 5th-grade math skills would determine within a month or three that Jack/Bob/Ben/Sam doesn't really play "anything" but rather a few more songs than every other radio station they've ever heard.

And that p*sses them off and they go away mad. Thus, we see an initial splash of interest in such stations followed quickly by waning interest... and a format switch by the end of Year Two.

No?

 

[radiorob2.0]

The Drive-In analogy to radio applies but there is this perspective; did you go to the Drive-In to watch the movie? You probably went with friends to have fun or with a date attempting to make some front page Drive-In news. It was everything about the Drive-In beyond the movie that made it popular. The same can be said about radio. Did you listen to somebody like John Records Landecker to hear Barry Manilow every 75 minutes? No, chances are you listened to hear what Landecker was going to do next.

The thing that missing in radio today is the very thing that saved it over fifty years ago, independent thought. It was the likes of Gordon McLendon, Todd Storz and others rewrote the playbook using, in some cases, the worst facilities and soundly beating the better facilities in ratings and revenue. The owners of the better signals were scratching their head wondering, “What happened?”

Radio today is, for the most part, run by gutless individuals more concerned about end of year bonuses. They will not deviate from the instruction manual because that means taking a risk. Creativity and independent thought is discouraged and seen as dissent. More value is seen in sales than in product itself which is why we have things like “Jack-FM”. The current lowlifes running the show have fooled some of the people. But many have found other alternatives because terrestrial radio offers, for the most part, nothing. “Jack FM” plays what it wants but my iPod plays what I want with no commercial inventory.

Dr Suess environmental tale “The Lorax” applies to the current state of radio. The Mays’, Dickey’s and others found the profit tree that is radio and are squeezing it for all its worth. After they squeeze it dry, they will walk away very rich and radio, for the most part, will be left to rot. The only exception will be the few stations run by broadcasters who actually serve the community, think for themselves and have the smarts to reinvent themselves and survive.

 

[radionut925]

Dr Suess environmental tale “The Lorax” applies to the current state of radio. The Mays’, Dickey’s and others found the profit tree that is radio and are squeezing it for all its worth. After they squeeze it dry, they will walk away very rich and radio, for the most part, will be left to rot. The only exception will be the few stations run by broadcasters who actually serve the community, think for themselves and have the smarts to reinvent themselves and survive.

Right on target! Very well said. As has been said so many times before, the stations that wish to stay relevant must make local programming and community service a priority. Obviously, most broadcasters can't do that as long as most radio stations are programmed from a computer or a studio hundreds or thousands of miles away.

 

[gr8oldies]

I could ask the next 100 people I walk by who owns the radio stations in my town and maybe two would be able to tell me, let alone be pissed that the people who own all the parking garages in town don't own two of them any more. I question there being a "groundswell". I'll address the issue of "everyone" turning their backs on Wal-Mart. The parking lots are full just about any time I'm there. No one I know pines for the days awhen all the stores closed by 5pm and you had to pay for parking. How much did all those small mom-and-pop retailers pay their employees again? Hmm..Wal mart even brought "big Pharma" to its knees and I can get prescriptions for four bucks.