Be prepared for a long answer:
Tibbs2 said:
Big A - let's look into this "dying" situation a bit more.
1.) Radio listenership - where is it today compared to five and ten years ago on TSL, revenues brought in and relative importance/connection to audience.
The drop in TSL began 23 years ago, when people began replacing radios with personal music devices. But it hasn't changed the fact that 239 million people, 94% of the public, listen to OTA radio. That number is up from last year.
Tibbs2 said:
2.) With the average listener that was heavily invested in radio at a younger age back in the 70s and 80s now being thrown away by ad buyers and thusly formats shifting to younger listeners, where will radio be in listenership growth or decline in the next five years and next ten years?
As I said, radio needs to adapt to the needs of younger audiences, because the boomers aren’t going to be around forever. It has nothing to do with ad buyers, it has to do with life expectancy. In ten years, the people who grew up with radio will be over 70 years old. That means a guaranteed decline in audience due to death.
Tibbs2 said:
3.) As radio attempts to capture an audience that is younger and younger each year, those exact listeners have never been as connected to radio as old skewing listeners. The younger listener expects medias to be about "them." They can create their own music stations online etc., but there still has to be a source that allows music to be discovered, blossom, sweep the nation and hit the charts. Is radio that top choice for new music? Will it be in the future?
Ever since the Walkman and MTV were introduced over 30 years ago, radio has had to share its audience with other devices and media. The monopoly radio enjoyed in the 60s and early 70s has been over for a long time. That’s why TSL is down. So radio has had 30 years to learn how to be one of several ways the audience hears music. But radio is more than music. Radio is news, talk, and sports. Those formats are on the increase now, and it’s likely as younger listeners use other devices for music, they will still be drawn to radio for news, talk, and sports. Radio isn’t in the music business. Radio companies don’t make money when people buy music. In fact, radio PAYS money to play music, and it’s likely that record labels will demand MORE money for that privilege. So how listeners discover new music really isn’t radio’s job. As long as it attracts an audience, there is some synergy. But music has become more diversified and more individualized, making it impossible for radio stations to satisfy individual music tastes. That’s why you’re seeing more radio stations devote less time and money to their music stations, and more to the news, talk, and sports stations.
Tibbs2 said:
My concern is that all this cost cutting and mediocrity is what is eventually going to hang radio from both ends of the radio demographics and leave it with a painfully thin audience base to attempt to entertain and keep being loyal.
You don’t see radio budgets, so you don’t know this, but what appears to be cost cutting to you is really cost shifting. Ad rates haven’t increased in over five years, due to increased competition, but costs have increased. That means salary, benefits, rent, utilities, and local taxes have all gone up. In addition, radio companies have invested in online content, because digital is the future, and radio wants to be there. So that means shifting money from on-air. Nobody wants to throw out the baby with the bathwater, so everyone is trying to keep some of the elements the older audiences want. But the money has to come from somewhere. For now, digital costs more than it makes.
Tibbs2 said:
And also, will moves like the WKDF in Nashville really matter in the scheme of listenership, etc? (maybe staying on topic...like that ever happens.)
The WKDF situation is unique in that it is co-owned by Cumulus with another country station: WSM-FM. Having two country stations in one market gives it a larger share, so that’s good. But they have the cost of running two stations without twice the income. So perhaps the strategy is to begin to shift the country audience away from WKDF to WSM-FM, which has the better signal and country heritage. If the WKDF listeners dislike having a part-time afternoon DJ, all they have to do is listen to WSM-FM. Problem solved. If they don’t like local DJs, they can listen to the syndicated Big D & Bubba at WSIX. Problem solved. It’s all about providing choices. As long as radio does that, the audience will take care of itself.