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Is this the Future of Radio?

Happy Thanksgiving, Goat Rodeo Cowboy.

This discussion is really great! Thanks. Agree on the great minds comment, Big A. As much as I like to cut up on here and not take it totally serious, what we are talking about is an amazing challenge that promises to define radio for the next decade.
 
Radio has always evolved as society changed. There has always been technology changes and new competition. Radio history is interesting, at least to me anyway, in that when the environment got tough there were those who saw radio demise and/orwho were happy with the status quo. There were others who saw a new beginning and who thought of very creative ways to attract and engage listeners in that changed environment. For a long time, it was always about ideas and there was no point to an age litmus test.

There was a time a radio star was a singer, a comic, an actor, a playwright, an “M.C.” Television came along and radio had to compete differently. There were those who decided to stay the course. Some decided to play “records.” Some saw rock ‘n roll as some kind of threat. Pat Boone covered a lot of really great music/artists because skin color trumped talent. Some saw lots of potential in hiring a radically different “announcer” and Alan Freed and others were born.

One of my major beefs with large corporate ownership and their strong influence in the industry is in the arena of ideas. IMO fewer major decision makers = greater chance of getting it wrong. Since I’m bringing up history to make some points, consider this. When four lads from Liverpool were getting noticed across the pond, there were a number of very influential PDs of all ages who didn’t think the Beatles had what it took to be a success in the US. They got it very wrong. Still, imagine if they held a position such as format coordinator and they oversaw 500 stations across the country. Indeed, decisions held by the very few can have dire consequences. The Beatles were a financial bonanza for radio.

I’m not a typical radio listener. Where I’m the same as anyone else is I will listen to what “I” like. A challenge for radio is it not only competes with technology du jour and stations within the local market, but it competes on a national stage too. To get noticed, to grow an audience and to grow revenue from new platforms as well, I believe the product has to be good and I mean really good. This is healthy for radio.

I estimate that 98% of my radio listening involves listening to other markets outside of Jacksonville. In my view streaming and the like gives me all kinds of choices that goes way beyond the very narrow and limited local formats. If this were the past, my radio would be off most times but instead I do listen, hear commercials and I feel very involved even being hundreds or thousands of miles away. Certainly, this has to be a growing trend and I believe it promises a competitive future for radio.

We listeners do have lots of choices. In the mornings I mainly listen to WFEZ (Miami) and Susan Wise. It’s one of those perfect matches. When the mood strikes, I kick it up a few notches and listen to Rick Stacy and the incredibly great programming of WOCL (Orlando). Two ends of the spectrum (formats we don’t have locally)and actually two cases that show an Easy AC and a hybrid oldies/classic hits format can be very today, engage their listeners effectively with the right talent and overall sound so damn good. I give a lot of credit to those who break stereotype and who give listeners something else different from all the rest and then derive lots of success as a result.

Whether you are looking at history or if you are looking at the current environment, radio succeeds when bold, fresh new ideas follow a different course than whatever the status quo says works. There was a time the decision-makers could speak up and bring to the table solutions. Today, there is limited voice, especially if that voice is in a big company at the local level. An idea can become a great one but if we discount that idea because the person achieved a certain birthday milestone, I don’t believe it is healthy for the business and a lot can be learned from history. “Baggage” as it applies to age can be very divisive. All I ask is please don’t broad brush. Ideas, good or bad, should be judged accordingly and a seasoned radio pro’s contributions should not be automatically discounted.
 
JohnJax said:
They got it very wrong. Still, imagine if they held a position such as format coordinator and they oversaw 500 stations across the country. Indeed, decisions held by the very few can have dire consequences. The Beatles were a financial bonanza for radio.

Yep...of course consider that pop radio at the time was in its infancy, and was being run by people your parent's age. The thing about Elvis and The Beatles is they were youth crazes, and the people making the radio decisions weren't in the target demo. It took TV people to recognize the potential. That still happens today. And a lot of talk in the music business is about getting around the "gatekeepers." That's why the record labels and musicians love the internet, Pandora, Spotify, American Idol, Sirius, and all the other alternatives. And that's why your concern about a format co-ordinator is unfounded. There are alternative ways to get the music to the public. Radio then has a choice to either follow, or lose out on the financial bonanza.
 
JohnJax said:
Pat Boone covered a lot of really great music/artists because skin color trumped talent.

Got to disagree with you on this statement as Pat Boone most certainly did have talent and for a time was the chart topper in pop music. Both he and Elvis began their careers by covering previously recorded "race music" - mostly Black R&B with a up-tempo beat - and both had an extraordinary wide delivery that could cover early rock, ballads, gospel and holiday music. Elvis obviously was the "bad" pop star and Boone the "good" one based upon their music selections, stage performances and dress. Boone was much more of a traditional vocalist and Elvis obviously wasn't and that is where their music diverged for awhile. Except for their public persona's they could have doubled for each other in the music.
 
Speaking of Elvis, there was a time he left the building. Over the past several months, the King has not only found his way back on the leading classic hits stations across the country but we are seeing the return of his very early hits, even if rotated on a limited basis. Decisions like this are made all the time. I'd like to talk about decisions and the future of radio.

Those who support the radio status quo will frequently point to research, PPM data etc. to validate why radio operates as it does and how/why it brings success. For some time, I have believed the industry overall has been moving away from being really listener-centric in favor of the influential few. This can result in lost opportunities. Those in key management positions play a very critical role and they don’t always get it right. A healthy and bright future depends on the influence of the highly-skilled. A strong and moral character of key people is rarely mentioned. I believe radio needs more of them to make the tough decisions and to build a really superior product.

During the last election cycle, something very important came to light. As I watched or read the various pundits make predictions based on polling data, each of them made a very convincing case for their candidate. Some of the very brightest and successful analysts got it very wrong. I could not help but make connections to radio.

Those in key radio positions- probably consultants too - analyze and interpret data, look at trends and predict outcomes and make recommendations. The political analysts were vested in a particular candidate. They probably weighted data that supported the outcome they wanted and discounted things that showed an outcome they did not want. I don’t believe it is unrealistic to think some in radio, as in the political world, bring their own biases to the table. The recommendations they make may satisfy some metric goals but it may do little to make the market stronger over time. I see risk in that approach. Unfortunately, PPM does not measure listener dissastifaction or being disenfranchized.

For a long time, I have talked of the pay-for-performance and bonus compensation structure for those in the MM,GM and/or OM roles. The system appears broken to me because these people can interpret data and make recommendations that ultimately benefits them as priority number one. We should not be naive. This sort of thing happens a lot.

Luckily for radio, there are some very devoted and talented people who chart a different course to arrive at success. A lot depends on the core values of that company. A lot also has to do with the ease in which major decisions are made. Radio works especially well when it strikes when the iron is hot. I’ve witnessed too many sign-offs and too many layers of management. When things don’t work out, we shouldn’t be surprised at the result.

I see a future that is bright as long as more of the right people are in place. Listeners will have even more options and choices. They will respond to a great product as they have always. I have a lot of issues with the radio status quo. For reasons I will probably never understand, my view is in the minority.
 
JohnJax said:
For a long time, I have talked of the pay-for-performance and bonus compensation structure for those in the MM,GM and/or OM roles. The system appears broken to me because these people can interpret data and make recommendations that ultimately benefits them as priority number one. We should not be naive. This sort of thing happens a lot.

I won't try to speak to OM compensation (though I'm guessing that you're referring to ratings-based compensation), but market managers and general managers are usually compensated on profitability, revenue growth and/or formulas tied to those items. And except for owner-operators (ordinarily smaller-market operations), the MM/GM is usually answering to someone else. Wherever the buck really stops you'll find the ultimate decision-maker.

Commercial radio is a business. At its simplest level it boils down to bringing in more money than you spend. And that keeps getting tougher. Not because radio's audience--what we think of as "cume"--is significantly smaller (it's not), But we definitely share these folks--more than 90 percent of humanity--with many more signals and gobs of other/new media. Worse yet, the MM/GM needs to generate greater profit on a smaller pool of ad revenue, not just compared to pre-recession conditions, but also in terms of 2012 dollars versus, say, 1990 dollars--much less 1980 dollars.

As one of those MM/GM-types, I'll testify that making decisions benefitting myself "as priority number one" rarely, if ever, crosses my mind. I do what I do because I've always loved the radio business, and whatever kind of living I've made just came along with the responsibility I've been willing to shoulder.

John, I don't want to pick on you--I always enjoy your analysis. At the same time, I'll toss in my two cents to the extent that we're all being squeezed. Not your fault, nor mine... or Clear Channel's or the president's. Most of it is a fairly natural evolution of business cycles.
 
It was certainly interesting to read the last two posts by JohnJax and amfmxm. Radio has usually done a good job adapting to the times, and my hope is that those in charge don't lose sight of some of the basics, keeping the unique "personality" and "intimacy" of this medium in mind, and intact, while they tackle the business and revenue challenges today. Radio still plays a large role in our society, and sometimes a critical role, as witnessed again, by the recent Hurricane Sandy events. ;)
 
JohnJax said:
I see a future that is bright as long as more of the right people are in place.

That's certainly the deal with anything. Even lawyers! Not all of them are scum. :)

But the thing about radio is there is no way to ensure only the "right people" become owners, managers, even air personalities. It's all left to chance. Then you throw it into the marketplace and see who wins.
 
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