I’m afraid your pessimism is justified. But that doesn’t mean that Entercom will necessarily make more money by dropping classical. Look at what happened in Philadelphia after Greater Media’s September, 1997 flip of WFLN, which had been classical for 48 ½ years, since it first signed on in March, 1949.
WFLN had become the fourth station in Greater Media’s Philadelphia cluster a few months earlier. At the time of the flip to WXXM (Modern Adult “Max 95.7,” a mix of Hot AC and Alternative, or “Modern,” Rock), the GM of the cluster told the Philadelphia Inquirer that the station couldn’t keep billing only $4.5- $5 million a year, as it had been doing in the 1990’s. He said it would have to be billing $13 million within three years in order to justify the company’s $41.8 million investment.
Well, it never happened. The first three non-classical formats – Modern Adult “Max 95.7” (a blend of Hot AC and Alternative, or “Modern,” Rock); Urban Oldies “Jammin’ Gold” (the name “Jammin’ Oldies” had been copyrighted by Chancellor, which was later briefly called AMFM Inc before being absorbed by Clear Channel) and “Mix 95.7” (see
http://members.aol.com/philaradio/curr957.html.) -- were all failures. (See also
http://www.formatchange.com/wfln-becomes-modern-ac-max-957 .)
In the mid-1990’s, WFLN had had a respectable 12+ share. Secret Communications hoped to increase that share by 25 percent, but wound DECREASING it by 25 percent instead. With “Max 95.7” the 12+ lost one-third of WFLN’s final classical share, though with very heavy advertising and promotion, they almost recovered that 12+ level for one book! (I’d like to give you the actual numbers, but I’ve been edited for that before under Radio-Info’s T.O.S. – but you can find those numbers in the links above.)
According to Duncan’s American Radio (R.I.P.; Duncan’s subscriber base dwindled to the point of unprofitability after about 2000, another baleful consequence of the industry consolidation resulting from the 1996 Telecom Act!), the station never billed more than $4.5 million in any year under any of those three formats -- except for 2000, when it billed $8.5 million. By Winter 2000, its 12+ share -- and its all-important 25-54 -- were in freefall, but the station was coasting on its excellent Summer and Fall books (like all Urban Oldies stations, it had had a very brief, flavor-of the-month, flash-in the-pan success, briefly besting WFLN’s best book, before it began dropping like a stone)
In l995, the station flipped to the Jack/Bob/Doug/Tom, Dick and Harry-FM “Adult Hits” format as WBEN, “Ben-FM” (beating CBS to the punch; do you see a pattern here?), and its 12+ shares have been nearly as good as WFLN’s at its mid-1990’s peak -- much better than those of Mix, Max and for the most part Jammin’ (though not nearly as good as "Jammin’" at its nova-like ratings peak in the Summer of 1999). As for billings, I don’t know, since Duncan’s is no longer available, but I would estimate its 2006 revenue as about $8-to-9 million -- still far short of Greater Media’s stated goal.
So seeing Entercom’s new format flop is probably the best you can hope for.
As for stopping the flip, I don’t think you can. But you may be able to wreak your revenge, if you’re so inclined. Refer to my previous post (Reply # 29,
http://www.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,60908.20.html) about Entercom Chairman Joe Field’s record on classical radio. If Entercom drops classical in S.F. despite good ratings, you could always “out” him as a hypocrite to his friends at the Philadelphia Orchestra and the Curtis Institute – with a copy to the Philadelphia Inquirer!