KFWB - More KNX bashing?

[davideduardo]

The biggest issue here is that the market is close to 75% ethnic and immigrant, groups that use news less or not at all.

75% of LA is ethnic or immigrant? I'd say 100% is ethnic.

Since we are dealing with Arbitron, we go by the terms they apply, Hispanic, Black and Other.

LA is 42% Hispanic, 12% Asian (not a stratification variable in Arbitron) and 8% Black. In addition we have roughly 10% in the metro that does not get broken out that consist of mostly 1st generation immigrants that don't fit in the listed categories and are predominanly of the former USSR, as well as Armenians, Persians and Arabs.

For format evaluation, you have to look at how a format would index against each group. AAA indexes horribly against Hispanics and Blacks, for example, and logic tells you it will do likewise against Asians and other first generation immigrants, so the "nut" for AAA has to come out of the 25% that is not in those groups. Slim pickings.

 

[LA_Guy]

If CBS Had Half a Brain....

If CBS had 1/2 of a brain, they'd change one of these stations to Spanish all news, but don't worry they have LESS then half a brain, so it isn't gonna happen!

 

[davideduardo]

Re: If CBS Had Half a Brain....

If CBS had 1/2 of a brain, they'd change one of these stations to Spanish all news, but don't worry they have LESS then half a brain, so it isn't gonna happen!

To do that, the format would have to be viable. It is not. All news is very new to Mexico, and does exceedingly poorly, and is only available in Mexico City. There is no tradition or habit of listening to newsradio among the Mexican heritage audience.

Liberman tried it in the late 90's on KHR under the Radio Noticias 930 name, and it never even touched a 1 share, plus being very expensive to run.

CBS is very smart to keep both Spanish and both billing around $40 million each.

 

[Shoot From Hip]

CBS is very smart to keep both Spanish and both billing around $40 million each.

I suspect you meant to say "English" instead of Spanish. And your billing numbers are about 25% over-inflated. Times have changed.

 

[davideduardo]

CBS is very smart to keep both Spanish and both billing around $40 million each.

I suspect you meant to say "English" instead of Spanish. And your billing numbers are about 25% over-inflated. Times have changed.

Yeah, I meant English.

And both stations bill in the $35 to $40 million range. Together, in the last full year, 2006, they did about $72 million. As part of a cluster, we will never know the exact amounts, but that is fairly close; like all AMs and older demo stations, they will be hurt in 2007 due to the housing and mortgage cratering and the 30% or so decline in automotive... but they should keep their relative positions in the market, though; both are top 10 billers.

 

[Shoot From Hip]

And both stations bill in the $35 to $40 million range.

As I said, times have changed. Currently neither is a top ten biller. And when you remove something like $8m in Dodger billing from KFWB, they will change more next year.

 

[davideduardo]

And both stations bill in the $35 to $40 million range.

As I said, times have changed. Currently neither is a top ten biller. And when you remove something like $8m in Dodger billing from KFWB, they will change more next year.

Neither you nor I know what the Dodger change will mean: it may increase the billing once that sea anchor is cut loose.

 

[Shoot From Hip]

And both stations bill in the $35 to $40 million range.

As I said, times have changed. Currently neither is a top ten biller. And when you remove something like $8m in Dodger billing from KFWB, they will change more next year.

Neither you nor I know what the Dodger change will mean: it may increase the billing once that sea anchor is cut loose.

Feel free to speak for yourself.

 

[Hunter]

Neither you nor I know what the Dodger change will mean: it may increase the billing once that sea anchor is cut loose.

One thing is for certain. We are headed into a political year, so that should be good for both stations.

 

[davideduardo]

Neither you nor I know what the Dodger change will mean: it may increase the billing once that sea anchor is cut loose.

One thing is for certain. We are headed into a political year, so that should be good for both stations.

That is a good point. The political will definitely help 2008, although many indicators show that money will be spent in new media against swing voters to a greater extent than on terrestrial radio and even TV. It may make up for the shortfalls in the automotive and home-related categories, but we are probabloy going to see 2007 off on a total market basis from 2006 and 2008 about the same.

 

[gerald]

I really thought KNX would be in deep doo-doo as part of the subprime collapse, but they still have lots of refi ads running.

I do think Spanish all-news would be worth a try, given just how Hispanic LA is and becoming more so every day. For people who don't get a Spanish daily paper, or who don't have the reading skills to deal with one, it would be a simple way to get news from here AND from home, wherever that may be.