Re: Arbitron does not provide extraps or monthlies in trend reports
> >
> > The answers will be had in 6 to 9 months minimum. They may
>
> > be bad, or surprise us. But using January extraps in LA is
>
> > absurd.
>
> No, it isn't absurd. It is a reflection of reality of how
> Howard Stern listeners have abandoned KLSX in the morning in
> droves even more so than anticipated. Instant
> ratings/trend/extrap data is expected in this case as seen
> in the stories being written about Stern.
Extraps represent, at best, highly suspect data under the best of situations. But since January was the start of respondent level ethnic determination from the diary as well as the start of language weighting in a market that is 42% Hispanic and 65% Spanish dominant, all bets are off.
A January extrap is a matematical derivitive based on known months from a past survey and an unknwn one in the new survey. There is different weigting, and each month is not a balanced sample and has never been sold as that.
KLSX is off. Stern is gone. We knew intuitatively that the station would come down a lot, and that it would take a year or so to build Free FM... just like all new talkers in the past. So the January extraps are meaningless old news.
>
> The Stern-less KLSX situation isn't considered a "wobble",
> it's considered where KLSX is now. And that's in the dumps
> for mornings.
Based on one month of a "new format?" Again, everyone knew ther eould be a big drop. CBS knew it was putting on new talent in big markets, and there owuld be attrition and fallout. But they seem commited to the format, which is a good, not a bad, thing.
>
> The New York City press is all over the extraps. And the
> agencies have chimed in as well. I suggest you go and read
> them.
Fortunately, those who know better do not make decisions based on single-month extraps. As I said, this is about Stern and new media, and has nothing to do with the reality of radio and the diary metod measurement of it.
>
> Tell me that nonsense when it's a 10% drop, not 60-70%.
The data is not trustworthy. We knew, for the third time, that any Stern replacement would take time. I usually give personality morning shows a year or so. You are giving them 4 weeks. Bizaarre. Anything, both good and bad, can happen. But it will not play out for months and monts and months.
> CBS Radio just wrapped up doing call out research on all
> their new morning shows. So decisions are based on the first
> month.
We all do call out research on a regular... sometimes weekly... basis. So what? All they did by doing January or February research was get a benchmark of the starting point, and perhps pick up some perceptual issues worth working on.
> >
> > There is no report of "giving away spots" even from other
> > sellers in the market. So, there is no attribution for
> your
> > statement.
>
> Wrong. You also need to get an InsideRadio subscription.
I have been an Inside Radio subscriber and contributer since it began. Thanks for the sales pitch. I am sure Tom taylor appreciates it too.
> It's quite absurd to see you post this since it is not only
> known but been published by Inside Radio. Some of us do have
> close connections to KLSX buys,
Some of us have close connections to LA media, including sales. KLSX is being priced like a startup, and that is what they are.
> >
> > Arbitron does not do extraps. The only real data we have
> is
> > Nov-Dec-Jan. Arbitron does not issue extraps, so any
> extraps
> > are guesses based on missing-variable math, not real
> > numbers.
>
> The data is culled from Arbitron.
There is no monthly data for January anywhere in the latest trends, so you can not cull something that does not exist. An extrap is a math formula that tries to answer an unknown variable in an equation, but does not take into account that the data crosses two survey periods and is very volatile.
> And, just as you quote
> them so many times here, they have been right on the money
> time after time.
No, they are not anywhere near the real numbers in 80% of the time. I use multiple month extraps to identify issues, but would never, ever make a decision on a single extrap. We have other systems for listener level reporting, anyway.
>
> There are many special studies being done on post-Stern
> stations. This is exceptional. And, so far, they all look
> terrible for CBS radio.
What do you expect? It took KFI nearly a decade to beat KABC. It will take many books to rebuild KLSX. Nobody denies that. One month out is not when you do anything but establish a benchmark.
>
> Rocket lift-off? No one at CBS Radio expected the results to
> be as BAD as they now are.
Oh, I think they zero-based mornings. they had to, given the fact that they were bringing in talent with literally no raido experience.