LA Trend question

[KMRichards]

Re: Education time

> Thanks for the education, now let me give you one.

That's rich.

> Indie only dropped one tenth and that will be reflected in
> the next trend.

Here's what you still don't get. A difference of one-tenth of a point is still within the wobble range for a low-rated station like Indie.

In other words, Indie's ratings are flat. They have gotten every listener they are ever going to get. It still isn't going to be able to last with those numbers.

All we are doing is watching (and endlessly discussing, thanks to you bringing it up every chance you get) a station that has no room for growth slowly die. We "experts" have said it before, and it remains true: Entravision will not wait forever for results. And critical praise in the media isn't results, bottom-line dollars are. There is more money to be made running brokered ethnic programming, and sooner or later that is likely to get serious consideration by the corporate people.

> Experts, discuss. Then you could consider humbling yourself.

Wishful thinking, Freddy. If you're hanging around waiting for that to happen, you might as well not bother. Even Glenn won't side with you, thus expecting David, Flipper, or myself to "humble ourselves" before you is not a possibility.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Education time

> Thanks for the education, now let me give you one.
>
> I have confirmation that my hunch was indeed correct.
>
> The KDLE numbers were not included in Indie's recent trend
> numbers. What you were seeing were only the KDLD numbers.

Because KDLE has no reportable numbers, only combinable numbers.
>
> An ad agency friend told me that there was a paperwork
> mistake which caused the 2 signals to not be listed as a
> simulacast.

There is no paperwork mistake. In the data Arbitron sends to media there are no combos. KDLE did not make the book. It has no numbers by that standard.
>
> In reality, KDLE was down only one 10th and KDLD stayed the
> same.

Untrue. KDLE dropped "out of the book" and the media can onlly printe KDLD as the press releases by Arbitron do not show KDLE.
>
> Indie only dropped one tenth and that will be reflected in
> the next trend.

Wrong. It has dropped over half its numbers in the last 4 months. KDLE, alone, does not show. In co mbo, it adds 0.2 to the miserable, below a half-share-point showing of KDLD. Since KDLE is below cutoff on the MRS standards, it does not show but can still be comboed by subscribers.
>
> Experts, discuss. Then you could consider humbling yourself.

You are wrong, we are right. Move on. This is sickening. I have explained it three times already.

1. Stations must meet a minimum standard in share, diaries and cume to appaar in the book. Generally, in LA, a station at or just under a 0.3 will not show. KDLE did not have the minimum... even though they got some diary returns.
2. KDLD fell severely, again, to below a half share point.
3. Arbitron releases the individual station data to media, without combos. In that list, since KDLD did not make th eMRS, it was not inclueded.
4. Stations with Arbitrends software can make combos, but only if we include periods where KDLE did show. In this case, we can add a little over a tenth of a sharepoint to the combo. Big deal. It is dead.
5. There were no erros, paperwork, etc. KDLE did not make the book.

>

 

[Fab4Freddy]

Re: Education time

There are stations in this book showing at .3

KDLE has shown in previous books at that number.

That data you are sharing is just plain wrong.

You want me to show you my data?

Indie is down one tenth.

KDLD is flat. Well within the statistical wobble margin.


All in all, the only thing that matters is that Indie's sales are up and you will see when the next trend comes out that this trend has Indie dropping one tenth of a point from the last book.

Thats my last word, you can all go feel superior and be wrong.

 

[Fab4Freddy]

Re: Education time

>

> Here's what you still don't get. A difference of one-tenth
> of a point is still within the wobble range for a low-rated
> station like Indie.
>
> In other words, Indie's ratings are flat. They have gotten
> every listener they are ever going to get. It still isn't
> going to be able to last with those numbers.
>


Well, thank you for agreeing with me that Indie was flat and not down.

That's all from me.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Groundhog Day is back in theatres...

> There are stations in this book showing at .3

I said it is around a 0.3. Remeber, a 0.3 is a 0.25 to a 0.34. And the number of diaries in which a station is found is the first criteria. Whatever the reason, and none of us knows as we do not have respondent level data, KDLE DID NOT MAKE THE BOOK. You have to have minimum diaries, cume and share to make the book. Obviously, they failed on one or more of these.

Again, to meet minimum reporting standards, a station must have a certain share, a certain cume and appear in a certain number of diaries. Obviously, KDLE failed at least one of these tests, and does not appear.

However, full simulcast rules do apply. While the individual station does not get printed in the trends, whatever residual share it has gets combined in Arbitrends and Maximiser when one builds a combo of the two simulcasters... thus the Indie combo will be bigger by a bit than KDLD. Only subscribers have the software to do combos, so R&R can not show this.
>
> KDLE has shown in previous books at that number.

See above and the MRS sescription at www.arbtron;.com. They did not make the book. Period.
>
> That data you are sharing is just plain wrong.

I am subscribed to Arbitron. Neither you nor R&R is. KDLE did not make the book.
>
> You want me to show you my data?

You do not have any. You are not a subscriber. You can not have the raw data.
>
> Indie is down one tenth.

Indie is below a half-share as KDLE did not show.
>
> KDLD is flat. Well within the statistical wobble margin.

KDLD is off, also. The two had over a 1 share at one point earlier in the year, and are at half that now, approximately. They have lost half the audience, and that is more than wobble. It is over.
>
> All in all, the only thing that matters is that Indie's
> sales are up and you will see when the next trend comes out
> that this trend has Indie dropping one tenth of a point from
> the last book.

I have no crystal ball, so I do not predict ratings.

I do know that with these numbers, sales will dry up. The format will robably be gone, if not the whole station, by 2006.
>
> Thats my last word, you can all go feel superior and be
> wrong.

For someone who has no access to the data, you are very pretentious.

 

[Fab4Freddy]

Re: Education time

The data I have cannot be posted here. Where would you like me to email it?

 

[davideduardo]

Re: No way.

> The data I have cannot be posted here. Where would you like
> me to email it?

I already have the Arbitron data. There is no other data. KDLE did not show.

KDLE did not meet MRS. KDLD is falling like a rock. Together, they have lost nearly half the audience the peaked at some time ago.

There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.There is no other data.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Education time

> >
>
> > Here's what you still don't get. A difference of
> one-tenth
> > of a point is still within the wobble range for a
> low-rated
> > station like Indie.
> >
> > In other words, Indie's ratings are flat. They have
> gotten
> > every listener they are ever going to get. It still isn't
>
> > going to be able to last with those numbers.
> >
>
>
> Well, thank you for agreeing with me that Indie was flat and
> not down.
>
> That's all from me.

Actually, KDLE did not meet MRS (See below) and had -- in all fields for the July trend.

Indie as a combo is down. KDLE is so far down it disappeared and DLD is down from its peaks.


MRS criteria for single stations and simulcasts...
Radio Market Report MRS

To qualify to be listed in a Radio Market Report (RMR), Client CD (which is sent to third-party processors), or Arbitrends, a non-simulcast station must meet all three of the following criteria (Persons 12+, Monday-Sunday, 6AM-Midnight):

Listening in 10 Metro Diaries, and
.495 Metro Cume Rating, and
.05 Metro Average Quarter Hour (AQH) Rating
Note:
1) Non-commercial stations are not eligible to be listed in the RMR, Client CD, or Arbitrends.
2) The only stations that are listed on the Station Information pages of the RMR are those that meet MRS for the report.


Simulcasting MRS


Stations that simulcast at least 91% (Monday-Sunday, 6AM-Midnight) for 100% of the survey, will qualify for the RMR, if both stations together meet the above MRS (provided that each station received listening in at least one metro diary).


Note:

1) Stations that simulcast at least 10% (Monday-Sunday, 6AM-Midnight) will receive a total line -- in addition to individual station estimates -- in the Client CD (but not in the RMR, Arbitrends, or Maximi$er) for each daypart that is entirely simulcast for 100% of the survey.*

* At present, simultaneous breaks for separate commercials are not treated as breaks from simulcasting under these guidelines.

2) Three-way (four-way, etc) simulcasts cannot be reflected (at present). Only two-station simulcast partnerships can presently be reflected.

3) Simulcast percentages are based on the percentage of 6AM-Midnight Quarter Hours that are completely simulcast

>
<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by David Eduardo on 08/25/05 07:03 PM.</FONT></P>

 

[Fab4Freddy]

Re: Education time

Thanks for the info,

Perhaps I'm reading this wrong but it seems that a simulacast of 100% should appear together unless both stations combined fell below the threshold.
Do you think it's likely that KDLE did not appear in one single diary?

This goes to my claim that KDLE is not listed for reasons other than MRS, such as the paperwork error that my friend was cited by Indie sales. He says
KDLE only fell one 10th and that they may do a "re-issue". What does that mean?




> Simulcasting MRS
>
>
> Stations that simulcast at least 91% (Monday-Sunday,
> 6AM-Midnight) for 100% of the survey, will qualify for the
> RMR, if both stations together meet the above MRS (provided
> that each station received listening in at least one metro
> diary).

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Education time

> Thanks for the info,
>
> Perhaps I'm reading this wrong but it seems that a
> simulacast of 100% should appear together unless both
> stations combined fell below the threshold.

That is not teh way Arbitron issues the data. There are many things far more important they should do, but do not do.

> Do you think it's likely that KDLE did not appear in one
> single diary?

They need above 10 plus minimum share and cume. They did not make it, whatever the reason.
>
> This goes to my claim that KDLE is not listed for reasons
> other than MRS, such as the paperwork error that my friend
> was cited by Indie sales.

There is no paperwork. All tabulations are computerized.

> He says
> KDLE only fell one 10th and that they may do a "re-issue".
> What does that mean?

It means they reissue the data to correct an error. In the last 15 years, only one trend has been reissued, and it was due to a mistake on call letters ofr a frequency swap in SF... I was the one responsible. I doubt LA will be reissued.

 

[Fab4Freddy]

Re: Education time

So what do you say if I turn out being right, and they do re-issue the trend and Indie has indeed only dropped a tenth of a point?

Would you be less likely to treat my every post as if I'm a crazed lunitic who has no idea what he's talking about.

Would you or KM ever be willing to admit that you are sometimes wrong?


>
> It means they reissue the data to correct an error. In the
> last 15 years, only one trend has been reissued, and it was
> due to a mistake on call letters ofr a frequency swap in
> SF... I was the one responsible. I doubt LA will be
> reissued.
>