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Last day of Spring Book: Predictions?

M

mountaineer

Guest
Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after the Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+ shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear yours!

WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations)
WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in Bellefonte)
WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta hurt)
WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch Quick... yet)
WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the book)
WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's about time)
WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)

Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love 107.9!
 
> Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after the
> Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> yours!
>
> WFGY 11.0 (SOS) y
> WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)y
> WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations) 5.5
>
> WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
> Bellefonte)
> WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta
> hurt)
> WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> Quick... yet)
> WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em) 4.9
> WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> book)
> WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> about time)
> WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
>
> Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> 107.9!
> most I agree with...oldies listeners are loyal however wowy and the bus cross over music wise.................give wowy a bit more and they will grow.
the thing I think that is the discussion here is that I hear a lot of folks saying too many freq changes this a 'throw away' book.......they aren't throw aways to the agencies etc...........we used to get monthly sweeps in Miami and the PD always said the numbers are the numbers are the numbers.....no matter what happens.........i wish all in the market especially air talent a great book....and may your ratings bonus kick in.....oh yeah forgot its state college
 
> WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
> WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
> WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations)
>
> WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
> Bellefonte)
> WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta
> hurt)
> WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> Quick... yet)
> WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> book)
> WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> about time)
> WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
>
> Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> 107.9!
>
Froggy and 3-W Snooze as we used to lovingly call them...I agree with...you are most likely dead on there.
WJHT...who knows??? that one could go any way at all...could stay the same...could go up...could fall...the loyal Hot 107.9 fans are still pretty jacked...the old Beaver Fans may or may not appreciate the newly added Urban Stuff to the mix. I will not make a prediction on that one at all.

WGMR...well for selfish reasons I hope we trend upward and I think we will.

Lite 94.5 I think will tumble...the mornings may be the killer here.
I think you underestimate WOWY and overestimate the Buzz...their Big Dumb Fun is more like Big Dumb Static all over town. Cannot make an impact till they get a city grade signal...

Let's hold our breath and see how it all pans out.

Hitman
 
San Francisco, Pittsburgh, L.A. and even Altoona and Johnstown - it's an agency's job to find fault with the numbers. Trust me if a station does well this book, they'll scream FOUL and it you're in the shitter, they'll agree with that one (funny how that works). When Dame had HOT #1 12+, they still had an average spot rate of between 8-13 bucks because the agencies used averaging to discount the one good book. And if you don't agree with the cost per point, they'll buy around you. Being #1 in State College only means you don't have to bonus nights and weekends....but they still expect to spend $500 and get 10 promotions.

> > Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after
> the
> > Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> > what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> > shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> > here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> > guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> > yours!
> >
> > WFGY 11.0 (SOS) y
> > WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)y
> > WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup"
> stations) 5.5
> >
> > WJHT 6.5 (
Held down by GMR's challenge)
> > WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> > WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> > WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
>
> > Bellefonte)
> > WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes
> gotta
> > hurt)
> > WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> > Quick... yet)
> > WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> 4.9
> > WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> > book)
> > WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> > about time)
> > WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
> >
> > Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> > 107.9!
> > most I agree with...oldies listeners are loyal however
> wowy and the bus cross over music wise.................give
> wowy a bit more and they will grow.
> the thing I think that is the discussion here is that I hear
> a lot of folks saying too many freq changes this a 'throw
> away' book.......they aren't throw aways to the agencies
> etc...........we used to get monthly sweeps in Miami and the
> PD always said the numbers are the numbers are the
> numbers.....no matter what happens.........i wish all in the
> market especially air talent a great book....and may your
> ratings bonus kick in.....oh yeah forgot its state college
>
 
> Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after the
> Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> yours!
>
> WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
> WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
> WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations)
>
> WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
> Bellefonte)
> WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta
> hurt)
> WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> Quick... yet)
> WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> book)
> WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> about time)
> WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
>
> Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> 107.9!
>


Could you please tell me what is SOS?
 
"SOS"

Sorry--that's shorthand for "same old s--t!" No disrespect meant to either Froggy or 3WZ, but the more interesting stuff seems to be going on in the middle of the market, not at the top.


> Could you please tell me what is SOS?
>
 
> Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after the
> Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> yours!

I learned a long time ago that I'm not smart enough to try to predict the numbers, so I won't embarrass myself by trying.
 
It seems every few books the book skews north or west. Did you notice? Sometimes stations with no coverage in the city show stronger than you would think.

I also think that the sample size is so low that two or three people count. It’s mathematically easy to look at the claimed sample size and then the break downs to see that the rankings often times show very low response. Its very evident when stations have the same rank as each other or even multiples as seems to always happen in State College.

Its fun to see somebody who is analytical of the Arbs flips into the first few pages and dispel all the magic. I guess we could all list issues we have with the book. Mine would be that in State College they don’t survey college students; Ok that’s half the town isn’t it? And how much of the economy?

Hey M, great post I think you are right on or super close with the predictions, so will you do the shift at K Light if you are? LOL



> Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after the
> Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> yours!
>
> WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
> WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
> WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations)
>
> WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
> Bellefonte)
> WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta
> hurt)
> WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> Quick... yet)
> WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> book)
> WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> about time)
> WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
>
> Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> 107.9!
>
 
> Its fun to see somebody who is analytical of the Arbs
> flips into the first few pages and dispel all the magic. I
> guess we could all list issues we have with the book. Mine
> would be that in State College they don’t survey college
> students; Ok that’s half the town isn’t it? And how much of
> the economy?

Didn't I read a few years ago that Arbitron was thinking of including the students? I think the biggest issue if I recall was simply being able to find them and keep track of them since they move around so often even from one apartment to another within this town. That's the key...they may be here 4,5 or more years but rarely do they stay in the same apartment each year (even each semester in some cases)...the price goes up...so they move!

Honestly for the dirty dollar in the envelope from Arbitron...(their way of compensating you for your opinion...THAT'S FUNNY) I don't see the average College Student filling it out anyway...hell they have enough trouble finding the motivation to go to class each day.

Hitman
 
Samples & Students

Yeah, with only around 450 diaries in the metro, an entry here or an entry there can make a difference. Compare that to Philly with 15,000 diaries each survey. But every diary represents the same number of people (around 300) in every market, so theoretically/statistically it's fair. Just gotta remember that in small markets like this the variations from one book to the next might be BS. Instead you've gotta look at 3 or 4 books and identify the patterns (Froggy, 3WZ & Bus: consistently strong; WMAJ, WPHB & WIEZ: consistently not strong). It's the stations in the middle that are hard to assess. Arbitron started surveying dorms & military barracks--i.e., group housing--around 10 years ago. So the students in SC do count. Beyond that, only about 10,000 of the 42,000 PSU students live on campus anyway; so three-fourths of 'em are just tossed in with the rest of Centre County residents. (Some of us wish they'd all be forced to live on campus--especially around 3AM when they're still partying strong)!

> It seems every few books the book skews north or west. Did
> you notice? Sometimes stations with no coverage in the city
> show stronger than you would think.
>
> I also think that the sample size is so low that two or
> three people count. It’s mathematically easy to look at the
> claimed sample size and then the break downs to see that the
> rankings often times show very low response. Its very
> evident when stations have the same rank as each other or
> even multiples as seems to always happen in State College.
>
> Its fun to see somebody who is analytical of the Arbs
> flips into the first few pages and dispel all the magic. I
> guess we could all list issues we have with the book. Mine
> would be that in State College they don’t survey college
> students; Ok that’s half the town isn’t it? And how much of
> the economy?
>
> Hey M, great post I think you are right on or super close
> with the predictions, so will you do the shift at K Light if
> you are? LOL
>
>
>
> > Hey, this is gonna be a fun one--as the first book after
> the
> > Great State College Radio Shakeup. So what happened? For
> > what they're worth (nothing) here are my guesses, in 12+
> > shares for M-S 6A-Mid. (Mods: no copyright infringement
> > here--since they're not real numbers. Just wild-ass
> > guesses). All guesses are equally valid, so let's hear
> > yours!
> >
> > WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
> > WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
> > WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup"
> stations)
> >
> > WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> > WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> > WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> > WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
>
> > Bellefonte)
> > WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes
> gotta
> > hurt)
> > WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> > Quick... yet)
> > WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> > WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> > book)
> > WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> > about time)
> > WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
> >
> > Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> > 107.9!
> >
>
 
Hey, that'd be a kick--but I don't think they let Catholics do Christian Radio. They think we're a "cult." (They're afraid we'll make 'em root for Notre Dame)!


> Hey M, great post I think you are right on or super close
> with the predictions, so will you do the shift at K Light if
> you are? LOL
 
Is 3WZ still have the same owners from the late 80s? I almost went to work there, but stayed in Williamsport - eventually getting a call from Darrell Ray to do weekens at VAM.



> WFGY 11.0 (SOS)
> WZWW 11.0 (SOS, too)
> WBUS 9.0 (Least change of any of the "shakeup" stations)
>
> WJHT 6.5 (Held down by GMR's challenge)
> WGMR 5.5 (Continuing upward swing began last fall)
> WLTS 5.5 (Shouldn't have messed with mornings)
> WRSC 5.0 (No election; no football; no night signal in
> Bellefonte)
> WQWK 4.5 (Frequency change & morning show changes gotta
> hurt)
> WUBZ 3.5 (Big jump, but not quite enough to catch
> Quick... yet)
> WOWY 3.0 (Oldies fans are still trying to find 'em)
> WIEZ 2.0 (Rush & longer spring hours keep 'em in the
> book)
> WPHB 2.0 (They usually show up every few books; it's
> about time)
> WMAJ 1.5 (No football... too much baseball)
>
> Closest guesses win... uh, the overnite shift on K-Love
> 107.9!
>
 
No, they got sold about 5 years ago to a group out of Maryland or DC. Ditched the Soft AC for Hot AC about 3 years ago-- kind of a Caucasian CHR.


> Is 3WZ still have the same owners from the late 80s? I
> almost went to work there, but stayed in Williamsport -
> eventually getting a call from Darrell Ray to do weekens at
> VAM.
 
M,

I don’t follow you here. Arbitron does not send diaries to students. If they are not from State College they do not get diaries. If you are a student you get mail at home. I see it that a rural mom will fill the diaries out for the entire family for the entire time. State College is a transient town even other then the students. Help me out on your numbers here? I was not even thinking about the kids on campus. Permanent addresses get diaries, residents get diaries. I don’t know very many students that run out and change their permanent addresses when they move here.

If you read the Arbitron propaganda or go into maximizer it goes even further to show that student are completely ignored. Even in that demo the college student is vastly under represented.

I will pull your music for you at K love and sure we can get some Hail Mary’s on!

Maybe some station should remember that State College is 80% Catholic!



> Hey, that'd be a kick--but I don't think they let Catholics
> do Christian Radio. They think we're a "cult." (They're
> afraid we'll make 'em root for Notre Dame)!
>
>
> > Hey M, great post I think you are right on or super
> close
> > with the predictions, so will you do the shift at K Light
> if
> > you are? LOL
>
 
> Maybe some station should remember that State College is
> 80% Catholic!

I don't know where you got that statistic, it may very well be true. But if you look at Centre County as a whole, it appears that the Methodist Church has most of the population here.

That's going solely a guess based on the number of Methodist churches in the county compared to other churches in the county. There are no religious statistics taken when the Census is done.
 
No Dorm Diaries!

You are absolutely correct. Called an old buddy at Arbitron in Columbia to confirm my stupidity, and he said "Yeah, they talked about changing it--but never did." No dorms or military barracks. Also said that they were having huge trouble with 18-24s not having land lines anymore, with response rates down in the 50-60% range. Worse yet, for CHR/rock stations, said under 25s are abandoning radio altogether for iPods. Said some pretty good stations are just getting hammered. Hmmmmm. Lot of SC players focused on "under 25."


> I don’t follow you here. Arbitron does not send
> diaries to students. If they are not from State College they
> do not get diaries. If you are a student you get mail at
> home. I see it that a rural mom will fill the diaries out
> for the entire family for the entire time. State College is
> a transient town even other then the students. Help me out
> on your numbers here? I was not even thinking about the
> kids on campus. Permanent addresses get diaries, residents
> get diaries. I don’t know very many students that run out
> and change their permanent addresses when they move here.
>
> If you read the Arbitron propaganda or go into
> maximizer it goes even further to show that student are
> completely ignored. Even in that demo the college student is
> vastly under represented.
>
> I will pull your music for you at K love and sure we
> can get some Hail Mary’s on!
 
> I will pull your music for you at K love and sure we
> can get some Hail Mary’s on!
>
> Maybe some station should remember that State College is
> 80% Catholic!
>

Then we'd have to have the BINGO Format...cause we all know how great we Catholics are at holding Bingo games and the likes!
 
> > Maybe some station should remember that State College is
>
> > 80% Catholic!
>
> I don't know where you got that statistic, it may very well
> be true. But if you look at Centre County as a whole, it
> appears that the Methodist Church has most of the population
> here.
>
> That's going solely a guess based on the number of Methodist
> churches in the county compared to other churches in the
> county. There are no religious statistics taken when the
> Census is done.
>
speaking of number of Methodist churches...explain the FREE Methodist church from the average Methodist church...is there an admission fee at one? :)
 
Re: No Dorm Diaries!

> You are absolutely correct. Called an old buddy at Arbitron
> in Columbia to confirm my stupidity, and he said "Yeah, they
> talked about changing it--but never did." No dorms or
> military barracks. Also said that they were having huge
> trouble with 18-24s not having land lines anymore, with
> response rates down in the 50-60% range. Worse yet, for
> CHR/rock stations, said under 25s are abandoning radio
> altogether for iPods. Said some pretty good stations are
> just getting hammered. Hmmmmm. Lot of SC players focused on
> "under 25."
>

cassettes, 8-tracks, Quad Discs, I-Pods, video, playstation - 18-24 and 25-34 males have ALWAYS been a problem. If they don't vote, they're gonna fill out a diary for 7 days for a buck? Guys are just way too cool to fill out a diary, much less admit they listen to commercial radio and Arbitron weights these cells and has since the 70's - just like ethnic listening. Ask your friend for the magic AQH threshold at which Arbitron throws out a diary for a non-ethnic listener vs. an ethnic listener. Non-ethnics aren't suppose to listen to the radio for long periods like ethnics according to Arbitron. SC being a college town will always have the bulk of stations going after the college dollar since 70% of the revenue is controlled by beer, apartment, fast food and bar money. Ya won't be hearing Nittany Crossing or Players on Lite or K-Love anytime soon.
>
> > I don’t follow you here. Arbitron does not send
>
> > diaries to students. If they are not from State College
> they
> > do not get diaries. If you are a student you get mail at
> > home. I see it that a rural mom will fill the diaries out
>
> > for the entire family for the entire time. State College
> is
> > a transient town even other then the students. Help me out
>
> > on your numbers here? I was not even thinking about the
> > kids on campus. Permanent addresses get diaries, residents
>
> > get diaries. I don’t know very many students that run out
> > and change their permanent addresses when they move here.
>
> >
> > If you read the Arbitron propaganda or go into
> > maximizer it goes even further to show that student are
> > completely ignored. Even in that demo the college student
> is
> > vastly under represented.
> >
> > I will pull your music for you at K love and sure we
> > can get some Hail Mary’s on!
>
 
> > > Maybe some station should remember that State College
> is
> >
> > > 80% Catholic!
> >
> > I don't know where you got that statistic, it may very
> well
> > be true. But if you look at Centre County as a whole, it
> > appears that the Methodist Church has most of the
> population
> > here.
> >
> > That's going solely a guess based on the number of
> Methodist
> > churches in the county compared to other churches in the
> > county. There are no religious statistics taken when the
> > Census is done.
> >
> speaking of number of Methodist churches...explain the FREE
> Methodist church from the average Methodist church...is
> there an admission fee at one? :)
>
Well, I think the fee in most churches is your soul...but the Free Methodist churchis usually a little more liberal/charismatic and you don't hear Wesleyan teaching there. Methodist (or United Methodist) churches are more orthodox.
 
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