March 2023 Buffalo-Niagara Falls Trends

[Rusty Bridges]

March 2023

The suits at WBFO are probably saying, "See, told ya so." 97 Rock, WHTT, WECK, WBUF and WBFO inching up. Kiss and Star slipping... but not as bad as Audacy stock. Persons 12+ ... virtually meaningless, but food for speculatin'.

 

[tbolt909]

WBLK is close to a 10 share. They certainly must have a diverse group of listeners. It cannot be limited to only Black listeners to have ratings that high.

Lack of Blizzard coverage doesn't appear to be hurting WBFO. NPR content far outclasses anything in the commercial realm...

 

[ckg279]

-WEDG is also "edging" up(3.8 in the March trend).

-WUFO breaks the 1.0 in the latest trend(1.2)

-CFLZ(101.1 More FM)has no change from the last trend( .8).

 

[SirRoxalot]

You can check out the full slate of the enrolled for yourself here:Ruste

https://ratings.****************/content/arb037

As Rusty said, beauty pageant numbers with little meaning other than bragging rights.

WBFO did have a good book. It looks like they stole nearly a share from Kiss.

Star's Christmas bubble has burst, and they're back to their normal range. 97-Rock and WHTT are up a bit, likely recovering some of those Star listeners who couldn't resist hearing Mariah a few (hundred) more times.

WGR is on its slow slide to the summer doldrums. It's tougher when you don't have Bills or Sabres games to prop you up.

WECK may have benefitted from all the press they've been getting lately. Expect a curiosity bump over the next few months. After that, we'll see.

Otherwise, most stations are within the statistical variance expected, so no real changes.

 

[SirRoxalot]

WBLK is close to a 10 share. They certainly must have a diverse group of listeners. It cannot be limited to only Black listeners to have ratings that high.

Lack of Blizzard coverage doesn't appear to be hurting WBFO. NPR content far outclasses anything in the commercial realm...

Even if it was 10% of all available listeners, you might still be wrong. Considering that the population of Erie County is 12.7% Black or African-American, it's not a surprise that a legacy station primarily focused on that audience gets most of it. Add WUFO's 1.2 share and you've got pretty much all of the listening. And that's disregarding studies that show people from less affluent economic situations tend to listen to radio more than people who have other paid options.

Erie County, NY | Data USA

In 2020, Erie County, NY had a population of 919k people with a median age of 40.4 and a median household income of $59,464. Between 2019 and 2020 the population of Erie County, NY declined from 919,355 to 918,873, a −0.0524% decrease and its median household income grew from $58,121 to $59,464...

datausa.io

I don't disagree that there are people of other ethnicities listening to the station, but there's no way without seeing the actual breakouts to come to your conclusion.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Keep in mind that as much as this is a March trend, it's actually January-February-March which comprise the Winter book. So when addressing events relative to possible ratings increases or losses, things that happened in Snow-vember 22 or the Blizzard of 22 are outside the parameters of this period.

That noted, WBFO is showing incremental gains, which anecdotally would discount much of the criticism (including my writings) the station has received here.

AC Star 102.5 is especially interesting. It rated well in December, 5.5 (Oct-Nov-Dec); improved in January, 6.2 (Nov-Dec-Jan); and topped out in February, 6.7 (Dec-Jan-Feb). Yet, March, ostensibly Jan-Feb-Mar as a rolling average, shows a substantial decline to 4.9. This could indicated that All Christmas music performed exceptionally well, but without it the format fell off the table. In this regard Star, in a diary market, mirrors some of the major market diary-measured stations that shot into the stratosphere in the "Christmas trend" but returned to Earth afterwards.

AC competitor The Breeze, by contrast, appears consistently mediocre. Again, these are Persons 12+ numbers.

 

[davideduardo]

Even if it was 10% of all available listeners, you might still be wrong. Considering that the population of Erie County is 12.7% Black or African-American, it's not a surprise that a legacy station primarily focused on that audience gets most of it.

However, the MSA is both Erie and Niagara counties, with Niagara representing about 20% of the 12+ population

Add WUFO's 1.2 share and you've got pretty much all of the listening.

No, because in the 6-Midnight weekly time frame, only 7% of all people are listening at any given time. WBLK has considerably longer TSL than the other significant music stations (typical for all ethnic stations) so that enhances their performance.

And that's disregarding studies that show people from less affluent economic situations tend to listen to radio more than people who have other paid options.

It is less income related than culturally related. There are fewer Black targeted media outlets in all areas, from print to streams, so the ones that do exist get longer attention. That has nothing to do with income. I was party to some income studies of Hispanics a few years ago and we found that higher income Hispanics... they ones that buy a new Lexus for example... listen more because they tend to have jobs that allow greater at-work listening choices and more free time due to higher income.

I don't disagree that there are people of other ethnicities listening to the station, but there's no way without seeing the actual breakouts to come to your conclusion.

Remember, share is the percentage of radio listeners who are tuned to one station or combo. WBLK's AQH audience is about 7% of its total cume.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Remember, share is the percentage of radio listeners who are tuned to one station or combo. WBLK's AQH audience is about 7% of its total cume.

The cume to AQH and cume to Share has long intrigued this poster, especially as it relates to turning cume into AQH persons, TSL and AQ Share. There was, at one time, the strong programming bromide/recommendation/adage/advisory/admonition that "20% of the cume drives the bus for AQH Persons and share." Rightly or wrongly, many programmers adhered to that philosophy and programmed accordingly, "If we can turn x per cent of or cume to Quarter Hour, we'll make bank." Time and PPM may have turned that on its head, but perhaps not in some PPM markets.

 

[davideduardo]

The cume to AQH and cume to Share has long intrigued this poster, especially as it relates to turning cume into AQH persons, TSL and AQ Share.

AQH share, AQH rating and AQH Persons are all the same thing, just as 1/2, 2/4 and 250/500 are the same.

There was, at one time, the strong programming bromide/recommendation/adage/advisory/admonition that "20% of the cume drives the bus for AQH Persons and share."

That was wrong. It was, roughly, 50% of the cume provides 90% of the AQH listening. In the PPM, where there is a lot of tertiary listening and beyond... stuff a diarykeeper does not remember... it is more like 75% of listening comes from half the cume.

Rightly or wrongly, many programmers adhered to that philosophy and programmed accordingly, "If we can turn x per cent of or cume to Quarter Hour, we'll make bank." Time and PPM may have turned that on its head, but perhaps not in some PPM markets.

The only difference in PPM is that a lot of secondary listening does not get picked up in the diary. Example: the person who tunes the news station to get traffic when they get in the car and who tunes elsewhere after just a short listen.

The PPM picks that up, as well as the person who hears a station in the bakery while waiting for an order. Advertisers don´t care if a person is truly "listening" as long as their ad is heard.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Thanks for sorting ↑ that out, especially the PPM metrics. I was well aware of the AQH Share/ Persons/Rating definition, they are, as you noted the same, simply expressed in different mathematical expressions.

The only difference in PPM is that a lot of secondary listening does not get picked up in the diary. Example: the person who tunes the news station to get traffic when they get in the car and who tunes elsewhere after just a short listen. The PPM picks that up, as well as the person who hears a station in the bakery while waiting for an order.

This is what nettles my friends who program in PPM markets. Some have resigned themselves to believing this nuance can work as much for them as against them.

Advertisers don´t care if a person is truly "listening" as long as their ad is heard.

For sure ... although it brings up the discussion as to the differences between listeners "listening" and actually "hearing." Years ago in diary markets, the Critical Mass people were sticklers for having the produced intros and promos written and voiced with the words, "You're hearing the Joe Jamoke show on 1480 WGAF."

 

[tbolt909]

Even if it was 10% of all available listeners, you might still be wrong. Considering that the population of Erie County is 12.7% Black or African-American, it's not a surprise that a legacy station primarily focused on that audience gets most of it. Add WUFO's 1.2 share and you've got pretty much all of the listening. And that's disregarding studies that show people from less affluent economic situations tend to listen to radio more than people who have other paid options.

I don't disagree that there are people of other ethnicities listening to the station, but there's no way without seeing the actual breakouts to come to your conclusion.

That data would suggest that almost EVERY Black person would have to be a Radio user and a WBLK listener. That doesn't seem plausible. If the Black population is roughly 12 percent, maybe half would be Radio users. I understand that the call letters WBLK do not mean "Black" as other sites have suggested. The station has almost a 10 share and many White people listen to the music that the station plays. I would expect that some Black people even listen to KISS and other non Radio options...

 

[SirRoxalot]

That data would suggest that almost EVERY Black person would have to be a Radio user and a WBLK listener. That doesn't seem plausible. If the Black population is roughly 12 percent, maybe half would be Radio users. I understand that the call letters WBLK do not mean "Black" as other sites have suggested. The station has almost a 10 share and many White people listen to the music that the station plays. I would expect that some Black people even listen to KISS and other non Radio options...

But we're seeing shares, the portion of the audience that is listening, not the total audience. I'm not disputing that WBLK has wider appeal than just the Black community. It does make sense that the majority of Black listeners are likely tuned into WBLK. Are some Black listeners going elsewhere? Sure. Are some non-Black listeners tuning in? Sure. My guess is those number about even out. It's also possible WBLK's share would be even higher if some Black listeners weren't stuck listening to other stations in some workplaces. The bottom line is that WBLK does a very good job serving its audience.

 

[davideduardo]

That data would suggest that almost EVERY Black person would have to be a Radio user and a WBLK listener. That doesn't seem plausible. If the Black population is roughly 12 percent, maybe half would be Radio users.

Among all persons over 18, radio usage or "cume" is about 85%. Among Hispanics and Blacks over 18, it is closer to 90%. Where do you consistently come up with radio usage statistics that are not based on fact?

I understand that the call letters WBLK do not mean "Black" as other sites have suggested. The station has almost a 10 share and many White people listen to the music that the station plays. I would expect that some Black people even listen to KISS and other non Radio options...

And that happens everywhere. But remember that among under-40-year-olds, rock is on a severe decline nationally and rhythmic music is becoming the choice of a broadening percentage of people. That means that many Urban stations in markets that have lower Black percentages of the population will find a "home" being the rhythmic station, not the Black station.

We see this multi-ethnic mix in a number of western or southwestern markets like LA, San Francisco, San Diego and Phoenix as well as smaller ones like Fresno and Bakersfield where rhythmic stations are broadly shared by Black, white, Hispanic and many immigrant communities. Remember, too, that rhythmic music is far more popular in most of Europe and Latin America where a considerable percentage of immigrants are arriving from.

 

[TheBigA]

Seems to me that just last month, Bob Barnett addressed the audience of WBLK issue very directly. Here's what he said:

I just checked…Nielsen reports 65.5% of WBLK’s weekly 12+ cume composition is black.

Statistically white people are more likely to listen to a black station than the other way around. For example, the average for black people listening to classic hits is under 4%.

 

[tbolt909]

Among all persons over 18, radio usage or "cume" is about 85%. Among Hispanics and Blacks over 18, it is closer to 90%. Where do you consistently come up with radio usage statistics that are not based on fact?

Those numbers may have been accurate in 1995, but I am skeptical they still are that high. If you mean "Cume" counts as anyone turning on a Radio station once a year, then sure. Even you have acknowledged that TSL is way down. Sirius XM counts new cars that come with a 60 day free trial as "subscribers", so there are ways to fudge the numbers...

 

[davideduardo]

Those numbers may have been accurate in 1995, but I am skeptical they still are that high. If you mean "Cume" counts as anyone turning on a Radio station once a year, then sure. Even you have acknowledged that TSL is way down...

Cume in Nielsen, whether the diary or the PPM, is based on having "heard" ("listening" is not a measured quality) radio for one quarter hour in a week.

Those numbers are accurate as of the March PPMs, out last week and the (former) Winter Diary surveys, coming out now... in 2023.

The average person listens for 6 to 7 hours a week, depending on the market (lower in New York where people take public transit and higher in Miami where traffic is terrible and slow).

Going back to the 70's and 80's, there were about 5% to 6% who never, in each week, heard radio. And there were plenty who just listened briefly each week.

Using the PPM as the base, in 2009 about 9 to 11 hours a week was spent listening to radio by the average person (it was... and is... much higher in the diary do to lack of minute by minute precision). So, with all the streaming and alternative entertainment sources, radio is only off by about 40% and still reaches about 85% of all persons. No other medium does it as well and as cost effectively.

Yes, it's a lot different than the 1930's and 1940's when families huddled around the radio to hear The Lone Ranger and Fibber McGee & Molly or the later 50's when kids huddled under the sheets to hear Elvis and Little Richard. But radio still reaches a huge number of people effectively. Whether the industry can successfully move to 100% streaming depends more on how to deal with rights payments than the entertainment value of the medium.