March Arbitron ratings released on Monday. Will Nash FM soar?

[davideduardo]

Wonder what the poster wntiradio thinks now cause he posted on 3/13:

"This thing is going to wind up over a 3 by summer and shock everyone."

I like this station alot but a 3+ in only 2 more months is just delusional.

It's already at a 2 share in 18-49 at the end of the March book. "Summer" is a diary term. But the Summer book was July-August-September, so we have three more books before "Summer" begins... and 6 months before that old, 12-week book concept ends.

With new air talent, fine tuning the format and the word spreading via social media and such, getting to a 3 in 18-48 and maybe a 2.8 in 25-54 by mid-summer is not too far-fetched an idea.

 

[dcowboy7]

Wonder what the poster wntiradio thinks now cause he posted on 3/13:

"This thing is going to wind up over a 3 by summer and shock everyone."

I like this station alot but a 3+ in only 2 more months is just delusional.

It's already at a 2 share in 18-49 at the end of the March book. "Summer" is a diary term. But the Summer book was July-August-September, so we have three more books before "Summer" begins... and 6 months before that old, 12-week book concept ends.

With new air talent, fine tuning the format and the word spreading via social media and such, getting to a 3 in 18-48 and maybe a 2.8 in 25-54 by mid-summer is not too far-fetched an idea.

Few points:
- he didnt mention 18-49 so overall theyre at 1.8 thats what im goin by.
- he said by summer so to me thats at the start meaning their rating as of 6/21 the start of summer (he didnt say diary summer) so thats 2 books from now.
- some say summer actually starts memorial day weekend. ;D

 

[davideduardo]

Really? you've said the same about other launches in NYC? I think not.

There is no comparable PPM era launch in NYC. This one has to be evaluated on its own merits.

You and I both know that .6 is week 1, after that it's largely flat since.

I said that it has gone from a 0.6 to a 2.0 in 18-49 in 9 weeks. That's a 366% improvement over 9 weeks. That is hardly "flat".

It's just that not that impressive, we discussed this a month ago. A station of that size for a format so popular (nationally true) should have broken 1m cume by now.

By what standard? The format is, for 18-34, essentially a new format in NY for OTA radio. And 18-34 is the new core of country.

It does not matter what the format does in other heritage markets. It has to establish itself as a new alternative and develop a following. Since the launch was jockless, and there was little social media push initially, this will take a few more months to reach the level at which we can evaluate it. But in the meantime, it has definitely done adequately considering the challenge of a deficient signal, a format that has no "natural cume" in NYC and music that is mostly unfamiliar to the listening area.

Objectively it's underperfoming so far. It's a long game, no where near over, but facts remain so far. Too much defensive knee jerk reactions going on here.

I believe most of us think this one is over performing the initial expectations. It's still growing week to week, so, were I involved, I'd be optimistic.

 

[davideduardo]

- he said by summer so to me thats at the start meaning their rating as of 6/21 the start of summer (he didnt say diary summer) so thats 2 books from now.

The July book begins precisely on June 21. That means we have three full books to go before that date... April, May and June. The data released yesterday was the March book, 3/1 to 3/28.

 

[davideduardo]

- he didnt mention 18-49 so overall theyre at 1.8 thats what im goin by.

But the overall is not used for sales or programming. The stated target of the station is 18-49.

And the 1.8 in 6+ is for the entire month of March. I am looking at the weekly data, and seeing nice growth from the start to the end of the month.

 

[MoldaMania182]

There is no comparable PPM era launch in NYC. This one has to be evaluated on its own merits.

You sure about that? You're going to tell me with a straight face no format change has occurred in the PPM era from severly underperforming to near non existant ratings. WEMP, WRXP 2, WFAN even? Really, wow. Yikes. Thought you were smarter than that. Spin Spin Spin David.

I said that it has gone from a 0.6 to a 2.0 in 18-49 in 9 weeks. That's a 366% improvement over 9 weeks. That is hardly "flat".

....Annnnd still ignore my point. Typical marketing hyperbole. Again after the 2nd-3rd week of being in the 1.x and 1.6ish by week 4, where has it really gone in the following 5 weeks? (Hint I can see the numbers) More spin from the 'consultant', Next.

By what standard? The format is, for 18-34, essentially a new format in NY for OTA radio. And 18-34 is the new core of country.

It does not matter what the format does in other heritage markets. It has to establish itself as a new alternative and develop a following. Since the launch was jockless, and there was little social media push initially, this will take a few more months to reach the level at which we can evaluate it. But in the meantime, it has definitely done adequately considering the challenge of a deficient signal, a format that has no "natural cume" in NYC and music that is mostly unfamiliar to the listening area.

Purely your opinion. Surely no other launch has been jockless or relied on social pushes in NY, ever. (funny, which you have said numerous times in the past are irrelevant at large) Keep spinning the signal issues in areas (east) that largely don't matter to it's core audience (NJ)...

I believe most of us think this one is over performing the initial expectations. It's still growing week to week, so, were I involved, I'd be optimistic.

Cumulus says check's in the mail.

 

[UncleBozzle]

Does it really matter how they do Average Joe? It's been regurgitated over and over that NASH FM is a marketing tool. Seems that the numbers are pretty respectable though. What's your agenda? Let the station develop and grow. You obviously don't get the Country format. That being said it seems many people do.

 

[djl]

We know that a move to ESB is unlikely due to protection from 94.3 in Smithtown WWSK. Is there a possibility Nash can move to 1WTC once the antenna is complete? Is 1WTC any further outside WWSK's protected contour?

 

[luperm]

We know that a move to ESB is unlikely due to protection from 94.3 in Smithtown WWSK. Is there a possibility Nash can move to 1WTC once the antenna is complete? Is 1WTC any further outside WWSK's protected contour?

I'm pretty sure you start running into problems with WJLK-FM/Asbury Park, NJ when you go look at WTC. Plus I don't think WTC gets rid of the Smithtown problem.

 

[djl]

Approximately 2 miles west of WWSK's transmitter is WBAB Babylon at 102.3. How come they ARE not protected from 101.9 or 102.7 from ESB? With that in mind, is there any way Nash could be allowed to broadcast at full Class B power from ESB or 1WTC?

 

[WNTIRadio]

We've been around this time and time again.

Some stations in the area are grandfathered in, due to being pre-1963 allocations, when there was no allocation table. That's how 96.7 and 103.9 can move in closer to NYC.

As to my ratings prediction, maybe it will take until the end of summer, but with the right marketing push it can happen with a 3.0 in 18-49. 6+ is a longshot, but not out of the realm of possibility.

94.7 had no previous audience that would sample it based on a prior preset. It was a black hole on the FM dial in NYC for so long that nobody went near it.

 

[davideduardo]

You sure about that? You're going to tell me with a straight face no format change has occurred in the PPM era from severly underperforming to near non existant ratings. WEMP, WRXP 2, WFAN even? Really, wow. Yikes. Thought you were smarter than that. Spin Spin Spin David.

I said "comparable change". Changing an FM to talk is not comparable. Adding an HD-2 channel is not comparable.

With Nash, we are talking about reintroducing a format that has had no representation on anything but an ultra-fringe signal for years and years and years.

....Annnnd still ignore my point. Typical marketing hyperbole. Again after the 2nd-3rd week of being in the 1.x and 1.6ish by week 4, where has it really gone in the following 5 weeks? (Hint I can see the numbers) More spin from the 'consultant', Next.

And, as I said, first week: 0.6 in 18-49. Last week of 9 measured weeks so far, 2.0. That is significant growth, particularly since each week tends to be a tad better than the one before.

Purely your opinion. Surely no other launch has been jockless or relied on social pushes in NY, ever.

You have misread the post. I am saying that there was no significant marketing, no jocks, nada, the first week. In other words, it is different to look 9 weeks later at the ratings for a station that spent millions in TV, transit and other media and the ratings for one that started off with essentially a soft launch.

(funny, which you have said numerous times in the past are irrelevant at large)

I have no idea what that means.

Keep spinning the signal issues in areas (east) that largely don't matter to it's core audience (NJ)...

Ah, but if you look at how important Nassau Suffolk are to a station in that format... or how important the area could be, then you see why I believe that Nash operates at a disadvantage... one that likely is costing them a 0.4 or so in 18-49 share now.

Cumulus says check's in the mail.

While that would be nice, it would violate my noncompete.

 

[dcowboy7]

They are doing a great job with the playlist as theyve basically played every song that has made the top 20 on the billboard country chart since theyve been on the air so dont have to worry about a hit getting skipped for some reason.

Ive read on another message boards that some other stations sometimes are very late to play songs even after theyre almost in the top 10 or the opposite when they still play songs heavy that have already gone chart recurrent.

Nash is doing a good job with spinning current hits then easing off as they leave the chart.

 

[TonySantiago]

Now went from 2.4 to 1.8 perhaps a format change is about to happen? 92.3 WINS? 92.3 News? 92.3 K-Rock? 92.3 The Fan & 101.9 New Rock?

92.3 NOW, New York's DANCE MUSIC leader.

And if they STILL don't get that, then whatever format they flip to, should they bail out of CHR, I hope they suffer WORSE.

 

[XCountry285]

Bring back K-Rock

 

[Morpheux]

Around 2.0 is the best that Nash can do with a niche format in NY. As long as they bill well,you know the rest...

 

[luperm]

Around 2.0 is the best that Nash can do with a niche format in NY. As long as they bill well,you know the rest...

Based on what? How RXP did with rock?

 

[XCountry285]

Based on that RXP 2.0 was getting higher ratings as the ratings went on. They were almost at 3.0

 

[chrocket87]

Based on that RXP 2.0 was getting higher ratings as the ratings went on. They were almost at 3.0

They finished at a 2.2. How is that almost a 3.0?

 

[Dick Skinner]

rating 1.8 = 20th.

cume 857,700 = 19th.

Z100 did great.

It's not a rating, it's a share.