November Ratings (Xmas Effect)

[PTBoardOp94]

If the entire month of December in Buffalo is not rated, then Nielsen only needs 11 books not 12 for diary markets. Maybe David can elaborate. PPM markets don't take a whole month off...

Here are the survey dates related to each book: http://www.arbitron.com/downloads/Survey_Schedule.pdf Spoiler: Buddy's dates are correct.

Nielsen is using 12 4-week ratings periods in continuous diary markets like Buffalo. Notice that the January book dates are 16 weeks apart instead of the 12 weeks that the December book covered.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Here are the survey dates related to each book: http://www.arbitron.com/downloads/Survey_Schedule.pdf Spoiler: Buddy's dates are correct.

Nielsen is using 12 4-week ratings periods in continuous diary markets like Buffalo. Notice that the January book dates are 16 weeks apart instead of the 12 weeks that the December book covered.

Finally, another person who shows facts. Thank you Eric. It's unbelievable to me that I spend thousands every month to get every rating stat out available every month, and neophytes like "TBOLT", (not confident enough to say who is really is- hides behind fake name) still do not understand what I am saying. Again, TBOLT, we are NOT in a rating period right now. For stations playing Christmas Music, that is their problem. The big winners this time of the year should be WGR with the way the Bills are playing (and WGR is on fire now), WBEN (Which is not on fire), and a little perplexing with impeachment news, (which is fake news anyway and a total hoax against our President), and 102.5 and 96.1 should see a bump. The new ratings system IS confusing. Even to me. I am on the phone with my rep almost daily trying to figure it out. The first thing I said when he said we were in a ratings hiatus for Dec was "What about the Christmas stations?" He could not explain it. This should not be an exceptionally good period for music stations in Buffalo, like mine, right now, but so far, so good. If we can get thru this period of winter type ratings, I am happy. Throw away conventional wisdom. The world has changed, and broadcast media has changed, both TV and Radio. Eric, I admire what you are doing online, and I have my own thoughts on that, that can make a ton of money and really shake things up. Remember, I also own many billboards on the major highways...www.mediaonebillboards.com (Didn't know that, did you TBOLT). I would like to talk to you one to one if you ever get the chance. Email me or Private me, or whatever you need to do. Anyway, let's all cut the ****, and get back to ways we can work together to have relevant conversations about the strengths and challenges of broadcasting. Have a great weekend - Go Bills!

 

[Element9]

Can we please stop with the ad hominem "boy you are dumb" stuff? I realize it's de rigueur for our commander in chief, but it really detracts from the validity and veracity of one's point of view, whether it's politics or a radio geek message board.

Now, regarding weighted and unweighted, to the best of my reading the Nielsen methodology on line, all reports are now weighted. No need to break out extrapolation formulas, because each month can be isolated. But even when the monthly is isolated, the results are weighted.

If my reading of the methodology incorrect, please advise. As has been noted a few times in this thread, numerous Nielsen clients are having difficulty processing the methodology.

 

[davideduardo]

Now, regarding weighted and unweighted, to the best of my reading the Nielsen methodology on line, all reports are now weighted. No need to break out extrapolation formulas, because each month can be isolated. But even when the monthly is isolated, the results are weighted.

That is correct. Each "monthly" release in the Continuous Diary Measurement (CDM) markets is fully weighted.

Each month, there is a report that takes the survey data from the past 84 days and processes them with full weighting on all the stratification variables and which represents a "free standing" report that is valid for sales.

In the past, Nielsen (and Arbitron) issued only 4 full reports a year in these markets. They issued interim "trend reports" each non-release month, but they were a combination of two parts of one book and one part of another, without full weighting and were very erratic.

We can still extrapolate with software like Xtrends the movement in each individual month. So, with Xtrends we could take the November book and find out the approximate listening for September, October and November. But those are mathematical extractions, not weighted "real numbers".

 

[davideduardo]

Since Buddy is so much smarter, he should know that "Unweighted" numbers are worthless. If the entire month of December in Buffalo is not rated, then Nielsen only needs 11 books not 12 for diary markets. Maybe David can elaborate. PPM markets don't take a whole month off...

December is a hiatus. There are 12 books in a year in CDM markets, each covering a rolling 84 day period. Not 11. PPM has 13 books a year, with the one that is mostly December and a few days in January being called "Holiday".

The Nielsen "month" is 28 days, four weeks.Because it is hard to recruit diary-keepers during he Holiday 4-week period, they don't survey that period at all. So there are 12 CDM market reports vs. 13 in the PPM.

Every CDM report is now weighted on every stratification variable and is equally valid for sales and program evaluation (unlike the "trends" we had before).

 

[davideduardo]

How long is the Ratings Hiatus for diary markets during December? A lengthy break sort of defeats the purpose of programming Xmas Music and hoping for a ratings boost. It also raises the question - Why would Cumulus buy the December report if half the month is on hiatus and not being monitored? That month would be valueless...

"Month" is a vague term in radio ratings. Nielsen uses a 28-day month, and the year starts on Thursday in the first week of January. So by the time you get to the last of the 12-week periods, there are still twenty-some days left in the year.

The "December" Continuous Diary Measurement book covers the three 28 day periods from a point in September to about the first Wednesday in December. It covers the full 84 days, and is the equivalent of the old "Fall" book.

Advertisers don't want the Christmas period to be in the weighted rolling average CDM books. That is because by the time the book comes out, it's too late to use the Christmas season data. Advertisers use the Fall book to plan the next year's buys (although the generally use the average of more than one book to plan buys. So an agency would use not just the Oct-Nov-Dec period but the July-Aug-Sept period to plan buys (you can't average the December book with the November book, etc., as each includes parts of the other).

 

[davideduardo]

If the survey ended November 6th, then it's really not a "November" report. Nielsen calls it a November report, so that is a misleading title. These monthly reports are 3 month cycles, so theoretically it should be Sep-Oct-Nov. That also is not accurate, if November is not fully counted.

The "month" names are well understood in the industry, as the nomenclature has been in effect in the PPM markets since the earliest tests going back to 2002 and the rollout in 2008.

The fact that the "names" don't match the months is well understood in the radio industry and in the advertising business. There is nothing misleading as the reports clearly specify the survey periods.

As I explained in another post, a Nielsen "month" is a 28-day period, so by the end of the year you have 4 weeks left over. In the PPM, that "month" is measured and named "holiday" while in the CDM system, it is a blackout period.

 

[tbolt909]

The "month" names are well understood in the industry, as the nomenclature has been in effect in the PPM markets since the earliest tests going back to 2002 and the rollout in 2008.

The fact that the "names" don't match the months is well understood in the radio industry and in the advertising business. There is nothing misleading as the reports clearly specify the survey periods.

As I explained in another post, a Nielsen "month" is a 28-day period, so by the end of the year you have 4 weeks left over. In the PPM, that "month" is measured and named "holiday" while in the CDM system, it is a blackout period.

Thanks for the clarification. Since the report was issued on December 6th and called NOV 2019, it seems logical that the information should cover the whole month. Obviously, the Xmas music won't be included until the next report. The new system was supposed to be "faster and current", but there still is lag time.

I know that before PPM, the Fall Book ended around December 16th...

 

[davideduardo]

Thanks for the clarification. Since the report was issued on December 6th and called NOV 2019, it seems logical that the information should cover the whole month. Obviously, the Xmas music won't be included until the next report. The new system was supposed to be "faster and current", but there still is lag time.

In the PPM the time lag is about 2½ to three weeks, depending on the size of the market; this is for processing and verification. It is a little bit more in the continuous diary markets because there is a time period needed for the last week's diaries to be mailed, received and processed. So the diary reports come out 3 to 4 weeks after the end of the last week of measurement.

The system is "current" because there is a currency report 12 times a year, not 4 times. That means that the most recent report is only about a month old, not up to four months. There is no way to speed up a paper diary system, although there is hope that a diary app will obviate that whole thing.

I know that before PPM, the Fall Book ended around December 16th...

Previously, we had a several week hiatus starting on a Thursday in mid-December and ending on a Wednesday in the first week of January. There was also a hiatus after the Winter book of one week. With the change to the PPM, and the need to keep the panel activated always, the blackouts were eliminated and we got a 13th month in each year.

Nielsen measures weeks starting Thursday and ending Wednesday, and so the calendar dates vary every year.

 

[tbolt909]

In the PPM the time lag is about 2½ to three weeks, depending on the size of the market; this is for processing and verification. It is a little bit more in the continuous diary markets because there is a time period needed for the last week's diaries to be mailed, received and processed. So the diary reports come out 3 to 4 weeks after the end of the last week of measurement.

The system is "current" because there is a currency report 12 times a year, not 4 times. That means that the most recent report is only about a month old, not up to four months. There is no way to speed up a paper diary system, although there is hope that a diary app will obviate that whole thing.



Previously, we had a several week hiatus starting on a Thursday in mid-December and ending on a Wednesday in the first week of January. There was also a hiatus after the Winter book of one week. With the change to the PPM, and the need to keep the panel activated always, the blackouts were eliminated and we got a 13th month in each year.

Nielsen measures weeks starting Thursday and ending Wednesday, and so the calendar dates vary every year.

Yes, the new system is more "current" than the old Quarterly system. It still seems rather quaint to be using paper diaries. Most people could use an App, Email or Text function on their phone to transmit daily data to Nielsen. It would be faster(and probably more accurate than diaries).

The new system has also eliminated December. Perhaps that's why the AC stations flipped to Xmas on November 1.
In years past, the Fall Book didn't end until mid month...

 

[four4rock]

...
Most people could use an App, Email or Text function on their phone to transmit daily data to Nielsen. It would be faster(and probably more accurate than diaries).

...

Wouldn't that blatantly jettison various groups of (presumed) audience... those w/out mobile device capability or fluency, for example.

 

[davideduardo]

Yes, the new system is more "current" than the old Quarterly system. It still seems rather quaint to be using paper diaries. Most people could use an App, Email or Text function on their phone to transmit daily data to Nielsen. It would be faster(and probably more accurate than diaries).

There is still processing and data verification time needed. The PPM is delivered two and a half weeks to three weeks after each weekly and monthly survey period has ended.

The eDiary is being rolled out. It will not speed up delivery until 100% of the universe has smartphones, including every member of every family.

The new system has also eliminated December. Perhaps that's why the AC stations flipped to Xmas on November 1.
In years past, the Fall Book didn't end until mid month...

December has not been eliminated. The December book always had a piece of November and a piece of December but now the hiatus matches the PPM. Ad buyers would rather not have the Christmas weeks in the book as they are not typical.

 

[tbolt909]

There is still processing and data verification time needed. The PPM is delivered two and a half weeks to three weeks after each weekly and monthly survey period has ended.

The eDiary is being rolled out. It will not speed up delivery until 100% of the universe has smartphones, including every member of every family.



December has not been eliminated. The December book always had a piece of November and a piece of December but now the hiatus matches the PPM. Ad buyers would rather not have the Christmas weeks in the book as they are not typical.

If December 4th through Jan 2nd is not rated, that is a virtual month long gap. The old system included half of December and was still in use last year. Nielsen could certainly come up with a cheap cell phone that they could give to listeners who are willing to participate...

 

[TheBigA]

If December 4th through Jan 2nd is not rated, that is a virtual month long gap. The old system included half of December and was still in use last year. Nielsen could certainly come up with a cheap cell phone that they could give to listeners who are willing to participate...

Earlier someone provided a link to the Nielsen site that shows ratings periods under Continuous Diary Measurement Survey:

http://www.arbitron.com/downloads/Survey_Schedule.pdf

It shows an overlap so data is gathered but not released until January.

 

[davideduardo]

If December 4th through Jan 2nd is not rated, that is a virtual month long gap. The old system included half of December and was still in use last year. Nielsen could certainly come up with a cheap cell phone that they could give to listeners who are willing to participate...

Smaller markets won't pay for that. It's cheaper to give the PPM devices to participants, and more accurate. But it involves at least a 60% increase in station subscription costs.

Even now, in diary markets, big operators like Cumulus don't need that many reports or such immediate release. There is no way they are going to pay for free cell phones and the like.

Advertisers don't want the "holiday" period in the data they use for the following year's buys. They actually like the new schedule better, as it reflects the audience levels that stations average month after month, not just during a number of year-end weeks. And ad agencies don't do much during that year-end period; the seasonal buys are placed and they are working on budgeting for the next year with the client, not placing buys. And the clients are looking at how their year is winding up to see how much to spend on marketing the next year.

You are looking for a solution to a problem that does not exist. In fact, the new schedules helps solve an old problem of having atypical weeks in the Fall book.