OFCOURSE I'M BROKE... I WORK IN RADIO.

[OKCRadioGuy]

Masochists?

For the life of me I can't imagine why anyone would want to get into the on-air side of this biz anymore. Those that still remain in it might be more explainable, but new folks getting into the biz is beyond me. I suppose the argument of trying McRadio for a while to get into the business and somehow landing a job in one of the smaller companies that still gives a crap might be valid for a select few. The luck of having that happen anymore is probably much worse than the odds in Las Vegas!

 

[ISaidSo]

Those people getting in now are the only hope you can have. They are the ones who will lead the way to bring radio back to the main stream. I think it already is on its way. The programmers are learning that the only hammer that radio has left is to be a local source, of News, music, sports, etc... Networks, and Sat service can't give you that. If you provide Good, innovative programming, and at the same time understand the need to use the internet, and other forms of media as a way to get your product out, and target the local market then I still believe that it is a viable, important part of everyday life. New talent that understands today’s listeners are the ones who will lead radio there. At least that is my hope….

 

[RADIO TRUTH]

Face reality!!!!!!!!!!!

Local radio is a dieing industry. Tests have just been concluded in parts of Hawaii for Wimax and the results were astounding. People could drive around in their cars and hear any radio station in the world on internet while driving. If you think that the pay and working conditions are lousy now in local radio.....in the words of Bachman Turner Overdrive, "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet". What do you think will happen to jobs and salaries in local radio when each local radio station loses most of its audience and revenue to the inevitable fragmentation that internet radio in cars will bring? When this happens, which will be in the near future, people will listen to radio the way they watch television. They will listen to their favorite programs and the station that broadcasts them will be irrelevant. In conclusion, Big Jay and all the people who are in the same boat as you, you will be on the beach for a long, long time or will work for peanuts just like circus elephants.

 

[busyradioguy]

Radio Truth,

You are aware that the RIAA and ASCAP et al are trying to kill Internet radio, right?

People have been saying terra radio will die, for decades. It hasn't happened and never will. You do know that when WCBS in New York flipped back to oldies that their first book showed they had a 3.7 share, right? Clearly all the disenfranchised listeners came back, and WCBS continues to do well. Those listeners could have gone to Ipods, sat radio and Internet radio, but obviously they didn’t.

 

[davideduardo]

Tests have just been concluded in parts of Hawaii for Wimax and the results were astounding. People could drive around in their cars and hear any radio station in the world on internet while driving.

First, this type of service will require a subscription. Satellite has barely managed to get around 5% of the population in nearly 9 years, and at generally only one of the three listening locations. Only about 30% of radio listening is in the car, so addtional subscriptions and WiMax devices will be needed.

The average age of a car in the US is 8.5 years. That means well over a decade to get in-car penetration to the same level as, let's say, cable penetration. And by that time, there will be some new technology that is thoroughly disruptive. And with experiences like BluRay, many consumers will wait a long time to adopt.

With the breakup of the Sprint and Clearwire association, and the unknown destiny of the VHF spectrum, there is by no means an "instant" WiMax system and there will be different bands and subsets. What one will I pick? I'm going to wait several years at least.

What do you think will happen to jobs and salaries in local radio when each local radio station loses most of its audience and revenue to the inevitable fragmentation that internet radio in cars will bring?

First, not all people will ever get this... if it has a cost. With the prospects of a flat or stagflation type economy for the next 3 to 5 years, lots of people will not spend on new technology . Again, 70% of listening is NOT in the car, and when in the car many people want local content along with whatever show they enjoy. Radio will react by adding the necessary elements to be competitive.

Of course, there are many non-viable stations today. In the top 100 markets, of about 1765 AMs only around 120 are truly viable (80% of the market has usable signal day and night) so loads of stations will go away or become ultra niche religious or ethnic broadcasters.

Of course, the real issue is that radio broadcasters will have most if not all of the content that will be distributed over new technologies, and will have all the advertising time to sell. Since WiMax is local and can even be tailored to parts of a metro, there are going to be all kinds of opportunities for localization and local addvertisers. Keep in mind that in smaller markets, like Traverse City NW Michigan, 95% of all ad revenue is local... so the stations in those places will just simulcast like FM did with AM decades ago.

When this happens, which will be in the near future, people will listen to radio the way they watch television. They will listen to their favorite programs and the station that broadcasts them will be irrelevant. In conclusion, Big Jay and all the people who are in the same boat as you, you will be on the beach for a long, long time or will work for peanuts just like circus elephants.

Interestingly, the last time that national level radio was successful was in the late 40's to early 50's before the TV freeze was lifted. While there are successful programs, there is no succuessful national station (via hundreds of repeaters) and there is a reason for this. For the moment, even on WiMax there will be at most a mix of some national or regional talent and mostly local shows.

The thing that changes is the delivery method, not the basic and successful content.
[/quote]

 

[txchipk]

Interestingly, the last time that national level radio was successful was in the late 40's to early 50's before the TV freeze was lifted. While there are successful programs, there is no succuessful national station (via hundreds of repeaters) and there is a reason for this. For the moment, even on WiMax there will be at most a mix of some national or regional talent and mostly local shows.

The thing that changes is the delivery method, not the basic and successful content.

I think the problem is "local" radio seems to be moving to national programming. Many country stations now run syndicated shows from 7PM-5AM (Lia, After MidNite, etc.). In many markets, the local urban AC is devoid of local content -- syndicated morning show (Joyner or Harvey), syndicated middays (Williams, etc.), syndicated afternoon drive (Baisden, etc.), syndicated "Quiet Storm"-type show (Keith Sweat, etc.). Entercom is now testing shows to run across its own hot AC and country outlets that basically will have no local DJ from 7PM-5AM. With a lot of stations running syndicated morning shows, "local", original programming on a growing list of stations is getting down to middays and PM drive.

 

[RADIO TRUTH]

In partial response to the above.....

WCBS-FM may be trying to hang in there but, is not doing great. WCBS-FM, at its peak, billed $43,000,000 per year. It now bills about $18,000,000 per year and will never do any better and with more fragmentation, will do worse.

As far as the RIAA trying to kill internet radio.....I doubt it will happen. As we speak, a bill called the Internet Radio Equality Act will be presented which will cap all internet radio royalties at 7.5% of gross revenue which is about what XM and Sirius pay in royalties.

I will be back later to address some of the things that David Eduardo said in response to my last post.

 

[busyradioguy]

What's your source of information about this so called bill?

I doubt it'll pass. The RIAA et al have shown they are a greedy bunch.

 

[busyradioguy]

I will be back later to address some of the things that David Eduardo said in response to my last post.

I've heard that one before. : If you're going to respond to several posts, why not do it at once. The teasers suggest you don't have an informed response, or any response at all for that matter.

 

[davideduardo]

WCBS-FM may be trying to hang in there but, is not doing great. WCBS-FM, at its peak, billed $43,000,000 per year. It now bills about $18,000,000 per year and will never do any better and with more fragmentation, will do worse.

The drop from the $30 million range to the teens had to do with the format switch to jack... which, despite its decent ratings performance, created a PR nightmare. I'd expect CBS FM to be back in the $30 million range soon. It will certainly improve over last year once it has the agency-friendly 4-book average numbers to support it.

 

[davideduardo]

I think the problem is "local" radio seems to be moving to national programming. Many country stations now run syndicated shows from 7PM-5AM (Lia, After MidNite, etc.). In many markets, the local urban AC is devoid of local content -- syndicated morning show (Joyner or Harvey), syndicated middays (Williams, etc.), syndicated afternoon drive (Baisden, etc.), syndicated "Quiet Storm"-type show (Keith Sweat, etc.). Entercom is now testing shows to run across its own hot AC and country outlets that basically will have no local DJ from 7PM-5AM. With a lot of stations running syndicated morning shows, "local", original programming on a growing list of stations is getting down to middays and PM drive.

Remember, running overnights began at least in a big part to avoid equipment failures at those long-gone 6 AM sign-ons. Overnights at best provides a small lead in to morning drive, and seldom produces revenue today for any station in the US. Heck, even back in the early 60's we had dozens of stations taking the Dolly Holliday beautiful music show in an ad hoc network.

7 - Midnight is pretty much a revenue dud... lots of n/c spots and such... and not much revenue. So, since the listening levels are about a third of daytime levels, it makes sense to try to do shows like Delilah that are ratings builders and expense savers. Long gone are the days when a station would spend a lot on evenings for the overall benefit good performance had on the total station.

And, if you look at mornings or any other daypart, you find exceptions but the majority of programming on viable (not brokered or paid religion) stations is still very local. And nearly all syndicated shows have optional windows for local content.

 

[busyradioguy]

In response to Radio Truth about the IREA:

This was very telling: http://www.savenetradio.org/press_room/press_releases/080515-comeback.pdf

The last paragraph that shows how much Sat / Cable radio bill, vs Internet Radio, is staggering. If this bill passes, only the wealthy web casters will survive. Streaming providers such as Live365 will probably go bust. Afterwards, we'll be left without a vast majority of independent Internet Radio broadcasters. The web casters, who carry on, will probably sound virtually identical with the corporate terrestrial radio we have today.

Some (weak) bill...

 

[little1]

And doesn't that last paragraph also make a mockery of the people who are on here talking about how radio is dead, that internet radio, etc are killing it, etc?

That may be, but look at the difference between internet radio and cable/sat radio billing. And then think about this- WBAP bills somewhere in the 25 million range. KSCS probably does 15. So Citadel stations JUST in Dallas make almost 1/3rd of what ALL internet radio stations in the country do. I don't remeber what the total market bills, but is it possible that one radio market (Dallas) outbills ALL internet radio stations in the country?

And isn't one of the advantages of radio from a marketing perspective that you have a pretty good idea who or what type of person is listening to your station? Internet radio won't be able to have the same info will it- they might know how many people they have, but will they be able to say 'x% of women age 18-34" etc...

 

[davideduardo]

And doesn't that last paragraph also make a mockery of the people who are on here talking about how
That may be, but look at the difference between internet radio and cable/sat radio billing. And then think about this- WBAP bills somewhere in the 25 million range. KSCS probably does 15. So Citadel stations JUST in Dallas make almost 1/3rd of what ALL internet radio stations in the country do. I don't remeber what the total market bills, but is it possible that one radio market (Dallas) outbills ALL internet radio stations in the country?

That is a terrific point...

Dallas MSA billing is around $415 million, a big number compared to internet or satellite billing.

What a number of folks miss is that there is a cost for alternate delivery, even if it is not ad sponsored. While those of us on this board already have computers and good connections, not everyone does and many Americans are excluded exonomically from thse new systems just based on cost.

 

[busyradioguy]

And doesn't that last paragraph also make a mockery of the people who are on here talking about how radio is dead, that internet radio, etc are killing it, etc?

Exactly. Terra radio has been, is and will continue to survive for generations to come.

 

[txchipk]

And, if you look at mornings or any other daypart, you find exceptions but the majority of programming on viable (not brokered or paid religion) stations is still very local.

In D/FW, not counting brokered or pair religious or non-comms or AM signals, we have KNOR, KLNO, KSOC, KEGL, KBFB, KFZO, KESN, KRNB, KHKS, KDXX, and KESS-FM all running morning shows that are syndicated or networked to other stations owned by the group owner...

 

[eliseatheduck]

I find it amusing the corporate "spinologists" can make manure potpourri. They will never ever admit radio of the last ten years to today has been on a slow viking funeral. The corporate reg vps ,insultants,the Pds who follow the the leaders from HQ will do their best to be cheerleaders claiming radio is better than it ever was, and more money is coming in. Well when you increase commercial time naturally money rolls in, but the quality goes down. No one cares as long as they can still get money for themselves. Its like Nero fiddling while Rome burned and the grasshopper playing while the ants worked to prepare for the worse.
I know I'll have the resident spindoctor and his apprentice take issue with what I just said. When you go with blinders on,it is to be expected.

 

[txchipk]

And doesn't that last paragraph also make a mockery of the people who are on here talking about how radio is dead, that internet radio, etc are killing it, etc?

Exactly. Terra radio has been, is and will continue to survive for generations to come.

Or not...there is no telling what changes will come in 20, 40, or 60 years from now. It's often what you don't forsee coming that derails an industry (i.e. household PCs affect on typewriter sales; digital cameras on the sale of film; the Internet on newspapers, book stores, travel agencies, etc.).

I don't think radio is going to disappear anytime soon, but who knows what affect technology will have. 30 years ago, I'm sure the typical newspaper and broadcast TV news employee felt secure that there will always be local newspapers and local TV. Today, their importance is greatly diminished compared to back then. In the May sweeps that just concluded, on an average night, only 27% of TV homes were turned on and tuned into KDFW, KXAS, WFAA, or KTVT's 10PM news. The Times Herald has gone under, and the Morning News is losing circulation at a rapid rate. Certainly, cable in the 1980s, and direct broadcast satellite in the mid-1990s have fueled the growth of all sorts of TV channels to compete against local channels. I'm not sure we know about satellite radio yet...cable started becoming a choice 20 years before XM or Sirius started in 2001/2002; DirecTV (1994) also has a 7 year start on XM.

 

[busyradioguy]

Well they claimed TV would kill; radio, and that didn't happen. 8 Tracks and Cassettes sure didn't. I don't forsee Ipods killing radio either. And forget about XM or Sirius killing radio. The only way that could possvibly happen is if it was FREE to listen to.

That's one of the major advantages terrestrial radio has had, and will likely continue to have for generations to come.

Look at how many radios are on the market.

I'm not saying terrestrial radio of today is perfect, either. But I believe the industry will turn around and terra will increase in popularity again. It may not be this year, next year or even the next five years. But it will happen.

 

[davideduardo]

In D/FW, not counting brokered or pair religious or non-comms or AM signals, we have KNOR, KLNO, KSOC, KEGL, KBFB, KFZO, KESN, KRNB, KHKS, KDXX, and KESS-FM all running morning shows that are syndicated or networked to other stations owned by the group owner...

11 out of 30 viable FM signals means the vast majority is local.