Possible Format Change At KOAS Las Vegas

[majaman78]

It was reported in Inside Radio yesterday that the Country format is skewing older, in the 45-54 range. Are we now to assume that, like Smooth Jazz, Country music will eventually be consigned to the format scrap heap and that we'll see Country stations all across the U.S. frantically flip away to some other format?

Or will agencies and the radio industry get a clue and realize that demographics as it relates to age is meaningless.

Country stations will make efforts to lower the ages of the listeners so that the advertisers who tell their agencies what ages to buy will continute to buy them.

It is making owners take fewer chances and radio formats more generic in general

It's already happening.

Terrestrial will become an info-only format, i.e. talk, all sports, emergency bands, etc. FM will morph into what AM has become.

In Boston MA, WEEI AM has already switched a various number of FM outlets all over New England to simulcast it's all sports format, taking down a number of great music stations like WAAF in Worcester MA. In fact on my drives throughout the whole country, I'm hearing more talk/sports on FM, something unheard of even 10 years ago.

The only music that you will hear will be from some inner-city urban format outlets catering to the less affluent, similar to analog TV (now digital).

We'll see how excited ad execs get over those offerings.

 

[davideduardo]

(By the way, if you don't know what Chris if refering to, Hispanic and Urban diarys in Arbitron's old methodology are weighed heavier than other diaries. In other words, one diary counts more, which I believe was a vital reason for the urban vocal slant of smooth jazz stations.)

Wrong.

I'm answering this paragraph separately because it perpetuates an uban legend / misinterpretation and since there are still around 250 diary markets.... and will be for the immediate future... propagating this kind of misinformation needs to stop.

The diary is, in theory, a random probability sample. When well designed, the sample will represent the universe and every subset of the univers in proportion to the size of each component.

So, in reality there is no such thing as a perfect sample of this kind. Thus, weighting has to be applied to make the sample proportional by math. The simplest example would be a market that is 50% male and 50% female, but the diaries come back 60% male and 40% female. Weighting multiplies every female diary by 1.25 and every male diary by .825 and we end up with a sample that gives equal weight to men and women, even though we did not get equal returns.

Every Arbitron "book" has a table that shows each group... men, women, 18-24, 18-24 men, etc. and the percentage each group represents in the population per the latest Claritas projections. Then it shows the ´percent of diaries returned, and how much weighting up or down each one is subject to to make the sample a perfect representation of the market.

There was and is as much down weighting of Hispanic diaries as there is up weighting, and the proportions may vary from book to book, given the vicissitudes of sample recruit and return of diaries.

There is no procedure in place and never has been one that routinely overweighted any demo. The statement that such a thing exists is totally false. As usual, this type of lie is propagated by people who are either looking for excuses or who don't understand radio ratings and won't take the time to read the description of methodology at the Arbitron website.

 

[Carmine5]

Bill/C5,

We are teetering on a subject matter that is bound to draw an old friend out of the woodwork . Oh no, TOO LATE!!!! ;D I agree with both of you, BTW. Internet programmers and those not under the control of the gorilla have gotten the message, as have syndicated guys like Ted Hasiuk, Mark Stanley, and Bill. I do believe we can turn this format around, but it is going to take time, as well as a commitment to new and innovative marketing strategies.

Chris

Ah, yes I forgot about the old pontificating padre of radio who traverses the length and breadth of these boards, waiting to rain his wisdom down on any discussion that piques his interest and extinguish it. :

 

[davideduardo]

And then why didn't smooth jazz stations try to make the same adjustment as country is doing?

I did not say country radio "is doing" that... I said they will eventually have to, if they want to keep billing strongly.

Maybe those who controlled the direction just missed the boat and what they are attempting to do now is too little and way too late.

Well, we have had all kinds of different attempts, including Frank Cody's Blu, which failed in NM to Emmis' CD 101.9 which failed with the chill direction in New York. Nobody has made any progress on making the format demographically attractive to advertisers... and today we saw The Wave in LA sink to a new low, an occurance that will of course spike rumors of new directions there, too.

As always David, you offer nothing new to the discussion and if you could, please refrain yourself from always trying to educate the heathen.

Precisely because of the massive amount of incorrect information on this part of the board I could never hope to introduce any new ideas because the parallel reality here would go off on silliness like the assertion that ad agencies picked the demos of ad buys... and not the client.

"Heathen" is not the word I would use, but if it works for you... wear it.

I don't mind being hipped to the facts but I do mind being talked down to.

Then stop posting nonsense and misinformation, such as the statement about Black and Hispanic diaries counting more. If every one of your posts contains significant errors, anything anyone who knew better could say would seem like "talking down" to you.

“The PPM methodology is ‘drive-by’ listening, coming at the expense of all the special P1-loyal stations.” Thoughts from Seattle-based major-market PD and consultant Chris Mays, ahead of today’s House Oversight Committee grilling of Arbitron over the People Meter’s effect on minority stations and listeners. Chris emails me to say “While I am sympathetic to the plight of Hispanic and Urban stations, it seems to me that they have had a slightly unfair advantage over the years with the diary methodology. Their loyal fans were able to ‘vote’ with their pens in a way that may or may not have accurately reflected listening.” But Chris says there’s a larger story. “The PPM methodology is affecting radio in a bigger way. It is ‘drive-by’ listening, which moves the stations that are very few peoples’ P1 stations, but everyone’s P2 or P3 station, to the top. This is coming at the expense of all special P1-loyal stations. The most generic, cume-friendly stations are rising, while the stations based on loyal fans are falling. This includes AAA in most markets. And Smooth Jazz.” She says “This is sad. It is making owners take fewer chances and radio formats more generic in general.”

At my Arbitron "Partnership for Radio Engagement" meeting yesterday, over dinner one of the broadcasters (the committee is half broadcast, half agency folks) commented that the PPM with its moment to moment measurement revealed in many cases that our stations were not as good as we thought they were. In the diary, recall was also measured and good marketing covered up many a bad station. In the PPM, the meter can't hide bad radio.

Formats that have passionate followers but low cume don't do well in the PPM... thus the lower performance of AAA. What the PPM methodology does is show that people listen to more stations than they wrote in diaries, so that listening makes the former "big" stations a bit smaller and the secondary stations a bit bigger, and that is the product of passive measurement.

It's not what this PD thinks that generic stations win... it's that stations designed for boad appeal do better than ones that just can't attract lots of cumers. Unfortunately for him, he is with a format that just can't benefit from the secondary but strong cume that just didn't get credit in the diary.

So, we have an aging audience that does not appeal to advertisers (which advertisers?),

All advertisers capable of buying time on major market stations. There are essentially no buys for 55+, and everything is focused on 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 and the subsets of those demos.

huge trouble with the ratings system

As was stated by the most vocal critic of the PPM yesterday in the congressional hearing, the PPM has some issues, but all are fixable.

And there are still those 250 diary markets that are all accredited.

Smooth jazz still has the ability to take a smaller audience and make it profitable. That's the way it started out and that's the way it will be done again.

Gee, CBS in La has managed to put 3 stations in the top 5 in 18-49, but they can't seem to fix the downward trending smooth jazz station. They obviously know how to make it happen, but can't work that magic on the one format they have that is dropping.

 

[davideduardo]

Ah, yes I forgot about the old pontificating padre of radio who traverses the length and breadth of these boards, waiting to rain his wisdom down on any discussion that piques his interest and extinguish it. :

... but only when someone makes a really wrong or inaccurate statement, like that knee-slapper about radio and agencies setting the demos of ad buys.

 

[Bill Harmonic]

Ah, yes I forgot about the old pontificating padre of radio who traverses the length and breadth of these boards, waiting to rain his wisdom down on any discussion that piques his interest and extinguish it.  :

... but only when someone makes a really wrong or inaccurate statement, like that knee-slapper about radio and agencies setting the demos of ad buys.

Ah David...according to you everyone who writes here is wrong and inaccurate. Carmine5 said it best above. I've met a few in my travels but I have to admit you take the cake. All that knowledge you could bring to the table yet you insist on giving us your insight about what has been done and not where we can look for answers. That's why you're part of the problem and not part of the solution. Why don't you use your wisdom to shine a light on where the future could be for this music? If you dont' think it's going to work then why do you keep coming back? If you think we're all morons then why do you care? I would think a busy man like you would have better things to do. Oh that's right, all those plane flights. All I ever asked you to do is to move forward but I don't think that's possible. That may be to much but I can hope that things change. I for one would love to see what you might come up with. I'm not holding my breath but go ahead and surprise me. It would be an excellent change of pace and I think the others who post here would also find it refreshing.

 

[majaman78]

Ah, yes I forgot about the old pontificating padre of radio who traverses the length and breadth of these boards, waiting to rain his wisdom down on any discussion that piques his interest and extinguish it. :

... but only when someone makes a really wrong or inaccurate statement, like that knee-slapper about radio and agencies setting the demos of ad buys.

All that knowledge you could bring to the table yet you insist on giving us your insight about what has been done and not where we can look for answers. That's why you're part of the problem and not part of the solution. Why don't you use your wisdom to shine a light on where the future could be for this music? If you dont' think it's going to work then why do you keep coming back? If you think we're all morons then why do you care? I would think a busy man like you would have better things to do. Oh that's right, all those plane flights. All I ever asked you to do is to move forward but I don't think that's possible. That may be to much but I can hope that things change. I for one would love to see what you might come up with. I'm not holding my breath but go ahead and surprise me. It would be an excellent change of pace and I think the others who post here would also find it refreshing.

This way of thinking parallels EXACTLY my experience with newspaper execs some 15 years ago with their condescending attitudes and arrogance.

Wonder how they're doing these days?

 

[AnotherCat]

The new world is about serving the "Tribe" and the "Tribe" is heading to new hills to connect. Smooth jazz still has the ability to take a smaller audience and make it profitable. That's the way it started out and that's the way it will be done again.

I have seen too much evidence that this music can draw in a whole new fan base without having to resort to gimmicks (chill, R&B oldies, etc). Catch is that it needs to have the vibe in studio and on air that it has onstage..which means energy, variety of tempos and textures, entertaiment, and fun. The presentation over the years has always been stodgy and formal and the music has gone from slower to slowest. Spice it up and it becomes viable 35-44. These people weren't even 10 years old when staples like "100 Ways" and "Baby Come To Me" came out..might be time to think about putting some of the moldy oldies to rest.

 

[Carmine5]

Ah, yes I forgot about the old pontificating padre of radio who traverses the length and breadth of these boards, waiting to rain his wisdom down on any discussion that piques his interest and extinguish it. :

... but only when someone makes a really wrong or inaccurate statement, like that knee-slapper about radio and agencies setting the demos of ad buys.

That isn't exactly what I said. True, I erroneously used the term agencies instead of advertisers but I also said that they chase younger demos not that they 'set the demos of ad buys.'

 

[davideduardo]

That isn't exactly what I said. True, I erroneously used the term agencies instead of advertisers but I also said that they chase younger demos not that they 'set the demos of ad buys.'

Agencies don't "chase" anything. They, simply, create ad and marketing campaigns, decide on the media mix to be used toghether with the client, and then buy at the best price possible the stations that deliver the desired reach and frequency in each market within the client demo.

But you gave it a nice try, I have to admit.

 

[Jay F]

It was reported in Inside Radio yesterday that the Country format is skewing older, in the 45-54 range. Are we now to assume that, like Smooth Jazz, Country music will eventually be consigned to the format scrap heap and that we'll see Country stations all across the U.S. frantically flip away to some other format?

Or will agencies and the radio industry get a clue and realize that demographics as it relates to age is meaningless.

If the Country audience continues to age the format will eventually experience the problems Smooth Jazz is having now. Bill brought up some young hot conntry artists yet the ironic thing is the demos aren't getting younger. If Country would shift even younger musically they risk losing the 45-54 core they have now and not picking up equal numbers of younger listeners who have many other format options to choose from. This would be a good discusion for the country board. Besdies aging, Smooth jazz is having trouble because it is a TSL based format in a cume friendly PPM world.

 

[Carmine5]

It was reported in Inside Radio yesterday that the Country format is skewing older, in the 45-54 range. Are we now to assume that, like Smooth Jazz, Country music will eventually be consigned to the format scrap heap and that we'll see Country stations all across the U.S. frantically flip away to some other format?

Or will agencies and the radio industry get a clue and realize that demographics as it relates to age is meaningless.

If the Country audience continues to age the format will eventually experience the problems Smooth Jazz is having now. Bill brought up some young hot conntry artists yet the ironic thing is the demos aren't getting younger. If Country would shift even younger musically they risk losing the 45-54 core they have now and not picking up equal numbers of younger listeners who have many other format options to choose from. This would be a good discusion for the country board. Besdies aging, Smooth jazz is having trouble because it is a TSL based format in a cume friendly PPM world.

These are good points and there is certainly a risk in losing the one audience while trying to gain the other.

I was thinking too that Country stations haven't just recently started ditching George Jones for younger artists. Faith Hill, for example, was getting airplay almost from the start of her career and she's been around for years. Taylor Swift might draw younger listeners but I'm thinking that there is also a stigma associated with Country music which makes it undesirable to younger demos.

Many years ago, I had a conversation with Wayne Henderson of "The Crusaders" about the dropping of the word "jazz" in their name. He stated plainly that most young people were turned off by jazz and that if they were going to stay viable as a group they would have to change their name and sound. It was a risk because the group had a large base of hardcore (albeit older) jazz fans. Mr. Henderson said that Miles Davis accused The Crusaders of becoming "a bunch of rock & rollers" and they lost some fans during the change (which began with the album, "Old Socks, New Shoes"). But overall the risk paid off and The Crusaders went on to have a number of hits through the 70's and 80's including, "Street Life."

I know we've had this conversation ad nauseum but if many young people today are just as turned off by jazz as they were in the 70's then a beginning for a recovery of the Smooth Jazz format might be to ditch the word 'jazz' along with new blood producing new music (which is occurring already).

C5