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PREDICTION

C

canyouhearmenow

Here's a prediction: If there is no NFL lockout and the season resumes, I predict the following:

- Clear Channel will move the programming of KLSD over to 95.7. And 1360 will be used for either brokered programming a la AM 1000 or AM 1700, or it will be licensed to a foreign language operator.

Here are the reasons why...

Clear Channel has the rights to the Chargers. If there are 2 sports stations in town it is much better to have football than baseball. The Padres are a huge money loser for 1090 because of a horrible contract that John Lynch signed, but even more to the point, baseball moves too slow and it is basically your grandfather's past time. You could win the sports talk battle in town by having talk shows talk about the Chargers throughout the week. Surely Clear Channel would need to bring on some better hosts, but that could easily happen. Besides Rock 105 could still interface with the Chargers with morning show interviews with the players throughout the week just as they have done for years, they just wouldn't carry the live game. The Chargers wouldn't mind because they would have 2 FMs pumping them. Meanwhile the hardcore Chargers fans would tune into 95.7 all week long throughout the day. Maybe some of the top hosts from 1090 would cross the street and work for this new FM sports powerhouse, and let 1090 stagnate in its boring Padres juice. Scott and BR and Hacksaw are the best, and I'll bet they would make the jump to the new FM sports powerhouse as soon as they could.

This move would not cost Clear Channel anything since the sports station is already up and running. I am sure Jim Rome is not happy that his show is getting stinker ratings because its on a station with a horrible signal and he is followed by mediocre talent. Plus Clear Channel could actually make money by brokering out shows for $200 or $300/hour. They could just steal everyone on AM 1000. Or they could just collect a fee from a religious or foreign language broadcaster. That station is worthless as it is.

You could argue that Clear Channel will keep 95.7 because they are relying on voice-tracked shows from out of town talent and it doesn't cost them much at all. That is true, but this is an FM signal and they are wasting it by using it as a spoiler, throwing in spots on 95.7 to advertisers if they buy on other Clear Channel stations. But they spent too much on 95.7 to just use it as a spoiler. 1090 is doing well with exclusive advertisers who buy just 1090. These people could be wooed over to 95.7.
I maintain you could knock 1090 over with a feather and take most of the business if you offered them the Chargers on FM AND some of the 1090 talent.

If there is no NFL in 2011, then it would seem much more sense to keep 95.7 in country. The downside of all this for Clear Channel is that this would allow KSON to become a consistent Top 3 or 4 25-54, and CC clearly would not want that.

Of course the other variable is that the Chargers may be leaving SD after this year. That, of course would change everything.
 
Not discounting the prediction; but technically, Rock 105.3 is the home of the Chargers. KUSS is makin' money.

However, this is radio!
 
Hey Chris listen to KUSS' commercial load if its making money then its like 5 or 10 dollars a month. Turning 95.7 into a sports station would be a great move, but before you take the Chargers off of 105.3, the chargers may not allow that! The contract is for being on KIOZ 105.3, which is a far better signal than 95.7. KUSS is very directional, and doesnt really get into East County real well. The building penetration in south bay is almost non existent.

Plus the Chargers are on a high rated station for the demo they are trying to reach. Even if you move the programming off of 1360 to 95.7 you may get a 1.0 boost, but in the demo Rock will do better and get the games and sponsors out to the desired audience!
 
As I said, Rock 105 could still do all it does throughout the week with the Chargers as far as player interviews etc. They can still position themselves as the home of Chargers while saying at the same time people could listen to them live on our sister station. This way the Chargers get 2 FM stations instead of just one. I would guess 98 per cent of the Charger fans who aren't at the game are watching them on TV, and the other 2 get it from radio. In other words, its the sizzle around the Chargers that's more important than the actual live game. Meanwhile 95.7 which is the actual home of the live broadcast can build its audience during the week with call-in talk, putting themselves at a huge advantage ovrt 1090.
KUSS is making squat for income. But on the other hand it is running on a shoe string. But I ask you, is that a smart way to run a major market FM signal? It seems like a weak, cheap and easy way to just get by. KLSD as a sports station may just be Clear Channel's biggest major market flounder.
 
Two other variables:
I estimated that 98 per cent of chargers fans are watching TV, while 2 per cent are listening on the radio. That may have changed with the blackouts we had last year, meaning the radio broadcasts of the games were more important. So the better 105.3 signal may be a factor, although I don't think 95.7 is that much inferior.

On the other hand...If Clear Channel is licking its chops about stealing away 1090's thunder, ratings and ad income, they may look at hapless Jack Evans who runs 1090 and think dismantling 1090 would be like taking candy from a baby. 1090's talent I'm sure could easily be lured away. Jack is just not that formidable of a competitor.
 
For the subject of 1090 "talent". KLSD had Hacksaw, and the ratings were miserable and so was his attitude. The only thing bigger than his ego is Jerry of Jeff and Jer.

For those who dont remember an off-shoot station in San Diego designed to compete with KyXy, and was known as KJOY 94.1 Soft and Easy. As you probably know that at that time KJQY was the only 100kw station licensed to San Diego (it has since downgraded to 77KW). Jacor/CC put some initial effort into it, but after the CC take over it was ran EXTREMELY cheap! For the most part KJQY was the first station that sorta voice tracked Dianna Vincent would record her breaks in a book on reel to reel then we would load them into the shortcut and fix her mistakes LOL.

When CC took over they dumped Dave McKay the PD, shortly thereafter Gene Knight left for KyXy along with our midday board op. Dave Mason was brought in to kill, I mean fix the station. KJOY could have worked had CC continued to invest in it and haev some real promotions not just listener lunches. They also needed better tv commercials and bill boards it all looked like an ad for Easter year round.

Once CC gives up on a station they basically let run till the station is out of money then change
 
I have no clue what your point is re KJQY. If anyone could help decode or decipher, please help.

Anyway, 1090 now employs Hacksaw and 1090 is now killing KLSD in the ratings. In fact, among male listeners, 1090 is outperforming some FM stations in some dayparts and that is just not supposed to happen. And its been that way for a couple years now. The fact that you may not like Hacksaw is fine, but this on-air lineup that John Lynch assembled is pretty darn strong even though they don't have the Chargers. Can anybody deny that?
 
I am trying to explain to you how CC works and using KJOY as an example of what to expect. They will slim down the staff to zero then when it still wont make money they will blow up the station like they did KJOY. Instead of getting people in there that could fix it and gettting decent on-air talent they limp along.
 
it's amusing how all you bloggers go on and on about 12-plus numbers when the reality is everyone who matters only cares about 25-54 or 18-34. The fact is, you people are out of the loop, and you want to pontificate as if you matter. How bloody silly you all are.
 
Only 6+ numbers (with PPM) are the only numbers that can be published. The rest of the breakouts are not for the public. I agree your 25-54 reality. That's the folks with the $$$ to share with advertisers.
 
12+ can generally tell you though if the station is dying or doing ok. I know that you cant sell the 12+ numbers. But it is interesting to look at.
 
Interesting that no one on this board brought up the big radio article in the U-T yesterday. Why do I get the impression that either A/none of you live in San Diego, or B/none of you get out much or C/both. At any rate, the UT did a piece on sports radio where they ranked each show (both local and syndicated) that is carried on the local airwaves. They had cartoon heads of all the local hosts...they even put Scott and Billy Ray's characters on the top of A-1 (the actual piece took up most of the front page of the sports section). Any way, the writer ranked each show, giving five microphones to the best and 1 to the worst. He gave Hacksaw 0. Which of course gave Hacksaw two days of great radio rebuttal. Hacksaw nailed it when he pointed out that his station is killing it ratings while the U-T has dropped 36 per cent in circulation in three years. And he deftly pointed out that the newspaper writer could not even figure out that Clear Channel's sports station gets less than 1/4 the ratings that 1090 does. And that 1090 is a formidable competitor with men against big FM stations. This is a huge part of the article and the writer Don Norcross ignored it. How weak is that? Although Hacksaw lives up to his name (he is a hack in every sense of he word), he really does do good radio. This piece made him into a folk hero and a martyr. The funniest line in the whole piece however was where Norcross borrowed a quote from someone else who said John Kentera has no problems with the X's and O's. It's the other 24 letters in the alphabet he struggles with. Great stuff. Too bad Norcross didn't have any good lines of his own.
Keep in mind that while 1090 deserves every accolade it gets, this team was put together by John Lynch and not by Jack Evans, an out-of-work ex-Clear Channel exec who was unemployed when Lynch brought him into the building. Evans has nothing to do with the success of 1090.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
Interesting that no one on this board brought up the big radio article in the U-T yesterday.
Click to expand...

I don't get the paper anymore. Do you have a link to the article?
 
canyouhearmenow said:
Interesting that no one on this board brought up the big radio article in the U-T yesterday.
Click to expand...

Probable answer: The UT has a circulation of under 250,000 now, in a market of 3.1 million. Most people don't read it, particularly those under 45 or 50.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
Does anybody on this board have anything to do with radio?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure all of us own at least one...
 
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