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PREDICTION

canyouhearmenow said:
Interesting that no one on this board brought up the big radio article in the U-T yesterday. Why do I get the impression that either A/none of you live in San Diego, or B/none of you get out much or C/both. At any rate, the UT did a piece on sports radio where they ranked each show (both local and syndicated) that is carried on the local airwaves. They had cartoon heads of all the local hosts...they even put Scott and Billy Ray's characters on the top of A-1 (the actual piece took up most of the front page of the sports section). Any way, the writer ranked each show, giving five microphones to the best and 1 to the worst. He gave Hacksaw 0. Which of course gave Hacksaw two days of great radio rebuttal. Hacksaw nailed it when he pointed out that his station is killing it ratings while the U-T has dropped 36 per cent in circulation in three years. And he deftly pointed out that the newspaper writer could not even figure out that Clear Channel's sports station gets less than 1/4 the ratings that 1090 does. And that 1090 is a formidable competitor with men against big FM stations. This is a huge part of the article and the writer Don Norcross ignored it. How weak is that? Although Hacksaw lives up to his name (he is a hack in every sense of he word), he really does do good radio. This piece made him into a folk hero and a martyr. The funniest line in the whole piece however was where Norcross borrowed a quote from someone else who said John Kentera has no problems with the X's and O's. It's the other 24 letters in the alphabet he struggles with. Great stuff. Too bad Norcross didn't have any good lines of his own.
Keep in mind that while 1090 deserves every accolade it gets, this team was put together by John Lynch and not by Jack Evans, an out-of-work ex-Clear Channel exec who was unemployed when Lynch brought him into the building. Evans has nothing to do with the success of 1090.

Evans came in and has moved folks around and nearly doubled the ratings year-to-year on 1090. It is up dramatically over the last 12-18 months. By the way, if you know anything about radio, it's a lot like sports, you can have a good team but you need a good each. Lynch assembled a good team and then hired a great coach in Evans to oversee it.
 
Dear Jack...err...I mean researcher.
First, what do you mean by this sentence: "...you can have a good team but you need a good each." Huh? You need a good each. Wow! To each his own I guess.
Anyway, the only thing Evans did and I think he did it while Lynch was still there, was that when Rome left they put Hacksaw on middays and the other guy on in the afternoon. Evans has done nothing to promote XX 1090. The U-T article was a huge kiss to 1090, but that's because of the content of Hacksaw and Scott/BR who were there for years before Evans and who are now at the top of their game, independent of Evans. 1090 is on fire but they've been doing well for 2 years now. There is a new GM at 1090/Walrus. Let's see what happens long term with Mr. Evans at 1090. This morning's Scott/BR show with the Aztecs and the lockout, and Scott's humor clearly showed me that this is the best morning show in SD right now.
 
UPDATED PREDICTION...
It now possible that there may be no NFL season this year. It now seems to me that it would be likely that KLSD's sports format would be moved to 95.7 ONLY if they can steal away Scott & BR and Hacksaw. That would decimate 1090, thereby making it a non player, and all the solid advertisers that are with 1090 now I'm sure would be happy to move their ad dollars over to FM. 1090 would be stuck with the Padres which is a huge money loser any way (even though this is the last year of that horrendous contract). And then when the NFL comes back, Clear Channel would be in a great position to announce that it now has two flagship stations to connect with the Chargers: Rock 105 which will continue to interview the players and coaches in the morning, and 95.7 which will carry the live game on Sunday and talk about the Chargers all day and all week long. It is just too obvious that 1360 is a shot-out, worthless frequency, and that Clear Channel should either make this move or get out of sports entirely, IF they figure that it is better for them financially to keep San Diego's second place "also ran" country station on that 95.7. In other words, I predict that it will either be either very, very good or very, very bad for 1090 this year. If Clear Channel can not steal away 1090's talent, it doesn't seem to make any sense for them to stay in sports, either on 1360 or on 95.7. It seems to me that 1090 with its current lineup would even beat 95.7 if it went sports.
Sidenote: there are only a handful of Southern California AM stations that are flourishing in 2011. That would be 1090, KNX, KFI and KOGO. Twenty years ago, KABC, KSDO, KFWB, KMPC and even KCEO were solid and making money.
Sidenote No 2: In the 60s and 70s the 2 big stations in town were 1360 and 1170. (600 and 760 were always in 3rd and 4th place) Today both 1360 and 1170 are of no consequence. Sad.
 
One last point to ponder...
IF Scott/BR and Hacksaw were to contemplate moving from AM to FM, the obvious benefit would be to get on a superior sounding frequency that isn't foreign to those under 40. The other issue may also be that they no longer have to put up with those Mexican PSA's. Those things are torture.
QUESTION: (as Hacksaw would say) Do people get used to those PSA's or not?
 
A few thoughts...

--Baseball on the radio is still a big draw. Even if 1090 negotiated a bad deal with the Padres, having the flagship rights to a major league baseball team is very important for a successful Sports station.

--KIOZ's ratings have sunk pretty low. It is not inconceivable that Clear Channel could take a gamble and make 105.3 a Sports station. CC could move KLSD's local sports shows to 105.3 and move KIOZ's Rock format to 95.7. That would mean the Chargers would still be on 105.3 according to their contract.

--I'm sure ESPN is not happy being on 1700 and getting such bad ratings in San Diego. Perhaps ESPN and not Fox could be the back-up network (late nights and weekends) for a SportsRadio 105.3. Fox Sports could stay on 1360 (or maybe the station could return to Progressive Talk where the ratings were better than Sports).

--Let's remember that the Rock format on KIOZ was moved once before. Wasn't it originally on 102.1, hence the call letters, where the Z represents a 2?

--These are just some speculations, not predictions. Maybe CC is happy with the way things are. But with KIOZ ranked #20 and KUSS ranked #21, someone at CC might see the potential for an FM Sports station in SD.

Gregg
[email protected]
 
re: --Let's remember that the Rock format on KIOZ was moved once before. Wasn't it originally on 102.1, hence the call letters, where the Z represents a 2?

Yes. It was on 102.1, then licensed to Oceanside and its transmitter pumping out an astounding 10kw from North County. IOZ resembles 102. Par Broadcasting owned the 102.1. In a deal with Compass (very complex, so I'll simplify), Compass got the 102.1 transmitter and Par (now Clear Channel) got the 105.3 transmitter, and the formats were swapped.

Shameful that there are so few AM stations making it nowadays compared to the 1980s.
 
[EDIT]

Absolutely KIOZ was created out of 102. It was conceived by PD Greg Stevens. Good call!

Baseball on the radio is a big draw....hmmmm....not so sure that's true. Clear Channel was happy to unload the Padres when it could. Not sure what data you are using to substantiate baseball has good ratings.

KIOZ is 20 and KUSS is 21 overall. But until recently KIOZ did well with men, and KUSS is good for Clear Channel to ads on their other stations. However, you are right...KLSD, KIOZ and KUSS are all three underperforming. That is 3 out of 7 of CC San Diego stations or 42 per cent of their local holdings and that does not look good for their bottom line. KLSD is a complete waste. A big rat hole to pour money down into. You may be on to something that KIOZ would be the right station for sports, since KIOZ has a 5-person morning show and other live people throughout the day and they could cut them and just save money and move on. That DOES seem like the Clear Channel way. I just think KUSS is a bigger nothing than KIOZ. But you may be right.

ESPN has no say on anything.



[EDIT-disruptive content]
 
Gregg - Re: your thought that CC may put sports on KIOZ....I'm sure you know that the only rock station in Portland just dropped music completely and is now a simulcast news/talk station. It carries the same signal as its AM sister station.

Plus, it should be noted that we have an over-abundance of modern rock stations in San Diego. I'm sure that San Diego has more than any other market with 2 alternatives (91X, 94/9,) a rocker (KIOZ) PLUS you need to add KPRI(AAA) and Sophie (modern AC). What other market has that many? LA, for instance, has two alternatives but no rock stations and no AAA's or modern AC. San Francisco has its Sophie (Alice) and a KPRI (KFOG) but no rock stations and only one alternative. Phoenix has no alternative stations and we have 2.

Some will tell you there are just too many rock stations in SD. But the question then arises, what are the format holes? As I see it, for the FM band, that would be FM-Talk (not too many of those left in the country however...it's hard without Stern), Sports (most markets now have a sports FM) or News talk (We just gained another FM going news/talk this week in Portland). And as I said before, Clear Channel likes to fire whole bunches of people any chance they get. And KIOZ has a lot of on-air talent.

IF KIOZ continues to stink in the ratings (and the NFL lockout will only hurt them) It might be KIOZ that gets its chair pulled out from under it in this game of musical chairs.It used to be 91X was thought to be the one that would that would go away. It's killing it now so I doubt that. There is still talk that 94/9 may go through some radical shift. But no one really mentioned KIOZ. But maybe this will be the year KIOZ benches Jim Morrison and brings in Jim Rome.
 
New arbitrons show that KLSD is still a dismal failure....but the numbers also show that 1090 took a big hit 12-plus, losing about a third of its audience in one month. I happen to think that station is on fire and they just got dealt an unfair hand. Nevertheless it is what it is. Regarding my conditional prediction that CC would move its sports station currently on 1360 onto one of its FM stations if the NFL came back: we still don't know what's up with the NFL. And these lower ratings for 1090 don't seem to help boost my prediction that CC would put a sports station on FM to take away some juice from 1090.

Plus, KUSS seems to be doing better....and it is doing so with no full time local staff. As wrong as that may to those of us who love radio, its a hard reality to argue against if you are a numbers cruncher.

On the other hand KIOZ is not doing very well at all. They've been tanking ratings wise for 2 months now. And there are a lot of full-time bodies at KIOZ which does not seem to be in sync with the Clear Channel way of doing things.

It's too bad 1090 doesn't have a more capable PD who could generate some much needed promo juice for that station. 1090 is operated by a small, independent company owned by the Viejas tribe which is not known for its broadcasting acumen. They need a competent, dialed-in leader to pump that station up. Too bad they don't have it. Maybe they will soon.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
...owned by the Viejas tribe which is not known for its broadcasting acumen.

You could say the same thing about Clear Channel.

Viejas Enterprises is actually one the better-operated businesses in San Diego County and tribal leaders are not sitting around making programming decisions, but based on what we've seen from so many alleged radio pros, maybe they'd do better at it.
 
I'm not saying Viejas shouldn't or couldn't run radio stations. AllI'm saying is when Budweiser distributor mogul Leon Parma owned radio stations, he was smart enough to hire the best people to run them. I'm only suggesting Viejas could be be doing better than Jack Evans.
 
Morning host Cindy Spicer was just named PD as KUSS. I think she is the only live and local person on the air there. If KUSS was going to drop country for sports, I don't think this would have happened. So if the prediction that CC would put its sports station on an FM signal, it now looks like that station would be KIOZ, which is now 3rd of three modern rock stations. And with five people in the morning, and a live mid-day and afternoon DJ. That's seven salaries Clear Channel could eliminate which is exactly how they like to do business.

KUSS meanwhile has a lean and staff (meaning its just Cindy Spicer). And that is the Clear Channel way.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
I'm not saying Viejas shouldn't or couldn't run radio stations. AllI'm saying is when Budweiser distributor mogul Leon Parma owned radio stations, he was smart enough to hire the best people to run them. I'm only suggesting Viejas could be be doing better than Jack Evans.

I spent a brief time at Par Broadcasting - I got out as soon as I could. It was run by a bunch of posers who did their best to ruin several stations. Between psycho Jack Merker and Al the OM on perpetual coffee break, the people Jacor brought in were downright geniuses by comparison.
 
OK, you got me on that one. You are absolutely correct about Al and Merker. I was talking about the guy above them. I can't remember his name, but he had a portrait of Abe Lincoln in hanging in his office. He was he GM, and minority owner. Now HE was a good guy as I recall. Parma and one other guy (as I remember) were the majority owners.
I can not argue with your thoughts on these other guys. Didn't Al go on to put out a trade magazine? It was reported that Merker was found dead in his closet (!) I guess this just goes to show there were bad guys throughout radio. So much for the romantic golden era stuff. Someone told me the PD at KGB during its boss radio days, Les Turpin, was not exactly a stellar broadcaster.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
OK, you got me on that one. You are absolutely correct about Al and Merker. I was talking about the guy above them. I can't remember his name, but he had a portrait of Abe Lincoln in hanging in his office. He was he GM, and minority owner. Now HE was a good guy as I recall. Parma and one other guy (as I remember) were the majority owners.
I can not argue with your thoughts on these other guys. Didn't Al go on to put out a trade magazine? It was reported that Merker was found dead in his closet (!) I guess this just goes to show there were bad guys throughout radio. So much for the romantic golden era stuff. Someone told me the PD at KGB during its boss radio days, Les Turpin, was not exactly a stellar broadcaster.

Al was some sort of columnist for Radio and Records I believe. Merker finally PO'ed the wrong person.

I don't remember now who the Par GM was but I love the quote I found at http://www.webpages.ttu.edu/gboroda/about.html

"(From this, you might say the top management at Par didn't quite understand how the broadcasting world worked, and you would be right)."


I have seen a lot of nice glad-handing GM's let their stations go to hell without even realizing it: they paid no attention to what went on in "programming" and when they did get involved it was usually to make a bad decision (generally invlving marketing campaigns).
 
The new Mikey Show and the remnants of the old one (called The Show) are both not helping their respective stations. Both 94/9 and Rock 105 are tanking 25-54. But of the three modern rockers, Rock 105 is now third of three. I was told by an employee of Clear Channel that he would not be surprised if Clear Channel would blow up Rock 105 and put its sports station (now on 1360) on 105.3 as a simulcast or by itself.

The reasons are obvious.
1. Rock 105 is last place among modern rockers.
2. The Show has never been the same since Mikey left. And while many say the new Mikey Show sucks, many others say The Show sucks even more.
3. All across the country the big trend is for sports and news/talk stations to pop up on the FM band.
4. It would cost nothing for XTRA Sports to be simulcast on 1360 since the station already exists.
5. Clear Channel is spending a pot of money on Rock 105 staff...it has a five-person morning show, an afternoon DJ and a mid-day DJ. That's seven salaries they could save.
6. AM 1360 is a lost cause. That signal sucks out loud.
7. For the last year AM 1090 has been kicking ass among men 18-49. Even though 1090 is independent, they have a great number of quality advertisers.
8. Rock 105 is a programming mess. Instead of sticking with hard rock, it plays many of the same pop-punk/alternative artists (Green Day, etc.) that you can already hear on the other two modern rockers.
9. The Chargers live broadcasts already run on 105.3.
 
one more....

10. 1360 could be leased as a religious or non-English station (just as Jefferson Pilot/Lincoln Financial did with KSON 1240 AM) or it could turn into a brokered station like AM 1000 or AM 1700. This would allow an additional revenue stream for Clear Channel Channel San Diego.
 
KIOZ has been on a slow now a fast downward spiral. That is what happens when you fire experienced program directors and hire the promotions director to program. Shauna's specialty is "would you like a tee shirt with your bumper sticker"?

KIOZ is fixable, KUSS is not. There is not enough country market in San Diego right now for two country stations. Remember KCBQ was country fighting KSON for a while. CC and others dont remember the quote "those who forget history are DOOMED to repeat it".

Put sports on 95.7 and expand the coverage and make it full fidelity instead of the CC mandated BS of 5khz audio.
 
canyouhearmenow said:
one more....

10. 1360 could be leased as a religious or non-English station (just as Jefferson Pilot/Lincoln Financial did with KSON 1240 AM) or it could turn into a brokered station like AM 1000 or AM 1700. This would allow an additional revenue stream for Clear Channel Channel San Diego.

Sports ratings are seasonal. February and March are tough months between the end of football and the start of Baseball. 1090 is a good product ...
 
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