RADIO'S FUTURE...

[jmtillery]

With the current economy in a recession resulting in consumer spending coming to a "stand-still", radio station personnel layoffs, as well as technological advances giving consumers more choices for their listening pleasure, where do you see traditional terrestrial AM and FM radio, in particular in Florida, headed? What role do you see radio playing in the market place five years from now? What formats do you see as dominant for terrestrial radio on the AM band and FM band? And, in general, what overall role do you see terrestrial radio playing in the near and long range future?

Mark Tillery,
Ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[KR4BD]

???

Is there a FUTURE for Radio?

 

[jmtillery]

???

Is there a FUTURE for Radio?

That's the question I had already asked, so you tell me if there is a future, and if there is one, what kind of future do you see for terrestrial radio?

Mark Tillery,
Ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[KR4BD]

In my opinion, there is NO future for local radio in small to medium markets. Too Many Stations are competing for too little advertising revenue. Crank up the computers! Nearly ALL radio stations will be robots! It's already been that way in much of the country.... Now, the larger markets are getting a taste of the "new radio" in this lousy economy as large numbers of folks are getting axed. Local News on the radio? Forget it! Here in Lexington, the local Clear Channel stations get our "local" news (via VT) from WHAS in Louisville (75 miles away). And.... Local WVLK just exited their long time News Director, so it's obvious to me, LOCAL radio is really hurtin'.

 

[jmtillery]

There's no doubt that radio is really "hurtin'" across the board in all markets. I also agree that radio cannot continue on its current destructive path and survive. I believe local radio can and will survive if certain measures are taken now to make terrestrial radio a "demand" medium, but it will take creative vision from innovative people to make it happen.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Mark Tillery,
Ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[MN Maniac]

Scary times indeed. I saw this coming when CC rolled out Ryan Seacrest across multiple timeslots and in large markets:

http://danoday.blogspot.com/2008/12/alleged-clear-channel-reduction-plan.html

 

[drt]

In my opinion, there is NO future for local radio in small to medium markets. Too Many Stations are competing for too little advertising revenue. Crank up the computers! Nearly ALL radio stations will be robots! It's already been that way in much of the country.... Now, the larger markets are getting a taste of the "new radio" in this lousy economy as large numbers of folks are getting axed. Local News on the radio? Forget it! Here in Lexington, the local Clear Channel stations get our "local" news (via VT) from WHAS in Louisville (75 miles away). And.... Local WVLK just exited their long time News Director, so it's obvious to me, LOCAL radio is really hurtin'.

One small market, that might be an anomoly is the Leesburg/The Villages,FL area (I don't know if their a market per se - although
The Villages covers three countries, Lake,Sumter and Marion..... and Marion is part of the Ocala/Gainesville market)..... anyway 2 music stations WRZN 720 and WVLG both live and local during the day and WVLG has plenty of local news, weather and features among their music format (the Best of the 50's,60's and 70's) and then WLBE 790 that is local talk and music. (there may be some syndicated talk as well).

That said, I think at least in the top 50 to 100 market, it's going to boil down to "How do you want your satellite radio?" on a terrestrial station?..... or directly from the satellite. (assuming Sirius/XM doesn't go under). The advantage to getting the radio directly from satellite, is more music options and no commercials on the music stations. (at least for now).

Currently I'm in the 18th largest radio market and even so the so called "news leader" (sic) doesn't do live news after 7pm, it's recorded at that time played thoughout the rest of the day. This station does have a morning program that focuses mostly on lite news and trivia and opinion , mixing in some real news but in the afternoon drive; they don't even bother to have any local programming, the satellite feed continues with the political pundit for that time slot.

Another station apparently records the news in late morning and then repeats that throughout the day to two of it's local stations. I've caught their afternoon news several times doing that, maybe they don't do it all the time. These two instances are ClearChannel stations and Salem Radio; but I know the rest of the chains are pretty much the same.(CBS's smooth jazz station, in this market, recently fired all but one of it's announcers and all but the morning drive is satellite.)

I don't know what the longterm solution is and I suspect the CEO's and top management of most of these corporations don't have a clue either.

drt
st.petersburg

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

tillery: it's hard to get this topic really jump-started, ins't it?

I've asked myself this same question, and ask it of others when the opportunity arises. The answers do not come easy. Let me ramble for a moment with some loose-cannon shots.

A big pressure on radio is the arrival of new gadgets and toys. Listening on the Internet. Satellite radio. iPods and other mp3 devices. Streaming through the phone. These services may become cheaper and cheaper through time (Look what has happened to the cost of long-distance phone service in the last 30 years!) but for now, toys cost money. Some radio stations may need to refocus on the listening habits of lower income people. Program for the people who cannot access all the new toys. I know. Do advertisers want to reach low income people? That is another discussion.

Earlier in this thread someone said something to the effect that small market radio will die first. If there is validity to my idea of focusing on (as George Jones and Tammy Wynette sang years ago) focusing on the Chevrole-LET set, not the JET set. The best jobs are in the big markets. I'm not talking about the radio jobs but jobs period. Banking. Computers. Accounting. Engineering. The cities are magnets for high income people. If radio can thrive on broadcasting to "other than high rollers" then small markets should be "low-hanging fruit" ready for the picking.

Back to my earlier question: Do advertisers want to reach low income people? For the small market merchants... what other choice do they have?

 

[cflamfm]

AM and FM radio must follow the past...
After TV was invented, AM radio after FM went crazy, the internet, I Pods...
Conservatives found their nitch on AM talk in the late 80's with the intro of Rush AND MADE HUGH STRIDES AND MONEY...
Analysis will be done and radio will fill a void, many voids that exists...there is always a void to be filled to serve the public...we must just find what it is with study and inventive ideas, and there will be more than one need...will it ever be as tremenous, including revenue, as past years..No...But, it will make it...IMHO

 

[Davie123]

Over time you will see the big radio companies converting their spectrum to transmission of other digital wireless services. They will either sell the spectrum or get FCC approval to use the spectrum for different purposes than terrestial broadcasting. There will be no financially viable reason to have a "brick and mortar" radio station as we know it today. Content creators will still be in demand because of the vast amount of digital media space that will need to be filled. But being a "jock" hired to do a daily radio show on one station is a concept that will disappear, and it already is. If you think the conversion of radio spectrum to other wireless services can't happen, I got news for you, it is already happening in Europe. And of course, here in the U.S. the analog spectrum used by TV has already been auctioned off by the FCC for other wireless services to use after TV converts to digital in February. In England, the government is actually forcing some broadcasters to give up their spectrum so it can be used by other wireless services.

 

[drt]

testing, trying for the 4th time to make a response!

Here's hoping the 4th time will be a charm.

drt

 

[jmtillery]

testing, trying for the 4th time to make a response!

Here's hoping the 4th time will be a charm.

drt

Your transmission came through laud and clear... Roger... Over and out.

Mark Tillery,
ocala, Florida
[email protected]

 

[drt]

Over time you will see the big radio companies converting their spectrum to transmission of other digital wireless services. They will either sell the spectrum or get FCC approval to use the spectrum for different purposes than terrestial broadcasting. There will be no financially viable reason to have a "brick and mortar" radio station as we know it today. Content creators will still be in demand because of the vast amount of digital media space that will need to be filled. But being a "jock" hired to do a daily radio show on one station is a concept that will disappear, and it already is. If you think the conversion of radio spectrum to other wireless services can't happen, I got news for you, it is already happening in Europe. And of course, here in the U.S. the analog spectrum used by TV has already been auctioned off by the FCC for other wireless services to use after TV converts to digital in February. In England, the government is actually forcing some broadcasters to give up their spectrum so it can be used by other wireless services.

Now, on this fifth try; I have faith that what I was going to say the first three times will get posted. (maybe..... hopefully!)......

This is a good thread and many intelligent thoughts. (except for my ramblings!)

I think TamiamiSammy probably has it right in the long run; my comments were the short term future, the next 6 - 18 months; but eventually even satellite feeds 24/7 won't be the long term solution to keep radio viable. Some form or variation of WiFi most likely will be in the long term future.

Now as far as what GoatRodeoCowboy said about advertisers having to advertise to the "unwashed masses" [my term] will have to happen. With this economy and most people wondering if they will have a job next month or in another year or if they do have a job, will the income level be the same; has most of us being more frugal.

Actually, GoatRodeoCowboy was wondering (as I wonder) if advertisers in this day and age can still connect to the middle and lower class; we shall see.

It really comes across to me as coarse and vulger when an ad suggests that we should all go out and buy a Lexiius or an Infinity as a Christmas gift or a Rolex; when we have a good number of people wondering if they will have a roof over their head or enough money to pay the electric bill.

drt,
getting off his soap box and crossing his fingers.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I may end up having to argue against myself, drt. After reading your version of what I wrote, I paged back to see if I indeed said that. Indeed.

We all have dreams, aspirations. We assure ourselves that we are capable of doing better and better. Thus, the unwashed are not always offended by an occasional Lexus ad. After all, they are sure someday they may get to own one. They need to know a little bit about the product.

This brings me to one of the things that fascinates me today. If you follow Rush Limbaugh, I assume you would agree with me that he promotes policy that makes it possible for entrepreneurs and winners to enjoy the full benefit of the income and wealth they can acquire, and that their taxation should be minimized. Rush addresses what he calls "class envy". I don't think of him as a person who let's his heart bleed very much over the plight of those who struggle with life and finances. Here is where I am going: How many times does he take a call from some young dude that sounds like he is 24 years old and is no where near success yet. And yet the called considers himself a ditto head, and is sure that his time is coming just right away. And Rush is his hero, making sure that the world will be friendly when the caller gets rich.

Here is where I may be arguing with myself: What does it mean to our understanding of the future of radio when we observe these people who may be the "victims" of conservatism and the dreams of Rush, and yet they see him as their "hero figure".

I realize some of you will take offense of my characterization of conservatism and "the dreams of Rush". Don't get hung up on that. We're talking about the dreams of 24 year old Billy Sixpack. What else can we broadcast (other than political/philosophical talk) that will capture Billy as a listener other times of the day?

 

[drt]

I may end up having to argue against myself, drt. After reading your version of what I wrote, I paged back to see if I indeed said that. Indeed.

We all have dreams, aspirations. We assure ourselves that we are capable of doing better and better. Thus, the unwashed are not always offended by an occasional Lexus ad. After all, they are sure someday they may get to own one. They need to know a little bit about the product.

This brings me to one of the things that fascinates me today. If you follow Rush Limbaugh, I assume you would agree with me that he promotes policy that makes it possible for entrepreneurs and winners to enjoy the full benefit of the income and wealth they can acquire, and that their taxation should be minimized. Rush addresses what he calls "class envy". I don't think of him as a person who let's his heart bleed very much over the plight of those who struggle with life and finances. Here is where I am going: How many times does he take a call from some young dude that sounds like he is 24 years old and is no where near success yet. And yet the called considers himself a ditto head, and is sure that his time is coming just right away. And Rush is his hero, making sure that the world will be friendly when the caller gets rich.

Here is where I may be arguing with myself: What does it mean to our understanding of the future of radio when we observe these people who may be the "victims" of conservatism and the dreams of Rush, and yet they see him as their "hero figure".

I realize some of you will take offense of my characterization of conservatism and "the dreams of Rush". Don't get hung up on that. We're talking about the dreams of 24 year old Billy Sixpack. What else can we broadcast (other than political/philosophical talk) that will capture Billy as a listener other times of the day?

Maybe I got hung up on the advertising part of your post, Goat Rodeo Cowboy (everytime I say or write that name, I have to smile!), but at this time of the year, whether you celebrate Channukah or Christmas, I just find the over commericialization offensive; can't I have a nice holiday without being made to feel I need to go out and buy myself (because I work hard and certainly deserve it!) or someone else a Lexius to feel fulfilled?

Rush is a powerful influence and his philosphy is not unlike some of the new religions/mega churches that preach prosperity and if you don't prosper, you don't have enough faith! As far as 24 year old Joe Sixpack, he is probably gullable and will buy into anything that sounds plausible, without analyzing it.

We can't all be CEO's, radio political pundits etc...... and I know of one prominent nationally syndicated radio host, who does take pride in giving the impression, he pulled himself up by his own bootstraps, but somehow forgets that he had a family member that owned the radio station where he got his start and another family member, who had some political connections.

At any rate, radio and advertisers are just part of the equation as to the future of radio. WiFi may replace traditional radio or maybe what the replacement will be, isn't even on our radar scope yet. How many of us would have even known about WiFi 15 years ago and would have considered it serious competition?

Now, that I am re-reading my post, I can see, that I should have gone to bed about an hour ago....... so if this doesn't make sense; I'll blame it on sleep deprivation; if someone thinks it makes any type of sense, just call me an unintentional genius!

drt

 

[John FL]

The answer to the future of radio may be found in its history. Radio has a proven track record to survive and evolve in changing times. As in all successful business, radio will need to differentiate itself and be guided by those with a vision and a love of the medium. Pardon the little trip down memory lane here but it is to make a point.

Radio's demise was talked about even in the 1950s when television was gaining popularity. Radio dramas and variety shows gave way to playing records and rock 'n roll was born. With the exception of the late 60s, FM music stations were mainly elevator formats and obscure rock. The rock stations were like the anti AM offerings where the jocks sounded like they were drugged out broadcasting from some black lagoon and endlessly long album cuts were the norm. FM too evolved as those with a vision such as Bill Drake recognized tight formats and playing the hits in stereo would attract and grow an audience. This saw a continued switching of music listening from AM to FM. Talk radio, especially conservative talk, news and sports, are just about the only things that work on AM and these are usually on the big signal former Top 40 giants.

And so where do we go from here?

If we look at the overall history of radio as I described in Cliffs Notes fashion above, the decision makers mainly got it right. In looking back, it's also evident that the listener was still in the center of decision making.

The decisions over the last five years or so have mainly been wrong. Yes, commercial radio must make money for its owners and stockholders. But what happened was irresponsible. As more and more automation took place and talent was dismissed with reckless abandon, radio became a shell of what it once was. Since this is a Florida board, I can tell you in my travels across this state it becomes increasingly more difficult to find one market sounding unique than another. Sure, Miami is an exception with the large number of Hispanic stations but it should be that way so as to reflect the diversity of the community. Many do not.

Since this post is all about opinions anyway, I believe radio's future has to build on the proven appeal and success in it's glorious past. Radio must be local and it needs to differentiate itself from all the competition in the high tech electronic world in which we live. It needs to reflect the diversity of the community it serves and it needs some movers and shakers to break away from business as usual. I hate to break the news to you folks, but the current way of doing things "ain't working" as well as it could be.

In the next few days I'll travel south on I-95 from Jacksonville to Ft. Lauderdale as I do several times a year. I can't tell you how many times I've been stuck in traffic and I can go up and down the dial and not hear what is happening. People turn to radio for entertainment AND to be informed. When listeners continue to not get what they want, they will go elsewhere and the emotional bond radio once had will continue to diminish.

I'd like to see radio return to it's roots - get out into the community, broadcast from charity events, do remotes from a sponsor, be active in the chamber of commerce to help drum up business and empower the talent to talk about the weather or other things more than once an hour if something significant is happening. Offer listeners something more to listen to than the same playlists and formats everyone is doing.

There may be a bright spot for radio in this economic downturn. As business continues to look for ways to reduce costs, satellite
service may be an easy luxury to do without. Time spent listening can potentially go up in business establishments. This could help the sales teams nail more business. But even more importantly, radio could be given opportunity to make positive impressions on the listener. Radio needs more of those with a vision and to put the listener in the center.

My biggest radio hero was PD Rick Sklar of WABC. In the 60s and early 70s, Rick built WABC into the highest rated, most listened to station in America. He did it by targeting everyone. This was not the norm or the business as usual way of doing things. The jocks, music, jingles, news broadcasts and promotions all were designed for maximum mass-appeal impact. No, I'm not advocating mass-appeal but radio's future needs more guiding her who have vision, the drive to succeed and to have the guts to break away from the norm.

The 25-54 target demo has been discussed to death. But I believe, radio's future has to be more inclusive. It makes little sense to me that in most markets 10 FMs are all going after a piece of the 25-54 where most receive crumbs in ad revenue. Folks, there's only so much to go around. There are significant numbers of listeners who are underserved. I've seen pockets of change of thinking but we have a ways to go.

I believe radio can still have a bright future but there has to be an incentive for people to want to listen. Apologies for the long response but I can write a book on this subject. This is a great subject and radio is a great medium and she is worth fighting for!

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Since this is a Florida board, I can tell you in my travels across this state it becomes increasingly more difficult to find one market sounding unique than another. Sure, Miami is an exception with the large number of Hispanic stations but it should be that way so as to reflect the diversity of the community. Many do not.

Travel has always been a good thing to do... even if you only did a little bit of travel. Visiting important places, visiting historical places, visiting unique places has always expanded our knowledge about ourselves, and given us a bigger picture of life.

I can remember traveling across country and when you came to a town, you might stop and ask people: "Where is a good place to eat."

Today, as you travel, not only do you not find radio in one market that is uniquely different that the market you just left, you find the same food here as in the market you just left. No need to ask a stranger where the good food is.... you just look around at the same familiar signs. McDonalds. Olive Garden. Dairy Queen. Ruths Criss Steakhouse. TGI Fridays. Why ask. You already know what your are going to find inside each of them.

Even without traveling the boredom settles in. Let's eat out tonight, dear. Where shall we go? How about (in the words of Charlie Brown TV) wawha-wa-wah. BORE-ring. Wawah-wah-way? BORE-ring. Well, we could ...... you're right. BORE-ring.

Wal-marts everywhere. Office Depot everywhere. Frozen, concentrated radio everywhere.

I, too, could write a book. I don't think I could write how to operate a great radio station for the big city... but for the neighborhood, for the community, for the small market, right in the FOREWARD of my book would be this sentence:

"If my radio station were a restaurant, the sign out front would say Home Cooking or maybe You Will Swear We Stole Your Mother's Recipe Files."

 

[Davie123]

Just to clarify my last post, I do not mean to imply that the digital media space has no future for creative talent. Quite to the contrary, the rapidly increasing forms of new media are providing GREAT opportunities for people who can offer engaging content. But you should re-focus your efforts on being a Digital Media Star, not just a Radio Star. You will need to "multi-task to the max" and learn how to market your talents to the rapidly expanding world of mobile media (hand-held devices), Internet broadcasting and publishing, and satellite. You will need to talk, write and dance to the digital beat. Imagine going to work at a Digital Media Facility (instead of a radio station building) where you deliver creative content (audio, video, and text) to dozens of audiences over the full spectrum of digital media outlets. Such facilities partially exist in the large markets. Soon I think we will see a new wave of media companies that defy the traditional definitions we have known. If you want to work for them, you will have to have to break out of the traditional defintions of being a single-media contributor.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

You will need to "multi-task to the max" and learn how to market your talents to the rapidly expanding world of mobile media (hand-held devices), Internet broadcasting and publishing, and satellite. You will need to talk, write and dance to the digital beat. Imagine going to work at a Digital Media Facility (instead of a radio station building) where you deliver creative content (audio, video, and text) to dozens of audiences over the full spectrum of digital media outlets.

I think you are looking the right direction for the horizon of the approaching future. Not because I think you are wrong, but for the sake of further discussion let me challenge you a bit on some of the details.

What you have said is like saying that everyone who wants to grow up and play football has to become a quarterback. Everyone who wants to be in the Air Force has to become a fighter pilot.

To be a pioneer in this newly emerging age of communications, the quarterbacks, the guys and gals who can do it all and multi-task big time will be the pioneers we see on the horizon first. Some of them will be doing this from home even. But these people who are going to check in daily at the Digital Media Center.... do you not see teamwork there? Tonight I could get in my car and within 60 minutes be at the headquarters of CNN in Atlanta. If I could get in there this time of night I would probably see people emptying trash, I would see people entering tomorrows program schedule into a computer terminal. I would see people on the phone begging to get the cell phone number of someone they badly need to interview NOW. And here and there I would see the "Walk On Water" stars that we see on our screens at home. Do you not see a place in this brave new Digital Media Center for a division of labor?

And what about the audience. I use CNN as my example above because I just turned off Campbell Brown and her No Bull version of television. I could see by the look on my wife's face that she had reached her tolerance level of this digital media age multi-tasking high-intensity video-game pace of programming. TURN THE DAMN THING OFF! NOW!!!

I have no doubt the Digital Media Center contents you describe is on the way. I have my own mental image of what it might sound like if it is the audio only presentation, and what it might look like if it is the version that is video. And I have no doubt that it will be a leading/dominant player in audience reach.

Paint me a picture of what the Digital Media Center might also offer for those of us who do not and cannot multi-task. I focus on one thing at a time. At the end of the day I may have encountered 27 different tasks in one day, but they file through my mind one at a time. I am not alone. Is there going to be a place for me in the audience of your future world?

 

[Ai4i]

Many years ago, I was suggesting using the standard broadcast band for navigational beacons, but in today's market of location finding technologies, those stations would not compete effectively with GPS or even triangulation from nearby cell sites.
As FM radio was a temporary transition between AM radio and satellite radio, so to shall sat rad become a transition between terrestrial radio and din size, dashboard mounted web radios.