Rock in New York City

[davideduardo]

Lol, both Clear Channel and Cumulus believe Alternative stations breed financial success

No, that is not the conclusion any radio management person would take. Cumulus and Clear have determined that Alternative is the right format under certain situations... for certain stations in certain, determined market situations.

After trying a variety of things in Philly on one station, they finally went to alternative. It's got some ratings momentum, but still has not seen that fact being monetized.

In Atlanta, Clear made multiple mistakes. Combined with some rimshot signals, they finally concluded that alternative, despite its typically low major market power ratios for new entrants, was a good choice for a signal with essentially no billing and which was probably losing money.

...and the idea that WRFF is 1st 18-34 and 3rd 25-54, and somehow manages to come in near to dead last in profit, is ludicrous - especially

We don´t know the profit for WRFF, so nobody has discussed it. Your confusion on business terms, Reuben, is monumental.

, since, as you know, Clear Channel used that exact same template when they flipped a Rhythmic CHR to Alternative in Atlanta

In radio, we call them "formats" and not "templates". If you don't know the terminology of radio or of business, why don't you listen a little more and not venture so many opinions that look like SNL skits about a WKRP-like radio station?

and obviously, if David works with Spanish radio stations, they may be concerned about one of these stations flipping to Alternative

Having a station flip to alternative tends to benefit Spanish language radio stations if it has any effect at all because alternative stations underindex among Hispanics and alternative music is not widely exposed in Latin America, either. So, from that perspective, I'd rather see an alternative format come to NYC as it would perhaps push some of the listeners who are Hispanic away from general market radio and back to the "Mothership".

We'll see what happens in NYC in the coming months

Watch Pacifica / WBAI.

 

[chrocket87]

ATL, look at the WBAI board, as it appears the station will be dying in the next few weeks. It seems Alternative should be back by the end of summer, depends on who buys it.

 

[atlantaboy]

ATL, look at the WBAI board, as it appears the station will be dying in the next few weeks. It seems Alternative should be back by the end of summer, depends on who buys it.

^Alright! (Hoping that's what Lew Dickey was referring to)

If it happens, I really hope that Cumulus follows the Clear Channel Radio 105.7/Radio 104.5 model, keeping a lot of the songs familiar, letting listeners have active input into the programming, and skewing the music slightly adult, since I still feel like a lot of the younger, 20-something Alt. audience that lives in the city doesn't drive, and that's got to affect their opportunity to listen to the radio

If Cumulus follows this model, IMO they should be able to get between a 2-3 share in the metro, but then much higher in Morristown NJ, Westchester, Naussau, etc.

Two years ago, I think the major problem with Alternative was that the music shifted dramatically, so stations ended up mixing Mumford & Sons, Florence, Phoenix, etc. with Shinedown, Rise Against, Seether, etc., and the result was kind of a mess

IMO enough time has passed now that Alternative stations are now able to mix currents with popular Indie/Alt recurrents from the last few years, and I think that's a big reason why Alternative ratings are now on an upswing

 

[radiolives]

If Clear Channel had an underperforming station I wounder if they would do a Radio type alternative station.

 

[XCountry285]

Power 105.1 isn't doing so well.

 

[luperm]

Power 105.1 isn't doing so well.

How do you figure that?

 

[XCountry285]

Last ratings it was down a lot

 

[luperm]

Last ratings it was down a lot

12+ ratings should not necessarily be relied upon to draw conclusions about anything.

How does it bill?
How does it help the cluster?
What is the competition?

Look at the discussion in this thread about the rock station in Philadelphia. You can have ratings that don't necessarily translate into revenue. The opposite is also true. You can have a station that doesn't appear to have the best ratings, but it could bill well and/or suit the owner's competitive needs.

 

[davideduardo]

Last ratings it was down a lot

Ad buys are not based on one book... they are based on multi-book averages or trends. One single low-side book is not an indication that billing would be affected.

If the low side book is not recovered from in a couple of further books, then the first step is format adjustment, not format changing.

This is a high billing station.

 

[atlantaboy]

Look at the discussion in this thread about the rock station in Philadelphia. You can have ratings that don't necessarily translate into revenue.

Remember, you can also have high revenue that doesn't necessarily translate into high profits, and you can have low revenue that does result in high profits, all depending on advertising expenses to the public, promotional expenses to advertisers, staffing costs, and a whole different variety of factors.

There are no accessible records on profit, so using straight revenue numbers can be just as inaccurate as using straight demo rankings - WRFF/Philadelphia could be one of the most profitable stations in the market, especially given its performance in its target demos, and the fact that Clear Channel copied its template to create a new station in Atlanta - if WRFF wasn't solidly profitable, CC wouldn't have recreated the station in another market

Power 105.1 has a solid, loyal ethnic listener base that I assume attracts a great deal of advertisers targeting that population, so I don't think there's anyway Clear Channel would want to flip it - IMO that would be too much of a financial risk

 

[MarkW]

I suspect Cumulus will be highly interested in the 99.5 stick.

However, if someone like Educational Media Foundation were to get their hands on it, I could see K-Love shifting from 96.7 to 99.5 and 96.7 flipping to Air-1. I would be surprised, though, to see EMF outbid Cumulus.

Another question would be -- how many sticks does Cumulus want in the greater New York area? Would they hang onto *both* 94.7 and 99.5 in addition to 95.5? I think the answer is yes. If they were successful in acquiring 99.5, I think it's pretty much a no-brainer that they would flip 103.9 to someone else.

It's good to see underperforming, underutilized stations such as 94.7 and (soon) 99.5 being put to more productive use.

I could easily see Cumulus moving the Country format from 94.7 to 99.5 if they were to acquire the latter.

 

[atlantaboy]

I hope the Cumulus situation works out, but what about Townsquare's WKXW? Its tagline is "New Jersey 101.5", and in the Morristown market it's trended 3.3-3.0-1.9, and its share in the NYC market is 1.1

I know Talk formats can be tricky, because it's an efficient way for advertisers to reach the male audience during drive times, but those overall share ratings seem pretty dismal - again, I'm not sure if there are drive-time shows under contract, etc.

Not sure about finances, but flipping to Alternative would certainly give them higher shares

Plus, the New Jersey suburbs would be a perfect fit for an adult-leaning Alternative station, just like the northern suburbs of Atlanta are now - no?

 

[chrocket87]

Whoa! WKXW's home market is Trenton, where it does a fantastic job in ratings and billing. The NY suburbs are just a bonus.

 

[luperm]

Whoa! WKXW's home market is Trenton, where it does a fantastic job in ratings and billing. The NY suburbs are just a bonus.

Not to mention that there are many areas in the Morristown "market" where 101.5 can't be heard. It's also not unusual to see big swings in small breakouts like Morristown. And, again, using 12+ numbers for any sort of meaningful analysis is pointless.

 

[chrocket87]

Two years ago, I think the major problem with Alternative was that the music shifted dramatically, so stations ended up mixing Mumford & Sons, Florence, Phoenix, etc. with Shinedown, Rise Against, Seether, etc., and the result was kind of a mess

This seems to be the Cumulus formula for Alternative, at least of the handful of stations I've heard of theirs. Personally, I enjoy the indie/ALT folk mixed with the harder bands you mentioned, but that's me. Would they program a station different for NY? It's anyone's guess.

 

[atlantaboy]

^I think that's what drove 99X into the ground, so I'm a little concerned, I guess (the Indie fans went to Dave, the Active fans went to Project, and 99X was left in the middle with the least number of listeners) - I just feel like I know a lot of people that either like Indie/Alternative or Active Rock, and just not a lot of people that like to sit through one genre to hear the other - and I think RXP had a similar problem in trying to mix Indie/Alternative with Classic Rock

And whoops about WKXW lol (it has a 10.7 share in Trenton) - there goes that idea...

Luperm - I don't think that using 12+ trends is meaningless, because trends in share usually match trends in demo ranking

 

[atlantaboy]

BTW, Cumulus has an awful record with Alternative stations (unfortunately) - that's going by Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Hudson Valley, New Orleans, and Portland ME

I really hope they're willing to follow the Clear Channel formula

 

[davideduardo]

I hope the Cumulus situation works out, but what about Townsquare's WKXW? Its tagline is "New Jersey 101.5", and in the Morristown market it's trended 3.3-3.0-1.9, and its share in the NYC market is 1.1

NJ 101.5 is a Central New Jersey play, as others have indicated. It's "home" to Trenton, and serves the area between the NY metro and the Philly metro.

I know Talk formats can be tricky, because it's an efficient way for advertisers to reach the male audience during drive times, but those overall share ratings seem pretty dismal - again, I'm not sure if there are drive-time shows under contract, etc.

You know nothing at all about one of America's most successful smaller market talkers. This is, of the 15,000 stations in the US, one of the least likely to change format.

Not sure about finances, but flipping to Alternative would certainly give them higher shares

You are looking at shares that the station gets at the fringe of its signal coverage... shares it gets because it is unique in offering a New Jersey pureplay talk format (actually, a hybrid).

Plus, the New Jersey suburbs would be a perfect fit for an adult-leaning Alternative station, just like the northern suburbs of Atlanta are now - no?

In a word, no. Not even when the Ice Age comes to Hell.

 

[davideduardo]

Luperm - I don't think that using 12+ trends is meaningless, because trends in share usually match trends in demo ranking

Luperm specifically said that using 12+ "for any sort of meaningful analysis is pointless". For analysis. Meaningful analysis.

It is quite frequent to see 12+ increases while a station has actually gone down in its core target. Or decreases while the core grows. So most folks in radio either don't look at 12+ or don't look at it first.

And, since you obviously don't have access to the meaningful breaks, and don't have anything to apply the data too, anyway, how would you know what is useful? Why don't you listen to people with knowledge and experience, such as luperm, who will give you useful tips, pointers and suggestions on how to translate your passion for alternative music into the world of commercial radio?

 

[davideduardo]

Remember, you can also have high revenue that doesn't necessarily translate into high profits, and you can have low revenue that does result in high profits, all depending on advertising expenses to the public, promotional expenses to advertisers, staffing costs, and a whole different variety of factors.

Congratulations. You are starting to get it.

However, sales promotion is a small expense. Yet you mention it, but don't mention sales costs (seller commissions, sales management overrides, agency commissions, rep firm commissions, etc) which can be in the 20% of gross sales range in transactional (ratings driven) markets. That means that the first $0.20 of every dollar never gets much beyond the front door.

Promotional expenses from contests to outdoor and TV and events can be a moderate expense, a non-existent one, or a significant one depending on format, competitive situation and such. It's the one area where there are no rules, guidelines or norms. (I was involved with a Top 15 market station that was #1 in every key demo (and 12+) for 22 years in every single book... yet it spent less than 1% of revenues on promotion... sometimes nothing... each year.

But with WRFF, at $4 million in billing, there are many many stations in the market... my guess is either 10 or 11 of them... that have BCF higher than 'RRF's gross billing. That is just based on intuitive analysis of billings, formats and typical expense structure that comes from a half-century running, owning and programming radio stations. As I said before, try listening to folks on this board; even if you disagree with my perspective, there are many others who know how radio works and are skilled in interpreting market data and can show you how to better understand how the business side of radio works.