Rush moves to 106.9, Monday, June 25th

[pab]

You still haven't explained how you are going to magically get WWIQ more listeners than the same basic lineup had at WPHT or WNTP (in the case of Levin). People who wanted to listen to Rush knew where to find him on WPHT and Limbaugh's "casual" listener base has been next to nil since the early 1990's; it's all dedicated listeners or nothing. Hannity and Beck flopped in Philly before and won't bring much in the way of new listeners this time around. Levin was getting 0.0 at WNTP. The only new program at WWIQ is the morning show and it's total crap hosted by someone who was not too long ago ridden out of town on a rail.

Conservative talk in Philly hovers between 2.0 and 3.0 and now that's going to be split among three stations. You can't make a top ten station by splitting the audiences of the #15 and a station that hasn't broken 0.1 for more than a year.

Unless you're using the same math that Bush did when he sold his "job creating" tax cuts.

 

[radiophiler]

Gotta agree with Pab. IQ106.9 will do better than Merlin's Chicago and NYC stations in the 12+ ratings ... but it's a low bar to jump. To do that, the station will only have to score a 0.7.

IQ won't get above a 1.0-1.9 share. Its demos will be primarily white males age 45+, and mainly 55+.

I see one possibility here which may help IQ: They've seen in Chicago and NYC how difficult it is to get traction with a totally local news/talk format from scratch.

Rush and his fellow conservative hosts will attract more listeners than the company's other news/talk stations. It will be something to build on.

Keep Rush et al for two or three years, build that 1.5 share, at least get people in the Philly market to know that 106.9 is the FM news/talk station, then drop Rush and the others and go local.

While local news/talk is expensive, there are no large fees for carrying Rush (and the fees are very high in large markets), and you get to keep all the commercial inventory instead of handing a significant amount of it over to a syndication company.

Yep ... build the audience using the most popular syndicated host for a few years, then drop them like a hot potato. Then, hire hosts who will lower the age demographic once you've established yourself as the FM news/talk station in Philly.

 

[musichead1029]

You still haven't explained how you are going to magically get WWIQ more listeners than the same basic lineup had at WPHT or WNTP (in the case of Levin).

They don't need more listeners than PHT had. The branded package will draw a consistent audience with a higher TSL. Being on FM may or may not contribute to some numbers and demo growth. But it will take away the interference variables and the lousy audio. Consistency of programming and facilities, two things WPHT now lacks. (And remember, CBS stands for "covered by static." )

Hannity and Beck flopped in Philly before and won't bring much in the way of new listeners this time around.

Got numbers to back that up? They were on PHT for 10 years.

Levin was getting 0.0 at WNTP.

Yeah, for the ninth time, everybody on NTP likely gets sub-1.0 numbers. Part of the clearance-based business plan. Levin was a brokered program at NTP. He'll get a larger audience on IQ.

The only new program at WWIQ is the morning show and it's total crap hosted by someone who was not too long ago ridden out of town on a rail.

The show is a stinker, but few listening will catch Mendte's name or care if they do. Though he's definitely part of the problem: he's only on because he's a past associate of Merlin's boss Randy Michaels. And Michaels' judgement has to be in question today given Merlin's lackluster results across all of their acquisitions.

Conservative talk in Philly hovers between 2.0 and 3.0 and now that's going to be split among three stations.

WNTP doesn't care about ratings (not in the picture) and WPHT's lackluster lineup isn't really going to be much competition for IQ's block.

You can't make a top ten station by splitting the audiences of the #15 and a station that hasn't broken 0.1 for more than a year.

They don't need to be top 10 though I'm sure they'd like to be. They need to be profitable. Given low costs and assuming they work the kinks out of their router and get a morning show that isn't off-knob inducing, that shouldn't be a tall order.

The last times I saw NTP in a book, it was between 0.6 and 0.8.

Unless you're using the same math that Bush did when he sold his "job creating" tax cuts.

Ah yes. What's the quote, "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool....

 

[joshzz]

Rush is fading and in Philly it's going to be even more difficult to keep that balloon up. The truth is, people have grown tired of indoctrination radio. They're much smarter and want to hear real banter from an objective perspective. Also big problem with Limbaugh is that most of the callers are hired Premiere Radio Networks callers. He already knows what they're going to ask before the show begins. Real callers won't get on until between two and two and one-half hours into the show. This is a fact the general population doesn't seem to understand. Same with Hannity, and some others.

 

[Robbien]

Rush will be number one again in Philly. Smerconish is not local. He was local for an hour, now it's just a three hour syndicated show. So forget the local theory.

 

[pab]

Rush was never number one in Philly. He wasn't even number one in Philly as far as talk goes (for most of the time Rush was in Philly Howard Stern was #1 for talk in the market; nowadays most of the WIP lineup beat Rush).

Will Rush beat Smerconish? Probably, no one denies that. But CBS is paying much, much less for Smerconish and giving up less ad inventory. Plus there are advertisers actually willing to buy time in Smerconish whereas Rush was mainly filled with promos, in-house ads, and similar filler during his final days on WPHT.

Smerconish can pull in 1/4 of Rush's audience and CBS can make more money off of that 1/4 than they did off of Rush. That's the reality of the game and that's why CBS decided not to renew the contract for Rush.

 

[musichead1029]

Re: IQs Ratings Prospects

Whew, the toilets are overflowing in this thread.

The truth is, people have grown tired of indoctrination radio. They're much smarter and want to hear real banter from an objective perspective.

Hmm. Source for that conjecture? Apparently the listeners haven't caught up with that "truth". Recent audience estimates for the top 16 hosts nationwide indicate that 69% are conservative issues talk, 12.5% general issues and the other 18+% special topic talk (finance, consumer affairs etc...). The conservative talkers in that group attract 78% of the audience for that group.

Also big problem with Limbaugh is that most of the callers are hired Premiere Radio Networks callers. He already knows what they're going to ask before the show begins. Real callers won't get on until between two and two and one-half hours into the show.This is a fact the general population doesn't seem to understand. Same with Hannity, and some others.

The reason the general population doesn't seem to understand this is that it's not true.

Gullible partisans who don't read past (false) headlines in blogs might have gotten that impression for a few days back in March 2011. Premiere had a service that reportedly offered to provide scripted calls to the morning zoo-type yuk yuk shows. The service wasn't intended for, nor used by any major national issues talk show. But some Headline Fabrication Specialist in the blogosphere apparently couldn't resist.

As an aside, a situation like this can be turned into a useful litmus test. Anyone can do a search today to find out who ran these stories, concocted the headlines out of thin air tying Rush and Sean to the Premiere service and never retracted them. Then tag the sites as common dreams fantasy blogs, or better yet, block them in your DNS log, sparing anyone else using the computer the agony of confusing the sites with sources of factual information.

CBS is paying much, much less for Smerconish and giving up less ad inventory. Plus there are advertisers actually willing to buy time in Smerconish whereas Rush was mainly filled with promos, in-house ads, and similar filler during his final days on WPHT.

There's 16 minutes of inventory per hour for local spots (17 in the third hour). Pretty standard. I doubt PHT was putting much effort into selling the last few weeks of Rush.

Smerconish can pull in 1/4 of Rush's audience and CBS can make more money off of that 1/4 than they did off of Rush. That's the reality of the game and that's why CBS decided not to renew the contract for Rush.

First, every news account and press release I saw indicated that Premiere chose to not renew the contract with PHT because they offered it to another station which subsequently signed up. CBS was never mentioned other than announcing their schedule update. Again, some of the humid dream blog fiction writers got ahold of this story and either didn't understand the mechanics of the deal or didn't care.

Second, you and I don't know what Premiere is charging IQ for the 3 show package, but they're likely to get a discount from the carrying just Rush rate.

Third, PHT has to get ratings to make money. They have no major calling card to attract an audience to the post-Rush lineup. The morning show may be good and Dom has an audience, but there's nothing there to hold that audience. I'm not sure that the midday spillover from Dom is going to be enough of an audience to sell ad buyers on Smerconish. Failing that, CBS either needs to find a compelling host, who'll no doubt comand a commensurate salary, or go with a proven syndicated product, the best of which they've now given away. Or change format.

I'm gonna go with Door #3, Monty.

 

[radiophiler]

Most Rush affiliates don't use all 16 minutes of local time for commercials. There's news at the top of the hour. They may even run a news brief at the bottom of the hour. And, if you clear a network such as ABC for news that has its own network commercials, your local inventory is reduced even more.

How many people have heard a station with Rush run seven minutes of back to back commercials from :59 to :06?

For the station we're talking about, IQ is running news at the top and bottom of the hour.

It's actually more like 10 minutes an hour once you subtract time for news traffic and weather and network news commercials.

Compare that to being able to run 14 to 16 minutes an hour of local commercials. That's a 40% reduction in commercial avail time for stations that run Rush or any syndicated talk show for that matter. Their clocks are all more or less the same.

Fees for the Limbaugh show in a major market are in the low six figures per year. Someone has to pay for his salary ... he signed a $400 million five-year contract in 2008. That's $50 mil a year.

I bet the math made sense for WPHT.

 

[HGN2001]

I bet the math made sense for WPHT.

PHT had to MAKE IT make sense, since they had no choice in the matter. You keep forgetting, it was PREMIERE'S DECISION to dump WPHT, not the other way around.

 

[pab]

So we've heard. We've also heard that WPHT was balking at paying the fees. The truth is somewhere in between.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

A 6 figure fee to for a major market station to carry Limbaugh. I could easily understand why WPHT might have a problem with paying such a fee, especially if they weren't getting the local spot revenue to support such a fee.

So now WWIQ in Philly and WABC- NYC (does the flag ship have to pay the fee? Is WABC owned by CC, I would have thought they are owned by ABC, but in today's world, who knows?), and Baltimore's WCBM, etc, are paying a lot of money to carry his show. That's a lot of local spots that need to be sold each year just to break even.

What is the fee for the medium markets like a Wilmington (WILM) or Harrisburg (WHP), or smaller markets like Dover, DE (WDOV) or Rehoboth Beach (WGMD)?

I know WILM is a CC station, so they're using it to clear another city for the national spots where CC makes money from their Premiere network shows. However, WILM airs very few, almost no local spots, almost all are PSA's. I don't know if WHP is more successful in selling elRushbo to fill up their local avails, but frankly it sounds like Rush is making it harder for his affiliates to stay with him. He's milking that cow for every drop of milk before his gravy train comes to an end. It's business, he's selling his product for what he believes the market will allow and up to now he seems to get what he wants.

It would have been interesting to see if elRusbo would have lowered the fee IF WPHT had not chosen to renew and WWIQ hadn't picked up the option. It will be interesting to see when the option runs out if WWIQ renews. I guess much will depend on how well they are able to sell those local avails.

 

[TimeIsTight]

does the flag ship have to pay the fee? Is WABC owned by CC, I would have thought they are owned by ABC, but in today's world, who knows?

The El Rushbo flagship, WABC, is owned by CC rival Cumulus, which started the Huckabee show so that it might be able to replace Rush with a show they owned and could keep "all" the revenue from. Cumulus owns a number of the top market talk stations that carry Rush, including WLS in Chicago.

IIRC, when Rush started at WABC, he did a two hour local NYC talk show in trade for studio and satellite distribution services from ABC for his, just starting, nationally syndicated talk show. He was on locally from 10-AM until Noon, and did the national show starting at noon. That is how WABC got to be Rush's "flagship."

In order to avoid New York city and state income taxes, and, probably AFTRA involvement, Rush moved to Florida and built his own studio near his Palm Beach mansion. Florida has no income taxes, and is a "right-to-work" state. He used to broadcast from WABC when he visited NYC, but sold his NYC apartment in the last couple of years because the city and state were keeping track of his earnings while in NYC for tax purposes. When you work in NYC, even occasionally, you're supposed to pay city and state taxes on your earnings there and its worth it for the state and city to keep track of people like Rush with big daily paychecks.

Probably, Rush has an ISDN line from Florida to WABC, which then feeds the audio to the old ABC radio uplink facilities near Vernon Valley, New Jersey. That used to be, and probably still is, the uplink spot for the major national radio talk show feeds.

WABC production director and staff announcer, Johnny Donovan (his AFTRA name), is still the main production voice for Rush's show, but how the financial arrangements work can only be a guess. Obviously, Clear Channel could switch "Flagships" in a heartbeat, and it has the facilities to do that seamlessly in dozens of places. There are probably clauses in the WABC-Rush contract that have been there since 1988, and the contract has passed from station owner to station owner since, and they are just not worth negotiating out. Rush was an independent contractor in the very beginning, and now appears to be Clear Channel employee, so you'd probably need a good contract lawyer to tell you how it all works even if you had the contract in front of you.

Bottom line, it still costs WABC to carry Rush.

Hannity does do his show from WABC and his syndication is handled by both Clear Channel and Cumulus. IIRC, Cumulus owns the rights to the show on its own stations, and Clear Channel's Premier unit handles all other syndication.

 

[radiophiler]

To answer a question from Mike in Delaware:

I don't know how much medium markets pay for Rush these days.

However, I can tell you that I worked at a medium market station in the 90s. The first time Rush's syndicator charged an annual fee, it was $3,000. However, when it came time to renew, they doubled it to $6,000.

That was 1995 ... 17 years ago.

Despite the 100% increase that year, let's say the annual increases in fees were a modest 5% each year. The same station would be paying almost $14,000 today. And that's if the annual increases were never above 5%.

If the increases were double that, 10% per year, the current fee would be about $22,000.

If they are much more than that ... you're getting close to the salary for a local talk show host.

One factor that hasn't been brought up in all this: Advertisers saying they don't want to be on Rush. It got a lot of play this year. But there have been some advertisers who have always (not just after Rush says something controversial) said that they don't want their ads on his show. And yes, this doesn't just go for Rush. Add Hannity and Beck to the list. Of the three, I would wager Hannity makes advertisers the least nervous. We had local advertisers who said they didn't want their commercials on Rush.

In my experience, Rush definitely did do one thing for the station I worked for: He brought a lot of attention and new listeners to the station. That's worth something. That's why I think IQ might take the 3 daytime conservative syndicated shows for three years or so, but just like WPHT, dump them when IQ is firmly established as Philly's FM news/talk station, and eventually employ their own local hosts, which would be better for the station's bottom line.

If that happens, Clear Channel will have to do what they did in Boston: Launch their own news talk station. WRKO Boston dropped Rush. Greater Media didn't want him on its FM news talker. CC was force to launch its own news talk station on a poor AM frequency that had previously aired Spanish programming.

CC just bought WFNX-FM in Boston. Its alternative format is definitely going away. It will be interesting to see if CC simulcasts its horribly performing AM news talk station on the new FM signal. If they don't, it will be a strong commentary about the viability of Rush et al in major northeastern city markets in the eyes of the country's largest radio station owner.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Radiophiler and Time is Tight, thank you both. I learned some new things about how all this works. It does get complicated. Thank you.

 

[joshzz]

Really enjoyed all the responses to Rush moves. One thing hasn't been mentioned is that he attracts a very narrow audience. His audience is overwhelmingly male and not just conservative but a specific kind of character that is unique. I am conservative and have no interest whatsoever in listening to him but the kind of male that listens to him embraces him as though anything he says is fact. It's hard to imagine this but that is the case. They are males that want to be told what to believe, what to think, and what to do. If Rush says it, to them it's true.

 

[pab]

josh: To be fair, that's not really the case. Rush nowadays doesn't dictate a point of view as much as reflect one. But you are correct that he attracts a narrow audience. When he started out in the late 80's the show was markedly different to what it is today and attracted a much wider listener base but over time it has come to be little more than confirmation of a certain narrow viewpoint.

And you are correct that Rush (and other conservative talk, heck most political talk period) attracts a mainly male audience, which makes the WWIQ format an odd choice for Merlin, which in other markets has been chasing a largely FEMALE audience.

 

[aindik]

Everyone in radio attracts a narrow audience.

 

[pab]

Everyone in radio attracts a narrow audience.

But some are narrower than others.

 

[Robbien]

Tomorrow, listen to the start of Smerconish's show. I heard it today for about 10 minutes then he began talking about something completely irrelevant and lost me, as usual. But the point is that he opens by saying: "This show is brought to you by the law firm of Klein and Specter." I looked it up. He's of Counsel there, not practicing of course. The best part, they are personal injury lawyers. So now it makes sense. Rush cost money and Smerco is essentially brokering time. It truly was a win win for PHT. Dump the King for an ambulance chaser who got his firm to essentially cover the cost of his show. Win. Win. Come to think of it, Grimaldi is a lawyer, I think Zeoli is too. Wonder if their firms do the same. Either way, Smerco is their prime attraction, brokering time. Pathetic.

 

[uncamark]

Tomorrow, listen to the start of Smerconish's show. I heard it today for about 10 minutes then he began talking about something completely irrelevant and lost me, as usual. But the point is that he opens by saying: "This show is brought to you by the law firm of Klein and Specter." I looked it up. He's of Counsel there, not practicing of course. The best part, they are personal injury lawyers. So now it makes sense. Rush cost money and Smerco is essentially brokering time. It truly was a win win for PHT. Dump the King for an ambulance chaser who got his firm to essentially cover the cost of his show. Win. Win. Come to think of it, Grimaldi is a lawyer, I think Zeoli is too. Wonder if their firms do the same. Either way, Smerco is their prime attraction, brokering time. Pathetic.

How is someone whose show is syndicated by Dial Global time brokering? Could it be that Smerconish's firm is buying spot time on their own?