September '21 book

[tbolt909]

Let me explain something, I still do not think ratings are valid. It's an archaic system, and I am NOT happy with a 3.7

Why not? 3.7 is a respectable rating for WECK. As you said, it's beating stations with better signals. It may not be a 5 share, but it's still good. If the clients and listeners are satisfied--mission accomplished. It's not realistic to expect an Oldies format to attract many 25--50 year olds. It serves the 50+ audience well...

 

[Buddy Shula]

Why not? 3.7 is a respectable rating for WECK. As you said, it's beating stations with better signals. It may not be a 5 share, but it's still good. If the clients and listeners are satisfied--mission accomplished...

It's good, but we can do better, and we will. We are #6 35 plus, and the upper demos are where we focus on, but it would be nice to get that 4 share I have always wanted. We will keep trying for sure.

 

[Buddy Shula]

This is a fair assessment, but the objective question is, what happens when those stations stop "getting so much worse" or actually go up?

§

Assessing the latest Persons 12+reveals some interesting points.

Comparing September '21 to August '21

6 stations went up, of those six, WBLK +1.4 and WMSX +0.8, posted the largest gains.

7 stations went down, one of which was a pubcaster, Classical WNED

2 stations remained point-to-point flat, 97 Rock and WBFO

4 stations lost more than 0.5 share or greater: WYRK, WBEN, WHTT, WTSS

1 station lost more than 1 share: WYRK

However, statistically speaking, if we use Dave Eduardo's earlier notation that +/- 1 share can be construed as flat, only one radio station showed a significant loss (WYRK); only one station showed a significant gain (WBLK).

Comparing September '21 (Summer) to June '21 (Spring)

6 stations went up, WGR (+0.5); WMSX (+0.8); WECK (+1.1); WEDG (+0.1); WBUF (+0.3) and WLKK (+0.6); of those WECK (+1.1) and WMSX (+0.8) posted the largest gains

8 stations went down, WYRK (-0.9); WGRF (-0.5); WKSE (-0.7); WBEN (-2.6); WHTT (-0.6); WTSS (-1.1); WBFO (-0.9); WNED (-0.6) Two of the eight stations that went down are pubcasters.

1 station remained point-to-point flat, WBLK

8 stations (all of those that went down) lost 0.5 share or greater

2 stations lost more than 1.0 share, WBEN and WTSS

1 station gained more than 1.0 share, WECK (+1.1)

I am just curious why WECK is not in part 1 of your post. It's just in part 2

 

[Buddy Shula]

This is a fair assessment, but the objective question is, what happens when those stations stop "getting so much worse" or actually go up?

§

Assessing the latest Persons 12+reveals some interesting points.

Comparing September '21 to August '21

6 stations went up, of those six, WBLK +1.4 and WMSX +0.8, posted the largest gains.

7 stations went down, one of which was a pubcaster, Classical WNED

2 stations remained point-to-point flat, 97 Rock and WBFO

4 stations lost more than 0.5 share or greater: WYRK, WBEN, WHTT, WTSS

1 station lost more than 1 share: WYRK

However, statistically speaking, if we use Dave Eduardo's earlier notation that +/- 1 share can be construed as flat, only one radio station showed a significant loss (WYRK); only one station showed a significant gain (WBLK).

Comparing September '21 (Summer) to June '21 (Spring)

6 stations went up, WGR (+0.5); WMSX (+0.8); WECK (+1.1); WEDG (+0.1); WBUF (+0.3) and WLKK (+0.6); of those WECK (+1.1) and WMSX (+0.8) posted the largest gains

8 stations went down, WYRK (-0.9); WGRF (-0.5); WKSE (-0.7); WBEN (-2.6); WHTT (-0.6); WTSS (-1.1); WBFO (-0.9); WNED (-0.6) Two of the eight stations that went down are pubcasters.

1 station remained point-to-point flat, WBLK

8 stations (all of those that went down) lost 0.5 share or greater

2 stations lost more than 1.0 share, WBEN and WTSS

1 station gained more than 1.0 share, WECK (+1.1)

Walls street stations are NOT going to start getting better. It would happen. Radio audience is not growing. They will continue to go down unless of your occasional "wobble". In essence, WECK will have the same type of shares as WHTT or WGRF eventually. Which means WECK will be essentially worth what those stations will be worth. Revenue and cash flow come into play also, but WECK is in VERY MUCH better shape than those stations. Just go to AOL money.com or something and look at those daily financial reports of net profit and margins. These folks aint gonna last for long.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

I am just curious why WECK is not in part 1 of your post. It's just in part 2

Four stations were not included in the first sentence following "Comparing September '21 to August '21" which specifically noted only the two stations that saw the largest gains.

In similar analytical writing form, WECK was mentioned in the first sentence following "Comparing September '21 (Summer) to June '21 (Spring)" which (again) specifically noted only the two stations that saw the largest gains. This section, however, notes each of the stations that went up because the section compares a (complete) Summer book to a (complete) Spring book.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Significant bump for The Wolf??? From a 0.8 to a 1.3. You set the bar really low. The AM station WWWS also has a 1.3. The Wolf is unlikely to ever hit a 2 share and will have no impact on WYRK or anything else.

If you understood rating methodology you'd understand that the current rating is the first one as "The Wolf" without months of "Alt" ratings included. A jump from 0.8 to 1.3 indicates that they burned off the old audience and started to build a new one. In reality, September had to be much higher to offset July and August - the transition month.

We'll see where they go, but it appears that there's weakness at WYRK and some of those listeners are sampling just up the dial. Whether they like what they hear remains to be seen.

WBUF is a mess and TSM seems to be in disarray. Let's see what the new Brand Manager does (or doesn't do) before we declare them dead. This ain't Tik Tok where you get instant gratification.

OK, now "Lake Country" can chime in to explain how you're right.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Let me remind everyone that this was the equivalent of a "Summer Book." You know, the one that advertisers usually ignored because summer listening patterns were usually out of character with the rest of the year. Of course, with Covid, listening patterns have been askew for the last 18 months, and we're still not out of the woods.

 

[MarkW]

Clowsquare is doing a lousy job programming many of its rock and classic rock stations these days (see Albany for a great example). The poor performance of WBUF is of little surprise.

The station needs to ditch the morning show from Grand Rapids.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Let me remind everyone that this was the equivalent of a "Summer Book." You know, the one that advertisers usually ignored because summer listening patterns were usually out of character with the rest of the year. Of course, with Covid, listening patterns have been askew for the last 18 months, and we're still not out of the woods.

Advertisers no longer ignore this “book”, all 12 months are now important. They ignored it in the 1980s when there were 4 books

 

[Buddy Shula]

Four stations were not included in the first sentence following "Comparing September '21 to August '21" which specifically noted only the two stations that saw the largest gains.

In similar analytical writing form, WECK was mentioned in the first sentence following "Comparing September '21 (Summer) to June '21 (Spring)" which (again) specifically noted only the two stations that saw the largest gains. This section, however, notes each of the stations that went up because the section compares a (complete) Summer book to a (complete) Spring book.

Gotcha

 

[CassChopper96]

That Star 102.5 performs so poorly as a Hot AC, and continues to slide, is most intriguing, especially when considering the Person 25-54 numbers that were "accidentally" briefly posted here last month, which showed that Kiss far outperformed Star in that breakout. Is Hot AC dead, or is the product so bland that it excites fewer potential listners... or is Star poorly programmed?

Hot AC is far from a dead format. There are many AC, HOT AC stations that are doing just fine. WTSS just fluctuates all too much. I wonder how they do in certain demos

 

[davideduardo]

Let me remind everyone that this was the equivalent of a "Summer Book." You know, the one that advertisers usually ignored because summer listening patterns were usually out of character with the rest of the year. Of course, with Covid, listening patterns have been askew for the last 18 months, and we're still not out of the woods.

And now those continuous measurement diary markets have no "summer book" and agencies just use a multi-book average, anyway..

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Hot AC is far from a dead format. There are many AC, HOT AC stations that are doing just fine. WTSS just fluctuates all too much. I wonder how they do in certain demos.

Star at one time did very well in its target demo, Women 25-49. But based on the brief, accidental posting of Persons 25-54 (Summer 2021, Phase 1) a few months back, Star was in 11th place, spanked by Kiss 98^5 its CHR sister, which was in 3rd place with twice the share.

In posts #4 and #5 of this thread, the Big A and David Eduardo make good observations, (#4) regarding WYRK and the Wolf, about sharing listeners; and (#5) the impact of an Oldies format on a Classic Hits format.

As it relates to sharing: There might enough sharing between Hot AC Star and CHR Kiss, that Kiss siphons off more share points than usual. So Kiss "drinks Star's milkshake." It could also be that the state of AC is so actively CHR-centric that AC listeners actually find Kiss to be more attractive than Star.

Also, Buffalo being a fairly strong Country market, it could be that WYRK, like many well-programmed Country stations, is siphoning listeners from Hot AC Star. That's been documented in various phases in various markets over the years, in some cases due to the cycle of music released by Country and AC artists/groups.

And now, there's a Country competitor to WYRK. So as Big A noted, WYRK very likely is sharing some of its listeners with the Wolf, especially during those eight minute commercial breaks on WYRK. But Hot AC listeners also may be sampling the Wolf as well, which would have a negative impact on Star. And, with no malice intended, there's always the chance that Star is a radio station whose programming needs to be more closely tended to.

As to the impact of Oldies, there are two variables going on that may impact Star. First, Oldies may be siphoning a few listeners from Hot AC Star as well as Classic Hits WHTT. Oldies is a "family friendly" format that offers an alternative, albeit older music, to Hot AC. Second, it may be that Classic Hits, which was in 10th place in the aforementioned accident posting Persons 25-54, is siphoning listeners from Star (11th). This would be my guess, given that Classic Hits is so 80s-centric, and Tears For Fears, Michael Jackson, The Police, Genesis and The Pretenders (among many others) made some great music 40 years ago that stands the test of time and sounds very contemporary in the face of some of the stuff being played on Hot AC these days.

 

[tbolt909]

So here is what will happen and is happening. Listenership is going down, but it’s not extinct. The traditional big share stations will go down to a B type share level, thus, putting them in the same place as everyone else including WECK. Essentially, WECK is growing by default, as I always knew it would. We are beating big signal stations, not because we are getting so much better, but they are getting so much worse.

Buddy paints a bleak picture for Radio. If a "Rising Tide Lifts All Boats", then the reverse is true. As listenership dwindles, so will revenue. These stations are losing value with every passing year. What are WBEN and WECK worth if they were for sale? Who would buy them? AM is dead in most markets and even powerhouse FMs aren't worth much. A used car may be worth more than a Radio station right now(yes an exaggeration). Car dealers are scrambling to find cars to sell due to limited inventory because of the chip shortage...

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Let me remind everyone that this was the equivalent of a "Summer Book." You know, the one that advertisers usually ignored because summer listening patterns were usually out of character with the rest of the year. Of course, with Covid, listening patterns have been askew for the last 18 months, and we're still not out of the woods.

And now those continuous measurement diary markets have no "summer book" and agencies just use a multi-book average, anyway..

This may be a case where old habits linger, as David noted in the June 21 Ratings thread, Post #21, Jul 24,2021 ↓

In the diary markets that have "continuous measurement" there are no season books, just monthly releases that cover the prior 12 weeks. Only in markets where there are only two books or just one is there a release named after a season.

Still, I think many of use will still call the Apr-May-Jun book "Spring" anyway.

And some of the industry data services like BIA show only the quarters, not the months and they use the traditional seasonal names. Maybe this is a case of "there is no wrong answer".

 

[SirRoxalot]

Buddy paints a bleak picture for Radio. If a "Rising Tide Lifts All Boats", then the reverse is true. As listenership dwindles, so will revenue. These stations are losing value with every passing year. What are WBEN and WECK worth if they were for sale? Who would buy them? AM is dead in most markets and even powerhouse FMs aren't worth much. A used car may be worth more than a Radio station right now(yes an exaggeration). Car dealers are scrambling to find cars to sell due to limited inventory because of the chip shortage...

So you'll be able to trade in your used car, buy a radio station, put "The Lake" back on the air, and the money will roll in. Listeners will flock and you'll be able to show everybody, including Buddy, how it should be done.

 

[tbolt909]

So you'll be able to trade in your used car, buy a radio station, put "The Lake" back on the air, and the money will roll in. Listeners will flock and you'll be able to show everybody, including Buddy, how it should be done.

It's odd that you always bring The Lake back into the conversation. I didn't mention it. The Wolf will generate no revenue. WYRK can cut their ad rates and will always be the better value for clients. The Wolf will be the "Doller A Holler" station. WYRK currently has a 8.2 share. They could drop to a 5 share and it's still no contest. Buddy is right about the overall decline. Smaller pie for everyone.

WBUF will get nowhere with its current content. You obviously can't grasp that a unique format can actually create listener passion. Yeah, we know it doesn't matter if anyone cares about content. It's absurd that people like David say AAA listeners are over 55 and "too old", but it's okay for Oldies listeners to be over 65. If Buddy is turning a profit, then he's proving all the experts wrong. Good for him...

 

[Buddy Shula]

Buddy's got GREAT people....You figure out whether Buddy is making a profit

 

[TheBigA]

The Wolf will generate no revenue.

It generated revenue from the first day of the new format. If you have factual information to share on the station's revenue, post it.

 

[Buddy Shula]

It generated revenue from the first day of the new format. If you have factual information to share on the station's revenue, post it.

BigA is totally correct. As an alternative to YRK , of course it is going to generate more revenue than the alternative format. Like I have said, Wolf won’t do anything special in ratings, but it will make more money than before, especially with local direct clients. Lots more money

YRK has kept its rate integrity, as it should, and that rate is often too much for the average local direct client to pay and get results, as they pay a lot to achieve frequency. Radio is about frequency, not reach.

When I was at WNUC for 5 years while it was 2nd to YRK, I was billing $500k per year direct. Because, clients could own the station for less, cresting greater frequency. They reached less people, but they reached less people, more times. That is key.

I am not sure of the sales staff Audacy has, or if they have a passion for country, but if they do, they will do very well. That’s the whole Ramon I wanted to buy it, for the direct local advertisers, not the ratings.

I had been telling them to switch country for 20 years. Now, let me be clear, I believe they chose the wrong type of country format, mine would have been more gold based, to not copy YRK, but the decision to go country was the right one. It’s a rural geography. It started out as the farm network. But it also has very good coverage in the parts of WNY that matter, and it includes Rochester as added value.

I would buy that stick any day. They can easily do a million net billing, if the sales dept buys in