I went back and plugged in the Buffalo population data, the diary sample size and those ratings numbers. It would appear that the 2.6, the 2.5 and the 2.3 are all the same number. In fact, anything from about a 1.8 to a 3.2 are the same number. And considering the fairly narrow older demo targeting of the station, the range may be greater.
And then, the 1.4 looks like sampling error as the number is an outlier.
The same explanation applies for the 1 to 2 point wobbles with the leading stations: sample error sometimes, and statistical range other times. There is probably a better probability that a station will go up or down due to statistical sampling's margin of error on that sample size than due to programming changes.
Right. So Mix and Jack, which had wretched Spring books, have wobbles and wiggles too. Stations get "kissed" and "robbed." Arguably, WHTT got a big wet kiss, while WBEN may have been robbed. Four book averages tell a story, a deeper and more revealing story than Persons 12+ .
Tall Thin One appears to have access to the Programmers package, wherein detailed information and graphics about each station are revealed. I doubt that he/she (cuz y'never know on these boards) is some beer guzzlin' dummy. In fact, it appears most posters/readers here know a thing or two about the business, either from their days selling radio or working in the business, or having friends or family who were or are still in the business. There are also a number of geeks like me.
I'm told of the the nomograph that appeared in the back pages of the (then) Arbitron hard copy reports. It was a tool that explained Arbtron methodology and statistics, there for anybody who had the time and determination to read and apply it. For most programmers, the charts were akin to Boolean math. Few radio people excelled in Statistics 401, but they sure knew how to interpret the final product, the numbers on the pages, and apply that information to improving their stations and detecting weaknesses in their formats and those of their competitors.
It occurs to me that most people who post here like and know the business of radio. They also have a well-trained BS detector. If you come here solely for accolades, making pronouncements and chest thumping, be prepared to receive a rebuttal. Everybody loves to be loved; nobody enjoys being told who or what to love. In the end, we come here to waste a little time, get our radio rocks off, learn and sometimes spar. Nobody goes home with a bloody nose or chest wounds requiring surgery. Still, it's no place for the thin skinned.
As a sage programmer once wrote, "When you're bragging about your station getting a 10 share, try to remember the 90 shares that got away." From a respected sales manager who went on to head a national rep firm, "Every time I close a deal, I try not to get too full of myself. I think of the money I may have left on the table."