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Taking Bets Now - How long until Fresh is history?

B

Brooklyndon

Let's do some quick math:

Since '99 the format on WNEW has lasted 1204 day for one instance (Hot TalK), 359 days in another instance (Blink), and then 737 (Mix). This means that mean shelf life for a format at 102.7 for the last 8 years is 766 days with a standard deviation of 345 days.

Which means, statistically speaking, that there is a 50% chance that 102.7 will have a new format in as soon as 283 days or as late as 1249 days. So, I'm willing to bet that sees 102.7 flip between September 2007 and June 2009.

***note I am using Chebyshev rules to determine the 50% probability, if this data is normally distributed (we'd need 102.7 to flip at least 50 times to see) then the odds shoot up to like 80%, in that case the 50/50 line gets much closer to Mid-february 2009. In fact, I'd be willing to make a market where I have the timespand between November 2008 and June 2009.
 
A lot of time on your hands today, I see? ;)

On a more serious note, I actually think Fresh has a chance to last fairly long, perhaps with PLJ-like success (mediocre ratings but chopping enough from their competitors and doing well enough in billing and core demos to be successful).
 
It seems that the CBS Radio executives are willing to stick with a failing format. I am surprised that JACK-FM is still at 101.1 FM after 19 months. I think for Fresh 102.7 to succeed it must take a significant number of listeners away from WLTW.
 
Explain why they wont. If enough listeners are curious enough to try what's on 102.7 and like it, they'll stick with it. Yes, I know, most office radios seem to be padlocked on 106.7, but consider this...

Even though Lite FM is known as an at-work station, one of the keys to Lite's success was retaining many of its listeners in non-work dayparts. JJ Kennedy's evening show beat some other strong NYC stations in the ratings. Perhaps those listeners are not too crazy about the sap-filled Delilah show and might give 102.7 a try. Maybe they'll have it on in their cars as they drive home from work or the shops and leave it there when they go home. The next morning when they get in their cars again, they might like what 102.7 has to offer in the mornings as well, especially if they can get a familiar name with previous success, such as Bill Buchner, to do mornings, as has been rumored. That's one way in which they can possibly build an audience.

Plus, all they really have to do to be successful is siphon off even a third of Lite's audience and maybe a bit from PLJ and other stations. They may still remain in mediocre territory (perhaps mid-2's) but as long as they are scoring well with their target demo, and especially if they are billing well (which is a strong possibility since AC will be a fairly easy sell to advertisers), the format will be successful. They could be the AC version of PLJ...less than stellar numbers but strong demos and billing.

As for Jack, the station is trending upwards, especially 25-54. I believe I read they are up to 9th place overall. Not strong, but getting better. I wouldn't say the station is totally failing, actually, Mix 102.7 was doing worse. CBS is definitely going to stick with it, at least for another year or two to see if the audience continues to grow. A telling sign is that I have heard Jack on in a few establishments I've been to, in recent weeks.

Something to consider: If Fresh manages to shave off a few tenths from PLJ's share, and Jack continues its slow growth, it's entirely possible that we may see Jack surpass PLJ. Jack is only a few tenths back as it is.
 
BruceS8852 said:
It seems that the CBS Radio executives are willing to stick with a failing format. I am surprised that JACK-FM is still at 101.1 FM after 19 months. I think for Fresh 102.7 to succeed it must take a significant number of listeners away from WLTW.
Click to expand...

Not really. LTW's numbers are so vast and the cume so large that Fresh only has to flank it and shave off some of their ratings and they would succeed. If they could get even one third of Lite's ratings they would be doing better than they have done in a few years. I bet that is the play.
 
Brooklyndon said:
***note I am using Chebyshev rules to determine the 50% probability, if this data is normally distributed (we'd need 102.7 to flip at least 50 times to see)
Click to expand...

Give 'em another year or two. :D

They should have changed the calls to WPIX and be done with it. :p
 
I dont think that Fresh will last that long of life. I believe that another format flip at the end of 2007 may be in store.

Prove me wrong.
 
Fresh is a flanker. The purpose is to lower LTW's stranglehold on the top spot. They'll survive nicely in the low to mid 2's 12+ & top 10 25-54.
 
Pretty sad when people think of a major New York signal doing a low to mid 2's a success.
 
Bet on it. This format will be on for a while. They have no other ideas. CBS is not going to take any chances whatsoever. They'll lbe happy to break even. Besides, isn't Google buying them? Who knows what changes that will bring.
 
Mr. DUBbonet said:
Pretty sad when people think of a major New York signal doing a low to mid 2's a success.
Click to expand...

Um...last time I looked one rating point 12 plus in the New York market is worth millions of dollars in
revenue. A 6 share generally takes the market. So, a 2 can be respectable, if not a market leader.

Isn't WFAN usually somewhere in the 2-3 share range 12 plus? It's been one of the higher billing stations in America on numerous occasions.
 
Has anyone ever stopped to think that the reason that things are in some opinions so bad in radio is BECAUSE the second anyone tries anything new or different idiots crap on it immediately?. The station has not even been on the air for 24 hours and here some dope is predicting it's demise. Meantime everyone dumped all over Mix 102.7 on this board, calling for a format change. So they did it, and because it's not country, or whatever other format that people kept trying to promote here automatically it's no good?.

Why would anything change when people dump on everything FOR changing?.
 
The hot-ish a/c format of "Fresh" is a good idea at a good time - it just has to be executed properly. And, it is much too early to make judgements about how well this is being done. Personally, I'm not so keen on the "Fresh" moniker - or on "Fresh music" consisting of an overly burned out 10-year old song. But, I'm not a 35-44 year old woman either.

Thanks to some really DUMB moves over at Clear Channel, WLTW is more vulnerable than it has been in years. They say "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" yet CC did just that over at Lite. Firing well-known personalities and installing syndicated programming at market #1 in order to save a few bucks were truly short-sighted moves.

The poster who made the point about Fresh as being an alternative to the sappy (horrible-IMO) Delilah program is absolutely right. Delilah is not the kind of program that will ever do well in New York and will probably tend to repel many listeners over time. This could be an excellent opportunity for CBS radio to get those ears listening to Fresh and to really eat into WLTW's big ratings. If they do it right - they could even someday grab as much as HALF of Lite's current audience. Naturally, it will take time to build such an audience, but there's no reason why it couldn't - if the station is programmed well.

No, I think CBS will stay with this format for a while. It could be a winner.
 
Here is a question for everyone. Do you think CBS are taking calculated risk's? I site example's...

1, Killing off WCBS FM in favour of JACK. Even though 12+ is pretty low, there target demo is increasing. At the end of the day, they saw the writing on the wall and decided to be PRO-ACTIVE, rather than RE-ACTIVE.

2, Re-inventing the AC wheel (with FRESH 102.7), to take on the market leader (maybe take out PLJ along the way???). With some money for marketing, it could work. Shame it didn't happen before Christmas, as it may have effect LITE's numbers.

Time will tell if the risk's pay off. I think they will.
 
Lee Anderson said:
Here is a question for everyone. Do you think CBS are taking calculated risk's? I site example's...

1, Killing off WCBS FM in favour of JACK. Even though 12+ is pretty low, there target demo is increasing. At the end of the day, they saw the writing on the wall and decided to be PRO-ACTIVE, rather than RE-ACTIVE.

2, Re-inventing the AC wheel (with FRESH 102.7), to take on the market leader (maybe take out PLJ along the way???). With some money for marketing, it could work. Shame it didn't happen before Christmas, as it may have effect LITE's numbers.

Time will tell if the risk's pay off. I think they will.
Click to expand...

I totally agree. CBS Radio does seem to finally have a strategy. Time will tell if it works, but I feel that it will, especially in the case of Fresh. Jack can still go either way but their demo numbers are improving. If Fresh manages to take some listeners away from PLJ, that can also have a side effect of helping Jack.
 
That is a shame that a 2 share is considered good,,,but times are changing,this is 2007.the days of a company have a 7 or 8 share or more or gone with Howard.Look around,poeple in the city have cells with music,Ipods,and i saw about 20 portable satellite setups.They are not wearing there headphones awaiting the arrival of 102.7 latest format of the month.
 
I just did the math for the New York metro (12+ only because that's the only data I had access to), and the mean share for 2nd half Fall '06 is 2.13, with a standard deviation of 1.57. Now this data is abnormally distributed, so if you wanted to you ad dollars to go to the top 25% of stations then you'd advertise with any station pulling over 4.328 share. Obviously, 12+ is meaningless, but the data proves that a 2 share is really, really mediocre and a horrible investment for advertizers.

I mean radio is just brand management now, pay per click generates the leads, radio is about selling soap and razors - and more importantly what these soaps and razors stand for, and you need broad market share to be sellable. Maybe that's why CBS is standardizing the product, a national product can be sold to national companies by one sales guy based in New York as opposed to hundreds of regional sales staff who can't close national deals anyway because their territory definition is too strict.

Either way, only one other person has chimes in for their expected departure of the Fresh format.
 
I agree with the brand management part of the equation. The NYC market has gone through some compression over the past year or so and the fluctuations haven't settled yet. When all is said & done, a 5.0 12+ will be the top dog. (not 6.0-7.0) Obviously target demos are what will ultimately make the dollars. My question is, who will go after SBS? They're bound to have the top 2 stations in market numero uno!
 
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