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[Radknowski]

<font face="times new roman" size="3" color="330066">
Check this article in the Wall Street Journal.

Read it. Digest it. Then tell me what the over/under is on Sirius making any money in the next year. Despite all the hoopla and projections, it's still under water. If you're a Sirius subscriber or share holder, gues who's getting a hefty chunk of your investment? Yeah, the king of all self promotion. Dividends?

Now, how about that announcement from Apple about an iPod FM receiver attachment. And what about broadband and cell phone radio.

Not a penny shall this painter spend on Sirius or XM.

 

[Yeziknoradio]

They're offering a 3 day free trial...give it a li..never mind. Yeziknosirius&XM just isn't my name...LOL!<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>

 

[Mark_Giardina]

2+2= 5

All one has to do is the math to determine that both Sirius and XM are swimming in a sea of red ink.

$12.95 a month for 12 months equals $155.44 a year. One can buy a lot of CD’s with that kind of money.

Sirius claims to have three million subscribers. Once you add that up then subtract Stern’s $100 million dollar a year salary PLUS the salaries of other well known personalities, which leaves Sirius in serious trouble when it comes to having regular operating capital.

Both Sirius and XM eventually will have to do two things in order to remain solvent. One is to raise their monthly subscriber fee. And two is to start adding commercials to those channels currently not airing advertising.

Speaking of advertising, does anyone have an idea how many big name companies are spending money to promote their products on satellite radio?

Howard Stern can boast all he wants about satellite radio being the future. But like Rochester’s Fast Ferry fiasco, this puppy isn’t going to bark until it has some sturdy financial legs to stand on. And I just find it hard to believe that investors are going to wait around for five or perhaps ten years to see profits coming from their investments.

The only good thing that might come from satellite radio, perhaps, is that programmers of terrestrial radio will cease this insipid idea of filling the airwaves with syndicated, cue-card reading, voice tracking, automated jukeboxes that offer repetitious music formats, or talk shows featuring blowhards suffering from verbal diarrhea, which will only drive more people to purchase I Pods, CD’s or satellite radios.

<P ID="signature">______________
"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted and I won't be laid a hand on.
I don't do these things to other people and I expect the same from them".</P>

 

[SirRoxalot]

The King of All Hype Continues...

I know that Howard is claiming all the glory, but several other factors impact the growth of satellite radio.

First of all, satellite also grew at a faster than normal rate last year during the Christmas -er Holiday season. In fact, electronic stores like Best Buy and Circuit City had big seasons, as did electronic gadgets in general. The price of satellite receivers came down to the area formerly occupied by walkmans, and a lot cheaper than iPods. With a month or three of free service included, it became a perfect electronic version of the "gift tie" for some people. "Here, check this out. It's supposed to be cool!" BTW, you get to pay for the service if you like it.

Secondly, the sports lineup on Sirius includes the NFL, NHL, NBA, and some of the top college conferences. That's a pretty good reason for some people to pick Sirius over XM, which offers Major League Baseball, PGA, and Nascar. Golf on the radio? Now THERE'S some action for you. That makes baseball sound fast-paced. Sirius clearly wins here, especially if you're a rabid fan of a team whose broadcasts don't reach your area.

Let's see if the satellite guys start to reveal ACTUAL subscription numbers - not just units sold. With the marginal quality of the broadcasts, and the reception problems in many areas - especially on small portables - I'll bet that eBay will see a glut of receivers available by summertime.

Mel Karmazin has spent a LOT of money on content. The gamble is on. Sirius and XM may have a bigger future as providers of streaming Internet content than as actual satellite companies. In fact, 10 years from now, the satellite receiver may be as popular as the 8-track. I think that Sirius is a lot closer to Enron than Microsoft as a young company.

 

[topsound]

> Not a penny shall this painter spend on Sirius or XM.
>

Dunno if I would pony up on a monthly basis, but I did take the free online trial of XM, because I sampled their "60s on 6" channel and it's the best programmed and produced Oldies station I've ever heard.

XM and Sirius have taken different approaches: Sirius for the most part is investing in a talent/programming scheme that focuses on big names (driven by Mel Karmazin, ex-Infinity poobah). XM seems to be putting more into their music channels in terms of interesting presentation, features, interviews, etc. I prefer the latter, but again have not been convinced enough to plunk down.

I'm also investigating a number of Web-based sources. So far I have not yet found one that totally satisfies. I've sampled many Web stations, none of which have the sound or presentation quality that I'm looking for. I have Rhapsody (9.95 a month) that allows me to stream whatever/whenever I want (but no Beatles available!), and download for .89 a track. I was able to program my 25-year high school reunion music with a laptop for about 30 bucks between ripping CDs and downloading a few tracks. I also have set up a couple of stations for myself on LaunchCast, but the free version sticks in too much random junk.

I also programmed a little oldies station on Live365. It costs me 12.95 a month to maintain. Just music and a few bumpers thanks to Ben Freedman, an Amherst native who some of you may remember as involved with a number of jingle companies. Eventually I'd like to add some voice-tracking and features, but for now it is what it is. Here's a link that gets you there through my site (registration required on Live365):

http://www.theannouncers.com/radio.html

 

[OldAkronite]

Stern's Reportedly Paying For Himself

> Sirius claims to have three million subscribers. Once you
> add that up then subtract Stern’s $100 million dollar a year
> salary PLUS the salaries of other well known personalities,
> which leaves Sirius in serious trouble when it comes to
> having regular operating capital.

Except for one thing...it does appear Stern's move is "paying for itself" for the satcaster, if the figures being thrown around are correct.

Let's do the math again here:

We'll take that $155 a year for a regular subscription, and knock it down a little, even. For one, some folks are paying less than that in a yearly pre-pay, and some folks are even up for a "lifetime" subscription.

For kicks and grins, we'll average it down to about $125 a year. Just a guess on our part.

Sirius has added about 2 million subscribers in the time since Stern announced, and about 60% of those are said to be citing Stern as their reason for signing up.

That means 1.2 million have come to Sirius, according to published reports and estimates, just to hear him.

My calculator tells me that's 150 million bucks and change a year out of Sirius' Howard-loving subscribers, or roughly 50 million more than they're paying for the show in the first year of the contract. (By the way, a recent WSJ article reported that the $100 million a year is "the cost of the show", and includes all production costs and whatnot. And it's really only actually $80 million directly to Stern's production, with the rest in those much publicized stock options.)

Now, there are many problems that exist in this scenario. The most frightening for Sirius - do those folks signing up for Howard stick around? If someone's signing up month to month, they can cancel at any time, though they do have to unload the radio. Are they, and millions more, in for the 5 year long-haul of Stern's glittery contract?

Your main point is still quite correct, though. Both the satellite radio companies are building on a rather fragile house of cards, and have invested hundreds of millions of dollars hoping this all "clicks".

Even Stern's money doesn't bring Sirius anywhere remotely near profitability...remember how much they paid for the NFL rights, just to name one? How much did they pay for Martha Stewart? How much is XM throwing at MLB and Bob Dylan? The numbers are eyepopping, and only make sense if satellite radio becomes basically as ubitquous as satellite TV.

You get the idea. But Stern's contract is not the "problem" here, it's just one of a bunch of "problems" financially.

-OA<P ID="signature">______________
Ohio Media Watch - <a target="_blank" href=http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com>http://ohiomedia.blogspot.com</a></P>

 

[wired]

0n the 0ther hand...

> I know that Howard is claiming all the glory, but several
> other factors impact the growth of satellite radio.
>
I waited, and read each post..and no one mentioned
what are money-generating things that are working
and validating the above statement:

"...but several other factors impact the growth of satellite radio."

for starters, I am 99.9% percent(and too lazy to look) but I
believe with all NEW GM AUTO's ..i want to say, XM is now
a "standard option" I am not certain of the exact deal that
is set-up, but its possible that GM paid the satellite company
to want this, as a selling point. IF, in fact, it is actually
the other way around, that works too: as it will "Force" the
consumer to take advantage of 'what is already available/included'
and accerlate a subscription..

Same w/ the in-store displays, although, i am sure that each
company, respectively, is paying for that outta pocket.

 

[Yeziknoradio]

Re: 0n the 0ther hand...

And the points below are all very good, but this targets those who were already listening to cds in the car anyway, and how the sound "Is like listening to your cd" more than average Joe Local traffic report fan.

Drop by a local car dealer that is including XM or sirius, I believe the first question asked to you will be "You listen to cds in your car...right?" and then go on to show the cd drawer open... "See...no cd!"

Not a word or mention of how the music comes in handy while stuck in traffic that could have been avoided...gawd no!
(Too bad Jack doesn't "Get it"...unless Buffalo really DOES have a nice perfect world of no traffic trouble!)

> > I know that Howard is claiming all the glory, but several
> > other factors impact the growth of satellite radio.
> >
> I waited, and read each post..and no one mentioned
> what are money-generating things that are working
> and validating the above statement:
>
> "...but several other factors impact the growth of satellite
> radio."
>
> for starters, I am 99.9% percent(and too lazy to look) but I
>
> believe with all NEW GM AUTO's ..i want to say, XM is now
> a "standard option" I am not certain of the exact deal that
>
> is set-up, but its possible that GM paid the satellite
> company
> to want this, as a selling point. IF, in fact, it is
> actually
> the other way around, that works too: as it will "Force" the
>
> consumer to take advantage of 'what is already
> available/included'
> and accerlate a subscription..
>
> Same w/ the in-store displays, although, i am sure that each
>
> company, respectively, is paying for that outta pocket.
>
<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>

 

[alw]

Re: 0n the 0ther hand...

As the last person on earth to proclaim "(BLEEP), you'll never find me paying for television that I can get now for free", and the third guy to say " Hell no, I'll never pay for radio that I can get now for free".....the last time I looked my cable bill's about 100 bucks a month and Sirius gets about 35% of my ride to & from work.

I'm here to tell you - - get off the tracks, because the train's a commin'.

By the way, I'm also the guy who's spent (almost) an entire career on
AM radio.
How's that for riding the crest of the wave?
As a matter of fact, my voice fades away every time I drive under a viaduct.
(rim shot)

XM & Sirius are exciting new platforms: rather than hoping for their demise...
get on board.....I'll bet if one were to get a call from one of them regarding a job offer, all the negatives would miraculously fade away. If I were a few years younger, I'd be hounding satellite program directors until they caved and hired me just to shut me up (much the way I did to Jerry Adams,Possum Riley, & Jeff Kaye).

Satellite is not the enemy, it's just another way to foist one's self upon the unsuspecting public. Go with it!

 

[Element9]

Re: 0n the 0ther hand...

Satellite is not the enemy, it's just another way to foist one's self upon the unsuspecting public.

"Foist" being the key word and a good one at that.

 

[radio_is_dead]

>
> Not a penny shall this painter spend on Sirius or XM.
>

Embrace change or be left behind. Face it, radio is dead.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Wanna Bet?

> Embrace change or be left behind. Face it, radio is dead.

I've got $50.00 that says satellite won't equal either the number of listeners or amount of revenue that terrestrial radio generates within the next five years.

That's a sucker bet, by the way. I'm almost willing to bet that satellite won't be a common music delivery system in five years because high-speed wireless Internet will replace it in most populated areas.

Expect both Sirius and XM to cut deals with cellular providers within the next two years.

 

[Yeziknoradio]

Re: 0n the 0ther hand...

My focus is heavy on what XM and Sirus DO NOT have, because Local matters to me.

I do apreciate Those services though, but only as long as it forces radio stations to become more local.<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>

 

[Yeziknoradio]

Re: Wanna Bet?

> Expect both Sirius and XM to cut deals with cellular
> providers within the next two years.
>
TWO? How about now? Why not?


<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>

 

[SirRoxalot]

Re: Wanna Bet?

> > Expect both Sirius and XM to cut deals with cellular
> > providers within the next two years.
> >
> TWO? How about now? Why not?

Most of the cell guys aren't ready to deliver high speed Internet at at reasonable price yet. That will change.

 

[Yeziknoradio]

Re: Wanna Bet?

> > > Expect both Sirius and XM to cut deals with cellular
> > > providers within the next two years.
> > >
> > TWO? How about now? Why not?
>
> Most of the cell guys aren't ready to deliver high speed
> Internet at at reasonable price yet. That will change.
>
In Canada, Rogers or Bell may be working on this right now, but,
if the plan goes ahead, there most likely will be limited selection, not the full service. Sort of like how the Bell Tv cell phones only have 10 channels today.
Plus, Rogers is already in bed with itunes(exclusive rights to Motorola rokr)...so, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

<P ID="signature">______________
"If you never say NO, How much is your YES worth?"
</P>

 

[wired]

Nationwide, "Network"

> My focus is heavy on what XM and Sirus DO NOT have, because
> Local matters to me.
>
> I do apreciate Those services though, but only as long as it
> forces radio stations to become more local.
>
What i am shocked about...how "XM"(for -X-ample) can't..have
a 'canned'/or pre-loaded segment, to "Plug" into listeners
receiving the transmission in a *VERY* specific location..using
global positioning capabilites..say, when a car is at
latitude/longitude(erie county) hears..a quick traffic update
on the 290-east elmwood-exit #1 accident..and, then as that car
contiunes on the road trip and drives that XM receiver, over the PA Line..
and continues on another local traffic is generated..

yea, it is "crazy" to have 300-400 traffic reports 'just ready' to go..
but, have the wpan submit their updates electronically, and of
course local AM/FM stations could accomondate XM >>(for a price) !!!
-
it isnt new to business, to have competitor's do some of your dirty
work..there are reports, of GM contracting out to Ford, to make
parts for their cars; it has been documented of company A helping
out Company B only to hopefully, kick their ass in later....