I think that a 3 share 12+ would be a bit dramatic for the time being. Think more like a 3.4 or 3.7 for starters. Rick Dees will be the driving force behind Movin' 93.9 and don't think for a moment that his loyal following has forgotten about his uncerimonious departure. Your Move.....
So pilot, (and anyone else) how much of the pie are we talking about re. KMVN? Hispanic females (lets see females generally are 50% of the listenership out there) 25-44 (50% of what... who knows?). So we are then left with a figure that will be divided by what radio stations?
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Given the generally higher TSL of Hispanics whether Spanish or English dominant, this one could be good for a 3 share. Jammin' Oldies was an attempt after the same demo, and gut to that range and could not hold it. The fact that Movin' has a recurrent base and has much stronger songs than much of the Jammin' library makes it definitely a station that could assemble a 3. I see about 0.8 to 1.0 coming form KIIS, with a 0.7 to 0.8 coming form KBIT, about a 0.7 from KHHT, and a bit of the rest coming from all over, including Spanish stations like KLVE and, particularly, KSSE.
Women 25-44 are about 19% of the market, population wise. Hispanic women are about 50% of that (the market is 50% or more Hispanic under age 45), so we have 10% of the market, and a group that TSLs about 25% obove the average. So there are about 12 shares for Hispanic women in this demo, and about 6 of them for and English station. Add in non-Hispanic white suburban women who like rhymic CHR without hip hop, and there are probably 9 total shares to draw from. If they can cume 60% and get good P1 or P2 TSL, a 3 is certainly not looking too high.
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