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The numbers

david, the fact that you misunderstood the comments is not my problem, yet you managed to write a new diatribe about another miunderstanding on your part...I never said anything about undocumneted imigrants or "illegal aliens" as you like to call them. I said audience.

Univision has a large portion of its audience that is documented and still gets paid under the table (cash for services rendered). THAT, is a VERY large portion of the Univision audience...those are the economic factors I am referring to. The IE is a huge growth area for any company that is in broadcasting to hispanics...I hope there are others reading this that are aware that Univision is clearly out of the game there.

In all honesty, how would you come up with something so sinister as paying for ad buys, there was no reference to that whatsoever...
 
purdyum said:
david, the fact that you misunderstood the comments is not my problem, yet you managed to write a new diatribe about another miunderstanding on your part...I never said anything about undocumneted imigrants or "illegal aliens" as you like to call them. I said audience.

At the risk of having this thread in the TIO section, where it now belongs, I'd suggest you reread my posts. First, the term I use is "illegal immigrants" and not "illegal aliens." An immigrant is one who comes from one jurisdiction to another. One who is illegal does so without necessary documents or permits.

Univision has a large portion of its audience that is documented and still gets paid under the table (cash for services rendered).

I thoroughly doubt that one company which operates radio properties in LA has any more sub rosa, cash economy listeners than any other. All sections of society have underground economies, and have for centuries.

As I said, the measured audience in LA or anywhere in the US is likely very scant on illegal immigrants or any others who would not be on a payroll, etc. Remember, the person who pays a cash salary is not going to be able to deduct the expense on their taxes, so you have both employer and employee in the underground sector.

THAT, is a VERY large portion of the Univision audience...those are the economic factors I am referring to.

There is no documentation, proof or even significant suspicion that this would be the case. If you are going to fabricate stuff, go on one of the gladiator newsgroups or fora on the web. Otherwise, tell me where you got such preposterous data that would show that listeners to one single company's stations would be any different on this subject than those of the rest of the broadcasters in the market.

The IE is a huge growth area for any company that is in broadcasting to hispanics...I hope there are others reading this that are aware that Univision is clearly out of the game there.

Any LA station that has a radio signal that covers the IE is by definition "in the game there." But none of those stations (and Univision only has one that qualifies fully) go out of their way to serve a market they are neither licensed to nor operate in.

The IE radio market is about 6% of the size of the LA radio market in revenues, and about 1/10th of the population; it is a proportionally very small market next to a huge one. Any station in LA is going to do nothing to appeal to the IE that detracts from appealing to the LA metro. CBS, Clear, Univision, SBS, Mt. Wilson, etc., have no interest in wasting time serving a market that represents nearly no revenue potential.

As I said before, Entravision chose to delist KLYY, the IE's biggest signal, from the IE ratings and have the station considered by Arbitron to be an LA signal. As such, and with just a low-1's share level, they bill more as an LA station than the top biller in the IE does. In other words, the market and the money are both in LA.

For an LA station... any LA station... to divert resources from the home maket towards a market infinitely smaller is an absurd, nearly insane idea. The IE is not growing economically, it is vastly smaller, and has little revenue directed towards it, directly or indirectly. There is no gain for an LA radio station to focus on the IE, particularly in the current economic conditions in the IE.

In all honesty, how would you come up with something so sinister as paying for ad buys, there was no reference to that whatsoever...

It was the only way I could interpret your statement, as convoluted as it was. You've muddled it more in the attempt to clarify, anyway with your absurd contention that the listeners to any group's stations are any more or less likely to be "paid in cash" than any other.

Should this thread remain., I wish you would explain where the revenue gain is for LA stations that decide to become IE stations. Nobody in the industry can find it, which is why the proposal to combine the ratings for the IE and LA MSA's failed totally.
 
David, I imagine that I am no different than anyone else in the room here, I can't make it past your first paragraph, you drone on with out making a point. You answered my question, Univision has taken their eye off the IE and do not serve the marketplace. THAT is good to know, especially coming from a high up such as you.
 
purdyum said:
David, I imagine that I am no different than anyone else in the room here, I can't make it past your first paragraph, you drone on with out making a point. You answered my question, Univision has taken their eye off the IE and do not serve the marketplace. THAT is good to know, especially coming from a high up such as you.

I don´t think any LA station has ever had its eye on the IE market, so there is no eye to take off it by anybody. I cided the example of entravision deciding to make KLYY-Riverside an LA station for Arbitron, because the IE is not a big revenue market.

Let me make it simple for you:

Only 1 LA AM adequately covers the IE MSA. Only about 13 or 14 LA FMs cover the IE adequately. That means that about 60 commercial stations in the LA metro haved zero interest in the IE, because they don't cover. That includes stations like KYSR and KROQ and KLAX and such.

The IE has only about 6% of the revenue of the LA market. It has only about 12% of the population. No LA station is going to dedicate money and time to the IE when the same money can pay off many, many times more when spent in the LA metro. Taking our collective eyes off LA is much more dangerous.

The IE has an economic crisis of major proportios, and will likely suffer revenue decreases in radio.

Nobody... Univision, SBS, CBS, Clear, etc. is going to waste time and money making an LA station more attractive in the IE. There is no gain.
 
DavidEduardo said:
purdyum said:
David, I imagine that I am no different than anyone else in the room here, I can't make it past your first paragraph, you drone on with out making a point. You answered my question, Univision has taken their eye off the IE and do not serve the marketplace. THAT is good to know, especially coming from a high up such as you.

I don´t think any LA station has ever had its eye on the IE market, so there is no eye to take off it by anybody. I cided the example of entravision deciding to make KLYY-Riverside an LA station for Arbitron, because the IE is not a big revenue market.

Let me make it simple for you:

Only 1 LA AM adequately covers the IE MSA. Only about 13 or 14 LA FMs cover the IE adequately. That means that about 60 commercial stations in the LA metro haved zero interest in the IE, because they don't cover. That includes stations like KYSR and KROQ and KLAX and such.

The IE has only about 6% of the revenue of the LA market. It has only about 12% of the population. No LA station is going to dedicate money and time to the IE when the same money can pay off many, many times more when spent in the LA metro. Taking our collective eyes off LA is much more dangerous.

The IE has an economic crisis of major proportios, and will likely suffer revenue decreases in radio.

Nobody... Univision, SBS, CBS, Clear, etc. is going to waste time and money making an LA station more attractive in the IE. There is no gain.


David:

While I agree with most of what you say, KGGI and KFRG battle for the top biller in the I.E. and are both in the $15 million range. Unless, KLYY has suddenly exploded, I highly doubt is billing much more than $7 million when they are not even in the ballgame in L.A. in most key demos.

It depends on whether you want to be the big fish in the small pond or vice versa. I don't believe KLYY has the coverage or ratings to ever be a major player ($15 mil or more/year) in the L.A. market.
 
Radioresearcher said:
While I agree with most of what you say, KGGI and KFRG battle for the top biller in the I.E. and are both in the $15 million range. Unless, KLYY has suddenly exploded, I highly doubt is billing much more than $7 million when they are not even in the ballgame in L.A. in most key demos.

It depends on whether you want to be the big fish in the small pond or vice versa. I don't believe KLYY has the coverage or ratings to ever be a major player ($15 mil or more/year) in the L.A. market.

Per the "usual sources" the last full year billing ('06) for KFRG was just over $13 M and KGGI was just over $11. KOLA was about 50% behind the average of the two leaders, and, adding KCAL, you have 60% of the total market billing on four signals. Indications are that '07 may be between 6% and 8% off from '06.

KLYY bills in the $12 million range (just under for '06) and is holding. They get on buys because the field is more limited and they have an exclusive format, two useful elements that favor them. But you are right, they are limited to abut $15 to $16 million as a niche player in the LA Hispanic market.

With the same format focused as a Riverside / San Bernardino station, they would be lucky to break $5... if that. There are only about $8 million Spanish language dollars in the market, and they go to fairly low rate operators, Lazer, Luna and now Liberman. The deep economic woes of the IE will likely make '08 a negative growth year, perhaps setting market billing back to around $50 million.
 
I can't be the only one to notice that current radio management (consiting of the likes of David) has one feet firmly planted in the past with their focus on the present. Which is why radio can't seem to gain any ground in advertising or ratings technology.

Just a quick note, that no doubt will get back a 40 paragraph document from David. But, according to the census bureau, by 2025, Riverside will represent 13% of the SCAG pop and San Bernadino will represent 12%. That combined with negative growth in the Los Angeles area...just an outsiders opinion...wouldn't it make MORE sense to focus now on emerging markets instead of abandoning them... And please stop using revenue numbers in this conversation, everyone knows revenue trails ratings...with market growth, revenue growth will increase.
 
purdyum said:
I can't be the only one to notice that current radio management (consiting of the likes of David) has one feet firmly planted in the past with their focus on the present. Which is why radio can't seem to gain any ground in advertising or ratings technology.

Just a quick note, that no doubt will get back a 40 paragraph document from David. But, according to the census bureau, by 2025, Riverside will represent 13% of the SCAG pop and San Bernadino will represent 12%. That combined with negative growth in the Los Angeles area...just an outsiders opinion...wouldn't it make MORE sense to focus now on emerging markets instead of abandoning them... And please stop using revenue numbers in this conversation, everyone knows revenue trails ratings...with market growth, revenue growth will increase.
I've been thuroughly enjoying the civilized discussion between you and David, but I can't help but jump in, if only to add more opinions to the discussion.

Radio is a business which is why revenue has to be considered. Like any business, the radio industry follows the money. When economic and population trends grow to the point that stronger financial gains are on the horizon for a broadcaster to move their focus from L.A. to the IE, it will happen. Until then, operators will continue to follow the money which...for the forseeable future will remain in L.A.

By 2025 it may make sense for someone to move back to the IE.
 
Hunter said:
I've been thuroughly enjoying the civilized discussion between you and David, but I can't help but jump in, if only to add more opinions to the discussion.

This type of discussion is always interesting. They make you tink, reevaluate your beliefs and consider other ideas. In fact, there is a mangagement prinicipal that says thata the person who gives up while defending their position did not really believe to begin with.!

Radio is a business which is why revenue has to be considered. Like any business, the radio industry follows the money. When economic and population trends grow to the point that stronger financial gains are on the horizon for a broadcaster to move their focus from L.A. to the IE, it will happen. Until then, operators will continue to follow the money which...for the forseeable future will remain in L.A.

That's always been the point. In fact, when Arbitron had a "vote" on combining the two markets, many LA stations that have lower shares in the IE, although they covered the area, worried that the combining would lower the share level for the new market from what staitons had obtained in the LA book, making each look "worse." Further, with a combinantion of markets, you would add 30 or so more stations to the list, and the cume shares, basis for reach calculations, would decline as there would be further fragmentation.

By 2025 it may make sense for someone to move back to the IE.

Technically, only 97.5 could "move" back because it is already there. They are listed by Arbitron as an LA station only because the station chose to be so listed for revenue reasons. In fact, they have the best signal in the IE, and are one of only 4 B's in the market... alll the remaining FMs are A's and none fully cover the market with a "usable" signal (about 64 dbu is the cut off for getting "into the diaries" for any station... over 80% of diary mentions on average are in the 70 dbu signal).

Interestingly, the IE has a much lower use of AM than the LA MSA. In fall, it was 13.5% vs about 19% in LA. Nearly half of the IE AM listening is to one station, KFI... the only LA station that adequately puts a usable signal over most of the market.
 
DavidEduardo said:
By 2025 it may make sense for someone to move back to the IE.

Technically, only 97.5 could "move" back because it is already there.
My comment was based on the assumption that one or some of the stations that have changed COL over the years and moved from the IE to LA county, might by some slight chance, think it it might make sense to move back to the IE someday. That is, after if a significant amount of growth were to happen many years from now. But who knows if FM or AM will be around by then?
 
purdyum said:
I can't be the only one to notice that current radio management (consiting of the likes of David) has one feet firmly planted in the past with their focus on the present. Which is why radio can't seem to gain any ground in advertising or ratings technology.

Radio's issue with advertising has more to do with the fragmentation of all media. That is a whole separate subject, but the buzzwords today at the more avant garde ad agencies is interactivity. None of the old media is interactive, as the technology did not exist when each was created. Radio has to be an agregator of content to new distribution channels, and every major radio group is following this option. Yet with things like the huge setback in Sprint's WiMax rollout after splitting with Clearwire, the future of non-traditional terrestrial distribution is anything but clear.

As to ratings, every competitive station and group in the top 50 markets (PPM so far can not be cost effective in smaller markets) wants electronic measurement. But we want accurate measurement, and we have not seen that from the PPM yet. Neither stations nor advertisers (it was the advertiser-supported MRC that convinced Arbitron to pull back on the PPM roll-out) want bad measurement. When Arbitron fixes the PPM, everyone who lives and sells by ratings will be on board, just as today.

But, according to the census bureau, by 2025, Riverside will represent 13% of the SCAG pop and San Bernadino will represent 12%. That combined with negative growth in the Los Angeles area...just an outsiders opinion...wouldn't it make MORE sense to focus now on emerging markets instead of abandoning them... And please stop using revenue numbers in this conversation, everyone knows revenue trails ratings...with market growth, revenue growth will increase.

Remember, Census projections are simply projections of past history. If the economy of a market changes, or there are significant other issues, the projection is subject to vast changes. The Census, using projections and some empirical data, underprojected the Dallas metro in 1999 by more than 10%... that's hundreds of thousands of people.

The LA market is actually growing, slowly. The Fall, 1998, 12+ figure is 10,162,000 persons. In Fall of '03, it was 10,609,000 and now it is 10,902,000 for a 9-year growth (not Census data, but Claritas) of nearly 800,000 persons. That's equal to about 45% of the 1.755 million 12+ in the IE!

Also, I believe the figures you quote are apparently County figures. The IE market is only a small geographic part of the two counties. As mentioned before, approximately 800,000 persons live in the "no man's land" of Fontana / Rialto / Ontario and surrounding areas that is not part of the LA or IE MSA. Then, Victorville / Apple Valley is a separate MSA, and so is the Coachella Valley / Palm Springs market. So about 1.5 million don't even live in the rated IE MSA.

The population growth rate of the IE was 3.7% between 2001 and 2006. It is projected to be below 2% through 2012 (again, Claritas data, not Census... Claritas forcast the Dallas population almost exactly for 2000 before the Census came out).

The real point still remains that most LA stations don't have a big enough signal in the IE to compete; of our 5, only 1 can be considered fully competitive there. So trying to get listeners is like shooting with an unloaded gun.

As Hunter very accurately and astutely stated, it's about the money. There is no gain for LA stations to divert focus to a very small low revenue market. The "extra" numbers are a nice bonus to advertisers, who certainly don't pay for them ("this is an LA buy... we don't look outside the market").

As to revenue growth, the market is very slow growth and is presently in a negative growth phase. Small markets next to large ones often show this kind of behaviour.
 
Hunter said:
My comment was based on the assumption that one or some of the stations that have changed COL over the years and moved from the IE to LA county, might by some slight chance, think it it might make sense to move back to the IE someday. That is, after if a significant amount of growth were to happen many years from now. But who knows if FM or AM will be around by then?

I'm not familiar with any recent (last 40 to 50 years) change of any IE station to LA County, AM or FM. In any case, any change made some time ago would have allowed changes in surrounding areas which would likely block a station moving "back" at this time. Since a 1 share 25-54 in LA is worth about $12 million, it's pretty unlikely that any major station now in LA would move back unless the population of the IE was suddenly to be as great as that of the LA MSA.
 
David....Why is that large swath of population around Ontario outside of both the LA and IE Arbitron metros?

It's interesting also to note that embedded in the San Francisco radio market, you'll find both Santa Rosa and San Jose. Both of those markets have little revenue potential. I guess the San Francisco radio stations see more national dollars being market number four.

In the case of LA, even if the IE and Ventura county are added to the LA Metro, LA would still rank number two.
 
Michael Rivers Kramer said:
David....Why is that large swath of population around Ontario outside of both the LA and IE Arbitron metros?

I was oblivious to this little detail until Radioresearcher, one of the posters here, pointed it out. He may know the reason, but my suspicion is that the IE stations don't want it as the listening to LA stations is around 80% of the shares, and LA does not want it as it would dilute shares with the ortion that goes to the IE staitons.

It's interesting also to note that embedded in the San Francisco radio market, you'll find both Santa Rosa and San Jose. Both of those markets have little revenue potential. I guess the San Francisco radio stations see more national dollars being market number four.

In part, the SJ and SR markets are published embeddeds because there are stations to pay for the report. Orange County used to be an embedded market, till nobody wanted to pay for it any more.

In the case of LA, even if the IE and Ventura county are added to the LA Metro, LA would still rank number two.

That's a good point. The total population increase would not significantly increase the cost per point, so there is little to be gained. I believe subscribers in all three markets would have to vote on such a change, and that would make it even less likely that such a change would happen... the IE and Ventura County stations would go from big players locally to near-no shows in such a big market area.
 
Getting back to the original poster's topic, I am not suprised myself by the numbers. There really isn't any room for another rock outlet and as for the Urban situation, it's clear that listeners are clearly stating they are sick of hearing Rhythmic Oldies(with the exception of KHHT). Even in a PPM world, I don't expect Univision to lose it's rankings and may gain actually, as the market will still be over 45% Hispanic.

But a good point is well taken, what does one do with 93.9 and 100.3? I'd suggest that Univision and Liberman acquire both to move their top formats to(Recurdo and Que Buena) but that would put the 103.9/98.3 and 105.5/94.3 combos in limbo. Thoughts?
 
Joshua Messex said:
Getting back to the original poster's topic, I am not suprised myself by the numbers. There really isn't any room for another rock outlet and as for the Urban situation, it's clear that listeners are clearly stating they are sick of hearing Rhythmic Oldies(with the exception of KHHT). Even in a PPM world, I don't expect Univision to lose it's rankings and may gain actually, as the market will still be over 45% Hispanic.

But a good point is well taken, what does one do with 93.9 and 100.3? I'd suggest that Univision and Liberman acquire both to move their top formats to(Recurdo and Que Buena) but that would put the 103.9/98.3 and 105.5/94.3 combos in limbo. Thoughts?

Josh:

IMHO, you are wrong about Rock. KCXX and KCAL both have AQH listening of over 40% Hispanic as does KROQ. PPM is going to help the rock shares and English speaking Hispanics listen to rock radio. That is the misconception (plus the diary system) that hurt the format. Tom Taylor mentioned that KROQ and KIIS stand to gain with PPM - and I agree.

105.5 and the two 94.3's are doing pretty darn good for three Class A's - as David will atest to. I don't know how whether it would pay for Liberman to spend the additional dollars to buy 100.3 or 93.9. How much larger of a share could they get - and what are those three A's worth as sticks?

I wonder how "La Ranchera" would do on an FM. It has decent 25-54 numbers on an AM...

And David, do you have any revenue figures for the Spanish stations for 2007? I have to think KSSE is off and did any of the Univision stations hit $40 million?
 
david, you mention CPP changes. What exactly do you believe current CPPs are in LA and the IE? Use A18-49 and A25-54. And, since CPP's are inventory based, not poulation based, what do you think would happen if inventory was harder to buy in the IE and easier to buy in LA? Similar to how CPP's in Sf and ATL are higher than LA, even though LA has far greater pop. Your thoughts?
 
purdyum said:
david, you mention CPP changes. What exactly do you believe current CPPs are in LA and the IE? Use A18-49 and A25-54. And, since CPP's are inventory based, not poulation based, what do you think would happen if inventory was harder to buy in the IE and easier to buy in LA? Similar to how CPP's in Sf and ATL are higher than LA, even though LA has far greater pop. Your thoughts?

I don't know how to answer this as the pretext that "CPPs in SF and Atlanta are higher than LA..."

LA bills, still, around $1 billion. SF bills about $500 million, and Atlanta about $400 million. If you look at media monitors, the commercial loads are comparable in all three. There is no way the CPP in either SF or Atlanta could be "greater" than those in LA.

CPPs are very dynamic, and in this you are correct. January CPPs may be lower than May CPPs. Dayparts are also a factor.

However, CPPs are not inventory based. The ability of a station to meet the CPP goals of an agency are inventory based, but the CPP for agency buys is set by the agency or its buying service. The way it works is that the agency specifies the demo target and the CPP goal. Stations will submit based on the specs... sometimes using bonus spots and merchandising to bring up the CPP or enhance the buy... and the agency will decide which stations get in on the buy. In LA, the stations in the top 15 to 20 in 12+ are likely to be well enough sold so that they don't have the kind of inventory that forces them to do the airline thing and sell some cheap seats.

I've seen 25-54 buys on one station I know that were in the $800 to $1200 range within the last 90 days. In the IE, the CPP in broad demos like 25-54 or 18-49 is on the order of $100 to $125 for broad daypart buys.

I think you will find that in the top 10 to 12 markets, CPPs are higher on a CPM standard than in smaller markets, where there is less agency business. Since the IE is out of the top 25, on a CPM basis it will price below the LA average. By the way, interesting articles in several SoCal papers in the last few days in relation to the water usage conference at the Morongo Hotel today... many construction projects, including the Scetchers warehouse proposal, in western Riverside County have been cancelled as they can not get water usage guarantees. In other words, the area is maxed out in population vs. the ability to sustain that population.
 
David, what in the world are you talking about, your $800-$1200 vs. $100-$125 is rate based, not CPP based. and billing has very little affect on CPP, market conditions affect CPP. If you don't know, just say "I don't know". SF and ATL have higher CPP's than LA for numerous reasons, none of which have anything to do with total market billing. Nor does it matter what corporate infrastructure issues you bring up, people live and work in the IE and more do so every year, as opposed to LA, where there are people leaving the market... simple economics, uptrending vs. downtrending.

Please make your reply brief so I can read it all, also, please try to stay on topic.
 
purdyum said:
SF and ATL have higher CPP's than LA for numerous reasons, none of which have anything to do with total market billing.
This really surprises me and perhaps this is true now. I haven't been exposed to multi market radio buys for the last several years, but when I used to be very familar with CPPs in both SF and Atlanta, LA was higher. Are you sure that you aren't talking about an individual station submission on a piece of business? It is expected commonplace for dominant stations like KGO in SF or WVEE in Atl to be WAY over the CPP and still get on the buy. It is up to the good buyer to work their magic and get other stations low enough to bring the whole buy in at the allocated CPP.
 
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