Thoughts on the next few months of radio?

[Tibbs4]

With all the threads about Crumulus laying off staff, I guess it's just a matter of time
before it hits close to home, here. Granted, the slow down in advertising, etc., may
warrant some of this, BUT --- why do these big companies just chop and cut to the bare bone
knowing that they are just lessening their chance to be successful? Is there one major
company that is not following the lead of all of the others and trimming? Why can't
they put more sales people out on the streets and drum up more revenue and improve
their product to win ratings, compete and enhance rates and fill avails up? When times
get tough the tough get going. In radio, it seems like they just don't see the long term
damage this is doing. Their idea of going is flushing their very chance to stay afloat.

With all the stocks down, there is obviously less money to throw at failing properties,
which are increasing. The gravy is gone and the meat is dry. And, unless some bail out
is around the hidden corner (just what we need the government now owning most of
the radio stations in this country) what is the future?

Lastly, with CON-solidation, etc., what percentage of staff that were working in say
2000 are left by comparison? Look at the recent changes in this market and you will
see there are so few live and local jobs even left. The revenue is being sucked out of
the city and state and going into the pockets of the CEO's out of state. How much
longer can this last???

Sorry to be so negative, here, folks...but quite seriously, when is anyone going to stand up
and embrace the possibilities of this industry and forge a new future? It's not only scary,
but totally unbelieveable that this is the best we can do with radio in 2008! What are your
thoughts for the next few months or year?

End of rant...thoughts?

 

[Nock]

BUT --- why do these big companies just chop and cut to the bare bone
knowing that they are just lessening their chance to be successful?

Because they expect you to do more with no more money. I am experiencing it first hand in my world. You are supposed to be glad you still have a job. I believe the worst has yet to come.

Nock

 

[Tibbs4]

Nock --- seriously, and you're a friend on mine --- I think about what you deal with everyday.
It is just crazy. How can anyone win?

 

[deltas69]

scott may have outflanked everyone..the day may come when all the big boys are bankrupt and dark...and there sits scott..just idleing along ..whodathunkit ?? ;D

 

[olebud]

Tibbs,

It scares me. There are fewer people, I guessing, at nearly every station in town, at least those that are part of a corporation and public. Stockholders demand a return for their investment and don't care HOW you do it, just do it by whatever means (read voice-tracking). Those stockholders paid good money for each stock, now many of those papers are worth less than a dollar.... some for 40 cents and less.

Stations have cutback to the point that I have seen smaller market stations with larger staffs than stations in Nashville. Now you have one person doing promotions for a number of stations, and they are some of the underpaid in the business for what they're called on to do.
Many companies are using the 'wheel and spoke' idea. Have a number of stations 'spokes' feed material to a single station "wheel' that handles a single project for all the spokes.

Lastly, with CON-solidation, etc., what percentage of staff that were working in say
2000 are left by comparison?

At WSM, for example, in 2000, we had, I'm guessing, 10 - 12 news people, full time with I'm not sure how many part time and interns. Jerry Dahmen, Jim Ellis and I were the last full-time news folks there in 2002 when they cleaned house. I have no big problem with Gaylord. They are/were a hotel company and they were cutting down over head (news) to save for the share holders. As I've said before, it was a business decision and I understood that. Didn't make it any easier to take. We were THE news station in Nashville for years, and listeners are the ones who lost.
Metro Network, also did news for WSM, but they have now have cut their staff and may not be around this time next year. The Tennessee Network received a call from WSM recently asking if they could do the morning drive news for them.
Bottom line, there are NO news people there now. I can't speak how to many employees they now have on staff, but from what's been said, it's also much smaller.
Don't know that more sales people would help. The common complaint at CC was sales commissions were constantly being changed so sales people were making less. Many big companies have cut their advertising in half, others are late paying their bills. And others have pared down their ad budgets also. It's a tough world out there for all ---broadcasting included.
Probably others can tell similar stories.

As I said at the beginning, it scares me the way our business is going.
I was having so much fun during my early years, I never asked about the hours or how many days or vacations when moving up the ladder. That doesn't happen much, if at all anymore, and I don't see it getting any better.
Tibbs....aren't you glad you asked?

I hope there are others who don't share this bleak outlook. I'd love to be wrong.
Buddy Sadler ---Radio Lover

Buddy (and no...I'm not just old and grouchy....don't care what my wife says.)

 

[Tibbs4]

scott may have outflanked everyone..the day may come when all the big boys are bankrupt and dark...and there sits scott..just idleing along ..whodathunkit ?? ;D

Deltas --- Scott probably won't own 'em all, just mainly due to regulations. Nor would he want them or take them, I would guess just because you can't have 30+ disco stations.

Dave Ramsey will own the rest...free and clear. Again, why waste the energy.

Funny those two whacky guys may very well turn out to have been right after all. How? Those well-rehearsed corporate tools in suits laughed at them.

Scott, on the WATO demise post of E. TN board... you said it best ---- keep it simple and no you don't need another headache from that far away.
I am finding that to be true as we speak. You can try to right a lot of ships and sink 'em all or just steer one to try to find calmer waters.

I appreciate Buddy's comments. We need you reading these posts online somewhere, like a newscast. Airwaves just aren't right in
Metro proper without you.

I guess I am the old, grumpy one as of late. Sorry, that's not like me ... let me make it up to everybody (oh, great!)

Bring on the Christmas Music. That'll cheer me up. Rumour has it WMRO
will be first --- after Friday's Gallatin game. Ah, to smile again. Bring it on SB. And Egg Nog flavored AM.

Look at the bright side...you can buy 3 shares of XM, er, Sirius stock for the price of a Coke.

Thanks for keeping your comments coming on this subject.

 

[Bat Fastard]

As a Public Service...(remember Public Service?), I offer the most intelligent synopsis of this situation I've read yet. It came from the Iowa board and was posted by "Radio Vet 113".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It is hard to sit here and read this speculation that is unfounded. It is simple economics. The company was built when the window opened for multi-station, multi-market ownership. The problem was those on the sidelines that made up most of the smaller owners allowed large groups to bid for their stations at 12, 13, or 14 times the cash flow, when in reality, after it all shakes down, the value of these very stations is somewhere in the 7 or 8 times cash flow range. They delayed the inevitable because the market grew and increases of 5%, 6%, and more of ad revenue sustained that radio was a 'growth medium.' It is not a straight growth medium--it is a medium that grows some, has flat years and sometimes has a down year. Wall Street HATES that. They don't care about the ability of a strongly run radio operation to deliver a 40 margin (or better) on ad revenue.

What you don't understand here is that this isn't about 'making payroll.' This is about keeping the platform viable while leveraged debt is called in by lenders. Just as there was 'over value' in the housing market, leaving families (borrowers) 'underwater,' the same has happened in radio.

The root problem is radio is NOT A commodity for Wall Street. Radio is entertainment and news and a friend to each community.

The solution--while still leveraged like they are, big groups have to cut expenses, even when they are appeared to have alreadt been cut to the bone--why? Because the revenue market isn't growing and the lenders are at the door wondering where this 'growth medium' is going. So the QC cluster could have the best profit margin in Cumulus, or the one in Rockford could, but the overall platform collapses without some stop gap. Is it a good stop gap? NO! Does it hurt radio? HELL YES! Is there an alternative to this plan? Unfortunately, no.

Put it in perspective--the newspaper business with all their 'brick and mortar' costs, printing presses, large staffs and fixed costs, is in much WORSE shape than radio. Because newspaper is in decline--readership is falling, ad costs rising and there is no long-term answer. Television is fragmented by cable, satellite, DVR, DVD, computer, video games.

When the dust clears, radio will still be there. The most talented will survive and those talented that are displaced by this situation, will live to fight another day. If you want to worry about something, worry about the Democrat push to censor radio by bringing back the 'fairness doctrine.' It will kill AM Radio...regardless of your political view, the fairness doctrine is the most horrible thing looming on the horizon. The reason I say regardless of your political view, is that without the fairness doctrine, right now, you can vote against programming by tuning the dial elsewhere. This is not something we need back in play again.

I know some of these people who are out at Cumulus...they will be back in this business if they want to be. My thoughts and hopes go to them because it sucks to be unemployed in this (or any other business), but good talent and good people win out eventually.

 

[scottwmro]

scott may have outflanked everyone..the day may come when all the big boys are bankrupt and dark...and there sits scott..just idleing along ..whodathunkit ?? ;D

Deltas --- Scott probably won't own 'em all, just mainly due to regulations. Nor would he want them or take them, I would guess just because you can't have 30+ disco stations.

Dave Ramsey will own the rest...free and clear. Again, why waste the energy.

Funny those two whacky guys may very well turn out to have been right after all. How? Those well-rehearsed corporate tools in suits laughed at them.

Scott, on the WATO demise post of E. TN board... you said it best ---- keep it simple and no you don't need another headache from that far away.
I am finding that to be true as we speak. You can try to right a lot of ships and sink 'em all or just steer one to try to find calmer waters.

I appreciate Buddy's comments. We need you reading these posts online somewhere, like a newscast. Airwaves just aren't right in
Metro proper without you.

I guess I am the old, grumpy one as of late. Sorry, that's not like me ... let me make it up to everybody (oh, great!)

Bring on the Christmas Music. That'll cheer me up. Rumour has it WMRO
will be first --- after Friday's Gallatin game. Ah, to smile again. Bring it on SB. And Egg Nog flavored AM.

Look at the bright side...you can buy 3 shares of XM, er, Sirius stock for the price of a Coke.

Thanks for keeping your comments coming on this subject.

Tibbs, Buddy & Delta,

I'm just happy with one station, WMRO, The Big Magic 1560! It's really hard to say what is going to happen in "09". Just depends on who is elected and what the new president and congress has in mind to get the media and other industries out of the mess they are in.

With my health problems, I don't need another radio station. I don't mind helping out the other small, non corporate owned stations with tech problems every now and then, but at age 45, and I have already have had 1 mild heart attack, WMRO is all I need. I've made the operation simple here, and yes I guess I'll be here idleing on when the big boys fall apart.

I had an offer to buy one other small AM station in Alabama, and I turned it down. Too far away, and I told the owner I wanted no part of it. I couldn't understand why he called me anyway? Even if it was a small station close by, I don't want it and no more headaches! No buying radio stations for Scott!

Come by some time fellas and have a cup of coffee and we'll make predictions about Radio "2009"! I'm just going to sit back, enjoy life, and let the big boys sweat it out. I want nothing they have!

Scott

 

[radiorob2.0]

When the dust clears, radio will still be there. The most talented will survive and those talented that are displaced by this situation, will live to fight another day. If you want to worry about something, worry about the Democrat push to censor radio by bringing back the 'fairness doctrine.' It will kill AM Radio...regardless of your political view, the fairness doctrine is the most horrible thing looming on the horizon. The reason I say regardless of your political view, is that without the fairness doctrine, right now, you can vote against programming by tuning the dial elsewhere. This is not something we need back in play again.

You make good points Bat but I do differ with your perspective of the Fairness Doctrine and censorship. Opposite viewpoints are censored these days since talk show host like Limbaugh, Hannity and others cut off anyone that isn't providing verbal fellatio in the form of "You so smart and please share more of your wisdom". There are argument for and against but the lobbying effort will keep the Fairness Doctrine from ever returning.

Radio had better hold on tight because the next 12 to 24 months are going to be scary. But please take a moment to pray for the corporate radio vice presidents as it will be harder for them to achieve their end of year bonus for thinking out of the box.

 

[deltas69]

the day may come when all the big boys are bankrupt and dark my point, offered somewhat tongue in cheek, was, not that scott would own more stations..he would be the only one left...with no payroll to meet, and virtually no expenses..percentage wise..he shows a larger profit than any station in Nashville from his Sunday shows alone..granted yearly his net profit is way smaller $$$ wise than CC, etc..but i'd bet his profit is over 75% compared to his yearly outlay..and he doesn't have to answer to any board of directors or stockholders..or anyone else..(except the odd rant at some of use occasionally..lol) offered in the spirit of AM togetherness..

 

[Nock]

...with no payroll to meet, and virtually no expenses..percentage wise..he shows a larger profit than any station in Nashville

And no corporate overhead, and all the other hidden expenses that hit a p&l to cover the boys in suits. These stations probably make money until you get to the corp line on the p&l.

Nock

 

[beatlenut]

The most talented will survive and those talented that are displaced by this situation, will live to fight another day.

I know some of these people who are out at Cumulus...they will be back in this business if they want to be.

BF, you had some great points, and know what it's about. But when you say the talented will survive, I disagree. (*note: talent is different things to different people; I don't want to come off as pretentious.) I had the highest ratings WRQQ ever had, and I was let go, for budget cuts, long before the crisis we're in now. Did somebody say, hmmm, we've got something here, let's look elsewhere to cut. No, they didn't give a hoot about ratings. They said, let's get rid of the guy earning the most money. That's got to win Cumulus some kind of Stupidity Award. "We don't want to win, we just want to make money." News flash: if you have a winning team, the money will follow.

The other line was "they will be back in this business if they want to be." Sure, but with a huge pay cut. If I get back into radio, I won't be able to command the same paycheck as before.

Bitter? Of course, because I love radio with a passion. But when your passion is no longer putting food on the table, it's time to develop a new passion, and hope you get comfortable before another ax befalls you.

 

[Journeyman]

There is some good news about all the cuts at Cumulus. No corporate officer was harmed and no executive salaries or bonus pay was jeopardized by the cuts.

I'm sure we can all be glad about that.

 

[ShadowB]

Good post beatlenut! I am still bitter that I got cut almost two years ago. Not as much at the group that did it but the way radio has changed over the years. It's not about how good the talent is but how cheep the staff will work. I was listening to a station the other day and could not tell you how many times the jock said... " ( Station calls) that was ( artist) This is ( artist) on ( station calls) " When the talent did do a station liner they would go right into a recorded promo that said the same thing the jox just said! No one is teaching the art of radio now! Who can talk up an intro and say something? Who IS having fun on the air? The ONLY station that plays what I like to listen to with out the above crap is my I-Pod!

 

[Tibbs4]

Sad when those so close to this industry throw their hands up and say "I give." It's now a game of fools.
You know, we all have talked about the demise of radio for a few years on this board. It seems like it's
getting here quicker and quicker by the day. Sad thing is it's an INSIDE JOB.

This latest economic bump, as bad as it is, will recover and turn around in time. These continued radio
cuts push listeners away for good. I can't believe no one sees past next week, anymore.

 

[jharmon]

radio as a viable, credible medium continues to decline, thanks to the wisdom of the corporate suits.
In 2009, radio as an entertainment medium will be surpassed by I-pods, MP3 players, computers streaming.
28 million plus I-Pods, means 28 million plus program directors, who listen to what they want, not what some corporate pd will cram down their throat. These people dont care if the dj acts goofy, time and temp, funny, etc. They dont need them for their entertainment and wont waste a second on any of them. Gen Y is way out ahead of the curve to be saddled with over the air dj's.
Cell phones in 2009 will not only supply text, weather, traffic, music, but streaming of favorite online must products.
Technology killed the radio star. Radio did not keep up. RIP

 

[InsertNameHere]

Radio the next few months: Not good. It's going to be a bad "budget cutting season" leading up to Christmas, probably worse than many of the last few years. CBS has been cutting staff and they just posted a HUGE decline in revenue for 3Q. Look for them to shed even more.

The sooner the big companies start selling off their portfolios, the better. When that starts to happen, I think you'll find the situation improving, slowly but surely.

I saw this today.
A new study by Paragon Media Strategies suggests that the trend is changing among teen listening habits. Paragon reports that 14-24-year-olds mostly say their radio listening has increased over the last year or two, while they said the opposite last year. PARAGON recruited the respondents and conducted the study online.

"Radio stations may be doing a better job at connecting with those people," said LARRY JOHNSON, the study’s author. "The music may also simply be more interesting. There tends to be a cycle."

The study suggests that portable mp3 players are not as dangerous to radio as they once were thought to be. Those surveyed had roughly the same median number of songs on their devices as last year (about 400), and fewer respondents said the mp3 and other devices cut their radio listening time.

 

[radioboy]

Hi Tibbs,

I recently posted on the Georgia board about the latest round of budget cuts taking out some of
my favorite radio folks that were still left on the air. Almost none of them are left in the industry.

I started in radio in 1979 and did pretty well at it, at least in connecting with the listeners. I'm no
radio star by any means, and the pay was low, but I was happy for the most part and got along
well with everyone, including the mom-and pop owners I always worked for.

In 2004 I ended up on the beach when the station I was operations manager/air personality for decided
to LMA the station out for EWTN Catholic radio. There were 3 of us working for this station (an AM)
and we all lost our jobs. And then..there were no jobs in the market to go to.

We travel from Tallahassee, Fla. to Madisonville, Tennessee a couple of times every year as my wife has
family there. This past week we just returned and noticed that K-Country 104 in Albany was jockless,
Kicks 101.5 in Atlanta had lost some former jocks..and then I return home and read about cuts in Macon, including at WDEN.

I've been a hold-out for radio but we bought a Philips Go-Gear and loaded it up with music for traveling. We
miss the personality that individual stations used to have.

US101 in Chattanooga and WTNT in Tallahassee have the exact same voice on their liners and website promos. US101 has a little more life to it, though. CC's WTNT country is getting trounced by Opus Broadcasting's The WOLF 103.1 (also country) in Tallahassee.

My father has not listened to radio in over 10 years except for an occasional tune in to my stream. The 55-plus
crowd here has nothing.

And Tibbs...during one of my station manager jobs I wanted to hire a lady named Jennifer Bell but the owner
had someone else in mind. I'd heard Jennifer on the air and thought she sounded great. She is now Jenny Woo in
Panama City..Mrs. Charlie Wooten! It's a small world after all..

 

[scottwmro]

scott may have outflanked everyone..the day may come when all the big boys are bankrupt and dark...and there sits scott..just idleing along ..whodathunkit ?? ;D

Deltas --- Scott probably won't own 'em all, just mainly due to regulations. Nor would he want them or take them, I would guess just because you can't have 30+ disco stations.

Dave Ramsey will own the rest...free and clear. Again, why waste the energy.

Funny those two whacky guys may very well turn out to have been right after all. How? Those well-rehearsed corporate tools in suits laughed at them.

Scott, on the WATO demise post of E. TN board... you said it best ---- keep it simple and no you don't need another headache from that far away.
I am finding that to be true as we speak. You can try to right a lot of ships and sink 'em all or just steer one to try to find calmer waters.

I appreciate Buddy's comments. We need you reading these posts online somewhere, like a newscast. Airwaves just aren't right in
Metro proper without you.

I guess I am the old, grumpy one as of late. Sorry, that's not like me ... let me make it up to everybody (oh, great!)

Bring on the Christmas Music. That'll cheer me up. Rumour has it WMRO
will be first --- after Friday's Gallatin game. Ah, to smile again. Bring it on SB. And Egg Nog flavored AM.

Look at the bright side...you can buy 3 shares of XM, er, Sirius stock for the price of a Coke.

Thanks for keeping your comments coming on this subject.

Tibbs & Delta, (and Chris Romer)

If I had one of those station (i.e. 92Q) I would change the format from Adult Urban to 70's/early 80's DISCO! Smile Chris Romer , you think I'm crazy, but you would hear "Born To Be Alive" again, just like the good ole days in the summer of 1979 on Majik 13!

Ole Bill Berlin would probably come back from Heaven and beat me with a Disco Duck (HA!)

Those good ole Disco songs are 30 years old or approching 30 years old. They are Classic Oldies to me.

Just all wishful thinking. If I was to hit the Lottery, I'd call Lew Dickey with Cumulus and offer him a offer for
one of thoes Class A's with a price he could turn down. Commercial Free 70's/early 80's Disco, just a dream. :'(
I'd even have Ole Bill Buntin & Wayne Akins doing thier shows from the dance floor!

 

[Tibbs4]

Scott --- it's cheaper to watch the "Born to Be Alive" videos on you tube. I don't gamble, never played the lottery.
If I did, and I won, I know one thing, I would NOT spend the $$$ on --- a radio station. Nothing moral against gambling.
My first radio gig was basically working for nothing because of a sure fire bet. Six months. A well known man named
Steve (no longer in this market) paid my mistake upfront and allowed me to pay him back over ten months. Nearly
starved to death. Wish I was that thin, now. Don't wanna have to bail you out Scott from get rich schemes. AND
WE ALL now KNOW KNOW BUYING RADIO STATIONS ARE GET RICH QUICK SCHEMES or GET something else schemes
if you're not the CEO.

Welcome to Hollywood...

Where is Romer? Loved Patrick Hernandez (you know what I mean.) The song rocked, especially the LP version.