Re: Trends are important. - Yeah, I got that...
> > these 12+ "trend" numbers don't mean crap right now.
> >
> > all the "told you so", "look who's fallen to a new low",
> and
> > "congrats" are wasted on...WHAT?
> >
> > TRENDS?
>
> Stations subscribed to the Aribtrends (as opposed to those
> who just see 12+) get a large number of tables.
>
> Demos: 12+, 18+, 18+ men, 18+ women, 18-34, 25-54, 35+ and
> 35-64.
> Dayparts, 6-10, 10-3, 3-7, 7-Mid and weekends.
>
> The sample size of a trend is the same as a book (which is
> simply a specific set of three months, while a trend is a
> rolling set of three months).
>
> Trends are an indication of what direction a station is
> going, and have very close to the same overall reliability
> of a book (less a small difference due to no cross-book
> weighting)
>
i know how the system works and that trends are important (eventually) and a valuable tool, but all these people who don't have access to a lot of the numbers are making predictions/speculations/assumptions/calling changes or whatever without possession of more of the "REAL" information - the trends don't and shouldn't mean poop to them.
you, david, and mr. richards and others constantly remind everybody that the 12+ numbers in any form are just the beauty contest; and that the real numbers the public does not have access to are what really matters. still, people don't "get" that.
the numbers CAN and DO sometimes vary wildly from trend to trend. yet, these people are freaking out about drops and advances in an admittedly extremely flawed system that broadcasting has to deal with until a better, and more accurate system is constructed or magically comes down the pike in the hopefully not too distant future. until the full book comes in with all the trends, maximi$er and all, these trends really don't mean a lot. trends are just a small part of the overall picture. until any revisions or overhaul of the 'system' as it is comes to fruition, it's what it is.
until then, me no worry.
carry on.

<P ID="signature">______________
*curmudgeon in training*</P>