Re: TRENDS, SCHMENDS
> > > these 12+ "trend" numbers don't mean crap right now.
> > >
> > > all the "told you so", "look who's fallen to a new low",
>
> > and
> > > "congrats" are wasted on...WHAT?
> > >
> > > TRENDS?
> > >
> > > you really should get back to work before your trends
> > fall.
> > >
> >
> > A-frickin'-men.
> >
> The trends are flakier than the quarterly "books," as they
> are an unweighted 3 month rolling average. You can learn a
> lot from them, however. Extrapolations are even flakier, and
> thus more dangerous, but a good programming team can glean
> some good information from them. They're all just
> tools...except the 12+ numbers, correctly identified above
> as beauty contest or GM bragging numbers. NO one ever buys
> 12+!
>
At the cluster I work at (in a different market) trends ARE taken seriously. They are not as significant as the quarterly books, but everyone is anxious to look at them as they give you a feel for where the radio market is headed. Yes, some stations do have abnormally high or low individual months, "kisses" do happen or sometimes you feel you got a raw deal, that's the nature of the game, but in time these sort of flukes even themselves out. I totally agree that monthly extraps can be flaky, Arbitron DOES warn about it, radio KNOWS it, but it's still often too tempting to resist.
As far as 12+, nobody really looks at them as they are useless for sales. Despite this, on the programming side there is still a sense of pride and excitement if you win the overall beauty contest, it does give you a good feeling to know you are part of the overall #1 station in the community you live in. Maybe it's just pure ego and has no practical value, but everyone (programming dept in particular) loves to see their station at top of the list the trades report, the numbers that "everyone" sees.
I often see the 12+ before I see the actual demos. I can say I have rarely been suprised. From my personal experience at the station I work at, when we have a great 12+ trend or book, we are almost always up in our demo (often times more than the 12+), if we are down 12+, we are usually down in the demo. I'm talking about significant 12+ rises or declines, it is not uncommon to go up or down a half share 12+ and go in the opposite direction in the demo.
I guess what I'm trying to say is yes the 12+ in themselves are useless (as the moderator said, that's why their given out for free), that goes without saying in the industry, everyone knows that. Yet, I say you often CAN tell what direction individual stations demos are moving in when you see an unusually large rise or decline 12+. The various demos make up the 12+ universe. There are not two seperate surveys going on.
> > > these 12+ "trend" numbers don't mean crap right now.
> > >
> > > all the "told you so", "look who's fallen to a new low",
>
> > and
> > > "congrats" are wasted on...WHAT?
> > >
> > > TRENDS?
> > >
> > > you really should get back to work before your trends
> > fall.
> > >
> >
> > A-frickin'-men.
> >
> The trends are flakier than the quarterly "books," as they
> are an unweighted 3 month rolling average. You can learn a
> lot from them, however. Extrapolations are even flakier, and
> thus more dangerous, but a good programming team can glean
> some good information from them. They're all just
> tools...except the 12+ numbers, correctly identified above
> as beauty contest or GM bragging numbers. NO one ever buys
> 12+!
>
At the cluster I work at (in a different market) trends ARE taken seriously. They are not as significant as the quarterly books, but everyone is anxious to look at them as they give you a feel for where the radio market is headed. Yes, some stations do have abnormally high or low individual months, "kisses" do happen or sometimes you feel you got a raw deal, that's the nature of the game, but in time these sort of flukes even themselves out. I totally agree that monthly extraps can be flaky, Arbitron DOES warn about it, radio KNOWS it, but it's still often too tempting to resist.
As far as 12+, nobody really looks at them as they are useless for sales. Despite this, on the programming side there is still a sense of pride and excitement if you win the overall beauty contest, it does give you a good feeling to know you are part of the overall #1 station in the community you live in. Maybe it's just pure ego and has no practical value, but everyone (programming dept in particular) loves to see their station at top of the list the trades report, the numbers that "everyone" sees.
I often see the 12+ before I see the actual demos. I can say I have rarely been suprised. From my personal experience at the station I work at, when we have a great 12+ trend or book, we are almost always up in our demo (often times more than the 12+), if we are down 12+, we are usually down in the demo. I'm talking about significant 12+ rises or declines, it is not uncommon to go up or down a half share 12+ and go in the opposite direction in the demo.
I guess what I'm trying to say is yes the 12+ in themselves are useless (as the moderator said, that's why their given out for free), that goes without saying in the industry, everyone knows that. Yet, I say you often CAN tell what direction individual stations demos are moving in when you see an unusually large rise or decline 12+. The various demos make up the 12+ universe. There are not two seperate surveys going on.
