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What could WCBS do to flip back to Oldies?

> Keep Dreaming! Dreams are good to have! Keep Dreaming! But
> somewhere, sometime, you really need to wake up! And there
> at 101.1 FM get confortable with Jack-FM! Keep Dreaming,
> Dreaming is good! lol lol!!!!

Do you REALLY think Les Moonves will "get comfortable" with a 60% loss in 25-54 AQH, terrible TSL and a cratered cume...and everything that means in terms of lost revenue and bottom line, with no relief in sight? At these audience levels the spot unit rate must be ludicrously low and the rate of cash flow has to be bringing tears even to Joel Hollander.

Whether or not WCBS-FM ever becomes an oldies station again (and strategically, as a business move, it should), it will certainly not be the same kind of station it is now for very much longer. It's owned by a company that has a track record of making horrible programming blunders (cf. WNEW as both a talk station and later as 'Blink')---but pulling the plug within months after those blunders become evident.

Jack's failure is now a fait accompli. The only question now on the table is, what does CBS, Inc. (which will be the parent company come January 1) do to restore that station's value?

Restoring oldies and signing favorite familiar voices is the easy and expeditious route. If they don't choose such a route because that would be too strong an admission of error, there are other possibilities---personality-driven modern country, or soft AC with a strong information/service component, just to name two.

Here's the book on Jack. If you bring jockless Jack to a typical market on a failing station, you get a temporary sampling spike and a superficially encouraging first book, before the decline sets in beginning in book 2 or book 3 after the change. If you DON'T go jockless but introduce likable personalities into the mix at the start or soon after, the decline may not set in at all, you may even sustain what you pull in during the launch phase. But we now know that if you kill a popular, even beloved station to bring jockless Jack to the market because of a strategic error, you don't even get that spike because you don't get the sampling---you get immediate rejection.

Jack as a PERSONALITY music format may very well have a long life if you program and promote it well and invest in talent like you do in any personality format. But it's not a format meant to be used the way a lot of companies are trying to do it---programmed on the cheap as an automated pushbutton format, run like a stuffed iPod on shuffle. That approach guarantees a SHORT life for whatever station uses it. And since that's how most companies are using Jack, they may well find out they've killed it with the American broadcast industry as a viable format choice before too long. It may soon fade just like jammin' oldies, Arrow and a lot of other concepts that sounded good in the initial meetings and even grabbed some initial listener sampling but failed long term when put on the air and programmed through a hard drive.
 
Re: Oldies?

> Halloween night- play Monster Mash at the stroke of
> midnight, hit the top of the hour jingle ID and hit BTO's
> "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet".
>
> 60s & 70s hits, no top 5 at 5 and "on this day in r&r
> history" drivel and hot, contemporary jingle package. Get
> great 70s top 40 jocks and avoid the old "oldies" trappings
> at all cost. 101.1 CBS-FM- THE GREATEST HITS (or whatever
> frequency they'd have the good sense to put the format back
> on).

You've just described the EXACT approach that Citadel took in Buffalo with WHTT, once known as "Oldies 104" and now known as "WHTT, Buffalo's Greatest Hits." Very personality intensive, 1964-86 hit music library, and jumped from a 5.6 in its last book as "Oldies 104" to a 7.0 in the just released Summer 2005 Arbitron 3 books later. A lot of the guys CBS-FM had at the end of its oldies run WERE the guys who played the hits for you during most of the 70s so you could begin with the people you had...and let the airstaff evolve normally through time.
 
Re: Cousin Jackie! Yeeeeeeeeeeeee!

I did not see Alan Freed there. Also Mad Daddy would go well after Wolfman.

> Okay....here's the perfect NY airstaff...
>
> Overnights.... Hal Jackson
> Nights..... Wolfman Jack
> Afternoons..... Jack daWack
> Middays.... Jack Spector
>
> and of course in mornings....
> RuPaul
>
<P ID="signature">______________
[email protected]</P>
 
Economics

Yes and no.

Major market radio is supported by major advertisers who work through advertising agencies. Oldies (and standards) continue to make money in smaller markets where stations are supported by local merchants, and where ratings are far less important in making the sale.

Agency media buyers and programmers do seem to prefer the rifle to the shotgun. Agency buys are targeted narrowly to core consumers/users of a given product. Programming is also narrowly targeted: short - least objectionable - playlists. Oldies stations only played a small fraction of the music which received airplay on the classic AM top 40 stations "in the day." Back then, stations worried less about music tune-out - as opposed to news tune-out - when two (or more) top 40 stations went head to head in a given market than recently when one station would be the only Oldies station in town.

Radio is a mass medium. Programmers and media buyers deal in statistics and aggragates, not individuals or exceptions. It's a numbers game.

Not all agency clients are good candidates for radio. For the most part, radio advertisers are consumer package goods, retail services (banks, insurance)and cars/car dealers. It seems people who market to the 50+ demo believe (rightly or wrongly) radio is the most cost-effective way to sell their product.

The $64,000.00 question is: For what products is the oldies listener the core target conumer? We are talking mostly baby boomers; empty nesters. They don't buy as many cans of soup as when the kids were home. Their houses are already filled with stuff. They have more extra income but much of it goes to retirement.

Radio stations sell the attention of listeners to advertisers. Programming is about getting that attention. It's sort of like McDonald's. A few years ago MickeyD put a healthy low-fat burger on the menu (made from soy and sea-weed). Not many people bought it. It was taken off the menu and replaced with a grilled chicken sandwich. Similarly, advertisers weren't buying oldies listeners, so Infinity (and other operators) have replaced oldies listeners on the menu with Jack listeners. McDonald's also can charge more for the chicken burger than the soy burger. Infinity can charge more for Gen X'ers than Boomers. Even it doesn't sell as many of them, it makes a better profit.


>
> Then why did WCBS flip if it doesn't matter? If it was #1,
> even 54+,
> it would still be oldies.
>
> That's partially true. It's the agencies that have created
> this urban
> legend. It'll be interesting to see how they reconnect the
> advertisers
> when such a large share of the population is 45+ in the
> years ahead,
> won't it? 54+ is history. Oldies has been given a pre-mature
> death
> sentence, and it's in a state of flux for sure, but there
> will be
> some survivors. If any where to be around, WCBS should have
> been one.
>
> According to you, ratings (i.e. demand) doesn't matter. Hum.
>
>
> Hence, it makes sense for lower ratings in the target 25-54
> group
> so Jack IS successful!!!
>
> Honestly, mwebster, I see your points very clearly. I still
> think the
> overall problem is one you would agree with. This self
> inflicted myopic
> "one size fits all" marketing/format plan radio has embraced
> is killing
> it from the inside out. Find the niche, market it properly
> and see it
> through. If oldies works in NY, but nowhere else, go for it.
> Same with
> Jack, Country, Polka, whatever. Just reach the intended
> audience. Why
> has Jack not done that in NY?
>
 
Re: real ratings

> And, by the way- nobody but NOBODY cares about 12+.
>
>

>
I love the mantra. If NOBODY cares about 12+ why does Arbitron publish them?
 
ratings

Because it's a practice that goes back some 30 years. And, it gives them something to publish without giving out detailed info for non-subscribers.
If a non-subscriber sees they're doing great 12+, they may change their mind
and begin subscribing.

> >
> I love the mantra. If NOBODY cares about 12+ why does
> Arbitron publish them?
>
 
Re: ratings

> Because it's a practice that goes back some 30 years. And,
> it gives them something to publish without giving out
> detailed info for non-subscribers.
> If a non-subscriber sees they're doing great 12+, they may
> change their mind
> and begin subscribing.
Unless you work in radio sales I find this hard to believe. They may not sell a station by 12 plus alone but having worked in radio in NYC for nearly 30 years, I've never heard that 12+ was just for show. For that matter the 25 to 54 is also bogus because there's more to sales than those rough numbers. There are different dayparts morning/afternoon drive, and how many men/woman and income levels etc which are factors.
 
Re: ratings

Well, then try going through any reputable or successful ad agency and ask them how they buy radio time using 12+ numbers- they don't.

I don't disagree the fascination with 25-54 is somewhat bogus- it's just what's being used (and, increasingly, 18-49).

Maybe "nearly 30 years" ago (if not longer) 12+ meant more. As radio has gotten more and more specialized, it's ONLY use is for publication on industry sites and mags. This isn't a personal opinion- it's the way of the radio world.

> Unless you work in radio sales I find this hard to believe.
> They may not sell a station by 12 plus alone but having
> worked in radio in NYC for nearly 30 years, I've never heard
> that 12+ was just for show. For that matter the 25 to 54 is
> also bogus because there's more to sales than those rough
> numbers. There are different dayparts morning/afternoon
> drive, and how many men/woman and income levels etc which
> are factors.
>
 
Re: Cousin Jackie! Yeeeeeeeeeeeee!

> I did not see Alan Freed there. Also Mad Daddy would go
> well after Wolfman.
>

Seemed like "JACK" was the theme.
 
Re: What could WCBS do to flip back to Oldies?/Pipe Dreams Can Come True.

> > So, for the fun of thinking that the unthinkable could
> > happen
> > because it's just radio....
>
> Here's how they do it.
>
> At 3 minutes to midnight on New Year's Eve, the snarky
> announcer says, "Ok, New York, we got the message." Cue up
> Ray Charles, "Hit The Road, Jack." Then at midnight, a Monty
> Python voice says in a tone reminiscent of the end of the
> "Death of Mary Queen of Scots" skit, "And now, Jack-FM,
> WCBS-FM New York, will explode." TNT sfx, followed by a
> clock ticking all weekend, with periodic taped voice (NOT
> Howard Cogan) saying at the top of every hour, "A different
> WCBS-FM New York debuts January 3 at 6 AM."
>
> Now at a minute to 6 AM on Monday 1/3/06, the ticking clock
> fades, a very contrite voice comes on and says, "We're
> sorry...we know we hurt you...but we promise we won't do it
> again. Please give us another chance." Cue the old CBS-FM
> top of the hour ID/jingle; next voice you hear is Harry
> Harrison wishing you the precious gift of a good morning
> (because that IS what you deserve) over the intro of the
> Four Seasons' "Workin' My Way Back To You, Babe."
>
> You know how it goes the rest of the day...and every day
> thereafter...
>
> Winter '06 book shows a 3.6 12+, 4.0 25-54.
>
> Everyone smiles including Les Moonves and about 1.5 million
> weekly cume listeners who suddenly have a favorite station
> again.
>



BobSmith:

I think a 4.5 is even better, and 6.0 25-54.


And to hear Harry Harrison again in AM Drive kicking off WCBS-FM's rebirth as the Oldies station we knew would be the next best thing to happen in New York radio. The best thing would be the resurrection of the old WNEW-AM either on 102.7FM but they are having an surge with Classic Dance, or on its old frequency 1130AM.

I think nothing is impossible. Nobody would've ever thought WOR dropping the John Gambling Show which was an institution for 75 years on that station.



Thanks,
Kevin L. Sealy
<P ID="signature">______________
Kevin L. Sealy</P>
 
Re: What could WCBS do to flip back to Oldies?/Pipe Dreams Can Come True.

> > So, for the fun of thinking that the unthinkable could
> > happen
> > because it's just radio....
>
> Here's how they do it.
>
> At 3 minutes to midnight on New Year's Eve, the snarky
> announcer says, "Ok, New York, we got the message." Cue up
> Ray Charles, "Hit The Road, Jack." Then at midnight, a Monty
> Python voice says in a tone reminiscent of the end of the
> "Death of Mary Queen of Scots" skit, "And now, Jack-FM,
> WCBS-FM New York, will explode." TNT sfx, followed by a
> clock ticking all weekend, with periodic taped voice (NOT
> Howard Cogan) saying at the top of every hour, "A different
> WCBS-FM New York debuts January 3 at 6 AM."
>
> Now at a minute to 6 AM on Monday 1/3/06, the ticking clock
> fades, a very contrite voice comes on and says, "We're
> sorry...we know we hurt you...but we promise we won't do it
> again. Please give us another chance." Cue the old CBS-FM
> top of the hour ID/jingle; next voice you hear is Harry
> Harrison wishing you the precious gift of a good morning
> (because that IS what you deserve) over the intro of the
> Four Seasons' "Workin' My Way Back To You, Babe."
>
> You know how it goes the rest of the day...and every day
> thereafter...
>
> Winter '06 book shows a 3.6 12+, 4.0 25-54.
>
> Everyone smiles including Les Moonves and about 1.5 million
> weekly cume listeners who suddenly have a favorite station
> again.
>



BobSmith:

I think a 4.5 is even better, and 6.0 25-54.


And to hear Harry Harrison again in AM Drive kicking off WCBS-FM's rebirth as the Oldies station we knew would be the next best thing to happen in New York radio. The best thing would be the resurrection of the old WNEW-AM either on 102.7FM but they are having a surge with Classic Dance, or on its old frequency 1130AM.

I think nothing is impossible. Nobody would've ever thought WOR dropping the John Gambling Show which was an institution for 75 years on that station.



Thanks,
Kevin L. Sealy
<P ID="signature">______________
Kevin L. Sealy</P>
 
Re: Oldies?

> Where are you getting this "coast to coast Oldies ratings
> are on the rise EVERYWHERE" information? In the newest
> summer ratings, only a handful of markets have been released
> so far and, other than WMJI in Cleveland, Oldies ratings are
> actually DOWN just about everywhere (sad to say).
>
> What "quick peek" are you looking at?
>
>
> > If the "suits' at mainstream radio were all that smart and
>
> > in touch,they wouldn't be losing listeners overall by the
> > dumptruck loads daily,as they are.A quick peak at the
> brand
> > new ratings shows Oldies format ratings on the rise
> > EVERYWHERE,coast to coast,while Jack is hardly the earth
> > shaking hit that some would try to convince us of(to no
> > success.)And in NY,Jack has 666 on the back of it's neck;
> > it's all OVER!
> ALL ACCESS.COM ran ratings update all this week, and EVERY station listed as "Oldies" showed upward trending.
 
Re: Oldies?

> Don't count JACK out in New York quite so soon, Jimi. We
> haven't.
>
> CJ
> Well, tell them to PUNK out,grow a pair,play some Sex Pistols,Cherry Vanilla, New York Dolls and Wayne/Jayne County and THEN I'll be impressed(playing what WE want!)
 
Re: ratings

> Well, then try going through any reputable or successful ad
> agency and ask them how they buy radio time using 12+
> numbers- they don't.
>
Well that's news to me. I've only worked in network radio at the studio level for 28 years. I've never delt with sales people and agency's.
 
12+

All I can tell you is stations don't make money based on 12+ numbers and stations don't make strategic or personnel decisions based on 12+. Those facts alone make the "overall demo" of 12+ pretty much useless.

> >
> Well that's news to me. I've only worked in network radio at
> the studio level for 28 years. I've never delt with sales
> people and agency's.
>
 
Re: I have never seen a 12+ buy.

> > Well, then try going through any reputable or successful
> ad
> > agency and ask them how they buy radio time using 12+
> > numbers- they don't.
> >
> Well that's news to me. I've only worked in network radio at
> the studio level for 28 years. I've never delt with sales
> people and agency's.
>

I have never seen an agency buy made against 12+ in all the years I have been amanger, GSM or done sales support.

If you had dealings with sellers or buyers, you would know most campaigns are very tightly targeted, with 25=54 or some part of that demo being the base for about 80% of all buys.
 
Re: Oldies?

> > ALL ACCESS.COM ran ratings update all this week, and EVERY
> station listed as "Oldies" showed upward trending.
>

Only a few markets are out, so any conclusions are very suspect.

And no oldies station was up in 25-54, which is all that counts.
 
up Oldies?

Actually, WWSW-Pittsburgh was up almost a full point 25-54 (I should know- I've been taking s&@t from 2 a-holes on the Pittsburgh board for a week for referring to Arbitron in regard to 3WS <lol> You'd get a big kick out of it).


> Only a few markets are out, so any conclusions are very
> suspect. And no oldies station was up in 25-54, which is all that counts.
>
 
Re: up Oldies?

> Actually, WWSW-Pittsburgh was up almost a full point 25-54
> (I should know- I've been taking s&@t from 2 a-holes on the
> Pittsburgh board for a week for referring to Arbitron in
> regard to 3WS You'd get a big kick out of it).

Was that a real increase, or a return to prior levels after a bad Spring book? That is a pretty unusual move, and a big one to boot. Any change in mix? More 70's?
 
Re: 12+

> All I can tell you is stations don't make money based on 12+
> numbers and stations don't make strategic or personnel
> decisions based on 12+. Those facts alone make the "overall
> demo" of 12+ pretty much useless.
>
> > >
> > Well that's news to me. I've only worked in network radio
> at
> > the studio level for 28 years. I've never delt with sales
> > people and agency's.
> >
>

Unless you are with Disney, maybe. Probably not.
Even the age under 30 is suspect these days, which
I think is somewhat misplaced, but probably somewhat
logical.
 
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