Who Goes To FM First? KNX or KFI

[KeithE4]

AM is still a valuable medium. Maybe in 10 or 15 years, the above postings may be true. But of the top earning radio stations in the country, many of them are still exclusively on the AM band: WCBS, KFI, WINS, WFAN, WGN, WLS, KYW, KGO. In the LA market, about half the FM stations don't earn what KNX earns. And KFI I believe is right behind KIIS in earnings.

You mention the "big boys" - the only ones, along with the other ex-1A stations, with a chance of survival more than another 10 years if they don't move to FM. Maybe. But those 50-gallon transmitters are expensive to run, those towers are expensive to maintain, and the land they sit on is valuable.

So predictions of AM's demise are premature. Even a so-so AM station higher on the dial in a decent sized market sells for close to a million dollars.

You sure about that? Higher on the dial (1230 and up) is all but death in AM radio. And how much of that million dollars is for the land the towers sit on? If the rumors are true, The Mickey Mouse Outfit is thinking about getting out of the AM radio business, at least as far as Radio Disney is concerned. We'll see how much they get for their stations if they do sell, including the 50 kW-ers in LA and Phoenix. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost money on most, if not all of them.

And Merlin Media might have scared CBS into flipping an underperforming FM station in Chicago to News. But I think now that Merlin Media's stations in NYC and Chicago are so odd and poorly programmed, I'd bet CBS is thinking it over-reacted in giving WBBM an FM signal.

WBBM will be successful on FM, just like KCBS is in SF. In another couple of years, I'm willing to bet that more people will listen to WBBM on 105.9 than on 780. Those Merlin Media stations are a joke anyway.

 

[uncamark]

WBBM will be successful on FM, just like KCBS is in SF. In another couple of years, I'm willing to bet that more people will listen to WBBM on 105.9 than on 780. Those Merlin Media stations are a joke anyway.

I assume you also thought all-sports and variety hits formats (Jack, Bob, etc.) were jokes. You aren't the target audience for Merlin's stations and it's way too early to proclaim them failures.

 

[Gregg]

WBBM-AM in Chicago was already #1 in the market. The new AM-FM simulcast will have to exceed WBBM's ratings plus WCFS's ratings, or the combo makes no sense. (We can't use exact ratings here, but the WBBM simulcast will have to hit a seven share or better to succeed.)

As for the Merlin news-and-fluff format, I'm not the target audience and I don't understand it. I thought All-Sports would work. I had some misgivings about Jack and that was correct. It's been a big hit in Dallas, LA, San Diego, etc. Yet it crashed and burned in NYC, Chicago and other markets.

But believe me. As the current Merlin format is playing out in NYC and Chicago, it's not going to find an audience. It makes no sense. Sometimes it's about real news. Sometimes it's about the Kardasians and American Idol. One audience isn't going to sit through what pleases the other audience. As it is currently conceived, it isn't going to work. CBS should NOT blow up an existing FM station (all of them currently in the Top 12) to simulcast KNX on FM.



Gregg
[email protected]

 

[KeithE4]

WBBM will be successful on FM, just like KCBS is in SF. In another couple of years, I'm willing to bet that more people will listen to WBBM on 105.9 than on 780. Those Merlin Media stations are a joke anyway.

I assume you also thought all-sports and variety hits formats (Jack, Bob, etc.) were jokes.

All-sports is so completely "not a joke" that it will remove itself from the AM dial completely in another 5 or 10 years, as music formats disappear. The next generation of kids won't even know what a "radio" is (even if they do today), so why broadcast music formats to people who won't listen?

Our "Jack" station in Phoenix, called The Peak, is actually not bad, but it's owned by Bonneville, it's one of only two FMs that they own (the other being news/talk KTAR-FM), and unless they buy another station or two, has a pretty good chance of becoming all-sports in the future. The audience is on FM, and the teams they broadcast (which is almost all of them) will want to be as well.

You aren't the target audience for Merlin's stations and it's way too early to proclaim them failures.

I may not be a broadcast professional, but I know professional-sounding news radio when I hear it. And on 101.1 in Chicago (streaming in my case, of course), I don't hear it. Hopefully they'll get better as time goes on, but right now, Merlin's Chicago station is a joke, especially compared to WBBM.

 

[semoochie]

"But of the top earning radio stations in the country, many of them are still exclusively on the AM band: WCBS, KFI, WINS, WFAN, WGN, WLS, KYW, KGO." In five years, I'm sure that all of these stations will continue to do well but most will be on FM. As long as AM continues not to draw any(figuratively)new listeners, new technology will continue not including it in its devices and then, it will just be a matter of time before it all comes crashing down because there won't be any way of tuning in the band!

 

[Lopaka]

This could merit a new thread, but what is the future for AM? If it is actually dying as a commercial proposition, what happens to it--static? Police and fire calls? Hams? Neighborhood mom and pop irregular hours amateur operations? Let the pirates at it? How about make the 88-92 mc band commercial and transfer educational/non profit to AM, or a part of it? To me, having grown up with AM the idea of it going out of business seems totally impossible, but technology does move on. I picture it kind of like the newspaper business, definitely contracting but still existing because it fits certain niches, not everybody has a computer or advanced media device, millions of people still live in rural areas where FM doesn't reach, it has long distance coverage potential, etc. The idea of AM going out of business never even crossed my mind, but neither did the idea of newspapers going out of business, or the USSR going out of business peacefully.

 

[semoochie]

Sometime back, AT&T asked the FCC for a hard date to discontinue land line service. Before this occurs, cell phone use will be nearly universal and with it, all the new apps, even in rural areas.

 

[KeithE4]

This could merit a new thread, but what is the future for AM? If it is actually dying as a commercial proposition, what happens to it--static? Police and fire calls? Hams? Neighborhood mom and pop irregular hours amateur operations? Let the pirates at it?

Religious broadcasters (whom I think will be a majority on AM), a few remaining geezer-friendly formats like partisan political talk & adult standards (at least until those listeners assume room temperature), and non-Spanish-language ethnic broadcasters, especially in the major cities. But in order to survive, there has to be an audience. Nobody younger than 55 grew up with AM as their primary radio band. And as AM listeners my age and older die off, we won't be replaced.

The 530-1700 kHz band is a worldwide broadcast allocation, so it can't be allocated to other services. Hams would probably love to get ahold of some of that spectrum, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

How about make the 88-92 mc band commercial and transfer educational/non profit to AM, or a part of it?

The chances of that happening are zero. Once FM got started in the '40s, most of the existing non-comm AM stations migrated there. There were some exceptions (WBAA, WHA, WILL, and a few others) but even those will eventually have to sell or shut down their AM operations due to lack of interest. IIRC, WOSU in Columbus OH has recently been sold.

To me, having grown up with AM the idea of it going out of business seems totally impossible, but technology does move on. I picture it kind of like the newspaper business, definitely contracting but still existing because it fits certain niches, not everybody has a computer or advanced media device, millions of people still live in rural areas where FM doesn't reach, it has long distance coverage potential, etc. The idea of AM going out of business never even crossed my mind, but neither did the idea of newspapers going out of business, or the USSR going out of business peacefully.

The world changes, and some people just need to deal with it. The decline of AM has been coming for 40 years. The era of the "disk jockey" is over. Their place is next to the "radio actors" of pre-1960. DJs replaced actors, and uninterrupted music is replacing DJs. Talk on FM is replacing talk on AM, and music on the interwebs is replacing music on FM. The next to go will be partisan talk-show hosts (both liberal and conservative). Once Limbaugh and his ilk retire and that audience dies off (again, of old age), I think we'll see a decline in foaming-at-the-mouth political talk.

The internet will also replace cable/satellite TV in the future. We're not there yet, but internet TV in 2011 is at the same relative stage that broadcast TV was in 1952, or cable TV was in 1977 - limited, but improving quickly.

And how many people live outside of the range of at least one FM station? With the exception of maybe parts of the interior of Alaska, I'll say "none."

 

[LKellerIII]

At the risk of stating the obvious, the seeds for the replacement of disc-jockeys by uninterrupted music - started with the rising popularity of the FM band. First, 50 or more years ago, there were FM music stations that were automated because they couldn't afford DJs given that they had few listeners and couldn't sell advertising.

That was followed a little more than 40 years ago by the progressive rock stations which started to attract young listeners - and consistently ran at least 3 songs in a row with no DJ interruption (or jingles or sweepers either, for that matter).

If any of you recall the original KLOS DJs in the "Rock 'N Stereo" Days of the very early 70s (Jim Ladd was one), the DJs back-announced the songs in about 10 seconds, read the weather forecast, then shut up. Jocks like B. Mitchell Reed on competing KMET were allowed to talk on a little longer, but even they talked very sparingly for the most part. Radio's emphasis on DJ comedy, and "personality" jocks in general - started to die off at that point. Most of the baby boomer listeners (now well over 55) liked the format. "Shut Up and Play the Music" was a popular viewpoint even then.

 

[MarioMania]

So in coming years AM just going to be talk/news & Brokered programming

 

[emailfailed]

So in coming years AM just going to be talk/news & Brokered programming

Scan around the AM dial right now, it pretty much is that already.

 

[LKellerIII]

So in coming years AM just going to be talk/news & Brokered programming

Scan around the AM dial right now, it pretty much is that already.

Yes, except add sports and religious stations and you've got it. Other than Radio Disney, I think there are one or two AMs in the Bay Area that still play music, but they are either low power repeaters of out of town FMs, or specialty formats in the fringes of the area - like the low powered FM in Vallejo that plays gospel music.

 

[MarioMania]

I thought in coming years..most of the AM's going to go dark

 

[Lopaka]

If KNX went on FM exclusively I would hope they'd add some FM signals around So. California, especially one for San Diego. KNX is one of only two AMs I have punched on the car radio, the other being XEPRS, no LA FM signal makes it totally reliably into San Diego (KRTH being the most dependable) so adding a signal here would be very helpful. Maybe they could even sell it locally. KFI, sadly, no loss. You heard the right wing stuff once, you heard it all; the song of canaries never varies.

 

[badjef]

One problem with Merlin nabbing KXOS: Emmis still has Groupo Radio Centro leasing the station. If anything, chances are that Bonneville's KSWD could be the one they go after.

KXOS is doing quite wrechedly. There have always been just about 3 Spanish pop/CHR shares in LA, and that is what KSSE and KXOS are splitting now.

Let's suppose that publicly traded Grupo Radio Centro is feeling some stress over LA. And Merlin is feeling well financed. Then Merlin buys out the GRC contract, accelerates the option to buy, and both are happy; Emmis might like this since they got both cash and equity out of the Chicago deals.

I have a really hard time visualizing the heads of Merlin and Bonneville sitting at a negotiating table.

Put a dollar bill in the center of the table. ;D
...make it $100.

Jeff in Sa-ra-so-ta!

 

[davideduardo]

If KNX went on FM exclusively I would hope they'd add some FM signals around So. California, especially one for San Diego. KNX is one of only two AMs I have punched on the car radio, the other being XEPRS, no LA FM signal makes it totally reliably into San Diego (KRTH being the most dependable) so adding a signal here would be very helpful. Maybe they could even sell it locally. KFI, sadly, no loss. You heard the right wing stuff once, you heard it all; the song of canaries never varies.

The issue here is that San Diego is a separate media market, and there is no financial advantage for any LA station to simulcast in San Diego. In fact, even though many LA FMs and some of the AMs cover the Riverside / San Bernardino market as well as the Ventura / Oxnard market, they really gain no revenue from that, either.

The San Diego market is so much smaller than the LA market that there would not be much incentive for buyers to go through the unorthodox procedure of trying to buy SD with an LA station.

While KNX is a strong biller, Jack and KROQ bill more and KRTH bills about the same. But the real issue is that KFI bills 50% more than KNX, so the real question would be what might happen on FM in the news / talk arena, not in the all-news field. LA can't support two all newsers, and it is questionable whether putting all news on a simulcast makes sense... yet.

 

[davideduardo]

I have a really hard time visualizing the heads of Merlin and Bonneville sitting at a negotiating table.

Put a dollar bill in the center of the table. ;D
...make it $100.

That is what would likely make Bonneville even less prone to "taking a meeting."