Who's flipping to Country?

[vadar]

Every GM (except at Cox) has got to be looking at the market reseach and consulting with corporate and consultants on this one. WPCV is NOT Orlando. You flip Power or Jamz to country, make it current, hip, add killer imaging, get solid talent in and you have a winner. There are three Spanish stations, three Urbans, 2 AC/Hot AC's, etc...

There's room for a new country station, just commit long term, execute everyday and be patient!!!

 

[Batmite]

You flip Power or Jamz to country, make it current, hip, add killer imaging, get solid talent in and you have a winner. There are three Spanish stations, three Urbans, 2 AC/Hot AC's, etc...

There's room for a new country station, just commit long term, execute everyday and be patient!!!

It ain't gonna be Power

 

[ThatGuyOnTheRadio]

You flip Power or Jamz to country, make it current, hip, add killer imaging, get solid talent in and you have a winner. There are three Spanish stations, three Urbans, 2 AC/Hot AC's, etc...

There's room for a new country station, just commit long term, execute everyday and be patient!!!

It ain't gonna be Power

Right, since COX owns Power.

 

[Just Me]

Orlando will not support 2 Country Stations. COX learned that with the B94.5 Experiment years ago. The best That Can happen is CBS or Clear Channel will do a Country BETTER than COX,2 Years Down the Road COX throws in the towel.

 

[davideduardo]

You flip Power or Jamz to country, make it current, hip, add killer imaging, get solid talent in and you have a winner. There are three Spanish stations, three Urbans, 2 AC/Hot AC's, etc...

The problem with that logic is that what you consider to be one format may be two or three formats.

Soft AC is not the same as Hot AC. The demographics are different and the competitors are different.

Urban AC is not the same as Urban or Churban.

And "Spanish" is not a format, it's a language. There is a Spanish language CHR, a Spanish language rhythmic and a Spanish language oldies station in Orlando. They are not the same.

The real issue is whether there is any potential for growth in the market total country shares; if you get, initially, 40% of the WWKA shares and a third of the revenue, you are billing around $3 million and that would be lower than the current billing of any full signal FM.

WPYO bills less, but the fact that the signal is much more limited makes it a really, really poor choice for country.

 

[Batmite]

Orlando will not support 2 Country Stations. COX learned that with the B94.5 Experiment years ago. The best That Can happen is CBS or Clear Channel will do a Country BETTER than COX,2 Years Down the Road COX throws in the towel.

Cox threw in the towel because B94.5 was gaining a better following than K92. You can't have the flanking station beat the cash cow. The audience is there. Orlando is one of the best selling markets for country music. It must be doing something right, you can hear Jason Aldean, The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Hot AC and Top 40 stations.

 

[Batmite]

You flip Power or Jamz to country, make it current, hip, add killer imaging, get solid talent in and you have a winner. There are three Spanish stations, three Urbans, 2 AC/Hot AC's, etc...

There's room for a new country station, just commit long term, execute everyday and be patient!!!

It ain't gonna be Power

Right, since COX owns Power.

That was the point, but thanks for the backup

 

[davideduardo]

Orlando is one of the best selling markets for country music. It must be doing something right, you can hear Jason Aldean, The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Hot AC and Top 40 stations.

Lady Antebellum has, this week, two songs on the top 40 chart at Las 30 Principales, a CHR station in Santiago, Chile.

In other words, the fact that there are crossovers does not mean anything in this context.

 

[tanner]

Also, back during B94.5 days country was not as popular as it is today.

 

[Parttimer]

Cox threw in the towel because B94.5 was gaining a better following than K92. You can't have the flanking station beat the cash cow. The audience is there. Orlando is one of the best selling markets for country music. It must be doing something right, you can hear Jason Aldean, The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Hot AC and Top 40 stations.

You can hear The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Z100 in NY.

B94.5 was set up to fail. No one has tried to compete with K92 in what, 30 years? (If I recall correctly, 98.1 was aimed at Brevard when it was country, before it became Mega...).

 

[TheBigA]

You can hear The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Z100 in NY.

But only one song by each. In the 90s, practically every song Shania Twain and Faith Hill released crossed over.

The Jason Aldean song is getting airplay because it's a duet with Kelly Clarkson.

The CBS Orlando cluster is run by a guy who previously ran the CBS country station in Chicago.

 

[vadar]

Wow, love all the naysayers here.....NOT!!!!!

Seriously, it's time for another country powerhouse. This is a viable and hot format. There are plenty of underperforming 100k stations ready to flip.

 

[jmtillery]

There are plenty of underperforming 100k stations ready to flip.

Which Orlando (Central Florida) 100kw stations are "underperforming"?

 

[davideduardo]

Wow, love all the naysayers here.....NOT!!!!!

Seriously, it's time for another country powerhouse. This is a viable and hot format. There are plenty of underperforming 100k stations ready to flip.

Let's look at the math, not personal preferances.

K92 bills right around $8 million. A new station, figuring to hopefully carve out an initial nut of about half that (more on this dangerous assumption in a moment) would thus bill about $4 million. No 100 kw FM that is home to the metro is doing that low a figure right now now. Every single one bills over $4 million.

Then there is the startup cost. To flip a format, you lose a lot of your revenue. If you go from urban or Churban to country, you would likely lose nearly all of it. If you go from A/C to country, you lose some of it. And so on.

Nobody will pay rates that are based on one demographic for another, and they will not pay for unproven results vs. proven ones. Agencies like to see four, six and even 12 months of rolling multi-book averages. Just like in the diary, where agencies used two-book and four book averages, they do the same with PPM to make sure the investment in advertising is based on solid facts.

So, while you are building a hopefully meaningful share and a track record of many, many books, you are going to bill a lot less than you are now. So, an owner would wipe out $4.5 million or more in current billings, incur high start-up expenses (including severance for the existing staff, promotion, etc) and lose money for perhaps a year or more... even if they beat K92 eventually and get higher billing, it will take several years of really good profits to make back the millions lost in doing the switch.

Then there is the "tradition" factor with K92. They have annual or extended period buys and a firm client base. Even a station that beats them in the ratings is going to be the underdog for several years because they are new and unproven.

This is just so not going to happen.

As Dr. Tillery has shown with his posts, the only "less to lose" station is not even home to the market. It might cost $1 million or more to raise the tower of WPCV in order to put a usable signal over more of Orlando. At present the 70 dbu... where in most cases 85% of the at home and at work listening occurs... just barely gets north to downtown Orlando. Good signal, yes, but not competitive.

And... ready for this?... WPCV already bills $4 million in a market they "own" where they don't have to get into a PPM battle with a dozen other very good stations.

High costs, no underperforming stations, no guarantees, bad economy. While radio has its normal quotient of idiots who might do something terminally stupid, there is not much of a case to be made for becoming country station number two in the market.

 

[Ai4i]

And... ready for this?... WPCV already bills $4 million in a market they "own" where they don't have to get into a PPM battle with a dozen other very good stations.

Just a thought from one who is less knowledgeable on the subject:
How much of that would they have to surrender?
Couldn't an improved signal just add without taking away?

 

[davideduardo]

Just a thought from one who is less knowledgeable on the subject:
How much of that would they have to surrender?
Couldn't an improved signal just add without taking away?

Generally, listeners "know" that a station is not directed at the place that they live. A station with ads for places they can't shop due to distance or with car dealer remotes from 100 miles away is not "for them."

That would mean that a station aiming to serve a larger market would have to sound in every way part of that market, not part of one perceived as being more rural or less cosmopolitan.

Then there is the issue of rates. Orlando rates are higher, and a lot of the business is agency business... meaning that they can't continue to sell the typical smaller market retail packages and accommodate a higher rate structure for Orlando.

I think that, if a station tries to have two business models, neither will work.

 

[Just Me]

Also, back during B94.5 days country was not as popular as it is today.

I'm speaking REGIONALLY...The Available Country Demo is not as LARGE as it was in Orlando or Daytona Beach as it was years ago.NATIONALLY YES,Country has a larger following but the Demographic make up is more DIVERSE than it was When K-92 Flipped to Country and when you had WHOO and K-92 (plus 105.9 in Volusia),or later when you had K-92 and B94.5 in Orlando and 98FROG in Daytona..the Country Pie in Orlando and the Daytona area is much smaller...IMHO this also explains K-92's Changes to try and grab some younger Demo's from XL,WOMX and whereever else.

 

[Batmite]

Orlando is one of the best selling markets for country music. It must be doing something right, you can hear Jason Aldean, The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum on Hot AC and Top 40 stations.

Lady Antebellum has, this week, two songs on the top 40 chart at Las 30 Principales, a CHR station in Santiago, Chile.

In other words, the fact that there are crossovers does not mean anything in this context.

It means country is still very popular. Knowing what happens in Chile means nothing on this board.

 

[vadar]

When I say "underperforming" I really mean who has the best opportunity to improve 12+. I like the buzz this thread has created and as you can tell feel passionately we can support another country station here in Orlando. Just my two cents and I like the logic and reasons why/why not. Time will tell I guess........

 

[davideduardo]

When I say "underperforming" I really mean who has the best opportunity to improve 12+.

Nobody wants to improve 12+ unless those improvements are reflected in demos like 18-49, 18-34 or 25-54.