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Writers Strike 2023?
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repeating stories like the hours of morning news?
🙄🙄🙄So what? People watch for the portion that works for them. No one, figuratively, is watching hours on end of local morning news. But the station keeps the revenue.
First of all, thank you for the thoughtful and detailed response. IIRC, the ROI on scripted programming isn't great. Sure, they'll hurt, but I believe the majority of advertising revenue comes from sports, so I wonder by how much. Ratings for scripted shows are VERY low at this point (even compared to 2008, but especially compared to the 90's).
Are Iger's comments around advertising, or the collapse of the Cable TV model? I thought, at least at a local station level, that more money was made from retransmission agreements than advertising during network programs. No problem being wrong here, just curious.
Good point on the movie scripts. So SAG-AFTRA is more important to the continuation of movies than the WGA. I thought I read that some movies stopped production when the WGA strike happened, but I may be wrong on that too.
Oh, I completely get that. I was more thinking that theaters were a NECESSITY for studios in their business model. Perhaps the studios owning the theater changes the profit model? But yeah, I can read the financial statements and see for my own eyes that theaters haven't been profitable for a while. But, the studios still make the majority of movie profits at the theaters.
Again, thanks for the thoughtful response. We certainly are in INTERESTING times. On the one hand, I really get the concerns that the writers and actors have, especially around how AI is used in the next few years. But, alternatively, OVERALL none of the studios are doing all that great right now, and some of the demands could fundamentallly change business models (such as ending the "all you can eat" streaming model). I can understand why both sides feel like these negotiations are so critical, maybe it'll make me go outside more this fall.
It's cheap, because a lot of the content can be recycled. And, even among declining ad revenues, stations keep 100% of ad sales for news whereas syndication/network programming usually comes with stipulations on sharing ad sales or giving a certain number of minutes to the distributor every hour. If anything, local news makes MORE sense among declining ad revenues.
Not like it used to be during the days of 'appointment viewing'. Once Tivo and DVR's came along where viewers can skip past spots, the value and return on scripted programming took a big hit.
Not necessarily. Most professional sports leagues have some sort of a sharing agreement with the network, in spite of the escalating rights fees that networks pay. Bally's Sports as an RSN is a great example of how the rights fees have overtaken the ad revenue potential. In the case of Bally's and Diamond Sports, both are in big financial trouble because of less ad inventory that they own, versus the rights fees teams charge and the amount of ad revenue taken by the league or team.
2008 was a very dark year for broadcast, radio, and TV. The valuation bottom fell out of both industries. Headwinds for broadcasters in the form of advertiser support started changing then too, because advertising started migrating online. And yet, the expectation is that media companies still need to produce scripted shows that may or may not make it.
Yes. Bob was talking about the viability of local stations and the networks that feed them.
Local retrans fees pretty much topped out around 2005, and haven't increased much since 2008. In fact, since Comcast bought NBC Universal, so that solved the problem of escalating retrans fees.
Depends on the movie. Some are more loosely written where changes or major scene rewrites are done during shooting, or scenes are reshot during the editing process. Other movies are written and shot, but editing is in process.
The pandemic proved that movies could be rolled out on streaming/PPV as required. If anything, streaming has damaged theaters.
Because they take all the ticket sale revenue plus now streaming. The theater just gets the concession revenue.
Heard an interview the other day with a former regular actress on CSI. She used to do occasional 'guest' slots, but the studios could now in theory use her likeness and synthesized voice for a guest slot, with her not getting a penny. Also, residual payments have become a thing of the past for shows that stream because (in her case) the contract only covered residuals for network TV airing and reruns. If a show is rerun via a streaming platform, actors get something ridiculous like ten cents for each time the show airs. As a contractor/actor, residuals are typically used to pay for their union dues, cover healthcare co-pays, and some sort of income between gigs.
I was serious about the studios and networks being pushed into a corner with the length of the strike. Expect more lame reality shows like 'Morons on Mars', 'Stranded On A Raft', or whatever. The strike is going to force the hand of using AI to write shows sooner than expected.
I think what you'll see is like Disney; cutting divisions loose when they become too much of a sea anchor on the larger organization.
NBC cut their 12:35am late night show back in 2021 and CBS is cutting their 11:35 talk show. Of course with the strikes going on I don't know if the new show replacing it will premiere in the fall like they wanted.
So they could keep airing the Late Late show reruns or they could scrap it all together and possibly air repeats of scripted shows like they did back when they David Letterman retired and they brought back their Crimetime after primetime block back for a short time of course repeats of cbs shows and not new episodes like back in the late 80's/early 90's.
So they could keep airing the Late Late show reruns or they could scrap it all together and possibly air repeats of scripted shows like they did back when they David Letterman retired and they brought back their Crimetime after primetime block back for a short time of course repeats of cbs shows and not new episodes like back in the late 80's/early 90's.
You obviously mean Central time. Because NBC cut what was Lilly Singh's show at 1:37AM ET/PT and James Corden left CBS at 12:37AM.
Yes, more lame reality shows are coming...if the behind-the-scenes/hosting talent can be found and they aren't part of the WGA or SAG-AFTRA. I expect winter seasons of summer game shows and reality shows too. That's why ABC moved Press Your Luck to the fall. There were no intentions to air PYL in the fall until the WGA strike started.
That's why I said there will be a large drop in TV audience, and families will (hopefully!) look to other sources of entertainment and ways to come together.
Yes, more lame reality shows are coming...if the behind-the-scenes/hosting talent can be found and they aren't part of the WGA or SAG-AFTRA. I expect winter seasons of summer game shows and reality shows too. That's why ABC moved Press Your Luck to the fall. There were no intentions to air PYL in the fall until the WGA strike started.
That's why I said there will be a large drop in TV audience, and families will (hopefully!) look to other sources of entertainment and ways to come together.
Yes looking at some of the stuff for the fall it don't look to promising for the networks.
Oh definitely. I just don't know if that is because retrans fees are on a steep decline due to cordcutting, or if it is due to needing more scripted content. ESPN has seen steep declines because of cordcutting, I have to think that TV stations are seeing the same, since those fees are typically "per subscriber".
Oh, they sure can, but at a significant revenue reduction. No way a Marvel movie will make a billion dollars in PPV, and certainly not in Disney+.
See, this is where I feel there is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" and I think consumers will lose in the end. COMPLETELY believe that actors and writers should be compensated for stuff I stream, but how do you work that out that makes sense? Hence my theory that we could see the end of the unlimited streaming plan. If an actor has to get paid PER STREAM, that could make the streaming services go bankrupt (most of them are burning cash as it is, I think WBD just turned a profit and Netflix turns a profit, but WBD is due to major cuts in programming).
As to your comment that we will see more crappy reality programming, I have no doubt. The last Writers Strike was the time I watched less TV or simply streamed more as reality programming does absolutely nothing for me. I also don't watch a lot of sports, so scripted programming is about all I do watch, and MOST of that is already on streaming. I suspect I will spend the fall catching up on shows I have in my backlog, although I will certainly miss new seasons of some of my favorite shows (streaming, broadcast, and cable). I think there is a huge "elephant in the room" that nobody is talking about, in that we the consumer have more choice than ever before, and the era of "peak TV" is behind us until there is another shift that causes studios to compete for eyeballs again like the shift to streaming. And as someone who enjoyed some of the great programming that came of this recent era, that makes me sad.
I've been reading in this thread and others that people aren't going to theaters anymore. But today Variety is reporting historic attendance figures at movie theaters thanks to Barbie and Oppenheimer:
variety.com
Perhaps the lack of original material on TV due to the strike has caused people to go to theaters.
Box Office: ‘Barbie’ Opens to Record-Setting $155 Million, ‘Oppenheimer’ Shatters Expectations With $80 Million Debut
"Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" shattered expectations, fueling the fourth-biggest box office weekend in history.
variety.com
Perhaps the lack of original material on TV due to the strike has caused people to go to theaters.
These stories need to prominently account for inflation adjustments to have value as comparisons. That’s not to say those two films didn’t do well, but let’s try to compare apples to apples once in a while.
That aside, two big films in one summer weekend does not make a sudden reversal, nor can it necessarily be attributed to a strike, seeing as summer has long been exactly what we see this summer—a blend of reruns, reality and games and the occasional burn off (oh hi, Wonder Years season 2). Fall…that’s when we see a meaningful impact in the rhythm of TV viewership.
That aside, two big films in one summer weekend does not make a sudden reversal, nor can it necessarily be attributed to a strike, seeing as summer has long been exactly what we see this summer—a blend of reruns, reality and games and the occasional burn off (oh hi, Wonder Years season 2). Fall…that’s when we see a meaningful impact in the rhythm of TV viewership.
Summer has nearly no original material.
whiles others have said with late night being in reruns they had no place to plug movies
Instead they're doing the morning news shows. I saw a lot of movie promo on Today and GMA. Not so much with actors, but with directors and producers.
How many major studio releases are already "in the can" but still waiting to premiere? When will theaters begin to feel the impact of the strike?
Or as NPR called it, "Barbenheimer". It seemed strange to put two vastly different movies together, because who would expect people to go to both?I've been reading in this thread and others that people aren't going to theaters anymore. But today Variety is reporting historic attendance figures at movie theaters thanks to Barbie and Oppenheimer:
Box Office: ‘Barbie’ Opens to Record-Setting $155 Million, ‘Oppenheimer’ Shatters Expectations With $80 Million Debut
"Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" shattered expectations, fueling the fourth-biggest box office weekend in history.
The networks should take advantage of this and broadcast movies.
"Barbie" will likely become a franchise, but where do you go from "Oppenheimer"?
Live with Kelly and Mark still have guests appealing on their show. But I heard they can't promote their new movies or shows during the strike so I don't know what they would be talking about.
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