Signal prediction is based on statistics. When there is only a .0001 percent chance of something happening, it won't happen all the time. The other thing you have to consider is the inverse field. You can build antennas, like Beverage antennas and multibay phased yagis and dish reflectors which can bring an otherwise undetectable signal up to a detectable level. But when you hear things on barefoot stock radios all the time when they are supposedly using extremely low power, it is suspicious. If you understand statistics and apply it to hard science and by extension engineering, you make judgments about whether it is believable.
I have called radio stations and told them that I was receiving their stations and they didn't believe me. But I was using very sophisticated antennas and tuners, and I didn't hear it every day. What used to be DX when FM stations were operating at 1-10 kW from 150-250 foot AM towers, is no longer unusual when the stations went to 50 kW from 500 feet. The more sophisticated your antenna and tuner, the more stations that are regulars heard daily.
I have called radio stations and told them that I was receiving their stations and they didn't believe me. But I was using very sophisticated antennas and tuners, and I didn't hear it every day. What used to be DX when FM stations were operating at 1-10 kW from 150-250 foot AM towers, is no longer unusual when the stations went to 50 kW from 500 feet. The more sophisticated your antenna and tuner, the more stations that are regulars heard daily.
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