Buffalo August '21 book

[davideduardo]

David, can you try to explain the weighting process after the raw quarter hours are sent to me? I honestly cannot figure it out.

Let's use 25-54 and 55+ for an example.

Let's say 25-54 is 40% of the market. 55+ is 30% (the rest is under age 25). But the total diaries that come in are 30% 25-54 and 40% 55+ because the seniors are more diligent in returning the filled in books.

So, there are too many 55+ diaries. The raw tabulation shows shares that are 33% too high in 55+ and 25% too low in 25-54. So Nielsen weighs up the 25-54 diaries and weighs down the 55+ so that the two groups are proportional to the population.

The "raw" numbers, based on too many 55+ diaries, show WECK higher than when the two age groups are balanced.

If you like, think of "weighting" like handicapping in golf. It's an adjustment to make each part of the total fair and balanced when, in fact, they are not.

 

[davideduardo]

From what I have read and heard from experienced programmers and consultants, weighting is not as complex as some make it out to be. For example, using round numbers, if the population for 55-64 Men is 2,000, each diary accounts for a percentage of that 2,000. Let's say 100 diaries are sent out to 55-64 year old Men. Each diary has a value of 1, which represents 20 listeners in that specific demo. But if only 80 diaries are returned, each diary is "weighted up." Each of the 80 returned diaries representing 55-64 year old Men will have a value of 1.25 in that demo and that demo only.
As such, each diary now represents 25 listeners (80 x 25 = 2,000.)

That is perfectly stated.

When you do this for each smaller age group, gender, location, income and education level, there is a lot of mathematical balancing done on a sample which is never 100% perfect due to the way folks behave.

For example, what if the last two weeks of the Winter (Jan to March) period has a blizzard and we find many older people don't go out to mail their diaries on time. The ones that did get them back in the other 10 weeks are going to be weighted up so that the sample has a mathematically proportional number of 55+.

We even do this in a music test. Let's say we want half men and half women, but the folks that participate are 60% women. So we reduce the value of each woman and increase the value of each man so that the results are as if both groups were equally sampled.

The best example I know comes from an old 60's movie about the Roman Empire. Two slaves had to carry stones from a quarry to a destination. One of them was weak, and might have been whipped or worse. But his strong friend carried two of his stones, so that one carried four more than the other. They deposited the loads together, and the slave master saw the "right amount" being brought out of the quarry.

Now, that is truly "weighting".

 

[stanley]

I think these are just wobbles in the book. I receive the monthly quarter hour listening every month about 2 days before the actual ratings come out.

I think there may be a WBFO problem, but I think this is a wobble for WBEN. In the numbers I get 2 days prior, WBEN was #1 in actual quarter hour listening. In fact WECK was #7. These reports I get called “ insights” are based upon the actual diary reported quarter hours. No voodoo math.

The voodoo happens the day before the monthly book comes out, then all of the sudden WBEN looks terrible and WECK is #9 where in the quarter hours just days before, this was not the case for either station.

Poster Dave seems to know a lot about the Nielsen methodology. I don’t. I just see what I see, and every single month I physically add the averages of all stations. For instance , in quarter hour listening, WECK had a 4.0 share. When the book came out 2 days later we had a 3.3 share.

The same thing with EDG AND BREEZE. When I added up quarter hours, both stations had below a 3 share, then the book comes out and they have a 3 .3 share.

I still don’t understand the weighting issue. My Nielsen rep has been kind enough to try to explain it, but it goes right over my head. All I know is it does not seem to benefit 50 plus at all. It hurts.

David, can you try to explain the weighting process after the raw quarter hours are sent to me? I honestly cannot figure it out.

who is programming WECK? one minute you are playing disco, then a classic rock cut, then a 50's song. Roger Christian sounds bored to tears. All he says is "their biggest hit" so he has something to say. he says"their biggest hit" when he is playing a one hit wonder as if the band actually charted another song. Is that how he got into the hall of fame?

 

[tbolt909]

who is programming WECK? one minute you are playing disco, then a classic rock cut, then a 50's song. Roger Christian sounds bored to tears. All he says is "their biggest hit" so he has something to say. he says"their biggest hit" when he is playing a one hit wonder as if the band actually charted another song. Is that how he got into the hall of fame?

Train WECK segues? Guess it's hard to fake excitement about playing Spiral Starecase for the millionth time. Looking at the online playlist, I don't see much Disco or Classic Rock. It's just the normal stuff most Oldies stations play...

 

[stanley]

Train WECK segues? Guess it's hard to fake excitement about playing Spiral Starecase for the millionth time. Looking at the online playlist, I don't see much Disco or Classic Rock. It's just the normal stuff most Oldies stations play...

One week there's disco and Fleetwood Mac, next week it's gone. Very inconsistent and the Playlist is way to small. Ruins the TSL. The P1 listeners are retired and could listen alot longer if the pd played more titles and artists. Locally-owned and operated but programmed like corporate. What's the local advantage then ?

 

[tbolt909]

One week there's disco and Fleetwood Mac, next week it's gone. Very inconsistent and the Playlist is way to small. Ruins the TSL. The P1 listeners are retired and could listen alot longer if the pd played more titles and artists. Locally-owned and operated but programmed like corporate. What's the local advantage then ?

Whenever a listener complains about repetitive playlists, the response is "Thank you Sir, but you're listening TOO MUCH".
This is where David E. will jump in. Retired folks are essentially dead to advertisers anyway.

People who really like a wide variety of music aren't going to be satisfied with Radio. Just like McDonald's isn't an exciting meal. It fills you up if you can keep it down...

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Whenever a listener complains about repetitive playlists, the response is "Thank you Sir, but you're listening TOO MUCH".
This is where David E. will jump in. Retired folks are essentially dead to advertisers anyway.

Nah. Nah, they're not. Man, we've hashed out this debate topic for years on this board. You don't like WECK, 97, WYRK or WBUF? Nobody has a loaded gun to your head. Change the station.

Listeners want to hear the hits. Especially Classic Hits, Classic Rock and Oldies listeners. Wanna know why Spiral Starecase gets played a lot on an Oldies format? It's because Oldies listeners like that song. It's not a hard concept to understand.

Some folks like deep cuts and B-sides, but radio stations can't make a living playing those tracks because they don't appeal to the majority of listeners. Sure, a featured B-side or deep cut is cool, but the B-side or deep cut that I like may not have the same appeal to you or other B-side and deep cut fans... "I can't believe you like that track, it's the worst one on the album!"

New music fans are incredibly polarized. They'll tell researchers they want "more new music on the radio," but what they really want is more new music that they like. How do you make money running a radio station (it is, after all, a business) playing music that's so diverse it turns off half the people in your target demo?

 

[davideduardo]

Whenever a listener complains about repetitive playlists, the response is "Thank you Sir, but you're listening TOO MUCH".
This is where David E. will jump in.

Playlists are defined, at larger stations with the budget for it, by what researches. I don't know any station that would say, "you listen too much" but such a listener might be told that "those are the songs most listeners want to hear the most."

Retired folks are essentially dead to advertisers anyway.

Retired folks are not "dead to advertisers". While most national accounts don't buy against 55+, plenty of local accounts do and find the group excellent for local retailers and service providers.

People who really like a wide variety of music aren't going to be satisfied with Radio. Just like McDonald's isn't an exciting meal. It fills you up if you can keep it down...

And that is why a small percentage of people don't use radio. It's always been that way.

I like a wide, wide variety of music... some types or genres you likely have never even heard of. But there are certain styles that are done on the radio in a very pleasing manner and I don't expect stations to play some of the genres that I most enjoy.

 

[tbolt909]

Playlists are defined, at larger stations with the budget for it, by what researches. I don't know any station that would say, "you listen too much" but such a listener might be told that "those are the songs most listeners want to hear the most."

Retired folks are not "dead to advertisers". While most national accounts don't buy against 55+, plenty of local accounts do and find the group excellent for local retailers and service providers.

You and Rusty did not address Stanley's question. He is the WECK listener who complained. A station manager may not tell a listener outright "You listen too much", but that's the gist. The average person may only listen an hour or less a day.

Of course, Radio is a business. Just playing the hits does not guarantee success. I can find many examples of failed formats. They have recycled the same ideas for years. They also make futile attempts to tweak stations (JOY to MIX to BREEZE). Playing it safe isn't always a winning formula...

 

[four4rock]

Not entirely certain that my comments that follow precisely fit this discussion, but...

As in most things, one cannot be all things to all people. Hence, no single radio station is gonna make everyone happy. On the other hand hyper-granularity is, IMO, self-defeating in that it is intentionally seeking far too narrow a draw.

It seems to me that radio (in general) has skewed far to close to the hyper-granular end of the spectrum. And I believe it is aiding in the "turn-off".

I'm not a radio programmer, so I cannot be certain exactly where the balance point is... and it seems to me that there is no shortage of actual programmers that don't either.

 

[topsound]

A smart guy once told me, "You can play a thousand songs on an Oldies station, but some you play every day and some you play once a year." That approach worked for me for about a decade and a half.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

One week there's disco and Fleetwood Mac, next week it's gone. Very inconsistent and the Playlist is way to small. Ruins the TSL. The P1 listeners are retired and could listen alot longer if the pd played more titles and artists. Locally-owned and operated but programmed like corporate. What's the local advantage then ?

Oldies and to some extent Classic Hits, are unique formats in that they're song-based, rather than artist/group based such as Classic Rock, Active Rock and Alternative (although to a lesser extent) often tend to be.

To specifically address Oldies, "hits are hits" ... which (for example) is why Night Fever by the Bee Gees can be followed by Touch Me, followed by Smoke From A Distant Fire, which might be followed by How Sweet Is To Be Loved By You. That's how it was in Top 40 radio through the 50s, 60s, 70s and the early 80s, until the time when music became hyper polarized by the anti-disco push back and Album Rock's move toward rock based, guitar-wars groups. That same polarization and silo-effect in music and listener taste exists today, but not in the Oldies format, because ... "hits are hits."

 

[davideduardo]

You and Rusty did not address Stanley's question. He is the WECK listener who complained. A station manager may not tell a listener outright "You listen too much", but that's the gist. The average person may only listen an hour or less a day.

There are different levels of listening. Some people only listen for one or two short moments in the day, such as a 20 minute commute or when getting breakfast or the like. Some listen all day. Others only listen a few times a week. Stations program for the medium and heavy listeners, but the mediums are what drives stations. So rotations are based on a combination of how many songs in total tested well and how we can schedule songs so they play in different dayparts and hours before playing again in the same hour.

Each format has different mechanics, so there is no one answer to your question; that's why you don't get an "answer" but a "situational analysis". The listener, if given any explanation, will be told that most listeners want to hear the songs that often, and "we're sorry it's too often for you".

That said, in my years in radio and at a lot of high repetition (every 90 minutes at some) formats, I've never really been told "you play the songs too often". The closest that comes to that is when a listener complains about hearing songs they don't like too often. You generally can't play favorite songs too often unless you repeat one back to back, over and over.

I know of a station that was classic hits / oldies about 15 years ago in a very big market. They would occasionally take one of the high research songs and play it twice in a row. They called it something like "double barrel" and it occurred at random and they talked it up and had a special sweeper. The jocks said that when they did appearances, it was frequently mentioned as an "I love when you play one of my favorite songs over again!"

You get negatives when repeated songs are not liked by some / all listeners.

Of course, Radio is a business. Just playing the hits does not guarantee success. I can find many examples of failed formats. They have recycled the same ideas for years. They also make futile attempts to tweak stations (JOY to MIX to BREEZE). Playing it safe isn't always a winning formula...

But if you try to count the number of "new" formats in the last 60 years, you barely get into double digits. Everything is a progression, refinement or modification of something already done. Example: AC was known in the early 70's as "chicken rock" and it was just a modification of Top 40 without the hard stuff and the teen stuff.

In every field, from laundry detergents to frozen foods, there are new product launches that fail. About 60% or so of all new consumer products do not make it through the first year or two. And those that are launched went through extensive research.

If it were possible to research success perfectly, every song released would be a hit and there would be no stiffs. There is a high degree of uncertainty in any new product launch, whether it is a song, an electronic device, home goods or consumer products... or formats.

 

[SirRoxalot]

I'm still waiting for "tbolt" to present his killer format for consideration. C'mon, there are plenty of places on the internet where you can create your own station and show us your stuff. There are plenty of stations looking for innovators with a magic bullet.

 

[tbolt909]

A smart guy once told me, "You can play a thousand songs on an Oldies station, but some you play every day and some you play once a year." That approach worked for me for about a decade and a half.

The difference now is that Oldies are 50 to 60 years old. Time has blurred the line. It doesn't really matter if a song is from 1966 or 1975 or 1986. Some bands are timeless like The Beatles.

A lot of great music from many eras is ignored by Radio. The late 80s - early 90s Alternative wave is just one. The Cure, Smiths, Crowded House, 10,000 Maniacs, and countless others are not on commercial Radio. I'm not talking about obscure artists...

 

[TheBigA]

The late 80s - early 90s Alternative wave is just one. The Cure, Smiths, Crowded House, 10,000 Maniacs, and countless others are not on commercial Radio.

Huh? What stations do you listen to? "Don't Dream It's Over" is by far one of the most played power golds on the radio now. But not on alternative radio. The song was a huge hit in the 80s, so you'll hear it now on Classic Hits or even Adult Hits stations. Same with These Are The Days.

 

[tbolt909]

Huh? What stations do you listen to? "Don't Dream It's Over" is by far one of the most played power golds on the radio now. But not on alternative radio. The song was a huge hit in the 80s, so you'll hear it now on Classic Hits or even Adult Hits stations. Same with These Are The Days.

Is anyone playing songs from the new Crowded House album that came out in June? That's just one example.

The current "Alternative" formats are not exactly thriving. The heritage artists like Elvis Costello, Clash, Joe Jackson and countless others that I could mention are not on radio playlists. A quality mix of older and new material is not attempted. My point is that it is possible to put out a better product and get better results...

 

[TheBigA]

Is anyone playing songs from the new Crowded House album that came out in June? That's just one example.

You like AAA. That's where current music by "heritage" acts get played. That's where you can hear recent songs by Elvis Costello.

You can see how well AAA stations do compared to other formats. Heritage music means heritage audience. The average age of a AAA listener is 65.

You're not going to hear the new album by Alan Jackson or George Strait on current country stations, or even classic country stations. It's nothing new. George Jones was pissed off that his new music wasn't getting played in the 90s. By then, his active career was over. If he was alive and making music today, he'd get airplay on Americana stations.

 

[tbolt909]

You can see how well AAA stations do compared to other formats. Heritage music means heritage audience. The average age of a AAA listener is 65.

Hard to tell because not many AAA stations exist. They would certainly do better than what passes for Alternative these days. Someone who was 18 in 1990 is still in the "Saleable" demos. They grew up on the music I mentioned. It's ridiculous to say that Classic Rock appeals to 40 year olds, but 90s music doesn't...

 

[TheBigA]

Hard to tell because not many AAA stations exist.

But you can't say certain things aren't getting played, because they are. You have to look for them. All of these stations stream, no matter where they are. There are no limits to the radio dial any more. But now the responsibility is on you to seek out the music you want, and maybe even become a member of a station that plays what you want.