100.3 To Become ....

[radioresearcher]

This seems risky to me. The market is way too ethnic. If they wanted to go this route, it should've been slightly more contemporary and much more hit driven.

It's familiarity quotient seems to be about the same as KSCA and "Channel" ... and neither of those could make a dent.

They're not the first ones to go "white" in recent times. KBIG went quite a bit whiter and to a much lesser extent you could argue KYSR is whiter now too.

PPM is a cume based measurement system. This is a TSL based format.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Channel 103.1 already used "World Class Rock" as their positioning statement in this market and it was never a success.
Where is Nicole Sandler these days? Last was New Mexico?
IF this is the format it's DOA. This is Los Angeles, Mexico not Seattle.

Glenn (and David E. who will make the same claim),
There were SO MANY things wrong with 101.9's and 103.1's approach to WCR (world class rock) - too calm, too safe, too bland, etc. WCR as done by KPRI will fail in LA. WCR as done by WXRT will have a chance. If 100.3 settles in on the tried and true U2, Police, Dave Matthews, Sheryl Crow, Rolling Stones, etc. rotation, then yes it will be DOA. But if 100.3 jumps on Spoon, Jason Mraz, Sara Bareilles, Death Cab for Cutie, Yael Naim, Mike Doughty, etc. it will be viewed as a leader, and will inspire listeners to check back in to the middle of the dial to be sure to be the first to know what's new.

Message to Bonneville - this is LA. We love music, we respect music, so keep working hard to introduce us to music. Your frequency was once home to KIQQ, a very aggressive CHR that worked hard to find what's next and new. Keep to that effort. Don't be afraid to have multiple new adds each week. Most AAAs seem to only add a track a week at best.

Great analysis David.
Just b/c a market has a lot of Hispanics doesnt mean Rock won't work. San Antonio and El Paso have proven that long ago, as has 106.7 K-Rock.
Enjoy the new World Class Rock station guys

How many generations have the families of those Hispanics been in those markets? There is quite a difference in L.A. which has many more new immigrants (both legal and illegal and not only Latino).

Many San Antonio Hispanics will deny they are Latino and claim they are white. Anyone who wants to challenge that statement, I've got plenty of Latino friends who live there.

This station is DOA unless KLOS flips. Too many stations doing some form of rock in Los Angeles right now.

 

[davideduardo]

Many San Antonio Hispanics will deny they are Latino and claim they are white. Anyone who wants to challenge that statement, I've got plenty of Latino friends who live there.

This station is DOA unless KLOS flips. Too many stations doing some form of rock in Los Angeles right now.

I hate to break with a long tradition and agree with Glenn, but he is very right here.

In markets where large percentages of Hispanics listen to rock, you find high degrees of assimilation. In San Antonio, about 20% of Hispanics are Spanish dominant (average over several years of Arbitron data) while in LA 66% are Spanish dominant. In Albuquerque, about 16% of Hispanics are Spanish dominant.

The market is only about 25% non-ethnic or non-immigrant. The rest are Hispanic, Asian, Black and immigrants (mostly central Europe, Persia and Arab) who are non-users or very very light users of an "utraamercian" format like AAA.

The only pseudosmart thing they have done is to target a 35+ audience segment, which is less ethnic than the under-35. But the English station traffic jam of over-35 stations is pretty severe. As Glen says, it would take KLOS moving away and 103.3 being a pretty mainstream, familiar station without the "Americana" slant some AAAs take.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Channel 103.1 already used "World Class Rock" as their positioning statement in this market and it was never a success.
Where is Nicole Sandler these days? Last was New Mexico?
IF this is the format it's DOA. This is Los Angeles, Mexico not Seattle.

Glenn (and David E. who will make the same claim),
There were SO MANY things wrong with 101.9's and 103.1's approach to WCR (world class rock) - too calm, too safe, too bland, etc. WCR as done by KPRI will fail in LA. WCR as done by WXRT will have a chance. If 100.3 settles in on the tried and true U2, Police, Dave Matthews, Sheryl Crow, Rolling Stones, etc. rotation, then yes it will be DOA. But if 100.3 jumps on Spoon, Jason Mraz, Sara Bareilles, Death Cab for Cutie, Yael Naim, Mike Doughty, etc. it will be viewed as a leader, and will inspire listeners to check back in to the middle of the dial to be sure to be the first to know what's new.

Message to Bonneville - this is LA. We love music, we respect music, so keep working hard to introduce us to music. Your frequency was once home to KIQQ, a very aggressive CHR that worked hard to find what's next and new. Keep to that effort. Don't be afraid to have multiple new adds each week. Most AAAs seem to only add a track a week at best.

KIQQ was 25+ years ago, stick not on Mt. Wilson then, and was never a great top 40 radio station - nor did it have great ratings - under the time you are posting about (Thanks! 100 FM KIQQ). Only the jocks, such as Bruce Chandler and Jay Coffey, held that place together (and not G. "Double Ya" McCoy or their infamous receptionist Miranda, the worst on-air d.j. in the HISTORY of Los Angeles radio). Once KIIS went back to Top 40 in late 1982, KIQQ was history.

The former AAA/rock in this town, Channel 103.1, 101.9 (KMPC-FM, KSCA) didn't do cr*p in the ratings. Los Angeles was LESS ethnic then. How do you think it is going to fare now? And the sound of KNX-FM can't be revived. FAILURE is all that is in store for this format (unless KLOS flips).

The only place this format has a chance to do decent is in (white) Southern Orange County. 100.3's signal is spotty there. So it's DOA.

At best this format belongs on the HD-2 side of some station. About the only people who would buy an HD radio are the ones who would listen to this format in L.A. anyway.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Re: This makes PERFECT sense!

This makes perfect sense for so many reasons. First, it's 100% compatible with the Bonneville philosophy.

Second, despite what some say here, there IS a void for this kind of station here in LA. Eight years ago, Channel 103.1 was billing a million dollars a month with a .7 share, on two anemic class A neutered signals. That's two million more then V-100 billed last year.

The format is cheap to do and can be automated/voicetracked easily. Channel used to shut the door at 6 PM of Friday afternoon and run VT all weekend.

Next, the audience has grown since 103.1 got out of the format. They went away almost 8 years ago. That means their core audience is 8 years older now-more people interested in the AAA format. It's also mainly 30-60, 100% baby boomers and a real MONEY demo! Channel's car ads used to be for BMWs and Mercades Benz, not Toyotas.

If they program and PROMOTE this properly (Channel 103.1's only promotion was on the front of Big Blue Busses), it can do a 2-3 share. It can bill better then two million a month. Do the math. They paid 137 million...that means their debt service is about 14 million a year. There's no way their other expenses will be ten million dollars. They will likely be less that half that. That means a tidy profit of 5-6 million dollars a year.

Then, next year they buy 93.9, combine many of the housekeeping functions and make even MORE money!

It's a win win all around...for Bonneville, for Los Angeles and for the listeners who love AAA music.

The problem with your analysis is that many of those who were the small mostly white audience of Channel 103.1 have moved OUT of Los Angeles while an ethnic population has moved in. Even if they moved to the OC (or were living near the Newport Beach 103.1 transmitter then), they're now in Southern O.C. where 100.3's signal is poor or in other outlaying areas such as Ventura Co..

Channel 103.1 was also used as a bonus for buying KIIS so your million $ a month figure isn't acurate.

 

[LA_Guy]

I worked there...

I worked there, and I can tell you it's COMPLETELY accurate!!

 

[davideduardo]

Re: This makes PERFECT sense!

Next, the audience has grown since 103.1 got out of the format. They went away almost 8 years ago. That means their core audience is 8 years older now-more people interested in the AAA format. It's also mainly 30-60, 100% baby boomers and a real MONEY demo! Channel's car ads used to be for BMWs and Mercades Benz, not Toyotas.

The audience has not grown. The music has not been exposed to new listeners. And the "Other" demo in LA has only grown due to the increase in Asian population. In 1998, 35-65 "Other" (everything but Hispanic and Black) has moved from 2.65 million to 3.1 million; all this growth is in Eastern European immigrants and Asians so the non-Hispanic white population has likely decreased signficantly.

If they program and PROMOTE this properly (Channel 103.1's only promotion was on the front of Big Blue Busses), it can do a 2-3 share.

There is not a big enough base to het a 2. It's relatively simple math.

It can bill better then two million a month. Do the math.

They will be lucky to hit $20 million.

They paid 137 million...that means their debt service is about 14 million a year.

I would bet they generated the purchase price internally.

There's no way their other expenses will be ten million dollars. They will likely be less that half that. That means a tidy profit of 5-6 million dollars a year.

That's a profit of about 4%. They could get more with California MUNYs, with no risk.

Then, next year they buy 93.9, combine many of the housekeeping functions and make even MORE money!

Having run a 9 station cluster in the late 60's, I can say that there are scant few savings in a cluster. This is one of the things that motivated consolidation, and proved to be far less true than expected. The main reason for market level clustering is to stabilize and spread wobbles and ups and downs over multiple stations as opposed to the total exposure of a single one.

 

[airpab]

One year from now, we'll all be talking about how The Sound has pulled no better than a 2...and more likely, a 1.5 or less.

This was yet another huge mistake made with a valuable Mt. Wilson stick! What is it with the 100.3 frequency in L.A. ? No one seems to be able to make it work?

Unfortunately, Bonneville is in for a good old-fashioned and expensive L.A. ass-kicking! It's too bad, they're a good group of folks!

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

One year from now, we'll all be talking about how The Sound has pulled no better than a 2...and more likely, a 1.5 or less.

This was yet another huge mistake made with a valuable Mt. Wilson stick! What is it with the 100.3 frequency in L.A. ? No one seems to be able to make it work?

Unfortunately, Bonneville is in for a good old-fashioned L.A. ass-kicking! It's too bad, they're a good group of folks!

It did well when Steve Harvey was at 100.3 The Beat.

Did decent eons ago as K-100.

Question is who, if anyone, will it impact? KLOS? I don't see any one station taking a hit from it but I don't see it being a hit either.

 

[airpab]

A heart-felt letter to Bonneville from KOST and KIIS


THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR MAKING LIFE SO EASY AND PROFITABLE FOR US. BEST OF LUCK !

 

[davideduardo]

There were SO MANY things wrong with 101.9's and 103.1's approach to WCR (world class rock) - too calm, too safe, too bland, etc.

However, a market forgives rough edges in a niche format like this if there is nothing remotely similar. This is a 1.2 rsnge format... maybe increasing if the familiarity is increased, the playlist less deep and the obscure stuff nuked. That is what their web page says, so if they can do it it could be a diary 1.8... but in PPM, it's hopeless.

KSCA was, in its AAA days, a low cumer with bigger TSL. That will not work with the PPM 6 months away. The PPM collapses TSL for everyone, but favors large cume stations.

Don't be afraid to have multiple new adds each week. Most AAAs seem to only add a track a week at best.

That is one of the things they should avoid doing for at least the first half-year or more. Formats that appeal to a median age of about 46 don't do many currents without courting death.

 

[romer979fm]

At 1 AM, the legal i.d. aired right smack dab in the middle of a song. They dumped out of the song, ran the legal, then rejoined the song in progress. I wouldn't have put something this unprofessional on in a small market like Lompoc even if it is a stunt.

ever actually flipped a station?
stuff happens...Lompoc...LA...wherever.

if glitches are still occuring 12 hours after the real format launches...that's a big problem

 

[kentuckymedia]

This station will be OKAY. Please, trust Bonneville!

 

[SuperRadioFan]

Glenn and David Eduardo, your predictions and opinions are accurate, even if I don't like them. However, you are both wrong about the 100.3 FM signal. Gentlemen, I f**king LIVE in South Orange County (Mission Viejo) and the signal is NOT a problem. You DON'T f**king live here, but I DO!

The station will do better than that other big loser KMVN and my guess is will pull 1.0 - 1.2. Don't know what Bonneville will eventually do with it in future years, but for now I am pleased that SOME station is trying this format again. If they go away they go away. Before and during this station I can still get my AAA fix from stations like Radio Paradise.com, WOXY.com (not really AAA more Indie), WXPK stream (White Plains NY "New York's Backyard").

Since 10 am they have played a pretty mainstream safe playlist with a few "Deep" and "obscure cuts" thrown in, not enough for my taste but I understand why its going to be this way for a while. Those "obscure" cuts I am familiar with as would be any AAA fan who goes out of his or her way to find the station/music that's in this genre. Right now I am hearing a song I've heard for quite a while by listening to WXPK... "Believe" by The Bravery.

Like I said I will enjoy this and I (along with my friend David @ USC and other AAA fans) will spread the word to the people who used to listen to FM 101.9 and Channel 103.1. Not everyone listens to AC or CHR regularly. Yeh we are in a teeny tiny minority. But I believe we should be served like just as classical music fans are served by KUSC, jazz fans are served by K-JAZZ, country fans are served by KKGO, and oldies fans are served by KRTH. 1.0 or 0.8 is still better than 0.0.

 

[davideduardo]

Glenn and David Eduardo, your predictions and opinions are accurate, even if I don't like them. However, you are both wrong about the 100.3 FM signal. Gentlemen, I f**king LIVE in South Orange County (Mission Viejo) and the signal is NOT a problem. You DON'T f**king live here, but I DO!

Glen was the one with the OC issue. I simply stated that another poster was wrong in claiming the 100.3 signal was signficantly better than 101.9, where AAA failed a decade ago.

The fact is that 100.3 and 101.9 do not have 70 dbu signals in southern OC, making reception more of a "where you live" issue there than in stronger signal areas.

1.0 or 0.8 is still better than 0.0.

But... likely not enough to satisfy the new owners.

 

[SuperRadioFan]

Glenn and David Eduardo ... you are both wrong about the 100.3 FM signal. ... I LIVE in South Orange County (Mission Viejo) and the signal is NOT a problem.

Glen was the one with the OC issue. I simply stated that another poster was wrong in claiming the 100.3 signal was signficantly better than 101.9, where AAA failed a decade ago.

The fact is that 100.3 and 101.9 do not have 70 dbu signals in southern OC, making reception more of a "where you live" issue there than in stronger signal areas.

It's the second from the worst Wilson signal, and has pretty spotty OC coverage beyond Irvine, so it is not great but might be adequate. On FM, there is no proof that position on the dial means anything.

I guess the quote above was made by an imposter, David

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

At 1 AM, the legal i.d. aired right smack dab in the middle of a song. They dumped out of the song, ran the legal, then rejoined the song in progress. I wouldn't have put something this unprofessional on in a small market like Lompoc even if it is a stunt.

ever actually flipped a station?
stuff happens...Lompoc...LA...wherever.

if glitches are still occuring 12 hours after the real format launches...that's a big problem

I've been at very "professional" flips where we walked in the door and changed the format, thank you. They never "sounded' like we were just playing an ipod on the air like this was done.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Glenn and David Eduardo, your predictions and opinions are accurate, even if I don't like them. However, you are both wrong about the 100.3 FM signal. Gentlemen, I f**king LIVE in South Orange County (Mission Viejo) and the signal is NOT a problem. You DON'T f**king live here, but I DO!

The station will do better than that other big loser KMVN and my guess is will pull 1.0 - 1.2. Don't know what Bonneville will eventually do with it in future years, but for now I am pleased that SOME station is trying this format again. If they go away they go away. Before and during this station I can still get my AAA fix from stations like Radio Paradise.com, WOXY.com (not really AAA more Indie), WXPK stream (White Plains NY "New York's Backyard").

Since 10 am they have played a pretty mainstream safe playlist with a few "Deep" and "obscure cuts" thrown in, not enough for my taste but I understand why its going to be this way for a while. Those "obscure" cuts I am familiar with as would be any AAA fan who goes out of his or her way to find the station/music that's in this genre. Right now I am hearing a song I've heard for quite a while by listening to WXPK... "Believe" by The Bravery.

Like I said I will enjoy this and I (along with my friend David @ USC and other AAA fans) will spread the word to the people who used to listen to FM 101.9 and Channel 103.1. Not everyone listens to AC or CHR regularly. Yeh we are in a teeny tiny minority. But I believe we should be served like just as classical music fans are served by KUSC, jazz fans are served by K-JAZZ, country fans are served by KKGO, and oldies fans are served by KRTH. 1.0 or 0.8 is still better than 0.0.

Another day, another loser format for Los Angeles. What's new?

I have friends who live in Southern O.C.. They have a difficult time tuning in 100.3 at their homes and offices. They get San Diego radio better than 100.3.

If you think they'll only get in the low 1's, which I expect is generous, then they should have kept it V100.

Unless KLOS departs the scene, it's 12+ will hover around a 1, give or take a few tenths.

It'll give them time to research and plan the market for their next format, News/Talk.

This format belongs on HD-2 and nowhere else.

Movin. I was right about that one from the get-go.

Only format hole on FM is News/Talk. Emmis should pick up all the KLAA cast-offs and put it on 93.9 or Salem should flip AM 870 over to 99.5 and put the Christian teaching format on AM.

 

[davideduardo]

It's the second from the worst Wilson signal, and has pretty spotty OC coverage beyond Irvine, so it is not great but might be adequate. On FM, there is no proof that position on the dial means anything.


I guess the quote above was made by an imposter, David

That does not indicate you can not hear it... "Spotty" means that the reception will be chancy... if you are in a shadowed area, which abound in southern OC, the reception may not be possible. That is also true for most of the Wilson signals that far away from the transmitter.

A Langly-Rice plot proves this; the signal is fine in some places, although below a 70 dbu (the 70 on 100.3 only gets to Santa Ana) so not strong.

In general, in metros, about 80% of diary entries for at home or work listening are in the 70 dbu contour and another 15% are inside the 64 dbu. The KRBV 60 hits just north of Laguna Beach, so it only misses a tiny bit of the county where the least population lives.

 

[romer979fm]

I've been at very "professional" flips where we walked in the door and changed the format, thank you. They never "sounded' like we were just playing an ipod on the air like this was done.

just curious: sounded like you were grasping for something about the 100.3 to complain about.
agreed, best-case scenario is for a seamless change...never been thru one w/o some problems, tho
(last one was back in 1987...still using carts and CDs)